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Covid 19 Part XXXII-215,743 ROI (4,137 deaths)111,166 NI (2,036 deaths)(22/02)Read OP

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Comments

  • #8552
    frank8211
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 306 ✭✭frank8211


    Anyone knnow whats been happening in Monaghan


  • #8553
    blowitupref
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,159 ✭✭✭blowitupref


    Patches oHoulihan wrote: »
    Almost another thousand the then.
    AGAIN..... and thats just what they swabbed.

    Its not going to get lower than that is it!

    843 was the swab count the last 24hrs. It will get lower, much lower you just need to have a little patience.


  • #8554
    NeuralNetwork
    Closed Accounts Posts: 727 ✭✭✭NeuralNetwork


    Bubbaclaus wrote: »
    I'd would say Group 14 will start in July, if I was to guess.

    A lot will depend on how fast the system can vaccinate. The supplies are unlikely to be in anyway restricted in a month or so. The punch points will then be the speed of the vaccination system.

    The mass vaccination centres are looking promising and there’s a lot of capacity through GPs and pharmacies.

    It’s also looking like the Pfizer vaccine is much less problematic to transport than initially assumed. The extreme cryogenic freezing is looking to have been over cautious and there’s a hell of a lot of those doses being produced by Pfizer, BioNTech and also Sanofi in Europe.

    The big unpredictable factor is variants. If they become a really serious issue for the vaccines, you’re looking at effectively having to rerun the programme.

    We’re still flying blind with this as it’s a new virus to our immune systems & population. So I wouldn’t count my chickens just yet.


  • #8555
    vafankillar
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 592 ✭✭✭vafankillar


    how the **** are cases still staying so high? what are people up to for christ sake?


  • #8556
    TheDoctor
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,980 ✭✭✭TheDoctor


    Bubbaclaus wrote: »
    I'd would say Group 14 will start in July, if I was to guess.

    I'd be thrilled if I get offered in July! Have late Q3/early Q4 in my head.


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  • #8557
    NeuralNetwork
    Closed Accounts Posts: 727 ✭✭✭NeuralNetwork


    vafankillar wrote: »
    how the **** are cases still staying so high? what are people up to for christ sake?

    Probably a mixture of the U.K. varient being 90% of cases and that you’ll never get an absolute level of compliance. It’s just not achievable with humans in a liberal democracy.

    I’m actually beginning to wonder if there’s immunity in parts of Asia due to perhaps exposure to similar, but not deadly, viruses over the years. The social measures alone simply don’t add up as why there’s such a huge difference between Europe and Asia on this and I think we are possibly beating ourselves up over being unable to beat this when it may simply be down to our immune systems and a need for vaccines.

    There are serious screw ups on public policy but I’m not sure that any more than this is going to be achieved. The only route out of this seems to be successful vaccination.


  • #8558
    wadacrack
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,172 ✭✭✭wadacrack


    NeuralNetwork wrote: »
    Probably a mixture of the U.K. varient being 90% of cases and that you’ll never get an absolute level of compliance. It’s just not achievable with humans in a liberal democracy.

    I’m actually beginning to wonder if there’s immunity in parts of Asia due to perhaps exposure to similar, but not deadly, viruses over the years. The social measures alone simply don’t add up as why there’s such a huge difference between Europe and Asia on this and I think we are possibly beating ourselves up over being unable to beat this when it may simply be down to our immune systems and a need for vaccines.

    There are serious screw ups on public policy but I’m not sure that any more than this is going to be achieved. The only route out of this seems to be successful vaccination.

    I doubt it, Australia and NZ public health measures are very similar to alot of countries in Asia


  • #8559
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,132 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    TheDoctor wrote: »
    When do we think that will be available for group 14? :pac:

    https://www.gov.ie/en/publication/39038-provisional-vaccine-allocation-groups/

    Currently got to group 3
    They are bouncing around a bit at present, bits of 1,2,3,4 & 6! Once the over 70s are done things should settle and we'll see more orderly progression through the groups.


  • #8560
    NeuralNetwork
    Closed Accounts Posts: 727 ✭✭✭NeuralNetwork


    wadacrack wrote: »
    I doubt it, Australia and NZ public health measures are very similar to alot of countries in Asia

    Australia and NZ basically just sealed themselves off from the world entirely. That hasn’t been the case in various parts of Asia that have functioned without significant issues.

    Forgetting about very developed parts of Asia, what’s not adding up to me is that countries that would be described as developing world and have much less ability to self isolate, avoid mingling in work or other contexts etc and that have been open are still doing far better than places like say Norway or Germany, both of which are not places where you’d expect any issue with getting social healthcare systems working extremely well and where you’ve strong senses of social solidarity and rule following around issues like this.

    There has to be something more complicated going on than just simple measures. It’s run through some populations extremely rapidly, as if we’ve absolutely no immune response it, yet it hasn’t done that in some others.

    I suspect we’ll be seeing a more complex picture of this in 12 months time as the research catches up.

    It seems though the only escape from this in Ireland or Europe is going to be vaccines. We simply aren’t able to completely contain it.

    I mean what amounted to a few days of normal socialising, not huge festivals or rock concerts or something, caused an enormous spike and nearly wiped out our healthcare systems and killed large numbers of people.

    This is an extremely low density country and most people live in relatively spacious homes. It’s counterintuitive that it would run through the population that fast.

    You simply can’t live with a virus that deadly. It’s impossible.


  • #8561
    Ficheall
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,038 ✭✭✭Ficheall


    Bubbaclaus wrote: »
    I'd would say Group 14 will start in July, if I was to guess.
    2022, is it? :P


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  • #8562
    theballz
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,272 ✭✭✭theballz


    My dad got vaccinated today, I’ve seen him since Xmas. Is it wrong that I shed a little tear?


  • #8563
    CIARAN_BOYLE
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,595 ✭✭✭✭CIARAN_BOYLE


    vafankillar wrote: »
    how the **** are cases still staying so high? what are people up to for christ sake?

    Test positivity amoung close contacts is around 25% now compared to 12% in October.

    This is a sign that more transmissible variants are now widespread and case falls are incredibly slow.

    Around Christmas they were saying the UK variant was 50% of cases. Its now 95%.

    So if we take a day where cases were 6k. 3k UK variant and 3k old variant.

    The 3k Irish variant has fallen to around 50 while the 3k UK variant cases has fallen to around 900.


  • #8564
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 232 ✭✭ [Deleted User]


    mloc123 wrote: »
    Makes you wonder how and where people are still picking it up... 7 weeks into level 5

    In the first lockdown people were scared of the unknown and pretty much stayed at home.

    This time, people know that vaccines are here, that they're unlikely to get the virus, that if they get it they're unlikely to get sick from it, if they get sick they're unlikely to be hospitalised, and if they get hospitalised they're unlikely to die.

    Far from the "250,000 will die" hysteria that was being whipped up by the lockdowners in March, we have had 4,000 deaths.

    People were terrorised into compliance first time. Now, as we enter the fourth month of our three-week lockdown, people are angry. And angry voters are voters who won't listen.


  • #8565
    tucker1971
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 177 ✭✭tucker1971


    Everytime Micheal martin mentions further restrictions, his go to excuse is because of new variants.
    Does he realise the reason we have new variants is due to his failure to implement airport quarantine? Is he actually that thick that he dosent realise this?


  • #8566
    Bubbaclaus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,460 ✭✭✭Bubbaclaus


    Ficheall wrote: »
    2022, is it? :P

    Well based on the projections of 1m doses per month in Q2, and 1.1m or so done to the end of March, we will be mostly through the first 12 groups by the end of July 2021 and group 13 will be starting to ramp up.


  • #8567
    Ficheall
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,038 ✭✭✭Ficheall


    b0nk1e wrote: »
    Far from the "250,000 will die" hysteria that was being whipped up by the lockdowners in March, we have had 4,000 deaths.
    4000 deaths despite "the longest and strictest restrictions in the world"..


  • #8568
    Windmill100000
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 585 ✭✭✭Windmill100000


    Cork2021 wrote: »
    Excellent data once again from Israel

    https://twitter.com/ariehkovler/status/1363171631703687171?s=21

    Thanks so much for posting that. I'm a HCW two weeks post-vaccine. I hadn't realised the stats were so good, so again, thank you.


  • #8569
    Jim_Hodge
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,295 ✭✭✭✭Jim_Hodge


    theballz wrote: »
    My dad got vaccinated today, I’ve seen him since Xmas. Is it wrong that I shed a little tear?

    Not in the slightest. I may shed one myself when I get it.


  • #8570
    Ficheall
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,038 ✭✭✭Ficheall


    Bubbaclaus wrote: »
    Well based on the projections of 1m doses per month in Q2, and 1.1m or so done to the end of March, we will be mostly through the first 12 groups by the end of July 2021 and group 13 will be starting to ramp up.
    Well, I'll be very pleasantly surprised if they/you're right :)


  • #8571
    Windmill100000
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 585 ✭✭✭Windmill100000


    b0nk1e wrote: »
    In the first lockdown people were scared of the unknown and pretty much stayed at home.

    This time, people know that vaccines are here, that they're unlikely to get the virus, that if they get it they're unlikely to get sick from it, if they get sick they're unlikely to be hospitalised, and if they get hospitalised they're unlikely to die.

    Far from the "250,000 will die" hysteria that was being whipped up by the lockdowners in March, we have had 4,000 deaths.

    People were terrorised into compliance first time. Now, as we enter the fourth month of our three-week lockdown, people are angry. And angry voters are voters who won't listen.

    It was hysteria back then. None of us knew what we were dealing with, so the hysteria was understandable. I dont know why this is seen as a negative.


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  • #8572
    hotmail.com
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,435 ✭✭✭✭hotmail.com


    Ficheall wrote: »
    4000 deaths despite "the longest and strictest restrictions in the world"..

    A failure on every count. Long and cruel lockdown, high deaths, huge economic shock and vaccine slowness.

    What a disaster.


  • #8573
    jackboy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,072 ✭✭✭jackboy


    hotmail.com wrote: »
    A failure on every count. Long and cruel lockdown, high deaths, huge economic shock and vaccine slowness.

    What a disaster.

    Yet we still have people here claiming our approach is a success. I don’t know if it’s delusion or Stockholm syndrome.


  • #8574
    Dubit11
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 30 ✭Dubit11


    Huge numbers again i see. The amount of people out and about not bothering to adhere to the rules is frightening. I can see us above 2000 a day by the start of March tbh.


  • #8575
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 232 ✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Windmill100000 wrote: »
    It was hysteria back then. None of us knew what we were dealing with, so the hysteria was understandable. I dont know why this is seen as a negative.

    You can't think why terrorising people by giving interviews to the State broadcaster and the country's largest-circulation newspaper inaccurately stating that one in every 20 people in the country was going to die of Covid is a negative?


  • #8576
    Ficheall
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,038 ✭✭✭Ficheall


    jackboy wrote: »
    Yet we still have people here claiming our approach is a success. I don’t know if it’s delusion or Stockholm syndrome.
    I think most people fall on either side of the "they're imposing too many restrictions" or "they're not choosing/enforcing restrictions well". Top of my head, I can't think of anyone who would deem what we have done a "success", even if it was less crap than some other countries.


  • #8577
    NeuralNetwork
    Closed Accounts Posts: 727 ✭✭✭NeuralNetwork


    If we had just let it run riot - very large numbers of deaths probably wouldn’t be beyond the realms of possibly.

    A few days over Christmas caused absolute mayhem. Imagine if we had just continued business as usual for months? The country would have collapsed due to lack of healthcare and people being sick all over the place causing infrastructure management to become impossible and then you’d have had economic collapse.

    It has been badly handled in a lot of ways, particularly since Christmas, but I think we are in a rather dire situation. There isn’t any simple and easy solution to this.

    I’m not saying this is a defence of the government. I’m very frustrated with many of the decisions taken and the lack of decisive action in public policy, but it’s still an extremely difficult problem to solve and there are only least worst options.


  • #8578
    Jizique
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,211 ✭✭✭Jizique


    Ficheall wrote: »
    4000 deaths despite "the longest and strictest restrictions in the world"..

    What % of those were >90 or with underlying issues?


  • #8579
    Ohmeha
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,208 ✭✭✭Ohmeha


    National deaths/ICU/hospitalisation numbers for the past 4 weeks

    Average deaths showing clear reductions for 2 weeks, ICUs consistently dropping ~10% range per 7 days, hospitalisations consistently dropping ~20% range per 7 days

    Day Month Date Year Deaths Weekly 7 Day Av 7 Day % ICU Inc/Dec 7 Day Av 7 Day % Hosp Inc/Dec 7 Day Av 7 Day %
    Sunday January 24th 2021 23 365 52.14 36.19% 218 1 211.43 21.81% 1,931 39 1,934.86 8.66%
    Monday January 25th 2021 7 364 52.00 35.82% 219 1 214.14 18.12% 1,905 -26 1,924.86 4.79%
    Tuesday January 26th 2021 90 361 51.57 14.60% 216 -3 216.14 15.23% 1,750 -155 1,896.43 1.22%
    Wednesday January 27th 2021 54 354 50.57 13.10% 217 1 217.14 12.51% 1,670 -80 1,860.29 -1.85%
    Thursday January 28th 2021 47 350 50.00 4.17% 216 -1 217.43 9.03% 1,567 -103 1,806.57 -5.78%
    Friday January 29th 2021 48 346 49.43 2.37% 211 -5 216.29 5.80% 1,518 -49 1,747.57 -9.41%
    Saturday January 30th 2021 79 348 49.71 -1.97% 211 0 215.43 3.50% 1,492 -26 1,690.43 -12.61%
    Sunday January 31st 2021 15 340 48.57 -6.85% 211 0 214.43 1.42% 1,516 24 1,631.14 -15.70%
    Monday February 1st 2021 10 343 49.00 -5.77% 207 -4 212.71 -0.67% 1,436 -80 1,564.14 -18.74%
    Tuesday February 2nd 2021 101 354 50.57 -1.94% 207 0 211.43 -2.18% 1,388 -48 1,512.43 -20.25%
    Wednesday February 3rd 2021 94 394 56.29 11.30% 203 -4 209.43 -3.55% 1,334 -54 1,464.43 -21.28%
    Thursday February 4th 2021 75 422 60.29 20.57% 188 -15 205.43 -5.52% 1,284 -50 1,424.00 -21.18%
    Friday February 5th 2021 35 409 58.43 18.21% 181 -7 201.14 -7.00% 1,221 -63 1,381.57 -20.94%
    Saturday February 6th 2021 55 385 55.00 10.63% 177 -4 196.29 -8.89% 1,177 -44 1,336.57 -20.93%
    Sunday February 7th 2021 12 382 54.57 12.35% 178 1 191.57 -10.66% 1,204 27 1,292.00 -20.79%
    Monday February 8th 2021 6 378 54.00 10.20% 176 -2 187.14 -12.02% 1,211 7 1,259.86 -19.45%
    Tuesday February 9th 2021 68 345 49.29 -2.54% 182 6 183.57 -13.18% 1,104 -107 1,219.29 -19.38%
    Wednesday February 10th 2021 54 305 43.57 -22.59% 173 -9 179.29 -14.39% 1,032 -72 1,176.14 -19.69%
    Thursday February 11th 2021 52 282 40.29 -33.18% 172 -1 177.00 -13.84% 984 -48 1,133.29 -20.42%
    Friday February 12th 2021 23 270 38.57 -33.99% 173 1 175.86 -12.57% 959 -25 1,095.86 -20.68%
    Saturday February 13th 2021 66 281 40.14 -27.01% 171 -2 175.00 -10.84% 898 -61 1,056.00 -20.99%
    Sunday February 14th 2021 17 286 40.86 -25.13% 160 -11 172.43 -9.99% 899 1 1,012.43 -21.64%
    Monday February 15th 2021 0 280 40.00 -25.93% 157 -3 169.71 -9.31% 916 17 970.29 -22.98%
    Tuesday February 16th 2021 33 245 35.00 -28.99% 159 2 166.43 -9.34% 861 -55 935.57 -23.27%
    Wednesday February 17th 2021 57 248 35.43 -18.69% 154 -5 163.71 -8.69% 831 -30 906.86 -22.90%
    Thursday February 18th 2021 47 243 34.71 -13.83% 151 -3 160.71 -9.20% 771 -60 876.43 -22.66%
    Friday February 19th 2021 28 248 35.43 -8.15% 151 0 157.57 -10.40% 754 -17 847.14 -22.70%
    Saturday February 20th 2021 26 208 29.71 -25.98% 149 -2 154.43 -11.76% 719 -35 821.57 -22.20%


  • #8580
    Ficheall
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,038 ✭✭✭Ficheall


    Jizique wrote: »
    What % of those were >90 or with underlying issues?
    Did they remake "Logan's Run" last year or something?


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  • #8581
    zuutroy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,854 ✭✭✭zuutroy


    Dubit11 wrote: »
    Huge numbers again i see. The amount of people out and about not bothering to adhere to the rules is frightening. I can see us above 2000 a day by the start of March tbh.

    Yes, cases are going to almost triple in the next week. Savvy analysis there.


This discussion has been closed.
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