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COVID-19: Vaccine and testing procedures Megathread Part 3 - Read OP

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Comments

  • Site Banned Posts: 85 ✭✭jackryan34


    DaSilva wrote: »
    In fact what it might be saying is that natural immunity is better than the trial suggested.

    That is very good news then

    We are 15 months into this mess and re-infections are still very rare, the variants are so dangerous then?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,132 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    DaSilva wrote: »
    No I don't think it really changes the efficacy results of the vaccine trial, it just effects the observation they made where they seemed to notice that people were getting infected with the new variant regardless of their previous infection status, now it seems like that observation might have been muddied by those tests not being very accurate in some groups of people. In fact what it might be saying is that natural immunity is better than the trial suggested.
    I admire your efforts in decoding it! There was survey of academics I recall about reading research papers. The word impenetrable emerged as a comment on a lot of them. Concise and precise are great qualities in writing but the key factor is comprehensibility. That tweet has words but has no meaning to anyone except a very select few.


  • Site Banned Posts: 85 ✭✭jackryan34


    is_that_so wrote: »
    I admire your efforts in decoding it! There was survey of academics I recall about reading research papers. The word impenetrable emerged as a comment on a lot of them. Concise and precise are great qualities in writing but the key factor is comprehensibility. That tweet has words has no meaning to anyone except a very select few.

    It's kind of why peer review stuff is very flawed, I have been on peer review projects and most wouldn't have a clue what they are reading :pac:


  • Posts: 543 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    jackryan34 wrote: »
    Give me a bit room here, it wasn't intelligence that got me this far.

    Antibody tests don't work well on Africans?

    They work well on Europeans and Americans, yeah ok, hmmm

    Because of that the Novavax vaccine is now a very good vaccine and works well against SA variant

    Okay. I'll try again. The trial showed that people who previously had Covid and those who didn't were infected with the South African variant at the same rate. This suggested that prior infection offered no protection from the reinfection with the variant. This new study suggests that the tests Novavax used to check for antibodies from past infection are significantly less accurate in African samples. It means they possibly overestimated the number of participants who previously had Covid. This means their findings may be inaccurate and that prior infection does offer some protection.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,132 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Hardyn wrote: »
    Okay. I'll try again. The trial showed that people who previously had Covid and those who didn't were infected with the South African variant at the same rate. This new study suggests that the tests Novavax used to check for antibodies from past infection are significantly less accurate in African samples. It means they possibly overestimated the number of participants who previously had Covid. This means their findings may be inaccurate and that prior infection does offer some protection.
    That's English- the tweet is utter rubbish!


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 696 ✭✭✭DaSilva


    is_that_so wrote: »
    I admire your efforts in decoding it! There was survey of academics I recall about reading research papers. The word impenetrable emerged as a comment on a lot of them. Concise and precise are great qualities in writing but the key factor is comprehensibility. That tweet has words has no meaning to anyone except a very select few.

    Let me be real clear here, I have no expertise in this field, that is just my best understanding of the information in these two documents, most important bits (to me) quoted below:

    Novavax early results news release
    https://ir.novavax.com/news-releases/news-release-details/novavax-covid-19-vaccine-demonstrates-893-efficacy-uk-phase-3
    ... in this trial, approximately 1/3 of the patients enrolled ... were seropositive, demonstrating prior COVID-19 infection ... the pre-trial infections are thought to have been caused by the original COVID-19 strain (i.e., non-variant), while the subsequent infections during the study were largely variant virus. These data suggest that prior infection with COVID-19 may not completely protect against subsequent infection by the South Africa escape variant

    Paper quoted in tweet
    https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/tmi.13569
    15 of 600 African sera were ... positive in ... spike/S1‐based Euroimmun ELISA, but did not inhibit spike/ACE2 binding in a surrogate virus neutralization test.

    ... SARS‐CoV‐2 IgG ELISA specificity may be significantly reduced in certain populations


  • Posts: 543 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    is_that_so wrote: »
    That's English- the tweet is utter rubbish!

    That's my fault. I should have explained it better in my first post. Sorry for the confusion.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,132 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Hardyn wrote: »
    That's my fault. I should have explained it better in my first post.
    TBH it's really a GIGO situation and you were at the mercy of the poor source materials!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,062 ✭✭✭✭titan18


    We're not dicks. Everyone needs a vaccine. We still have given over double our fair share compared to the average

    We should be in this case, particularly to UK and US. UK gov by being dicks means 80,000 UK people are vaccinated over 80,000 Irish people. I'd much rather people thinking I'm a dick and have those 80k vaccinated than people thinking that (cos of the Australian block etc) and not having those people vaccinated.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,236 ✭✭✭lucernarian


    Hmmzis wrote: »
    Some interesting reading during lunchtime.

    https://assets.researchsquare.com/files/rs-310773/v1_stamped.pdf

    It describes how the current mRNA vaccines are working within vaccinated humans with a very close look at the lymph nodes and germinal center B cells. GC B cells are important in terms of antibody maturation, longevity of the response and the affinity of antibodies (countering variations in the virus). There is some very interesting data there for those interested. For the TL;DR synopsis, here are a few of the important bits:





    IgA class of antibodies is very important in protecting mucosal membranes as there is very little IgG type antibodies residing in our snot.

    Too long for a quote, but previously infected and then vaccinated individuals had a significantly broader response to all circulating variants (good thing).

    Note: it's a preprint but their methods look good and the names on the paper look solid (Florian Krammer among them).

    That is excellent news, especially the higher than expected IGA+ rate.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,054 ✭✭✭D.Q


    That is excellent news, especially the higher than expected IGA+ rate.

    Haha this thread should have red coloured font for bad news and green for good news for the real idiots like me. Even the dumbed down explanations you guys very kindly provide are a bit intense


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,446 ✭✭✭Cork2021




  • Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 18,046 Mod ✭✭✭✭ixoy


    D.Q wrote: »
    Haha this thread should have red coloured font for bad news and green for good news
    If you applied that to the other threads on this forum, they'd end up looking drenched in blood.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,454 ✭✭✭brickster69


    titan18 wrote: »
    UK is an export ban in everything but name really. It might not be as harsh as the US one but they're not exporting vaccines like the EU (we exported 8m to them). My opinion is unless they're going to play fair we shouldn't with them or the US.

    The EU is not exporting vaccines. Only overseas companies who have plants based in the EU who have contracted orders with other countries. Ban exports and they will seriously think about not carrying on business in the EU. The UK has no ban and was the worse hit nation in Europe. If a company wants to export that is up to them.

    "if you get on the wrong train, get off at the nearest station, the longer it takes you to get off, the more expensive the return trip will be."



  • Posts: 12,836 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    The EU is not exporting vaccines. Only overseas companies who have plants based in the EU who have contracted orders with other countries. Ban exports and they will seriously think about not carrying on business in the EU. The UK has no ban and was the worse hit nation in Europe. If a company wants to export that is up to them.

    No they won't. No large pharma company is writing off 20 of the richest countries on the planet for an issue that will be irrelevant in a year.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,116 ✭✭✭Melanchthon


    AdamD wrote: »
    No they won't. No large pharma company is writing off 20 of the richest countries on the planet for an issue that will be irrelevant in a year.

    How can you say that with any certainty at all, I mean last year we saw production being set up in Europe and the UK rather than the USA because of the perceived risk of Trump blocking exports.
    Astra Zeneca was chosen as a partner rather than an American company specifically because of this issue.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,076 ✭✭✭political analyst


    is_that_so wrote: »
    Regulations versus laws. The 1947 Health Act has always had that option of doing whatever is required for public health anyway. The recent amendments are really tweaks to cover what we've had to do. She's a bit late to the party, too.

    That legislation was passed in an era when polio and measles were endemic - diseases that make Covid look mild by comparison. Such is the hysteria that people are reacting to Covid as if it's as bad as smallpox or anthrax.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 451 ✭✭Gile_na_gile


    seamus wrote: »
    It's a good opportunity for the E.U. to tighten up on exports. The evidence is right there that the EU has not engaged in vaccine nationalism despite manufacturers continuously letting us down even while exporting doses out of the EU.

    The US or UK would have no basis to complain about the EU engaging in a little bit of vaccine nationalism at this stage.

    Warn manufacturers that if there are any further shortfalls in delivery, their products will not leave the EU until the shortfall has been rectified.


    We saw that with the warning shot in Italy with EC approval. I think we should cap and control exports to nations that are exporting banning / blocking by other means in order to meet our delivery schedules, while also working harder to export more to COVAX.

    What, if anything, has left the UK for export elsewhere, for example? They have obviously imported plenty from AZ in Belgium and Pfizer in Germany, and rely on our broad pan-European supply network. I imagine they will be exporting Novavax later but that is no good for us at this stage.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 218 ✭✭Tippbhoy1


    The EU is not exporting vaccines. Only overseas companies who have plants based in the EU who have contracted orders with other countries. Ban exports and they will seriously think about not carrying on business in the EU. The UK has no ban and was the worse hit nation in Europe. If a company wants to export that is up to them.

    The UK have control of AstraZeneca who won’t supply anyone else out of the UK factories. They don’t have to “ban” exports as they never make it onto a pallet destined for the EU in the first place. It’s semantics that amount to the same thing, the average Brit will swallow it hook line and sinker.

    Saving EU lives versus the slim risk of loss of business from global players. This is where we will see the power of the EU market. So long as we only target AZ product as they’re the worst offender, we will only piss off the UK who have clearly given the EU citizens lives the two fingers. It’s a simple equation for me. In a years time when the dust has settled the EU will be applauded for their restraint up until now and other countries will understand how badly the EU was treated by the UK.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,399 ✭✭✭✭Hurrache


    The EU is not exporting vaccines. Only overseas companies who have plants based in the EU who have contracted orders with other countries. Ban exports and they will seriously think about not carrying on business in the EU. The UK has no ban and was the worse hit nation in Europe. If a company wants to export that is up to them.

    They are. You only have to go back a page and you'll see the numbers involved. And you'll also see the number that the UK, USA and others are exporting.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,507 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    The EU is not exporting vaccines. Only overseas companies who have plants based in the EU who have contracted orders with other countries. Ban exports and they will seriously think about not carrying on business in the EU. The UK has no ban and was the worse hit nation in Europe. If a company wants to export that is up to them.

    That's doublespeak of Orwellian dimensions.

    The UK has an export ban in place for their AZ produced vaccines.

    The EU does not have an export ban in place and is exporting it's EU produced Pfizer vaccines to the UK (as well as AZ produced vaccines).


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,899 ✭✭✭Apogee




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,899 ✭✭✭Apogee


    Apogee wrote: »
    Sat No: 8,604 administered. Mostly Cohort 3 first doses. Mon-Sat: 79,328. 10% of vaccinatible population (3.7M) given first dose - 373,149.

    546338.jpg


    Very slow with the Dashboard update today.

    Sunday: 1375 administered. Mon-Sun: 81,340 vs target of 84,000
    546545.jpg


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,470 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    Apogee wrote: »
    Very slow with the Dashboard update today.

    Sunday: 1375 administered. Mon-Sun: 81,340 vs target of 84,000
    546545.jpg

    Geo Hub was updated this morning


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,454 ✭✭✭brickster69


    We saw that with the warning shot in Italy with EC approval. I think we should cap and control exports to nations that are exporting banning / blocking by other means in order to meet our delivery schedules, while also working harder to export more to COVAX.

    What, if anything, has left the UK for export elsewhere, for example? They have obviously imported plenty from AZ in Belgium and Pfizer in Germany, and rely on our broad pan-European supply network. I imagine they will be exporting Novavax later but that is no good for us at this stage.

    The EU is exporting nothing to Covax because they don't make any vaccines. Pfizer has been rejected for approval in India and they are American.

    Are you suggesting blocking exports to the USA now because they are not exporting, they could turn off EU vaccine supply at the flick of a switch.

    "if you get on the wrong train, get off at the nearest station, the longer it takes you to get off, the more expensive the return trip will be."



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,899 ✭✭✭Apogee


    Geo Hub was updated this morning


    Was aware of that, but it's hard to tell from the Geo Hub what was actually administered on an individual day, or over a week.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,470 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    Apogee wrote: »
    Was aware of that, but it's hard to tell from the Geo Hub what was actually administered on an individual day, or over a week.

    Tbh it seems to be difficult to be conclusive on either of them for a few days. Seems to be updates made a few days after inital data is uploaded, be it late submissions, data verification or whatever it might be.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,454 ✭✭✭brickster69


    astrofool wrote: »
    That's doublespeak of Orwellian dimensions.

    The UK has an export ban in place for their AZ produced vaccines.

    The EU does not have an export ban in place and is exporting it's EU produced Pfizer vaccines to the UK (as well as AZ produced vaccines).

    They don't they don't have enough capacity to export. That's why they have placed orders ages ago with India.

    It has nothing to do with the EU, they are an American business exporting goods that have been bought and paid for months ago. Get this EU thing out of your head, the EU is just a customer waiting on deliveries, like most other countries.

    "if you get on the wrong train, get off at the nearest station, the longer it takes you to get off, the more expensive the return trip will be."



  • Posts: 5,853 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    They don't they don't have enough capacity to export. That's why they have placed orders ages ago with India.

    It has nothing to do with the EU, they are an American business exporting goods that have been bought and paid for months ago. Get this EU thing out of your head, the EU is just a customer waiting on deliveries, like most other countries.

    Aah come on, someone who knows someone tweeted about it, it must be true


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,789 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased




This discussion has been closed.
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