2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1

19-02-2021 09:08AM

If Bray did not improve during Celtic Tiger, which it didnt, I can't imagine it will change now.
Strange place, the seafront is quite nice, but the town is terrible.
Some very expensive houses full of people who travel somewhere else to shop and socialise.
Plenty of scumbags and junkies.
Id say it's as good as it's getting.

Hubertj · 19-02-2021 09:10AM

schmittel wrote: »

Zenify is spot on, there is a snob thing going on that Bray is full of scumbags, but I think that is less true now than it used to be, but as you say it persists.

Greystones boomed because that snob value was alive and well 20 years ago. Once the dart extended, those who fancied southside coastal living but priced out of Dalkey etc flocked to Greystones and skipped Bray.

However I think over the next 20 years Bray will be playing catch up. It has everything going for it.

Better transport links than Greystones.

Better amenity/infrastructure potential. The main street and side streets are a bit dreary now, with things like vaping and fix your mobile phone shops, but it would not take much to transform it. Greystones is just one main st full of coffee shops.

The seafront is far nicer and more functional than Greystones - it is a feature in Bray whereas Greystones feels like it has its back to the sea.

The area around that Ellerslie villas house is really nice, leafy and mature, short walk to the seafront, bars, restaurants and the dart.

Sure there are some less attractive parts with some dodgier people but they are no closer than the same issue in the premium southside locations - eg Killiney/Ballybrack.

It would not take many well heeled Dubliners to move in, bringing more disposable income that will see the vaping shops etc give way to something more upmarket, and transform Bray into something really quite special.

If you look at the development of south Dublin/North Wicklow over the past 50 years the glaring anomaly is Bray. I cannot see it lasting too much longer!

Agree with all of this. I’ve spent a lot of time in bray over last 20 years as have friends from there. It has improved significantly. In the past there were a lot of issues with fassaroe etc but not anymore.
No Starbucks though

hometruths · 19-02-2021 09:26AM

Hubertj wrote: »

Agree with all of this. I’ve spent a lot of time in bray over last 20 years as have friends from there. It has improved significantly. In the past there were a lot of issues with fassaroe etc but not anymore.
No Starbucks though

Your friends obviously live in the smart bit. In the shopping centre however...

Hubertj · 19-02-2021 09:37AM

schmittel wrote: »

Your friends obviously live in the smart bit. In the shopping centre however...

Speechless

Fuzzy_Dunlop · 19-02-2021 09:38AM

Sweet.Science wrote: »

It appears lockdown is continuing until May meaning house sales will be on hold until then . No viewings no surveys not sure how sales will be able to go through

Where did you see this?

Flibble · 19-02-2021 09:46AM

Fuzzy_Dunlop wrote: »

Where did you see this?

Tis in the news
https://www.thejournal.ie/covid-restrictions-may-5359185-Feb2021/

Not mentioning house viewings specifically, but are most likely still part of it.

Gael23 · 19-02-2021 10:34AM

Do we know what this means for viewings?

MacronvFrugals · 19-02-2021 10:45AM

Mick Clifford on the LDA in this mornings Examiner

Mick Clifford: 'Affordable' must have meaning in new Land Development Bill

However, eyes often glaze over when quangos or acronyms and/or the word “development” is thrown out there. And perhaps some people would like eyes to glaze over so they can speed past any legitimate questions and worries.

So it went, to a large extent, during the conception of Nama. Today, Nama is the focus of a major investigation into its disposal of assets in the North. Questions are still being asked over its interpretation of doing the State some service.

parts of the LDA would not be covered by the Freedom of Information Act

The agency plans to set up subsidiaries for joint ventures, and these entities will be exempt from any public scrutiny, including the FOI Act.

Can you smell the lawyers warming up for a raft of expensive inquiries in the future when something goes pear-shaped?

https://www.irishexaminer.com/opinion/commentanalysis/arid-40229570.html

Sweet.Science · 19-02-2021 10:46AM

Gael23 wrote: »

Do we know what this means for viewings?

I really dont know how they can extend the ban on viewings but looks like it will be . You are literally stopping people buying homes for a year

Cyrus · 19-02-2021 10:51AM

schmittel wrote: »

Zenify is spot on, there is a snob thing going on that Bray is full of scumbags, but I think that is less true now than it used to be, but as you say it persists.

Greystones boomed because that snob value was alive and well 20 years ago. Once the dart extended, those who fancied southside coastal living but priced out of Dalkey etc flocked to Greystones and skipped Bray.

However I think over the next 20 years Bray will be playing catch up. It has everything going for it.

Better transport links than Greystones.

Better amenity/infrastructure potential. The main street and side streets are a bit dreary now, with things like vaping and fix your mobile phone shops, but it would not take much to transform it. Greystones is just one main st full of coffee shops.

The seafront is far nicer and more functional than Greystones - it is a feature in Bray whereas Greystones feels like it has its back to the sea.

The area around that Ellerslie villas house is really nice, leafy and mature, short walk to the seafront, bars, restaurants and the dart.

Sure there are some less attractive parts with some dodgier people but they are no closer than the same issue in the premium southside locations - eg Killiney/Ballybrack.

It would not take many well heeled Dubliners to move in, bringing more disposable income that will see the vaping shops etc give way to something more upmarket, and transform Bray into something really quite special.

If you look at the development of south Dublin/North Wicklow over the past 50 years the glaring anomaly is Bray. I cannot see it lasting too much longer!

i cant say id be totally surprised if you were right, and there are some really nice parts, that house i linked on king edward road (and there is a whole road of them) is a stunner and reasonable money compared to similar a few km away.

Smiley11 · 19-02-2021 10:55AM

Sweet.Science wrote: »

I really dont know how they can extend the ban on viewings but looks like it will be . You are literally stopping people buying homes for a year

Its awful. I actually don't know what we're going to do because our kids need stability. 14 months & counting & if we can't view a vacant house for 8 more weeks, we won't be in our home this christmas either. I think the market reaction to this would potentially be hysterical...in the worst sense of the word.

We're one family of thousands of people in a similar position.

Digiteer · 19-02-2021 11:07AM

Yep, far too many developments atm, 1’000’s of apts coming online in 2020.!!

Digiteer · 19-02-2021 11:10AM

Don’t think so, there are literally thousands of vacant properties particularly in Dublin.!! This government has manufactured homelessness & overpriced homes to facilitate the market, nothing more. The only thing keeping everything going is Immigration, when that stops so will the economy.!!

Sweet.Science · 19-02-2021 11:22AM

Smiley11 wrote: »

Its awful. I actually don't know what we're going to do because our kids need stability. 14 months & counting & if we can't view a vacant house for 8 more weeks, we won't be in our home this christmas either. I think the market reaction to this would potentially be hysterical...in the worst sense of the word.

We're one family of thousands of people in a similar position.

We are the same. Sale agreed in December but vendor cant view houses of her own

decreds · 19-02-2021 11:36AM

1percent wrote: »

I can't see China being a global Hegemon, regional yes but they don't have the force projection abilities to be global. They have a large army but mainly conscripts and a very limited blue water navy. The concept of Mianzi or to save face means its all about the show, well put together young lads with polished guns and big hats. They are completely untested in an actual fight.

I would compare them to Germany (less the war guilt) not the US, they will be the dominant force in their theater, and important on the global stage but but not the dominant force. This will begin when the US begins to retreat in on itself either after an economic, military or political shock and will become a regional power. Taiwan will be left to fend for itself and will unite after a dogged resistance, Korea will enter their economic orbit and possibly reunite under Chinese guidance, indochina will become Chinas Mexico more so than it already is.

The big contender will not be Europe or the US it will be India! I expect the main source of conflict will be between the two of these powers and India has been a sub continent whose people have nearly always been subjects to an outside ruling class.

I think the coming century will be one of regional powers, US, Europe and China each working with and against the other two depending on the prevailing needs and threats of the time. The middle east will be left to smash itself to pieces as their oil is no longer needed and maybe Iran or Turkey could build it up to become a 4th power.

Africa is where it will be at, and I think Europe has the advantage there, they speak our languages and we have enough colonial guilt that it will be an equal economic trade as opposed to the Chinese debt diplomacy as we see now with the belt and roads.

How does this affect irish property? Well the Chinese might build a sizable portfolio but if they start playing silly bugger they would be easy enough to be ignored. As they say out east, the mountain may be big, but it is far away.

Decent post, but i disagree on the suggestion of a Africa/Europe partnership . China is building infrastructure all over Africa right now and are mostly not even charging a cent for it, the exchange is the Chinese will build it and be granted citizenship.

China will have Africa under their thumb within a decade.

Villa05 · 19-02-2021 11:50AM

Indo headline
Housing crisis: Central banks doubts threaten plan for 'cheaper' homes

Everyone bar the dogs on the street are warning against this plan
Note how the advisers are viewed negatively through the headline

Sorry can't be bothered linking the tripe, behind paywall

PropQueries · 19-02-2021 12:22PM

Good time for AIB to release this information given that Ulster Bank will be all over the news this weekend. 92% of the 4,000 loans in the portfolio sale are private dwelling homes. According to the Irish Times:

"AIB sells portfolio of private home loans to Mars Capital for €400m"

"AIB said the portfolio consists of 4,000 non-performing loans, with an average time since first default of 10 years, while 90 per cent of the portfolio first entered default over seven years ago.

Some 92 per cent of the portfolio is made up of private dwelling homes, while 5 per cent are buy-to-let properties and 3 per cent are mixed use property. The average balance per customer is €300,000, with an average arrears amount of €95,000."

Link to Irish Times article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/financial-services/aib-sells-portfolio-of-private-home-loans-to-mars-capital-for-400m-1.4489433

Zenify · 19-02-2021 12:29PM

Villa05 wrote: »

Indo headline
Housing crisis: Central banks doubts threaten plan for 'cheaper' homes

Everyone bar the dogs on the street are warning against this plan
Note how the advisers are viewed negatively through the headline

Sorry can't be bothered linking the tripe, behind paywall

In my mind the only reason this bill would be passed by a sensible person is due to corruption.

I'm not usually a government basher but this is just crazy. It's simply a workaround the central bank rules with tax payers money... putting more money into the pockets of landowners and builders. At the expense of house buyers and tax payers.

It's just policy after policy to stimulate demand. I get the logic of higher prices equals more building but we can encourage it in others ways. Make it more expensive to hold onto residential land. It's about carrot and STICK. We need far more stick!

awec · 19-02-2021 12:48PM

schmittel wrote: »

Zenify is spot on, there is a snob thing going on that Bray is full of scumbags, but I think that is less true now than it used to be, but as you say it persists.

Greystones boomed because that snob value was alive and well 20 years ago. Once the dart extended, those who fancied southside coastal living but priced out of Dalkey etc flocked to Greystones and skipped Bray.

However I think over the next 20 years Bray will be playing catch up. It has everything going for it.

Better transport links than Greystones.

Better amenity/infrastructure potential. The main street and side streets are a bit dreary now, with things like vaping and fix your mobile phone shops, but it would not take much to transform it. Greystones is just one main st full of coffee shops.

The seafront is far nicer and more functional than Greystones - it is a feature in Bray whereas Greystones feels like it has its back to the sea.

The area around that Ellerslie villas house is really nice, leafy and mature, short walk to the seafront, bars, restaurants and the dart.

Sure there are some less attractive parts with some dodgier people but they are no closer than the same issue in the premium southside locations - eg Killiney/Ballybrack.

It would not take many well heeled Dubliners to move in, bringing more disposable income that will see the vaping shops etc give way to something more upmarket, and transform Bray into something really quite special.

If you look at the development of south Dublin/North Wicklow over the past 50 years the glaring anomaly is Bray. I cannot see it lasting too much longer!

Bray will eventually be consumed into south Dublin.

cnocbui · 19-02-2021 12:51PM

Sweet.Science wrote: »

It appears lockdown is continuing until May meaning house sales will be on hold until then . No viewings no surveys not sure how sales will be able to go through

No house viewings, no school for your kids, but that all important NCT check of your car is still open for business. Absolutely unbelievable.

I can only imagine the company with the contract has threatened legal action and the government has caved.

awec · 19-02-2021 12:53PM

cnocbui wrote: »

No house viewings, no school for your kids, but that all important NCT check of your car is still open for business. Absolutely unbelievable.

I can only imagine the company with the contract has threatened legal action and the government has caved.

The conspiracy theories on here are wild sometimes.

cnocbui · 19-02-2021 12:54PM

Digiteer wrote: »

Don’t think so, there are literally thousands of vacant properties particularly in Dublin.!! This government has manufactured homelessness & overpriced homes to facilitate the market, nothing more. The only thing keeping everything going is Immigration, when that stops so will the economy.!!

How do you know they are habitable?

hometruths · 19-02-2021 12:54PM

awec wrote: »

Bray will eventually be consumed into south Dublin.

Agreed, but will it be a desirable part of south Dublin? I think so.

hometruths · 19-02-2021 12:55PM

cnocbui wrote: »

How do you know they are habitable?

Because this has been checked by the CSO.

cnocbui · 19-02-2021 12:56PM

awec wrote: »

The conspiracy theories on here are wild sometimes.

Fair enough, but if the pandemic is serious enough to cancel schooling for children, why is it not serious enough to cancel an unnecessary frippery like the NCT, which was closed for the first lockdown?

I'd say house viewings and people's accomodation needs were fundamental and far more important.

cnocbui · 19-02-2021 12:58PM

schmittel wrote: »

Because this has been checked by the CSO.

How did they check? They know the plumbing is in good order, there is heating that works?

I own an unoccupied building not in Dublin and there is no f'n way in hell the CSO would have a clue about it or what state it is in.

awec · 19-02-2021 01:00PM

cnocbui wrote: »

Fair enough, but if the pandemic is serious enough to cancel schooling for children, why is it not serious enough to cancel an unnecessary frippery like the NCT, which was closed for the first lockdown?

I'd say house viewings and people's accomodation needs were fundamental and far more important.

NCT was open for much of the first lockdown.

Things like car servicing etc were always deemed essential.

cnocbui · 19-02-2021 01:06PM

awec wrote: »

NCT was open for much of the first lockdown.

Things like car servicing etc were always deemed essential.

My NCT due June wasn't bookable and was extended by four months. Car servicing is essential, as is accommodation, but the NCT isn't.

Villa05 · 19-02-2021 01:12PM

PropQueries wrote:

"AIB sells portfolio of private home loans to Mars Capital for â‚¬400m"

It is puzzling that one arm of the state is paying top rates for housing for social affordable while a bank 83% controlled by the state is selling at greater than 50% discount (excluding arrears)

I know it will not increase stock but neither will hap, or buying existing units from developers

It appears the government don't want to loose that status of the country that keeps on giving to private business

Zenify wrote:

It's just policy after policy to stimulate demand. I get the logic of higher prices equals more building but we can encourage it in others ways. Make it more expensive to hold onto residential land. It's about carrot and STICK. We need far more stick!

It's a bit carrot, cake, icing, and cherry on top

hometruths · 19-02-2021 01:13PM

PropQueries wrote: »

Good time for AIB to release this information given that Ulster Bank will be all over the news this weekend. 92% of the 4,000 loans in the portfolio sale are private dwelling homes. According to the Irish Times:

"AIB sells portfolio of private home loans to Mars Capital for €400m"

"AIB said the portfolio consists of 4,000 non-performing loans, with an average time since first default of 10 years, while 90 per cent of the portfolio first entered default over seven years ago.

Some 92 per cent of the portfolio is made up of private dwelling homes, while 5 per cent are buy-to-let properties and 3 per cent are mixed use property. The average balance per customer is €300,000, with an average arrears amount of €95,000."

Link to Irish Times article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/financial-services/aib-sells-portfolio-of-private-home-loans-to-mars-capital-for-400m-1.4489433

This right here is everything that is f*cked up about our property market.

4,000 loans with an average balance of 300,000 means total loan book is valued at 1.2bn outstanding.

Mars Capital have bought this for a third of its value, meaning AIB and the taxpayer have booked a 66% or 800m loss and Mars will make a fortune.

There is nowhere in the country that a 300k property bought even at the height of the boom is worth only 100k. So even if every single mortgage was a 100% bought at top of market, AIB and the taxpayer would have got a better deal by repoing and selling the asset.

To add insult to injury they feel the need to bury the bad news not because they're making a poor decision, but because they're worried about vulture fund criticism.

The average time of default is 10 years. 90% of the portfolio entered default over 7 years ago.

The raft of unintended consequences as a result of our naive no repossessions policy is the single biggest factor causing the current housing problems.

This would not happen in any other country, whereas we happily support it. It is mind blowing.

No wonder the vulture funds think we're the gift that keeps on giving.

2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

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2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1