2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1

Marius34 · 22-02-2021 10:29AM

cnocbui wrote: »

I'd imagine the BER rating of those units would be atrocious and as always, someone is likely being very loose with the term habitable. People making such claims should be made to live in one for a month in winter. I had a quick look on google street view at one small town near me and I doubt these premises have any insulation and a high percentage of them even have single pane sash windows, which I can tell you from experience are cold and drafty.

I have often gazed at such premises in my locale and wondered why they weren't occupied, but many seem to used as storage spaces for the shop below, judging by the amount of stuff that can be seen through the windows.

Probably in the same way, as Census numbers for "Vacancy".

PropQueries · 22-02-2021 10:52AM

Marius34 wrote: »

Probably in the same way, as Census numbers for "Vacancy".

Maybe. But they're still existing, already built potential housing stock that can be renovated and brought back into the market in a quarter of the time and at about a tenth of the cost of building each new residential unit from scratch.

Cyrus · 22-02-2021 11:24AM

DataDude wrote: »

Our hope was to get a home that we'd be happy to stay in forever rather than one we'd want to upgrade.

It's possible/probable (but not guaranteed) income could go from 200s to 300s in 5-10 years. Beyond that would take a combination of sacrifice and even more luck than I've already had so wouldn't bank on it. My thinking has always been, we'd look to pay off the house ASAP, taking the pressure off financially in order to work less/retire early rather than taking a "keeping up with Joneses" type mentality...but then I see the odd house like this and think "I'd be happy to defer retirement by a few years for that". https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/pine-lodge-new-road-greystones-wicklow/4369599

the problem with looking at houses a 1m+ is that you start to loose persepctive a little, so 1.3m doesnt seem like a lot more than 1m but you average buyer at the 1m level is probably taking a 700k mortgage, to buy at 1.3m you are taking a 42% higher mortgage :pac:

in fairness that pine lodge is a one and done gaff.

if i was you id ditch the idea of that other one, for anywhere close to asking it seems overpriced and its not an amazing looking place, if i was going to greystones id want a little better than that for that money.

hometruths · 22-02-2021 11:44AM

PropQueries wrote: »

Maybe. But they're still existing, already built potential housing stock that can be renovated and brought back into the market in a quarter of the time and at about a tenth of the cost of building each new residential unit from scratch.

Indeed. In second half of last year more than 2,565 local authority properties were brought back into use.

Villa05 · 22-02-2021 11:47AM

Hubertj wrote:

Comedy gold. You couldnâ€™t make this stuff up. No professional qualifications.... no accountability, I wonder how this will translate into the delivery of large scale housing projects. I have a fair idea.

Good find, how do you think it translates in the current system of sourcing social/affordable housing from the private sector? Surely continuing with the current system presents greater potential for more cases

Would it be better to pool the people in the many successful projects throughout the country that provided housing at well below the cost in the private sector?

Is the objective to continue with incompetence or to develop solutions?

DataDude · 22-02-2021 12:05PM

Cyrus wrote: »

the problem with looking at houses a 1m+ is that you start to loose persepctive a little, so 1.3m doesnt seem like a lot more than 1m but you average buyer at the 1m level is probably taking a 700k mortgage, to buy at 1.3m you are taking a 42% higher mortgage :pac:

in fairness that pine lodge is a one and done gaff.

if i was you id ditch the idea of that other one, for anywhere close to asking it seems overpriced and its not an amazing looking place, if i was going to greystones id want a little better than that for that money.

Yeah very true, we've tried to put our own self imposed borrowing limit in place but it's easy to let it creep upwards over time. I think bank lending limits with the exemption in place (4.5x) are crazy (the fact the government want to introduce 5x LTI through the shared equity scheme on those with lower disposable incomes is truly horrifying). Repayments seem fine on paper but if you start to consider an increased tax rates like SF and others want to implement on incomes over €100k, tax credits removed plus a rise in mortgage interest rates over the next 5 years, you could find yourself underwater fast.

I think you're right on the house in question. We dismissed it out of hand last year due to a combination of the price and not really loving it. The lack of options in Greystones made us reconsider now, but we are in a fortunate position of being able to hold out for something better, so I think we'll go that route instead - cheers.

Cyrus · 22-02-2021 12:27PM

DataDude wrote: »

Yeah very true, we've tried to put our own self imposed borrowing limit in place but it's easy to let it creep upwards over time. I think bank lending limits with the exemption in place (4.5x) are crazy (the fact the government want to introduce 5x LTI through the shared equity scheme on those with lower disposable incomes is truly horrifying). Repayments seem fine on paper but if you start to consider an increased tax rates like SF and others want to implement on incomes over €100k, tax credits removed plus a rise in mortgage interest rates over the next 5 years, you could find yourself underwater fast.

I think you're right on the house in question. We dismissed it out of hand last year due to a combination of the price and not really loving it. The lack of options in Greystones made us reconsider now, but we are in a fortunate position of being able to hold out for something better, so I think we'll go that route instead - cheers.

problem is its very hard not to spend up to your max as there is always something better, good luck with it whatever you do and when looking into the future try and forecast things like kids (when, how many, creche costs and impact on one income if both are working because its very very hard to do it all) and then the possibility of one of you taking a step back, either partially or completely.

Once you have kids both of you working in pressurised jobs becomes altogether less desirable not to mention much less manageable.

Hubertj · 22-02-2021 12:52PM

Villa05 wrote: »

Good find, how do you think it translates in the current system of sourcing social/affordable housing from the private sector? Surely continuing with the current system presents greater potential for more cases

Would it be better to pool the people in the many successful projects throughout the country that provided housing at well below the cost in the private sector?

Is the objective to continue with incompetence or to develop solutions?

I never suggested the status quo should continue. Solutions are required but they are not as simple as you or Sinn Fein suggests. There needs to be accountability amongst public sector workers. How would that be greeted by those with vested interests such as trade unions? Structural reform doesn’t happen overnight

Experience_day · 22-02-2021 01:28PM

sorry being lazy, but what's the summary of the market like at the moment? I left the country and have a 3 bed detached near the square in tallaght which is not being used (well apart from a brother that can't believe his luck). Thinking of just selling it but have no idea on pulse in market.

optogirl · 22-02-2021 01:41PM

Experience_day wrote: »

sorry being lazy, but what's the summary of the market like at the moment? I left the country and have a 3 bed detached near the square in tallaght which is not being used (well apart from a brother that can't believe his luck). Thinking of just selling it but have no idea on pulse in market.

Go for it - market is mental at the moment - bidding wars happening all over the place.

MacronvFrugals · 22-02-2021 01:42PM

Experience_day wrote: »

sorry being lazy, but what's the summary of the market like at the moment? I left the country and have a 3 bed detached near the square in tallaght which is not being used (well apart from a brother that can't believe his luck). Thinking of just selling it but have no idea on pulse in market.

I honestly don't think you could be selling at a better time, there's so little supply with the added dynamic of councils bidding with private buyers, go for it!

Villa05 · 22-02-2021 02:33PM

Hubertj wrote:

I never suggested the status quo should continue. Solutions are required but they are not as simple as you or Sinn Fein suggests. There needs to be accountability amongst public sector workers. How would that be greeted by those with vested interests such as trade unions? Structural reform doesnâ€™t happen overnight

Would you agree that pooling those with proven competence and let them tackle the areas with the most acute shortage/affordability issues would be a solid starting point

There is nothing worse for a worker than incompetent leadership. If unions were truly concerned about workers, they would be willing to engage in reform

JimmyVik · 22-02-2021 02:46PM

I have a funny feeling that when the coronavirus is all gone later in the year that sh1t tonne on properties are going to come to the market.
The feeling im getting at the moment is that alot of people are holding out selling at the moment thinking they will get more viewings and buyers later in the year.
Thats possibly true, but i think the supply is going to outweigh the demand very quickly and then we are headed into dangerous crash spiral territory.
Plus you have so many landlords not getting rent and not being able to evict at the moment and just dying to get out of dodge and sell up as soon as restrictions are lifted.

I see dark times ahead.

Hubertj · 22-02-2021 02:52PM

Villa05 wrote: »

Would you agree that pooling those with proven competence and let them tackle the areas with the most acute shortage/affordability issues would be a solid starting point

There is nothing worse for a worker than incompetent leadership. If unions were truly concerned about workers, they would be willing to engage in reform

It would make sense and should happen but is there the competence to make it happen irrespective of the political will? Sinn Fein won’t do it....

There is also nothing worse for a leader with incompetent workers that can’t be moved on.

JimmyVik · 22-02-2021 03:01PM

Villa05 wrote: »

Would you agree that pooling those with proven competence and let them tackle the areas with the most acute shortage/affordability issues would be a solid starting point

There is nothing worse for a worker than incompetent leadership. If unions were truly concerned about workers, they would be willing to engage in reform

The problem is that reform usually ends up making those union members worse off.

I worked in a job where I had to do insane hours about once every two weeks when the sh!t hit the fan.

I made about €50k a year in overtime for a few years.
Then they decided to promote me.
I thought, great, some recognition and a €5000 pay rise.

I came home and spoke to the wife to tell her the good news. She, working in hr in a different company told me to get more details about it.

Luckily she did that. When I went in to sign the forms in HR the next day I asked those questions.

It turned out that the level they were promoting me to were not entitled to be paid overtime. I would have been doing the same hours, same job, had a fancy title and €45,000 a year less.

Now if im offered a promotion my first thought is - is there a catch?
Im sure the word "reform" brings feelings like that too to union members.

Villa05 · 22-02-2021 03:06PM

Hubertj wrote:

There is also nothing worse for a leader with incompetent workers that canâ€™t be moved on.

I'm pretty sure from the the article you posted that the decisions made which led to errors of enormous cost were made at the highest level.

Would you agree

cnocbui · 22-02-2021 03:10PM

PropQueries wrote: »

Fair enough. But that's the problem right there IMO.

Between existing vacant homes, potential units above shops, holiday homes etc., we probably have 10 years worth of potential housing supply already built and just waiting to be re-introduced into the market.

A bit of imagination and we probably wouldn't need to build one new residential unit in Ireland.

Annual probate sales alone should be enough to cater for the demand from higher income households seeking large homes in prime locations in every city, town and village in Ireland.

All the housing supply required to meet the demands from everyone else could probably be met by utilising our existing vacant or potential housing stock much more imaginatively IMO

What practical experience do you have working with your hands? Have you ever built a structure, repaired a roof, etc?

HansKroenke · 22-02-2021 03:29PM

optogirl wrote: »

Go for it - market is mental at the moment - bidding wars happening all over the place.

A lot of people are buying and not a lot selling. This would logically be a time to sell consequently.

HansKroenke · 22-02-2021 03:33PM

JimmyVik wrote: »

I have a funny feeling that when the coronavirus is all gone later in the year that sh1t tonne on properties are going to come to the market.
The feeling im getting at the moment is that alot of people are holding out selling at the moment thinking they will get more viewings and buyers later in the year.
Thats possibly true, but i think the supply is going to outweigh the demand very quickly and then we are headed into dangerous crash spiral territory.
Plus you have so many landlords not getting rent and not being able to evict at the moment and just dying to get out of dodge and sell up as soon as restrictions are lifted.

I see dark times ahead.

Dark, how so? A glut of supply hitting the market to meet that swollen demand in a housing crisis is necessarily a good thing.

awec · 22-02-2021 03:34PM

HansKroenke wrote: »

A lot of people are buying and not a lot selling. This would logically be a time to sell consequently.

Logistically it would be very difficult to sell right now.

Marius34 · 22-02-2021 03:36PM

JimmyVik wrote: »

I have a funny feeling that when the coronavirus is all gone later in the year that sh1t tonne on properties are going to come to the market.
The feeling im getting at the moment is that alot of people are holding out selling at the moment thinking they will get more viewings and buyers later in the year.
Thats possibly true, but i think the supply is going to outweigh the demand very quickly and then we are headed into dangerous crash spiral territory.
Plus you have so many landlords not getting rent and not being able to evict at the moment and just dying to get out of dodge and sell up as soon as restrictions are lifted.

I see dark times ahead.

This one would be an easy winning bet, to bet against this scenario.

cnocbui · 22-02-2021 04:01PM

schmittel wrote: »

Indeed. In second half of last year more than 2,565 local authority properties were brought back into use.

Am I right in thinking this was achieved by spending an average of €15,600 per property? The €40 M mentioned?

hometruths · 22-02-2021 04:19PM

cnocbui wrote: »

Am I right in thinking this was achieved by spending an average of €15,600 per property? The €40 M mentioned?

Not sure if the entire 40m budget was spent, but if it was then yes, your figures would make sense.

Woah · 22-02-2021 04:27PM

JimmyVik wrote: »

I have a funny feeling that when the coronavirus is all gone later in the year that sh1t tonne on properties are going to come to the market.
The feeling im getting at the moment is that alot of people are holding out selling at the moment thinking they will get more viewings and buyers later in the year.
Thats possibly true, but i think the supply is going to outweigh the demand very quickly and then we are headed into dangerous crash spiral territory.
Plus you have so many landlords not getting rent and not being able to evict at the moment and just dying to get out of dodge and sell up as soon as restrictions are lifted.

I see dark times ahead.

As someone renting this sounds like the dream scenario rather than dark times!

Hubertj · 22-02-2021 04:32PM

Villa05 wrote: »

I'm pretty sure from the the article you posted that the decisions made which led to errors of enormous cost were made at the highest level.

Would you agree

No I wouldn’t agree and you can’t draw that conclusion from the article. To me, it points to a systemic failure of public services.

PropQueries · 22-02-2021 04:37PM

cnocbui wrote: »

Am I right in thinking this was achieved by spending an average of €15,600 per property? The €40 M mentioned?

If that’s true, then the cost of refurbishing existing vacant housing stock is about 4% the cost of building a new council house in Dublin City.

Lots of savings to be had for the taxpayer if they ever decided to actually keep a proper record and work out ways to re-introduce this vacant housing stock (including above shop space etc.) in Dublin back into the market IMO

They could even have a new slogan “vacant housing stock cheats us all” or something similar

cnocbui · 22-02-2021 04:44PM

schmittel wrote: »

Not sure if the entire 40m budget was spent, but if it was then yes, your figures would make sense.

Such is that supposed vast pool of uninhabited 'habitable' accommodation that is supposed to be lurking out there, methinks. Those empty spaces above shops not actually being used as neccessary storage, I suspect would need that sort of money, with an extra zero added on the end, to be made actually habitable. Possibly a good bit more.

The shop owners who own their own building are likely not fools. They would be living in those spaces themselves if they were really habitable, rather than spending a quarter of a million to buy or build a house elesewhere.

A potential buyer of my country pile took an architect friend to have a look and cost the renovation enabling his vision. Half a million.

hometruths · 22-02-2021 04:52PM

cnocbui wrote: »

Such is that supposed vast pool of uninhabited 'habitable' accommodation that is supposed to be lurking out there, methinks. Those empty spaces above shops not actually being used as neccessary storage, I suspect would need that sort of money, with an extra zero added on the end, to be made actually habitable. Possibly a good bit more.

The shop owners who own their own building are likely not fools. They would be living in those spaces themselves if they were really habitable, rather than spending a quarter of a million to buy or build a house elesewhere.

A potential buyer of my country pile took an architect friend to have a look and cost the renovation enabling his vision. Half a million.

Big difference between the cost of enabling one's vision with the help of an architect and making a property habitable.

PropQueries · 22-02-2021 04:53PM

cnocbui wrote: »

Such is that supposed vast pool of uninhabited 'habitable' accommodation that is supposed to be lurking out there, methinks. Those empty spaces above shops not actually being used as neccessary storage, I suspect would need that sort of money, with an extra zero added on the end, to be made actually habitable. Possibly a good bit more.

The shop owners who own their own building are likely not fools. They would be living in those spaces themselves if they were really habitable, rather than spending a quarter of a million to buy or build a house elesewhere.

A potential buyer of my country pile took an architect friend to have a look and cost the renovation enabling his vision. Half a million.

Double glazed windows, a bed, couch, shower, oven, sink, a few presses and a heater is all single young renters are looking for. About €15k all in.

That will then allow the houses that are currently rented by the room to 20 year olds to be made available to actual families to buy or rent.

fliball123 · 22-02-2021 05:22PM

PropQueries wrote: »

Double glazed windows, a bed, couch, shower, oven, sink, a few presses and a heater is all single young renters are looking for. About €15k all in.

That will then allow the houses that are currently rented by the room to 20 year olds to be made available to actual families to buy or rent.

and then being on the hook when the 20 year old decides not to pay the rent and losing money on insurance and the like..thanks but no thanks too much of a risk better to use it to keep stock in.I could get stock in bigger bulk and get a better discount at absolutely zero risk

2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

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2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1