COVID-19: Vaccine and testing procedures Megathread Part 3 - Read OP

jackryan34 · 10-03-2021 06:08PM

DaSilva wrote: »

In fact what it might be saying is that natural immunity is better than the trial suggested.

That is very good news then

We are 15 months into this mess and re-infections are still very rare, the variants are so dangerous then?

is_that_so · 10-03-2021 06:11PM

DaSilva wrote: »

No I don't think it really changes the efficacy results of the vaccine trial, it just effects the observation they made where they seemed to notice that people were getting infected with the new variant regardless of their previous infection status, now it seems like that observation might have been muddied by those tests not being very accurate in some groups of people. In fact what it might be saying is that natural immunity is better than the trial suggested.

I admire your efforts in decoding it! There was survey of academics I recall about reading research papers. The word impenetrable emerged as a comment on a lot of them. Concise and precise are great qualities in writing but the key factor is comprehensibility. That tweet has words but has no meaning to anyone except a very select few.

jackryan34 · 10-03-2021 06:12PM

is_that_so wrote: »

I admire your efforts in decoding it! There was survey of academics I recall about reading research papers. The word impenetrable emerged as a comment on a lot of them. Concise and precise are great qualities in writing but the key factor is comprehensibility. That tweet has words has no meaning to anyone except a very select few.

It's kind of why peer review stuff is very flawed, I have been on peer review projects and most wouldn't have a clue what they are reading :pac:

10-03-2021 06:16PM

jackryan34 wrote: »

Give me a bit room here, it wasn't intelligence that got me this far.

Antibody tests don't work well on Africans?

They work well on Europeans and Americans, yeah ok, hmmm

Because of that the Novavax vaccine is now a very good vaccine and works well against SA variant

Okay. I'll try again. The trial showed that people who previously had Covid and those who didn't were infected with the South African variant at the same rate. This suggested that prior infection offered no protection from the reinfection with the variant. This new study suggests that the tests Novavax used to check for antibodies from past infection are significantly less accurate in African samples. It means they possibly overestimated the number of participants who previously had Covid. This means their findings may be inaccurate and that prior infection does offer some protection.

is_that_so · 10-03-2021 06:18PM

Hardyn wrote: »

Okay. I'll try again. The trial showed that people who previously had Covid and those who didn't were infected with the South African variant at the same rate. This new study suggests that the tests Novavax used to check for antibodies from past infection are significantly less accurate in African samples. It means they possibly overestimated the number of participants who previously had Covid. This means their findings may be inaccurate and that prior infection does offer some protection.

That's English- the tweet is utter rubbish!

DaSilva · 10-03-2021 06:22PM

is_that_so wrote: »

I admire your efforts in decoding it! There was survey of academics I recall about reading research papers. The word impenetrable emerged as a comment on a lot of them. Concise and precise are great qualities in writing but the key factor is comprehensibility. That tweet has words has no meaning to anyone except a very select few.

Let me be real clear here, I have no expertise in this field, that is just my best understanding of the information in these two documents, most important bits (to me) quoted below:

Novavax early results news release
https://ir.novavax.com/news-releases/news-release-details/novavax-covid-19-vaccine-demonstrates-893-efficacy-uk-phase-3

... in this trial, approximately 1/3 of the patients enrolled ... were seropositive, demonstrating prior COVID-19 infection ... the pre-trial infections are thought to have been caused by the original COVID-19 strain (i.e., non-variant), while the subsequent infections during the study were largely variant virus. These data suggest that prior infection with COVID-19 may not completely protect against subsequent infection by the South Africa escape variant

Paper quoted in tweet
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/tmi.13569

15 of 600 African sera were ... positive in ... spike/S1‐based Euroimmun ELISA, but did not inhibit spike/ACE2 binding in a surrogate virus neutralization test.

... SARS‐CoV‐2 IgG ELISA specificity may be significantly reduced in certain populations

10-03-2021 06:22PM

is_that_so wrote: »

That's English- the tweet is utter rubbish!

That's my fault. I should have explained it better in my first post. Sorry for the confusion.

is_that_so · 10-03-2021 06:25PM

Hardyn wrote: »

That's my fault. I should have explained it better in my first post.

TBH it's really a GIGO situation and you were at the mercy of the poor source materials!

titan18 · 10-03-2021 06:31PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

We're not dicks. Everyone needs a vaccine. We still have given over double our fair share compared to the average

We should be in this case, particularly to UK and US. UK gov by being dicks means 80,000 UK people are vaccinated over 80,000 Irish people. I'd much rather people thinking I'm a dick and have those 80k vaccinated than people thinking that (cos of the Australian block etc) and not having those people vaccinated.

lucernarian · 10-03-2021 06:34PM

Hmmzis wrote: »

Some interesting reading during lunchtime.

https://assets.researchsquare.com/files/rs-310773/v1_stamped.pdf

It describes how the current mRNA vaccines are working within vaccinated humans with a very close look at the lymph nodes and germinal center B cells. GC B cells are important in terms of antibody maturation, longevity of the response and the affinity of antibodies (countering variations in the virus). There is some very interesting data there for those interested. For the TL;DR synopsis, here are a few of the important bits:

IgA class of antibodies is very important in protecting mucosal membranes as there is very little IgG type antibodies residing in our snot.

Too long for a quote, but previously infected and then vaccinated individuals had a significantly broader response to all circulating variants (good thing).

Note: it's a preprint but their methods look good and the names on the paper look solid (Florian Krammer among them).

That is excellent news, especially the higher than expected IGA+ rate.

D.Q · 10-03-2021 06:39PM

lucernarian wrote: »

That is excellent news, especially the higher than expected IGA+ rate.

Haha this thread should have red coloured font for bad news and green for good news for the real idiots like me. Even the dumbed down explanations you guys very kindly provide are a bit intense

Cork2021 · 10-03-2021 06:47PM

Thought as much,

https://twitter.com/ema_news/status/1369706348615766025?s=21

ixoy · 10-03-2021 06:57PM

D.Q wrote: »

Haha this thread should have red coloured font for bad news and green for good news

If you applied that to the other threads on this forum, they'd end up looking drenched in blood.

brickster69 · 10-03-2021 06:58PM

titan18 wrote: »

UK is an export ban in everything but name really. It might not be as harsh as the US one but they're not exporting vaccines like the EU (we exported 8m to them). My opinion is unless they're going to play fair we shouldn't with them or the US.

The EU is not exporting vaccines. Only overseas companies who have plants based in the EU who have contracted orders with other countries. Ban exports and they will seriously think about not carrying on business in the EU. The UK has no ban and was the worse hit nation in Europe. If a company wants to export that is up to them.

10-03-2021 07:00PM

brickster69 wrote: »

The EU is not exporting vaccines. Only overseas companies who have plants based in the EU who have contracted orders with other countries. Ban exports and they will seriously think about not carrying on business in the EU. The UK has no ban and was the worse hit nation in Europe. If a company wants to export that is up to them.

No they won't. No large pharma company is writing off 20 of the richest countries on the planet for an issue that will be irrelevant in a year.

Melanchthon · 10-03-2021 07:06PM

AdamD wrote: »

No they won't. No large pharma company is writing off 20 of the richest countries on the planet for an issue that will be irrelevant in a year.

How can you say that with any certainty at all, I mean last year we saw production being set up in Europe and the UK rather than the USA because of the perceived risk of Trump blocking exports.
Astra Zeneca was chosen as a partner rather than an American company specifically because of this issue.

political analyst · 10-03-2021 07:26PM

is_that_so wrote: »

Regulations versus laws. The 1947 Health Act has always had that option of doing whatever is required for public health anyway. The recent amendments are really tweaks to cover what we've had to do. She's a bit late to the party, too.

That legislation was passed in an era when polio and measles were endemic - diseases that make Covid look mild by comparison. Such is the hysteria that people are reacting to Covid as if it's as bad as smallpox or anthrax.

Gile_na_gile · 10-03-2021 07:33PM

seamus wrote: »

It's a good opportunity for the E.U. to tighten up on exports. The evidence is right there that the EU has not engaged in vaccine nationalism despite manufacturers continuously letting us down even while exporting doses out of the EU.

The US or UK would have no basis to complain about the EU engaging in a little bit of vaccine nationalism at this stage.

Warn manufacturers that if there are any further shortfalls in delivery, their products will not leave the EU until the shortfall has been rectified.

We saw that with the warning shot in Italy with EC approval. I think we should cap and control exports to nations that are exporting banning / blocking by other means in order to meet our delivery schedules, while also working harder to export more to COVAX.

What, if anything, has left the UK for export elsewhere, for example? They have obviously imported plenty from AZ in Belgium and Pfizer in Germany, and rely on our broad pan-European supply network. I imagine they will be exporting Novavax later but that is no good for us at this stage.

Tippbhoy1 · 10-03-2021 07:37PM

brickster69 wrote: »

The EU is not exporting vaccines. Only overseas companies who have plants based in the EU who have contracted orders with other countries. Ban exports and they will seriously think about not carrying on business in the EU. The UK has no ban and was the worse hit nation in Europe. If a company wants to export that is up to them.

The UK have control of AstraZeneca who won’t supply anyone else out of the UK factories. They don’t have to “ban” exports as they never make it onto a pallet destined for the EU in the first place. It’s semantics that amount to the same thing, the average Brit will swallow it hook line and sinker.

Saving EU lives versus the slim risk of loss of business from global players. This is where we will see the power of the EU market. So long as we only target AZ product as they’re the worst offender, we will only piss off the UK who have clearly given the EU citizens lives the two fingers. It’s a simple equation for me. In a years time when the dust has settled the EU will be applauded for their restraint up until now and other countries will understand how badly the EU was treated by the UK.

Hurrache · 10-03-2021 07:38PM

brickster69 wrote: »

The EU is not exporting vaccines. Only overseas companies who have plants based in the EU who have contracted orders with other countries. Ban exports and they will seriously think about not carrying on business in the EU. The UK has no ban and was the worse hit nation in Europe. If a company wants to export that is up to them.

They are. You only have to go back a page and you'll see the numbers involved. And you'll also see the number that the UK, USA and others are exporting.

astrofool · 10-03-2021 07:39PM

brickster69 wrote: »

The EU is not exporting vaccines. Only overseas companies who have plants based in the EU who have contracted orders with other countries. Ban exports and they will seriously think about not carrying on business in the EU. The UK has no ban and was the worse hit nation in Europe. If a company wants to export that is up to them.

That's doublespeak of Orwellian dimensions.

The UK has an export ban in place for their AZ produced vaccines.

The EU does not have an export ban in place and is exporting it's EU produced Pfizer vaccines to the UK (as well as AZ produced vaccines).

Apogee · 10-03-2021 07:40PM

https://twitter.com/FergalBowers/status/1369713788832907265

Apogee · 10-03-2021 07:47PM

Apogee wrote: »

Sat No: 8,604 administered. Mostly Cohort 3 first doses. Mon-Sat: 79,328. 10% of vaccinatible population (3.7M) given first dose - 373,149.

Very slow with the Dashboard update today.

Sunday: 1375 administered. Mon-Sun: 81,340 vs target of 84,000

stephenjmcd · 10-03-2021 07:49PM

Apogee wrote: »

Very slow with the Dashboard update today.

Sunday: 1375 administered. Mon-Sun: 81,340 vs target of 84,000

Geo Hub was updated this morning

brickster69 · 10-03-2021 07:50PM

Gile_na_gile wrote: »

We saw that with the warning shot in Italy with EC approval. I think we should cap and control exports to nations that are exporting banning / blocking by other means in order to meet our delivery schedules, while also working harder to export more to COVAX.

What, if anything, has left the UK for export elsewhere, for example? They have obviously imported plenty from AZ in Belgium and Pfizer in Germany, and rely on our broad pan-European supply network. I imagine they will be exporting Novavax later but that is no good for us at this stage.

The EU is exporting nothing to Covax because they don't make any vaccines. Pfizer has been rejected for approval in India and they are American.

Are you suggesting blocking exports to the USA now because they are not exporting, they could turn off EU vaccine supply at the flick of a switch.

Apogee · 10-03-2021 07:52PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Geo Hub was updated this morning

Was aware of that, but it's hard to tell from the Geo Hub what was actually administered on an individual day, or over a week.

stephenjmcd · 10-03-2021 07:54PM

Apogee wrote: »

Was aware of that, but it's hard to tell from the Geo Hub what was actually administered on an individual day, or over a week.

Tbh it seems to be difficult to be conclusive on either of them for a few days. Seems to be updates made a few days after inital data is uploaded, be it late submissions, data verification or whatever it might be.

brickster69 · 10-03-2021 07:57PM

astrofool wrote: »

That's doublespeak of Orwellian dimensions.

The UK has an export ban in place for their AZ produced vaccines.

The EU does not have an export ban in place and is exporting it's EU produced Pfizer vaccines to the UK (as well as AZ produced vaccines).

They don't they don't have enough capacity to export. That's why they have placed orders ages ago with India.

It has nothing to do with the EU, they are an American business exporting goods that have been bought and paid for months ago. Get this EU thing out of your head, the EU is just a customer waiting on deliveries, like most other countries.

10-03-2021 08:14PM

brickster69 wrote: »

They don't they don't have enough capacity to export. That's why they have placed orders ages ago with India.

It has nothing to do with the EU, they are an American business exporting goods that have been bought and paid for months ago. Get this EU thing out of your head, the EU is just a customer waiting on deliveries, like most other countries.

Aah come on, someone who knows someone tweeted about it, it must be true

ACitizenErased · 10-03-2021 08:26PM

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1369730872597962753?s=20

COVID-19: Vaccine and testing procedures Megathread Part 3 - Read OP

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