2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

Cyrus

Stark wrote: »

If banks here would grow a pair and push more people to actually pay their mortgages, we might not need vulture funds and high interest rates.

Plenty of stories of people living in very lavish houses and making no attempt whatsoever to meet repayments. Force sell the house and make them live in an affordable apartment like the rest of us.

and there are probably more people in non lavish houses doing the same but the newspapers arent quite as interested in those :pac:

decreds

Seeing plenty of second-hand apartments hit the market in Dublin this week, most are asking below current market rate. Are we seeing more landlords leave the market?

The_Conductor

decreds wrote: »

Seeing plenty of second-hand apartments hit the market in Dublin this week, most are asking below current market rate. Are we seeing more landlords leave the market?

There are a large cohort of non-FTBs out there desperately trying to trade up or down- who have been excluded from the market for a while, who are also in the equation- however, yes, I imagine a sizable majority of the apartments hitting the market are landlords getting the hell out of the sector.........

jill_valentine

decreds wrote: »

Seeing plenty of second-hand apartments hit the market in Dublin this week, most are asking below current market rate. Are we seeing more landlords leave the market?

If one of them would hurry up and come into my area and price range in the next day or two, that would be just the job.

I would say it's landlords, yes, you're probably right. The extended lockdowns etc seem to have sunk in that this stuff isn't going away overnight, and landlords are likely the only ones in a position to sell given the circumstances.

Almost all the ones I'm seeing pop up are BidX1 though, so sadly no use to most. I don't think this is the first trickle of a dam bursting necessarily.

Stark

What's BidX1?

As an aside, a property I'm interested in (for the purposes of being my primary residence) is on auctioneera.ie . Not sure how sensible it is to buy a property through that route.

Villa05

Timing belt wrote:

None of the banks are making much money because of low interest rates and are cutting costs wherever they can. (I.e. redundancy).

Would the pensions/investment industry be in a similar predicament if returns of up to 3% expected to be the norm for the future

jill_valentine

Stark wrote: »

What's BidX1?

As an aside, a property I'm interested in (for the purposes of being my primary residence) is on auctioneera.ie . Not sure how sensible it is to buy a property through that route.

BidX1 auction properties in fairly big waves at a time, often sight unseen. There can sometimes be something funky going on with them, but you might not get a chance to check. Because of the auction rules you pretty much have to be a cash buyer and pay right away.

Auctioneera, despite the name, sell stuff by the traditional private treaty route it's just formatted like an auction from the buyer's point of view. I've only viewed with them once so far, grand but no frills as promised, you're left to your own devices and can mail in further queries after, the guy on site is basically a Deliveroo driver.

Timing belt

Villa05 wrote: »

Would the pensions/investment industry be in a similar predicament if returns of up to 3% expected to be the norm for the future

If we stay in a low interest environment for a long time then companies will focus more on cost cutting as it will be easier to cut costs than grow income. With investments you will see people taking more risk to get a return and people will be less likely to invest in pensions as they will struggle to grow the pension pot and will have lower returns come retirement. All this makes property more attractive to invest in.

jim-mcdee

you would be mad not to buy now imo. rents are high and its much cheaper to buy. i was paying 1300pm and my mortgage on a similar place is 1100 and in 25 years ill own it

jill_valentine

jim-mcdee wrote: »

you would be mad not to buy now imo. rents are high and its much cheaper to buy. i was paying 1300pm and my mortgage on a similar place is 1100 and in 25 years ill own it

I mean... we'd all love to buy, it's not not-wanting to buy that's the problem I promise lol

Villa05

MacronvFrugals wrote:

Vulture fund adviser: "Ireland is the gift that keeps giving"

That's been said quiet a few times by different businesses. We are indeed a great country for business at the expense of citizens of course

Stark wrote:

If banks here would grow a pair and push more people to actually pay their mortgages, we might not need vulture funds and high interest rates.

Blocked politically, surprise

jim-mcdee wrote:

you would be mad not to buy now imo. rents are high and its much cheaper to buy. i was paying 1300pm and my mortgage on a similar place is 1100 and in 25 years ill own it

High rents are the gun to the head to buy now.

Timing belt

Villa05 wrote: »

That's been said quiet a few times by different businesses. We are indeed a great country for business at the expense of citizens of course


Blocked politically, surprise






High rents are the gun to the head to buy now.

If the venture funds didn’t buy the debt from the banks the government would have had to pump billions more into them so they wouldn’t fail the ECB stress tests so don’t see how it is at the expense of citizens.

MacronvFrugals

Interesting article on the Australian market, i think we're giving the "juicing" a go to!

The Australian property market is booming but the gains are based on 'massive' debts

Dr Cameron Murray, a post-doctoral fellow at the Henry Halloran Trust at the University of Sydney, said what is happening in Australia has to be seen in a global context.

“Our macro-stabilisation policy works by juicing house prices,” Murray said.

“This is a policy most central banks have adopted. Secondly, we’re just at that point in the cycle. The best parallel to the situation now is 2004. I think we’re in a very similar phase right now. Sydney boomed early, then it tapered off. Then the rest of the country shot up for four years in line with the broad global house price cycle.

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/feb/16/the-australian-property-market-is-booming-but-the-gains-are-based-on-massive-debts

hometruths

Timing belt wrote: »

If the venture funds didn’t buy the debt from the banks the government would have had to pump billions more into them so they wouldn’t fail the ECB stress tests so don’t see how it is at the expense of citizens.

Or the banks could have repoed the properties and sold the security rather than the loan. And if they had done so in 08/9 when things turned to sh*t, they would not have had so many problem loans that they then needed to sell.

poker--addict

Stark wrote: »

What's BidX1?

As an aside, a property I'm interested in (for the purposes of being my primary residence) is on auctioneera.ie . Not sure how sensible it is to buy a property through that route.

Why?

Cyrus

schmittel wrote: »

Or the banks could have repoed the properties and sold the security rather than the loan. And if they had done so in 08/9 when things turned to sh*t, they would not have had so many problem loans that they then needed to sell.

well it was sell the loans or sell a load of property, loans are probably easier sold.

hometruths

Cyrus wrote: »

well it was sell the loans or sell a load of property, loans are probably easier sold.

Ireland was the gift that kept on giving to the vulture funds because the banks didn’t have much choice. I’ve no doubt they would have preferred to repossess and sell the properties.

Cyrus

schmittel wrote: »

Ireland was the gift that kept on giving to the vulture funds because the banks didn’t have much choice. I’ve no doubt they would have preferred to repossess and sell the properties.

maybe it would have been quite the undertaking,

personally id welcome easy repossession and non recourse lending, it would simplify things and make banks a lot more prudent in their lending.

hometruths

Cyrus wrote: »

maybe it would have been quite the undertaking,

personally id welcome easy repossession and non recourse lending, it would simplify things and make banks a lot more prudent in their lending.

Quite the undertaking indeed, but no doubt preferable.

Agree with you on easy repos and non recourse lending. If I were housing minister that would be amongst the first changes I’d make.

Gradius

That Ulster bank thing, the implication of negative interest rates, an artificially propped up property market (imo) pandemic, employment, schools and so on...

Things are looking VERY ropey.

All individual interests aside, the government here and elsewhere (opposition or otherwise) have made a complete trollocks for the average persons situation. Things are just out of hand now with no semblance of control or intelligent direction, stuff is just "happening".

Just to add, the worst outcome I can see coming down the line is that the economy collapses (as opposed to a controlled, sensible correction), the average person is locked out of housing, and the door is left swinging wide open for foreign money to come in and buy up more of the country...which will sustain ridiculous prices while siphoning off Irish people's money to God knows where. A complete decline in nationhood that's exponential. It's worst case scenario and I wish I had faith that ANY government here would step into prevent it, but if anything they're likely to encourage it.

combat14

town centres are well and truly dead on their feet at the minute we have to reopen everything back up shortly or we are in serious trouble - high house prices are simply an illusion at the minute built on a house of cards

cnocbui

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Interesting article on the Australian market, i think we're giving the "juicing" a go to!

The Australian property market is booming but the gains are based on 'massive' debts

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/feb/16/the-australian-property-market-is-booming-but-the-gains-are-based-on-massive-debts

As opposed to other times when house price gains obviously aren't based on massive debt /s :rolleyes:

And as I pointed out in my earlier reposte that no one liked, if you showed the good Dr Ireland's books, he'd likely faint.

Villa05

Timing belt wrote:

If the venture funds didn’t buy the debt from the banks the government would have had to pump billions more into them so they wouldn’t fail the ECB stress tests so don’t see how it is at the expense of citizens.

Firesale of loans is fine but why are we putting the cherry on top of no tax on profits/rents

That is definitely at citizens expense

Surely that is the gift their referring too

decreds

Gradius wrote: »

That Ulster bank thing, the implication of negative interest rates, an artificially propped up property market (imo) pandemic, employment, schools and so on...

Things are looking VERY ropey.

All individual interests aside, the government here and elsewhere (opposition or otherwise) have made a complete trollocks for the average persons situation. Things are just out of hand now with no semblance of control or intelligent direction, stuff is just "happening".

Just to add, the worst outcome I can see coming down the line is that the economy collapses (as opposed to a controlled, sensible correction), the average person is locked out of housing, and the door is left swinging wide open for foreign money to come in and buy up more of the country...which will sustain ridiculous prices while siphoning off Irish people's money to God knows where. A complete decline in nationhood that's exponential. It's worst case scenario and I wish I had faith that ANY government here would step into prevent it, but if anything they're likely to encourage it.

Very much this. This government is very much anti Irish and would sell us down the swanny for a quick buck.


Not to make this thread full on doom scrolling for some but i agree with this poster for all reasons listed plus many more. We have never been in a more precarious position when it comes to housing, the economy and society at large.



I agree with the term "artificially propped up property market" and i think this is the sole reason we have not witnessed a proper healthy/natural correction (and before someone shouts "but supply is so low", supply was even lower when prices were near rock bottom after the GFC). Due to the market being artificially propped up i do not see a huge drop in prices while all these lockdowns are in play, it will likely happen months or a year after we exit and most likely will coincide with the next GE.


It will be a bumpy ride that's for sure. Anyone thinking of buying an investment property now should think twice.

decreds

cnocbui wrote: »

As opposed to other times when house price gains obviously aren't based on massive debt /s :rolleyes:

And as I pointed out in my earlier reposte that no one liked, if you showed the good Dr Ireland's books, he'd likely faint.

No one claimed Ireland was the poster boy for the property market, in fact quite the opposite.



Australia's property market reminds me of Ireland during the Celtic Tiger days. Most people i know who own property there have multiple mortgages on multiple properties and are heavily leveraged, to say the least.

thefridge2006

decreds wrote: »

Seeing plenty of second-hand apartments hit the market in Dublin this week, most are asking below current market rate. Are we seeing more landlords leave the market?

I'm seeing a lot more stock in general hitting daft

cnocbui

decreds wrote: »

No one claimed Ireland was the poster boy for the property market, in fact quite the opposite.



Australia's property market reminds me of Ireland during the Celtic Tiger days. Most people i know who own property there have multiple mortgages on multiple properties and are heavily leveraged, to say the least.

And if you take note of the last time Australia had a property price correction on the scale of Ireland's in 2008/9, you'll soon see why not too many people in Australia are concerned.

Australia has been in a property price bubble for the last 60 years. Warnings of it imminently popping have been surfacing regularly for at least the last 20 years.

thefridge2006

Gradius wrote: »

That Ulster bank thing, the implication of negative interest rates, an artificially propped up property market (imo) pandemic, employment, schools and so on...

Things are looking VERY ropey.

All individual interests aside, the government here and elsewhere (opposition or otherwise) have made a complete trollocks for the average persons situation. Things are just out of hand now with no semblance of control or intelligent direction, stuff is just "happening".

Just to add, the worst outcome I can see coming down the line is that the economy collapses (as opposed to a controlled, sensible correction), the average person is locked out of housing, and the door is left swinging wide open for foreign money to come in and buy up more of the country...which will sustain ridiculous prices while siphoning off Irish people's money to God knows where. A complete decline in nationhood that's exponential. It's worst case scenario and I wish I had faith that ANY government here would step into prevent it, but if anything they're likely to encourage it.

I agree with this.... all the ducks are lining up in a row... for disaster.
Too many wolves at the door for anything other than a huge crash and the Gov don't even know where to start, so much happening too fast.

decreds

cnocbui wrote: »

And if you take note of the last time Australia had a property price correction on the scale of Ireland's in 2008/9, you'll soon see why not too many people in Australia are concerned.

Australia has been in a property price bubble for the last 60 years. Warnings of it imminently popping have been surfacing regularly for at least the last 20 years.

Just because it didn't happen recently doesn't mean it will not occur.



I hope it doesn't as i know many people there but to think Australia is somehow exempt to market cycles and their subsequent corrections/crashes (especially when highly leveraged) is slightly ignorant.

MacronvFrugals

cnocbui wrote: »

And if you take note of the last time Australia had a property price correction on the scale of Ireland's in 2008/9, you'll soon see why not too many people in Australia are concerned.

Australia has been in a property price bubble for the last 60 years. Warnings of it imminently popping have been surfacing regularly for at least the last 20 years.

China saved them in 2009 in fairness by buying every last piece of material their mines could produce.