2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

hometruths

Hubertj wrote: »

Populism in this country stoops to a particularly low level. How bad can it be for this country when the largest opposition party is who they are and people are gullible enough / desperate enough / fed up enough to be willing to vote for them.

I've posted before that if the left were smart they could make a big dent in the problem and go down well with their base.

Say we're are starting repos tomorrow. We are starting at the back i.e over ten years with highest outstanding balances, and working through the list.

This will catch all the jumbo zombie mortgages on trophy homes, and make everybody else on the list who can, sort out their affairs pretty smartly.

The people who cannot pay off arrears and move up the list will be the ones in most need and can be dealt with sympathetically.

i..e if your turn comes around and you're a couple in a 5 bed in Killiney, you're out on your ear. If your family of four, squashed into into a two bed and would otherwise require social housing, well, we can come to an arrangement.

PropQueries

schmittel wrote: »

I've posted before that if the left were smart they could make a big dent in the problem and go down well with their base.

Say we're are starting repos tomorrow. We are starting at the back i.e over ten years with highest outstanding balances, and working through the list.

This will catch all the jumbo zombie mortgages on trophy homes, and make everybody else on the list who can, sort out their affairs pretty smartly.

The people who cannot pay off arrears and move up the list will be the ones in most need and can be dealt with sympathetically.

i..e if your turn comes around and you're a couple in a 5 bed in Killiney, you're out on your ear. If your family of four, squashed into into a two bed and would otherwise require social housing, well, we can come to an arrangement.

Ok, that’s an idea I can get behind

Villa05

decreds wrote:

Plenty of high value people will leave this country in droves once the lockdown ends and SF come to power.

I'm not sure why people are identifying a party never in power as the ruination of a nation, while the 2 parties in power have been doing it for a century

PropQueries wrote:

I still don't believe many of these strategic defaulters really exist though. It's a propaganda piece thrown out for whatever reason by whatever group IMO

While strategic default exists its much reduced from the heights of the last recession. The average mortgage in the portfolio sold was 300k. That did not get you much in the noughties
Stategic default is an act of selfishness. The selfish thing to do right now is to get you mortgage back on track to avoid the rental market. Most in that portfolio will end up in social housing

PropQueries wrote:

Why would they take the risk in staying another 5 years and the economy potentially collapses completely or another party comes to power and does something that impacts their ability to sell or make their current return?

Good answer, never thought of it that way. Would make sense to profit take and reduce exposure when the state that's feeding you is bankrupting itself in the very action of driving up your profits

The level of incompetence/gullibility/corruption is off the charts

Hubertj

Villa05 wrote: »

I'm not sure why people are identifying a party never in power as the ruination of a nation, while the 2 parties in power have been doing it for a century




While strategic default exists its much reduced from the heights of the last recession. The average mortgage in the portfolio sold was 300k. That did not get you much in the noughties
Stategic default is an act of selfishness. The selfish thing to do right now is to get you mortgage back on track to avoid the rental market. Most in that portfolio will end up in social housing



Good answer, never thought of it that way. Would make sense to profit take and reduce exposure when the state that's feeding you is bankrupting itself in the very action of driving up your profits

The level of incompetence/gullibility/corruption is off the charts

I’d take incompetency and corruption over bombing and terrorism any day. Sad day for society when that sort of behaviour is deemed acceptable. The impact on society of that sort of people governing a country has more far reaching impacts than just property. People in this country laughed and criticised that idiot in the US for 4 years. A party that justifies and defends terrorism is far worse. How will that impact the property market, economy and society? Careful what you wish for. To think they’d do any better...

cnocbui

Hubertj wrote: »

Populism in this country stoops to a particularly low level. How bad can it be for this country when the largest opposition party is who they are and people are gullible enough / desperate enough / fed up enough to be willing to vote for them.

I'd happily vote Sin Fein. In what way could they be worse than the other sh​it heads?

The last time we had the Greens in a coalition, they insisted on demonising and taxing petrol to the hilt and schilling diesel; and look where that got the country.

Now that they know to the very bottom of their souls how wrong that was, they are still demonising petrol and punishing anyone who drives a petrol powered car, even though they are doing the right thing.

Who forgave the Catholic church all their sins and prevented the rightfully aggrieved victims from suing the frocks off them, as they should have been allowed to do? Now they are trying to seal records of more wrongdoings until everyone involved is dust.

Who decided foreign REITs should pay no tax on their profits and no CGT, while the populace gets fleeced 33% on CGT and VRT and Dirt and VAT and Excise and...and...and...

I'm pretty sure it wasn't Sin Fein. At the last election, they were the only party that even mentioned the prospect of a tax cut on property, of all things.

Are Sin Fein responsible for handing over the reins of power to a bunch of overpaid HSE apparatchiks who are so terrified of their own shadows they insist on cancelling all signs of life until the next Ice Age has set in? Want to escape this insanity - there's a €2,000 fine if you make the attempt.

They may well be absolutely appalling in government, but that's just maintaining the status quo and keeping with tradition, as far as I can see. A massive shake up would probably be a good thing in the long term.

Smouse156

House gone up near me recently, stupidly overpriced IMO. Sold for 485k in 2018 (possibly late 2017 given appeared on price register Feb2018) with HTB so really 465k. Second hand houses have risen 7% since (CSO) then Q42017 to Q42020 so I’d value it around the 520k mark. Given the supply shortage maybe 540k although that would be pushing it. Price seems to be based on a larger unit/larger site plot selling for 620k (around the same time but the last sale on that row) on the same row. Typical lazy Sherry Fitzgerald, looking for 2.5% to do nothing bar open the door.

640k seems delusional and really hoping to find the “big fool”:

https://www.daft.ie/for-sale/detached-house-106-millers-court-old-quarter-ballincollig-co-cork/2919114

Anyone in Cork with thoughts?

cnocbui

Thanks. Think I'll chuck another €150,000 on my shack if I can get to where I can list it. Obviously my idea on pricing was way too conservative.

CorkRed93

Smouse156 wrote: »

House gone up near me recently, stupidly overpriced IMO. Sold for 485k in 2018 (possibly late 2017 given appeared on price register Feb2018) with HTB so really 465k. Second hand houses have risen 7% since (CSO) then Q42017 to Q42020 so I’d value it around the 520k mark. Given the supply shortage maybe 540k although that would be pushing it. Price seems to be based on a larger unit/larger site plot selling for 620k (around the same time but the last sale on that row) on the same row. Typical lazy Sherry Fitzgerald, looking for 2.5% to do nothing bar open the door.

640k seems delusional and really hoping to find the “big fool”:

https://www.daft.ie/for-sale/detached-house-106-millers-court-old-quarter-ballincollig-co-cork/2919114

Anyone in Cork with thoughts?

saw this earlier and couldnt believe the asking! I was certain there was a similar one on the market last year around 500k. live near there too, very quiet area but that asking is utterly delusional. You'd buy new off plans in Heathfield up the road cheaper.

Hubertj

Smouse156 wrote: »

House gone up near me recently, stupidly overpriced IMO. Sold for 485k in 2018 (possibly late 2017 given appeared on price register Feb2018) with HTB so really 465k. Second hand houses have risen 7% since (CSO) then Q42017 to Q42020 so I’d value it around the 520k mark. Given the supply shortage maybe 540k although that would be pushing it. Price seems to be based on a larger unit/larger site plot selling for 620k (around the same time but the last sale on that row) on the same row. Typical lazy Sherry Fitzgerald, looking for 2.5% to do nothing bar open the door.

640k seems delusional and really hoping to find the “big fool”:

https://www.daft.ie/for-sale/detached-house-106-millers-court-old-quarter-ballincollig-co-cork/2919114

Anyone in Cork with thoughts?

Wow. It does look very nice but I would have thought €640k would get a lot more house in cork. I’m gone from cork since 2012 but is supply that bad now?

decreds

Smouse156 wrote: »

House gone up near me recently, stupidly overpriced IMO. Sold for 485k in 2018 (possibly late 2017 given appeared on price register Feb2018) with HTB so really 465k. Second hand houses have risen 7% since (CSO) then Q42017 to Q42020 so I’d value it around the 520k mark. Given the supply shortage maybe 540k although that would be pushing it. Price seems to be based on a larger unit/larger site plot selling for 620k (around the same time but the last sale on that row) on the same row. Typical lazy Sherry Fitzgerald, looking for 2.5% to do nothing bar open the door.

640k seems delusional and really hoping to find the “big fool”:

https://www.daft.ie/for-sale/detached-house-106-millers-court-old-quarter-ballincollig-co-cork/2919114

Anyone in Cork with thoughts?

There's still plenty of fools out there with more credit than brains at the moment.



I get the feeling that we will all look back on this lockdown period and compare purchases executed during this period as up there with those who purchased in 2007 right before the financial crisis.



Anyone who is highly leveraged and/or purchasing investment property right now needs to reconsider, imo.

schmittel

schmittel wrote: »

Zenify is spot on, there is a snob thing going on that Bray is full of scumbags, but I think that is less true now than it used to be, but as you say it persists.

Greystones boomed because that snob value was alive and well 20 years ago. Once the dart extended, those who fancied southside coastal living but priced out of Dalkey etc flocked to Greystones and skipped Bray.

However I think over the next 20 years Bray will be playing catch up. It has everything going for it.

Better transport links than Greystones.

Better amenity/infrastructure potential. The main street and side streets are a bit dreary now, with things like vaping and fix your mobile phone shops, but it would not take much to transform it. Greystones is just one main st full of coffee shops.

The seafront is far nicer and more functional than Greystones - it is a feature in Bray whereas Greystones feels like it has its back to the sea.

The area around that Ellerslie villas house is really nice, leafy and mature, short walk to the seafront, bars, restaurants and the dart.

Sure there are some less attractive parts with some dodgier people but they are no closer than the same issue in the premium southside locations - eg Killiney/Ballybrack.

It would not take many well heeled Dubliners to move in, bringing more disposable income that will see the vaping shops etc give way to something more upmarket, and transform Bray into something really quite special.

If you look at the development of south Dublin/North Wicklow over the past 50 years the glaring anomaly is Bray. I cannot see it lasting too much longer!

Totally agree. We moved from South Dublin to Bray a number of years ago, I honestly feel like it was a stroke of genius. I never knew much about Bray but once you come out here, you realise that it's one of the few places with so much on it's doorstep; Dart so you never lose that connection to Dublin which was important for us, sea, mountains, the new Stella cinema, so many great food and brunch spots and fantastic pubs, one of the best golf clubs in the country (Powerscourt).. literally on your doorstep... Compare that to your average housing estate in Cabinteely or Leopardstown (both great spots, I used to live there but you know what I mean).

Bray has a few council estates just like that Killiney/Ballybrack example you mentioned earlier but who's going down there anyway? You don't go to Charlesland or Kindlestown in Greystones and then tell everyone that Greystones is a kip. Likewise you don't go to Castlebyrne in Blackrock and tell everyone that Blackrock is an unsavoury place.

Coming from South Dublin, the one thing that say a Cabinteely has that Bray doesn't have is much better schools on it's doorstep but if you're sending your kids to private, that doesn't really matter anyway.

Smouse156

Hubertj wrote: »

Wow. It does look very nice but I would have thought €640k would get a lot more house in cork. I’m gone from cork since 2012 but is supply that bad now?

Supply is bad but houses haven’t appreciated 35% in two years. They’re just delusional. Won’t get near the asking unless they find a “big fool”. Seems unlikely with the PPR these days

southofthelee

Smouse156 wrote: »

House gone up near me recently, stupidly overpriced IMO. Sold for 485k in 2018 (possibly late 2017 given appeared on price register Feb2018) with HTB so really 465k. Second hand houses have risen 7% since (CSO) then Q42017 to Q42020 so I’d value it around the 520k mark. Given the supply shortage maybe 540k although that would be pushing it. Price seems to be based on a larger unit/larger site plot selling for 620k (around the same time but the last sale on that row) on the same row. Typical lazy Sherry Fitzgerald, looking for 2.5% to do nothing bar open the door.

640k seems delusional and really hoping to find the “big fool”:

Anyone in Cork with thoughts?

Tricky. From a location perspective Ballincollig is Ballincollig not Cork City - regardless of boundary changes.

On the other hand - it is a 5-bed - which if in a more desirable suburb would be at least +10% (look in Daft for 5 beds in Blackrock, Douglas etc.).

Additionally - there are plenty of folk with employment in the proximity of Ballincollig in solid employment (EMC etc), who could easily access credit for this property (think trader-uppers).

It will probably get this price

Smouse156

southofthelee wrote: »

Tricky. From a location perspective Ballincollig is Ballincollig not Cork City - regardless of boundary changes.

On the other hand - it is a 5-bed - which if in a more desirable suburb would be at least +10% (look in Daft for 5 beds in Blackrock, Douglas etc.).

Additionally - there are plenty of folk with employment in the proximity of Ballincollig in solid employment (EMC etc), who could easily access credit for this property (think trader-uppers).

It will probably get this price

Not a hope! It’s Ballincollig, not Blackrock! If it was on the Model Farm Road then yeah it would get it but not in Ballincollig. I live in Ballincollig and I like it but it’s not the Blackrock Road...you’re not comparing like for like. It’s the Cork equivalent of Lucan. Anyone paying 640k is immediately 100k in negative equity.

donnaille

CorkRed93 wrote: »

saw this earlier and couldnt believe the asking! I was certain there was a similar one on the market last year around 500k. live near there too, very quiet area but that asking is utterly delusional. You'd buy new off plans in Heathfield up the road cheaper.

Similar, saw this and the price looks about 20% higher than I’d have expected!

Sweet.Science

Deleted User wrote: »

Totally agree. We moved from South Dublin to Bray a number of years ago, I honestly feel like it was a stroke of genius. I never knew much about Bray but once you come out here, you realise that it's one of the few places with so much on it's doorstep; Dart so you never lose that connection to Dublin which was important for us, sea, mountains, the new Stella cinema, so many great food and brunch spots and fantastic pubs, one of the best golf clubs in the country (Powerscourt).. literally on your doorstep... Compare that to your average housing estate in Cabinteely or Leopardstown (both great spots, I used to live there but you know what I mean).

Bray has a few council estates just like that Killiney/Ballybrack example you mentioned earlier but who's going down there anyway? You don't go to Charlesland or Kindlestown in Greystones and then tell everyone that Greystones is a kip. Likewise you don't go to Castlebyrne in Blackrock and tell everyone that Blackrock is an unsavoury place.

Coming from South Dublin, the one thing that say a Cabinteely has that Bray doesn't have is much better schools on it's doorstep but if you're sending your kids to private, that doesn't really matter anyway.

Wow what a yuppie post . Almost satirical. Partridge - esque

southofthelee

Smouse156 wrote: »

Not a hope! It’s Ballincollig, not Blackrock! If it was on the Model Farm Road then yeah it would get it but not in Ballincollig. I live in Ballincollig and I like it but it’s not the Blackrock Road...you’re not comparing like for like. It’s the Cork equivalent of Lucan. Anyone paying 640k is immediately 100k in negative equity.

Ya - as per my post Blackrock would be +10% for a five bed. I don't believe the property is worth it - but with the current levels of dry powder I would wager it will attain this price.

Also worth noting it's SherryFitz - who at least in the areas I follow - will price above market average - and if the seller is not in a rush - will hold out for this price.

Smouse156

southofthelee wrote: »

Ya - as per my post Blackrock would be +10% for a five bed. I don't believe the property is worth it - but with the current levels of dry powder I would wager it will attain this price.

Also worth noting it's SherryFitz - who at least in the areas I follow - will price above market average - and if the seller is not in a rush - will hold out for this price.

Well let’s see. I pity the poor fool that gets screwed if it does sell for it’s asking

southofthelee

Ya absolutely. Challenge with 5 beds in Cork is rarity.

In the core desirable suburbs you are realistically looking at buying a 3/4 bed estate sale for let's say €400k (think single glazed windows and boiler for the 50s) and getting in builders to do a major job / planning etc.

Smiley11

Smouse156 wrote: »

House gone up near me recently, stupidly overpriced IMO. Sold for 485k in 2018 (possibly late 2017 given appeared on price register Feb2018) with HTB so really 465k. Second hand houses have risen 7% since (CSO) then Q42017 to Q42020 so I’d value it around the 520k mark. Given the supply shortage maybe 540k although that would be pushing it. Price seems to be based on a larger unit/larger site plot selling for 620k (around the same time but the last sale on that row) on the same row. Typical lazy Sherry Fitzgerald, looking for 2.5% to do nothing bar open the door.

640k seems delusional and really hoping to find the “big fool”:

https://www.daft.ie/for-sale/detached-house-106-millers-court-old-quarter-ballincollig-co-cork/2919114

Anyone in Cork with thoughts?

Nice house but...the asking price seems very high given its not of the stand alone larger detached, larger site type homes in Ballincollig. I wouldn't pay it but somebody will because thats this market. Saw another one in Douglas go up yesterday for nearly 600k. Well extended but dated IMO & a quick check on the PPR shows its closest price contender being 470k a couple of years ago, highest price ever paid in that estate in the history of the PPR. All these ludicrous asking prices are telling me to back the feck off until things ease up & let our competitors burn off some steam All I can do is roll my eyes & shrug to myself.

Villa05

Hubertj wrote:

I’d take incompetency and corruption over bombing and terrorism any day. Sad day for society when that sort of behaviour is deemed acceptable. The impact on society of that sort of people governing a country has more far reaching impacts than just property. People in this country laughed and criticised that idiot in the US for 4 years. A party that justifies and defends terrorism is far worse. How will that impact the property market, economy and society? Careful what you wish for. To think they’d do any better...

Do you not understand that incompetency and corruption leads to the rise in popularity of alternate parties. In your acceptance of it you are contributing to the popularity of SF

Hubertj

Villa05 wrote: »

Do you not understand that incompetency and corruption leads to the rise in popularity of alternate parties. In your acceptance of it you are contributing to the popularity of SF

I don’t accept either.

PropQueries

Villa05 wrote: »

Do you not understand that incompetency and corruption leads to the rise in popularity of alternate parties. In your acceptance of it you are contributing to the popularity of SF

I think you have a good point and my generation have a very short memory. My generations assets will get transferred to the section of the population with few or no assets at some stage and hopefully it will be through taxation.

Not in favour of this method but the alternative methods of transferring wealth are much worse and very possible IMO

We don’t have to delve too far back into the history books to see what methods can (will be?) used.

Trump, Brexit etc. should have been a warning signal but it doesn’t appear our political class (here or abroad) have taken it too seriously IMO

Smouse156

Smiley11 wrote: »

Nice house but...the asking price seems very high given its not of the stand alone larger detached, larger site type homes in Ballincollig. I wouldn't pay it but somebody will because thats this market. Saw another one in Douglas go up yesterday for nearly 600k. Well extended but dated IMO & a quick check on the PPR shows its closest price contender being 470k a couple of years ago, highest price ever paid in that estate in the history of the PPR. All these ludicrous asking prices are telling me to back the feck off until things ease up & let our competitors burn off some steam All I can do is roll my eyes & shrug to myself.

As soon as we get an uptick in supply those houses lose 20% if anyone actually pays those prices. Still though, a home is the most expensive purchase of most people’s lives and even if they personally haven’t a clue about property you’d think they’d ask someone that does before signing contracts. For the Ballincollig house better to rent and spend 20k for a year than lose 100k on it.

PropQueries

Smouse156 wrote: »

As soon as we get an uptick in supply those houses lose 20% if anyone actually pays those prices. Still though, a home is the most expensive purchase of most people’s lives and even if they personally haven’t a clue about property you’d think they’d ask someone that does before signing contracts. For the Ballincollig house better to rent and spend 20k for a year than lose 100k on it.

What’s the story with the cork housing market? There’s nothing but land around cork city.

I know Dublin has plenty of land but cork is basically one big field. That’s not being said in jest. There’s nothing but empty land around cork city, so no possible reason at all for any housing supply issues.

Hubertj

Smouse156 wrote: »

As soon as we get an uptick in supply those houses lose 20% if anyone actually pays those prices. Still though, a home is the most expensive purchase of most people’s lives and even if they personally haven’t a clue about property you’d think they’d ask someone that does before signing contracts. For the Ballincollig house better to rent and spend 20k for a year than lose 100k on it.

Is there much on the way in terms of new builds in blackrock etc? Or just what planned along the river?

Smiley11

It really shows up these bank valuations as a tick the box exercise. I've never heard of a valuer opposing the agreed price & thats another glaring problem.

We're technically desperate for a house but you have to maintain rationality above all else when it comes to the biggest purchase of your life. I couldn't pay those prices in Cork for a pretty average house. Many will though & therein lies the problem!

My gut is telling me to stop checking the property sites every couple of hours, every day & focus on anything else in the hope calm is restored to some degree. I've accepted that we won't be getting a bargain but I do expect some semblance of value.

The house discussed in Artane previously just beggars belief...495k to 650k without ever setting foot inside the door? And a valuer will sign off on it? Its yet another means of highlighting what is seriously wrong with the market & with its stakeholders.

Smiley11

PropQueries wrote: »

What’s the story with the cork housing market? There’s nothing but land around cork city.

I know Dublin has plenty of land but cork is basically one big field. That’s not being said in jest. There’s nothing but empty land around cork city, so no possible reason at all for any housing supply issues.

Hubertj wrote: »

Is there much on the way in terms of new builds in blackrock etc? Or just what planned along the river?

To be honest, we're not in the new build market but, in my limited knowledge, there seem to be quite a few new developments going on outside of restrictions. Thats just my impression though & somebody in that market may have a far better insight into it. What I do see regularly though is houses going sale agreed far surpassing their asking orice. This isn't in every area obviously but you need a pretty flexible budget in the "hot" areas. There aren't many 1m+ houses on the market generally but, in those I've checked, they seem to be going for asking & slightly under. Not our price range unfortunately but the 1m + houses here tend to be food quality.

PropQueries

Smiley11 wrote: »

To be honest, we're not in the new build market but, in my limited knowledge, there seem to be quite a few new developments going on outside of restrictions. Thats just my impression though & somebody in that market may have a far better insight into it. What I do see regularly though is houses going sale agreed far surpassing their asking orice. This isn't in every area obviously but you need a pretty flexible budget in the "hot" areas. There aren't many 1m+ houses on the market generally but, in those I've checked, they seem to be going for asking & slightly under. Not our price range unfortunately but the 1m + houses here tend to be food quality.

But that house mentioned for €640k. How much could that possibly cost to build? I’ll be very very very generous and say €300k.

So, that’s at least €340k for a tiny site in an estate that far from cork city. Just looked at it on google earth and there really isn’t anything but empty fields all around the area. Sounds insane IMO

Smouse156

Hubertj wrote: »

Is there much on the way in terms of new builds in blackrock etc? Or just what planned along the river?

There are a good few estates being built in the suburbs and what people said isn’t far off the mark. There is lots of land available. Just not enough construction workers & Govt lockdown of construction will drive more and more Sinn Fein votes in the near future