2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

thefridge2006

fliball123 wrote: »

Looks like a gulp of swallows

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/more-than-400-000-jobs-created-in-irish-economy-in-six-years-before-covid-crisis-1.4288324#:~:text=reversed%20the%20trend-,More%20than%20400%2C000%20jobs%20were%20created%20in%20the%20Irish%20economy,hit%20and%20reversed%20the%20trend.&text=The%20CSO%20figures%20show%20that,all%2Dtime%20of%202.35%20million.


https://www.gov.ie/en/press-release/cc269-16496-new-jobs-created-by-enterprise-ireland-supported-companies-in-2020/

https://www.idaireland.com/newsroom/ida-ireland-announces-results-for-2020-and-tanaist

https://www.thejournal.ie/amazon-1000-new-jobs-ireland-5160547-Jul2020/

Great news, hopefully the 657,076 on PUP will walk into these jobs when they eventually get the bullet and we can go back to living happily ever after

fliball123

Browney7 wrote: »

Considering landlords have been prohibited from ending tenancies (due to Covid pandemic restrictions) on the grounds of sale for the guts of a year now (with the exception of a few months here and there) it's no surprise the properties available for sale has plummeted. No way of quantifying how many properties that are for sale at any one time are ex rental though

Yeah good point but there is the option of putting a property up for sale with a tenant in situ these have not risen over that period either. What we can say for certainty is small landlords have been leaving the market pre covid.

fliball123

thefridge2006 wrote: »

Great news, hopefully the 657,076 on PUP will walk into these jobs when they eventually get the bullet and we can go back to our normal booming economy again.

What ever just pointing out its not all doom and gloom and the fact that a previous poster tried to point out that the creation of 2k jobs was a mere "one swallow does not make a summer" scenario so as can be seen by the links its a gulp of swallows. Also I reckon a high % of those on PUP will walk back into the job they had precovid unless you have evidence to the contrary?

thefridge2006

fliball123 wrote: »

What ever just pointing out its not all doom and gloom and the fact that a previous poster tried to point out that the creation of 2k jobs was a mere "one swallow does not make a summer" scenario so as can be seen by the links its a gulp of swallows. Also I reckon a high % of those on PUP will walk back into the job they had precovid.

It is absolutely doom and gloom Fliball. 657,076 people on PUP alone, not to mention other subsidies.... We will be a very long time recovering from this mess and i have a feeling we've seen nothing yet.

I love your optimism but we are fu£ked

fliball123

thefridge2006 wrote: »

It is absolutely doom and gloom Fliball. 657,076 people on PUP alone, not to mention other subsidies.... We will be a very long time recovering from this mess and i have a feeling we've seen nothing yet.

I love your optimism but we are fu£ked

The 657076 have had their places of business (where they worked) closed (in a lot of cases this is temporary). Have you evidence that these places will remain closed? We borrowed 10 times as much in 2008 tried austerity it did not work I cant see a government doing it now with 10% more debt and the existing debt refinanced at a lower rate meaning the repayments will be more or less the same as what we were paying back after the last crash. Just think of how much better off our economy will be when those 657076 people are no longer taking money from the economy but paying tax into it? It also begs the question why others as in the links I posted seem to think Ireland Inc is a good place to set up new jobs.

PropQueries

fliball123 wrote: »

We borrowed 10 times as much in 2008 tried austerity it did not work I cant see a government doing it now with 10% more debt and the existing debt refinanced at a lower rate meaning the repayments will be more or less the same as what we were paying back after the last crash.

Our refinancing costs could change much faster than many people assume. And god knows what refinancing rates will be in ten years time. I’m expecting significant tax rises on everything from incomes to property to pensions to inheritance taxes etc. and major cuts to our local services in the very near future. This wasn’t free money.

According to the Irish Independent today:

“Borrowing costs for Ireland start to rise as investors expect ‘reflation’. the yield on Irish 10-year government bonds has shifted back into positive numbers, meaning the cost of debt looks set to rise next time Ireland taps the markets.”

Link to Irish Independent here: https://independent.ie/business/irish/borrowing-costs-for-ireland-start-to-rise-as-investors-expect-reflation-40121273.html

Zenify

fliball123 wrote: »

Looks like a gulp of swallows

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/more-than-400-000-jobs-created-in-irish-economy-in-six-years-before-covid-crisis-1.4288324#:~:text=reversed%20the%20trend-,More%20than%20400%2C000%20jobs%20were%20created%20in%20the%20Irish%20economy,hit%20and%20reversed%20the%20trend.&text=The%20CSO%20figures%20show%20that,all%2Dtime%20of%202.35%20million.


https://www.gov.ie/en/press-release/cc269-16496-new-jobs-created-by-enterprise-ireland-supported-companies-in-2020/

https://www.idaireland.com/newsroom/ida-ireland-announces-results-for-2020-and-tanaist

https://www.thejournal.ie/amazon-1000-new-jobs-ireland-5160547-Jul2020/

OK... 2000 god damn migrating birds does not make a summer! My point was that the the new tax treatments have not been finalised yet so their effects have not materialised.

cnocbui

Hubertj wrote: »

I think the question should be where will tax be paid on it. If it’s nowhere that’s not good. But if that money goes back to the US I presume some form of tax is paid. It’s like the apple tax case. Tax was always going to be paid, question was where.

Tax was not paid on the Apple money, it sat in a Bank's computer in NY in an account marked foreign, which meant it hadn't been brought into the US. Apple were waiting and angling for a tax holiday for years and then of course trump delivered.

Why Trump's Potential $500 Billion Tax Holiday Could Make Apple and Microsoft Huge Winners
There could be a major windfall for Fortune 500 companies.

thefridge2006

fliball123 wrote: »

The 657076 have had their places of business (where they worked) closed (in a lot of cases this is temporary). Have you evidence that these places will remain closed?

Have you evidence that they will open their doors again once the support is stopped? I would imagine some will reopen but most will never be seen again or wont last a year.

We borrowed 10 times as much in 2008 tried austerity it did not work I cant see a government doing it now with 10% more debt and the existing debt refinanced at a lower rate meaning the repayments will be more or less the same as what we were paying back after the last crash.

Borrowing costs for Ireland start to rise as investors expect ‘reflation’
https://www.independent.ie/business/irish/borrowing-costs-for-ireland-start-to-rise-as-investors-expect-reflation-40121273.html


Just think of how much better off our economy will be when those 657076 people are no longer taking money from the economy but paying tax into it? It also begs the question why others as in the links I posted seem to think Ireland Inc is a good place to set up new jobs.

TAX loopholes. nothing to do with our education, language or our craic, like some would have you believe. Its financial. The MNC would move to the next crowd in a heartbeat if they were getting a better deal

fliball123

thefridge2006 wrote: »

Have you evidence that they will open their doors again once the support is stopped? I would imagine some will reopen but most will never be seen again or wont last a year.

We borrowed 10 times as much in 2008 tried austerity it did not work I cant see a government doing it now with 10% more debt and the existing debt refinanced at a lower rate meaning the repayments will be more or less the same as what we were paying back after the last crash.

Borrowing costs for Ireland start to rise as investors expect ‘reflation’
https://www.independent.ie/business/irish/borrowing-costs-for-ireland-start-to-rise-as-investors-expect-reflation-40121273.html


Just think of how much better off our economy will be when those 657076 people are no longer taking money from the economy but paying tax into it? It also begs the question why others as in the links I posted seem to think Ireland Inc is a good place to set up new jobs.

TAX loopholes. nothing to do with our education, language or our craic, like some would have you believe. Its financial. The MNC would move to the next crowd in a heartbeat if they were getting a better deal

Well we will have to wait and see where the 600k+ on PUP go when we open up so you cant just write them off either as long term on the dole. The country has closed down, companies have been forced to close you only have to look at the lobby groups in Ireland how they are putting pressure on the government to open back up. Surely a large % will be back working what they were doing before

What better deal are they getting the MNCs are already located here so it wont impact on corpo tax and will have to pay employee tax on each employee as well as the wage. Where is the loophole. Are there tax loop holes when it comes to paying employees in this country (could be wrong on this)

So the 600k jobs created in the 5 years building up to 2020 and the 16k created in 2020 is all down to tax loop holes even do a lot of the companies had an existing base here in the country?

JimmyVik

handlemaster wrote: »

I haven't been following the mood recently. What's the feeling out there with prices now and the market in general. The expected drop in prices hasn't really happened. I guess there have to be tailoring off of central bank money at some stage which will make an effect.

I think since there is a lag that the price drops are going to be even worse than they would have been. But who knows really.
I certainly wouldnt be buying in the next year or so anyway.

Villa05

awec wrote:

In the same article, I think the Central Bank are suggesting their own analysis is that without their rules prices could be up to 25% higher than they are now.

I think politicians are intelligent and well educated, so they are well aware of the consequences of their actions.

The shared equity scheme is a work around to the central bank rules and this will inevitably push up prices and rents as has been warned by the multiple state advisers

Considering the state is the largest rent payer in the country by considerable distance, one would have to ask why a government is pursuing policies that increases the burden on the state and its citizens

Is this corruption, cronyism, treason? What is it?

I'm ruling out incompetence for a number of reasons
The people pushing these policies are intelligent and well educated
These polices have been pursued before and found to be inflationary and of very help and extremely high risk
All independent advise has been negative to the scheme

PropQueries

This is a prime example of how the Government's failed housing policy eventually feeds into middle class areas where the residents probably believed they were fairly immune to most of the resultant consequences.

According to The Echo today:

"Plans for a homeless hub for families to be located at the former Cappaghmore Nursing Home in Clondalkin, has been blasted by residents who cite lack of communication with the council. The former nursing home consists of two houses, in an estate which normally has four-bed homes."

From looking at the estate on Google maps, it looks like a fairly well heeled estate. Obviously not compared to some areas (e.g. Dalkey etc.), but it looks like it's definitely a well established middle class estate.

And similar practices are happening all over the city in middle class estates.

Back in 2018, in Clontarf, it was reported: "As much as €1.3 million of taxpayers’ money has been spent on renovations on a pair of homes – bought for almost €2 million – to house homeless families in Dublin.

The homes, which were sold for €194,000 above the original asking price of €1.8million, had together been used as a B&B in upmarket Clontarf.

The properties in St Lawrence Road were purchased by the State’s Housing Agency on behalf of Dublin City Council last year to provide accommodation for 13 families who are homeless and in commercial hotels."

Link to article in The Echo today on Clondalkin nursing home to be used as homeless hub here: https://echo.ie/clondalkin/article/homeless-hub-for-small-families-planned-for-former-nursing-home

Link to article on St. Laurence's Road, Clontarf, in 2018: https://extra.ie/2018/06/11/news/irish-news/homeless-hub-dublin

Just to add to this and genuine question. What's the story with planning permission for converting e.g. former nursing homes, B&B's etc. in existing residential estates into family hubs etc.? Seems like planning permission should be required as it's a fairly big change of use IMO

But, then again, some posters here believe if you own a property you should be able to do whatever you like with it

AlmightyCushion

Villa05 wrote: »

I think politicians are intelligent and well educated, so they are well aware of the consequences of their actions.

The shared equity scheme is a work around to the central bank rules and this will inevitably push up prices and rents as has been warned by the multiple state advisers

Considering the state is the largest rent payer in the country by considerable distance, one would have to ask why a government is pursuing policies that increases the burden on the state and its citizens

Is this corruption, cronyism, treason? What is it?

I'm ruling out incompetence for a number of reasons
The people pushing these policies are intelligent and well educated
These polices have been pursued before and found to be inflationary and of very help and extremely high risk
All independent advise has been negative to the scheme

They do it because to some people it looks good and it helps. Some one who can only afford a place that costs €300k will now be able to buy a place for €400k. We know that it will lead to price increases but to some people it looks like the government is helping them buy a place. It's the same with the Help to Buy. It leads to price increases but people see they are able to get 30k from the state to buy so it looks good.

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

This is a prime example of how the Government's failed housing policy eventually feeds into middle class areas where the residents probably believed they were fairly immune to most of the resultant consequences.

According to The Echo today:

"Plans for a homeless hub for families to be located at the former Cappaghmore Nursing Home in Clondalkin, has been blasted by residents who cite lack of communication with the council. The former nursing home consists of two houses, in an estate which normally has four-bed homes."

From looking at the estate on Google maps, it looks like a fairly well heeled estate. Obviously not compared to some areas (e.g. Dalkey etc.), but it looks like it's definitely a well established middle class estate.

And similar practices are happening all over the city in middle class estates.

Back in 2018, in Clontarf, it was reported: "As much as €1.3 million of taxpayers’ money has been spent on renovations on a pair of homes – bought for almost €2 million – to house homeless families in Dublin.

The homes, which were sold for €194,000 above the original asking price of €1.8million, had together been used as a B&B in upmarket Clontarf.

The properties in St Lawrence Road were purchased by the State’s Housing Agency on behalf of Dublin City Council last year to provide accommodation for 13 families who are homeless and in commercial hotels."

Link to article in The Echo today on Clondalkin nursing home to be used as homeless hub here: https://echo.ie/clondalkin/article/homeless-hub-for-small-families-planned-for-former-nursing-home

Link to article on St. Laurence's Road, Clontarf, in 2018: https://extra.ie/2018/06/11/news/irish-news/homeless-hub-dublin

you used well heeled and clondalkin in the same sentence, thats a first i think.

Balluba

David McWilliam’s Ireland S1 episode 1 was on Virgin Media last night. He discussed Irish housing issues and the current property bubble.
It was informative and worth a watch.

JimmyVik

Balluba wrote: »

David McWilliam’s Ireland S1 episode 1 was on Virgin Media last night. He discussed Irish housing issues and the current property bubble.
It was informative and worth a watch.

Just watched it.
He is right. It is panic buying alright.

Villa05

Did he describe it as a bubble?
He had been careful up to recently about commenting on the property market
I got the impression, he got a backlash for his commentary prior to the previous bust

Hubertj

Balluba wrote: »

David McWilliam’s Ireland S1 episode 1 was on Virgin Media last night. He discussed Irish housing issues and the current property bubble.
It was informative and worth a watch.

Very interesting. Any idea when it was produced? Clearly not recent due to audience etc..
Found it. Released in 2017.

Hubertj

Hubertj wrote: »

Very interesting. Any idea when it was produced? Clearly not recent due to audience etc..
Found it. Released in 2017.

So,what do you tihink now ? Prices will continue rising and future of property in Ireland is bright as never ?

Cyrus

[Deleted User] wrote: »

So,what do you tihink now ? Prices will continue rising and future of property in Ireland is bright as never ?

What do you think ?

cnocbui

Deleted User wrote: »

So,what do you tihink now ? Prices will continue rising and future of property in Ireland is bright as never ?

Houses are not expensive in Ireland.

Timing belt

PropQueries wrote: »

Our refinancing costs could change much faster than many people assume. And god knows what refinancing rates will be in ten years time. I’m expecting significant tax rises on everything from incomes to property to pensions to inheritance taxes etc. and major cuts to our local services in the very near future. This wasn’t free money.

According to the Irish Independent today:

“Borrowing costs for Ireland start to rise as investors expect ‘reflation’. the yield on Irish 10-year government bonds has shifted back into positive numbers, meaning the cost of debt looks set to rise next time Ireland taps the markets.”

Link to Irish Independent here: https://independent.ie/business/irish/borrowing-costs-for-ireland-start-to-rise-as-investors-expect-reflation-40121273.html

Seems unlikely that we will see significant inflation in the next 12-18 months based on ECB predictions.

Hubertj

[Deleted User] wrote: »

So,what do you tihink now ? Prices will continue rising and future of property in Ireland is bright as never ?

Apologies but I do not understand what you mean. I don’t think prices will increase. I thought prices would be falling.

PropQueries

Timing belt wrote: »

Seems unlikely that we will see significant inflation in the next 12-18 months based on ECB predictions.

decreds

With technology stocks dropping an average of 30% over the past 10 days, i would call that a crash.

How long before it creeps into the property market remains to be seen. Winter is coming

hometruths

Hubertj wrote: »

Very interesting. Any idea when it was produced? Clearly not recent due to audience etc..
Found it. Released in 2017.

The important thing about the programme is was he living in a 7 figure house at the time. Or was it only 6 figures?

Timing belt

decreds wrote: »

With technology stocks dropping an average of 30% over the past 10 days, i would call that a crash.

How long before it creeps into the property market remains to be seen. Winter is coming

NASDAQ has not even dropped 10% !!!!

Cyrus

schmittel wrote: »

The important thing about the programme is was he living in a 7 figure house at the time. Or was it only 6 figures?

2017 it was probably still a 6 figure house .

You’re welcome .

Can we get any other 3 year old production that will help us with this thread about the 2021 property market ?

Timing belt

PropQueries wrote: »

Inflation in Europe would have been negative in Jan without the 1% reversal of Germany’s vat cut despite the increase in oil prices.

I’m surprised you haven’t commented on the central bank proposing to bring in new lending limits for refits/funds.