2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

DataDude

Cyrus wrote: »

Church road is a bit of a rubbish location if I’m honest plenty of big detached houses but it’s the road to cherrywood now and not walking distance to anything worthwhile .

Not a Killiney expert but just always had it in my head that Church Road was ‘nice’. Having done some scrolling on google maps - you’re right, thanks! Would likely have been too much of a stretch anyways!

hometruths

Cyrus wrote: »

Houses over 1m are very sticky in bray there were some crackers on king Edward road that were a third of what they would have been in Killiney / dalkey and they took an age to shift

Yep Bray has reputational issues and I guess 1m+ is a tough sell.

I have this chat with my wife regularly trying to convince her that Bray will be the next big thing, but she’s not buying it. I don’t get the disdain for the place. I could quite happily live there.

1percent

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

A stat that always blows me away, 2008 0 KMs of high speed rail 2018- 15,000KMs all done with Australian Iron ore.

The last 200 years have been an anomaly they will likely regain their normal spot as the hegemonic power soon enough, as worrying as that sounds.

I can't see China being a global Hegemon, regional yes but they don't have the force projection abilities to be global. They have a large army but mainly conscripts and a very limited blue water navy. The concept of Mianzi or to save face means its all about the show, well put together young lads with polished guns and big hats. They are completely untested in an actual fight.

I would compare them to Germany (less the war guilt) not the US, they will be the dominant force in their theater, and important on the global stage but but not the dominant force. This will begin when the US begins to retreat in on itself either after an economic, military or political shock and will become a regional power. Taiwan will be left to fend for itself and will unite after a dogged resistance, Korea will enter their economic orbit and possibly reunite under Chinese guidance, indochina will become Chinas Mexico more so than it already is.

The big contender will not be Europe or the US it will be India! I expect the main source of conflict will be between the two of these powers and India has been a sub continent whose people have nearly always been subjects to an outside ruling class.

I think the coming century will be one of regional powers, US, Europe and China each working with and against the other two depending on the prevailing needs and threats of the time. The middle east will be left to smash itself to pieces as their oil is no longer needed and maybe Iran or Turkey could build it up to become a 4th power.

Africa is where it will be at, and I think Europe has the advantage there, they speak our languages and we have enough colonial guilt that it will be an equal economic trade as opposed to the Chinese debt diplomacy as we see now with the belt and roads.

How does this affect irish property? Well the Chinese might build a sizable portfolio but if they start playing silly bugger they would be easy enough to be ignored. As they say out east, the mountain may be big, but it is far away.

awec

PropQueries wrote: »

If the so-called vulture funds do buy all the ulster bank loans (makes sense IMO), Ireland will most likely then just be a wholly owned subsidiary of these funds. A country in name only IMO

Looks like there is a lot of interest in Ulster Bank's loan book from the other banks.

https://www.independent.ie/business/aib-ready-to-buy-ulster-banks-crown-jewels-40107500.html

TLDR: AIB want their business and corporate loans. PTSB + other small banks interested in their SME and mortgages.

Zenify

schmittel wrote: »

Yep Bray has reputational issues and I guess 1m+ is a tough sell.

I have this chat with my wife regularly trying to convince her that Bray will be the next big thing, but she’s not buying it. I don’t get the disdain for the place. I could quite happily live there.

Bray is a stunning place. I think most people acknowledge that. The issue is the people.

Galwayhurl

awec wrote: »

Looks like there is a lot of interest in Ulster Bank's loan book from the other banks.

https://www.independent.ie/business/aib-ready-to-buy-ulster-banks-crown-jewels-40107500.html

TLDR: AIB want their business and corporate loans. PTSB + other small banks interested in their SME and mortgages.

The government needs to make PTSB the buyer of the UB customers and loans and make a proper 3rd Banking entity.

Otherwise PTSB dies and BOI and AIB clean up and revert to being a duopoly.

Sweet.Science

It appears lockdown is continuing until May meaning house sales will be on hold until then . No viewings no surveys not sure how sales will be able to go through

Cyrus

DataDude wrote: »

Not a Killiney expert but just always had it in my head that Church Road was ‘nice’. Having done some scrolling on google maps - you’re right, thanks! Would likely have been too much of a stretch anyways!

Yeah don’t get me wrong there’s nothing ‘wrong’ with it plenty of nice houses but it was a more premium location in the past rather than now. As prime Killiney goes it’s at the bottom imo.

If you are looking in the area and want a steer on anything feel free to send me a pm .

They weren’t to most people’s taste but when you consider what the new build condor houses sold for at a similar size that church road house is a good 20-25 percent too expensive.

Cyrus

schmittel wrote: »

Yep Bray has reputational issues and I guess 1m+ is a tough sell.

I have this chat with my wife regularly trying to convince her that Bray will be the next big thing, but she’s not buying it. I don’t get the disdain for the place. I could quite happily live there.

I think your wife is right , for some reason the issue with bray persists .

Something like this should be a quick sell if you consider what 1.6m gets you around but it never is

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/silverdale-king-edward-road-bray-county-wicklow-a98-x650/4461457#&gid=1&pid=5

It’s amazing how much better greystones does given its much poorer transport links .

hometruths

Zenify wrote: »

Bray is a stunning place. I think most people acknowledge that. The issue is the people.

Cyrus wrote: »

I think your wife is right , for some reason the issue with bray persists .

Something like this should be a quick sell if you consider what 1.6m gets you around but it never is

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/silverdale-king-edward-road-bray-county-wicklow-a98-x650/4461457#&gid=1&pid=5

It’s amazing how much better greystones does given its much poorer transport links .

Zenify is spot on, there is a snob thing going on that Bray is full of scumbags, but I think that is less true now than it used to be, but as you say it persists.

Greystones boomed because that snob value was alive and well 20 years ago. Once the dart extended, those who fancied southside coastal living but priced out of Dalkey etc flocked to Greystones and skipped Bray.

However I think over the next 20 years Bray will be playing catch up. It has everything going for it.

Better transport links than Greystones.

Better amenity/infrastructure potential. The main street and side streets are a bit dreary now, with things like vaping and fix your mobile phone shops, but it would not take much to transform it. Greystones is just one main st full of coffee shops.

The seafront is far nicer and more functional than Greystones - it is a feature in Bray whereas Greystones feels like it has its back to the sea.

The area around that Ellerslie villas house is really nice, leafy and mature, short walk to the seafront, bars, restaurants and the dart.

Sure there are some less attractive parts with some dodgier people but they are no closer than the same issue in the premium southside locations - eg Killiney/Ballybrack.

It would not take many well heeled Dubliners to move in, bringing more disposable income that will see the vaping shops etc give way to something more upmarket, and transform Bray into something really quite special.

If you look at the development of south Dublin/North Wicklow over the past 50 years the glaring anomaly is Bray. I cannot see it lasting too much longer!

If Bray did not improve during Celtic Tiger, which it didnt, I can't imagine it will change now.
Strange place, the seafront is quite nice, but the town is terrible.
Some very expensive houses full of people who travel somewhere else to shop and socialise.
Plenty of scumbags and junkies.
Id say it's as good as it's getting.

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

Zenify is spot on, there is a snob thing going on that Bray is full of scumbags, but I think that is less true now than it used to be, but as you say it persists.

Greystones boomed because that snob value was alive and well 20 years ago. Once the dart extended, those who fancied southside coastal living but priced out of Dalkey etc flocked to Greystones and skipped Bray.

However I think over the next 20 years Bray will be playing catch up. It has everything going for it.

Better transport links than Greystones.

Better amenity/infrastructure potential. The main street and side streets are a bit dreary now, with things like vaping and fix your mobile phone shops, but it would not take much to transform it. Greystones is just one main st full of coffee shops.

The seafront is far nicer and more functional than Greystones - it is a feature in Bray whereas Greystones feels like it has its back to the sea.

The area around that Ellerslie villas house is really nice, leafy and mature, short walk to the seafront, bars, restaurants and the dart.

Sure there are some less attractive parts with some dodgier people but they are no closer than the same issue in the premium southside locations - eg Killiney/Ballybrack.

It would not take many well heeled Dubliners to move in, bringing more disposable income that will see the vaping shops etc give way to something more upmarket, and transform Bray into something really quite special.

If you look at the development of south Dublin/North Wicklow over the past 50 years the glaring anomaly is Bray. I cannot see it lasting too much longer!

Agree with all of this. I’ve spent a lot of time in bray over last 20 years as have friends from there. It has improved significantly. In the past there were a lot of issues with fassaroe etc but not anymore.
No Starbucks though

hometruths

Hubertj wrote: »

Agree with all of this. I’ve spent a lot of time in bray over last 20 years as have friends from there. It has improved significantly. In the past there were a lot of issues with fassaroe etc but not anymore.
No Starbucks though

Your friends obviously live in the smart bit. In the shopping centre however...

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

Your friends obviously live in the smart bit. In the shopping centre however...

Speechless

Fuzzy_Dunlop

Sweet.Science wrote: »

It appears lockdown is continuing until May meaning house sales will be on hold until then . No viewings no surveys not sure how sales will be able to go through

Where did you see this?

Flibble

Fuzzy_Dunlop wrote: »

Where did you see this?

Tis in the news
https://www.thejournal.ie/covid-restrictions-may-5359185-Feb2021/

Not mentioning house viewings specifically, but are most likely still part of it.

Gael23

Do we know what this means for viewings?

MacronvFrugals

Mick Clifford on the LDA in this mornings Examiner


Mick Clifford: 'Affordable' must have meaning in new Land Development Bill

However, eyes often glaze over when quangos or acronyms and/or the word “development” is thrown out there. And perhaps some people would like eyes to glaze over so they can speed past any legitimate questions and worries.

So it went, to a large extent, during the conception of Nama. Today, Nama is the focus of a major investigation into its disposal of assets in the North. Questions are still being asked over its interpretation of doing the State some service.

parts of the LDA would not be covered by the Freedom of Information Act

The agency plans to set up subsidiaries for joint ventures, and these entities will be exempt from any public scrutiny, including the FOI Act.

Can you smell the lawyers warming up for a raft of expensive inquiries in the future when something goes pear-shaped?

https://www.irishexaminer.com/opinion/commentanalysis/arid-40229570.html

Sweet.Science

Gael23 wrote: »

Do we know what this means for viewings?

I really dont know how they can extend the ban on viewings but looks like it will be . You are literally stopping people buying homes for a year

Cyrus

schmittel wrote: »

Zenify is spot on, there is a snob thing going on that Bray is full of scumbags, but I think that is less true now than it used to be, but as you say it persists.

Greystones boomed because that snob value was alive and well 20 years ago. Once the dart extended, those who fancied southside coastal living but priced out of Dalkey etc flocked to Greystones and skipped Bray.

However I think over the next 20 years Bray will be playing catch up. It has everything going for it.

Better transport links than Greystones.

Better amenity/infrastructure potential. The main street and side streets are a bit dreary now, with things like vaping and fix your mobile phone shops, but it would not take much to transform it. Greystones is just one main st full of coffee shops.

The seafront is far nicer and more functional than Greystones - it is a feature in Bray whereas Greystones feels like it has its back to the sea.

The area around that Ellerslie villas house is really nice, leafy and mature, short walk to the seafront, bars, restaurants and the dart.

Sure there are some less attractive parts with some dodgier people but they are no closer than the same issue in the premium southside locations - eg Killiney/Ballybrack.

It would not take many well heeled Dubliners to move in, bringing more disposable income that will see the vaping shops etc give way to something more upmarket, and transform Bray into something really quite special.

If you look at the development of south Dublin/North Wicklow over the past 50 years the glaring anomaly is Bray. I cannot see it lasting too much longer!

i cant say id be totally surprised if you were right, and there are some really nice parts, that house i linked on king edward road (and there is a whole road of them) is a stunner and reasonable money compared to similar a few km away.

Smiley11

Sweet.Science wrote: »

I really dont know how they can extend the ban on viewings but looks like it will be . You are literally stopping people buying homes for a year

Its awful. I actually don't know what we're going to do because our kids need stability. 14 months & counting & if we can't view a vacant house for 8 more weeks, we won't be in our home this christmas either. I think the market reaction to this would potentially be hysterical...in the worst sense of the word.

We're one family of thousands of people in a similar position.

Digiteer

Yep, far too many developments atm, 1’000’s of apts coming online in 2020.!!

Digiteer

Don’t think so, there are literally thousands of vacant properties particularly in Dublin.!! This government has manufactured homelessness & overpriced homes to facilitate the market, nothing more. The only thing keeping everything going is Immigration, when that stops so will the economy.!!

Sweet.Science

Smiley11 wrote: »

Its awful. I actually don't know what we're going to do because our kids need stability. 14 months & counting & if we can't view a vacant house for 8 more weeks, we won't be in our home this christmas either. I think the market reaction to this would potentially be hysterical...in the worst sense of the word.

We're one family of thousands of people in a similar position.

We are the same. Sale agreed in December but vendor cant view houses of her own

decreds

1percent wrote: »

I can't see China being a global Hegemon, regional yes but they don't have the force projection abilities to be global. They have a large army but mainly conscripts and a very limited blue water navy. The concept of Mianzi or to save face means its all about the show, well put together young lads with polished guns and big hats. They are completely untested in an actual fight.

I would compare them to Germany (less the war guilt) not the US, they will be the dominant force in their theater, and important on the global stage but but not the dominant force. This will begin when the US begins to retreat in on itself either after an economic, military or political shock and will become a regional power. Taiwan will be left to fend for itself and will unite after a dogged resistance, Korea will enter their economic orbit and possibly reunite under Chinese guidance, indochina will become Chinas Mexico more so than it already is.

The big contender will not be Europe or the US it will be India! I expect the main source of conflict will be between the two of these powers and India has been a sub continent whose people have nearly always been subjects to an outside ruling class.

I think the coming century will be one of regional powers, US, Europe and China each working with and against the other two depending on the prevailing needs and threats of the time. The middle east will be left to smash itself to pieces as their oil is no longer needed and maybe Iran or Turkey could build it up to become a 4th power.

Africa is where it will be at, and I think Europe has the advantage there, they speak our languages and we have enough colonial guilt that it will be an equal economic trade as opposed to the Chinese debt diplomacy as we see now with the belt and roads.

How does this affect irish property? Well the Chinese might build a sizable portfolio but if they start playing silly bugger they would be easy enough to be ignored. As they say out east, the mountain may be big, but it is far away.

Decent post, but i disagree on the suggestion of a Africa/Europe partnership . China is building infrastructure all over Africa right now and are mostly not even charging a cent for it, the exchange is the Chinese will build it and be granted citizenship.


China will have Africa under their thumb within a decade.

Villa05

Indo headline
Housing crisis: Central banks doubts threaten plan for 'cheaper' homes

Everyone bar the dogs on the street are warning against this plan
Note how the advisers are viewed negatively through the headline

Sorry can't be bothered linking the tripe, behind paywall

PropQueries

Good time for AIB to release this information given that Ulster Bank will be all over the news this weekend. 92% of the 4,000 loans in the portfolio sale are private dwelling homes. According to the Irish Times:

"AIB sells portfolio of private home loans to Mars Capital for €400m"

"AIB said the portfolio consists of 4,000 non-performing loans, with an average time since first default of 10 years, while 90 per cent of the portfolio first entered default over seven years ago.

Some 92 per cent of the portfolio is made up of private dwelling homes, while 5 per cent are buy-to-let properties and 3 per cent are mixed use property. The average balance per customer is €300,000, with an average arrears amount of €95,000."

Link to Irish Times article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/financial-services/aib-sells-portfolio-of-private-home-loans-to-mars-capital-for-400m-1.4489433

Zenify

Villa05 wrote: »

Indo headline
Housing crisis: Central banks doubts threaten plan for 'cheaper' homes

Everyone bar the dogs on the street are warning against this plan
Note how the advisers are viewed negatively through the headline

Sorry can't be bothered linking the tripe, behind paywall

In my mind the only reason this bill would be passed by a sensible person is due to corruption.

I'm not usually a government basher but this is just crazy. It's simply a workaround the central bank rules with tax payers money... putting more money into the pockets of landowners and builders. At the expense of house buyers and tax payers.

It's just policy after policy to stimulate demand. I get the logic of higher prices equals more building but we can encourage it in others ways. Make it more expensive to hold onto residential land. It's about carrot and STICK. We need far more stick!

awec

schmittel wrote: »

Zenify is spot on, there is a snob thing going on that Bray is full of scumbags, but I think that is less true now than it used to be, but as you say it persists.

Greystones boomed because that snob value was alive and well 20 years ago. Once the dart extended, those who fancied southside coastal living but priced out of Dalkey etc flocked to Greystones and skipped Bray.

However I think over the next 20 years Bray will be playing catch up. It has everything going for it.

Better transport links than Greystones.

Better amenity/infrastructure potential. The main street and side streets are a bit dreary now, with things like vaping and fix your mobile phone shops, but it would not take much to transform it. Greystones is just one main st full of coffee shops.

The seafront is far nicer and more functional than Greystones - it is a feature in Bray whereas Greystones feels like it has its back to the sea.

The area around that Ellerslie villas house is really nice, leafy and mature, short walk to the seafront, bars, restaurants and the dart.

Sure there are some less attractive parts with some dodgier people but they are no closer than the same issue in the premium southside locations - eg Killiney/Ballybrack.

It would not take many well heeled Dubliners to move in, bringing more disposable income that will see the vaping shops etc give way to something more upmarket, and transform Bray into something really quite special.

If you look at the development of south Dublin/North Wicklow over the past 50 years the glaring anomaly is Bray. I cannot see it lasting too much longer!

Bray will eventually be consumed into south Dublin.

cnocbui

Sweet.Science wrote: »

It appears lockdown is continuing until May meaning house sales will be on hold until then . No viewings no surveys not sure how sales will be able to go through

No house viewings, no school for your kids, but that all important NCT check of your car is still open for business. Absolutely unbelievable.

I can only imagine the company with the contract has threatened legal action and the government has caved.