2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

combat14

town centres are well and truly dead on their feet at the minute we have to reopen everything back up shortly or we are in serious trouble - high house prices are simply an illusion at the minute built on a house of cards

cnocbui

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Interesting article on the Australian market, i think we're giving the "juicing" a go to!

The Australian property market is booming but the gains are based on 'massive' debts

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/feb/16/the-australian-property-market-is-booming-but-the-gains-are-based-on-massive-debts

As opposed to other times when house price gains obviously aren't based on massive debt /s :rolleyes:

And as I pointed out in my earlier reposte that no one liked, if you showed the good Dr Ireland's books, he'd likely faint.

Villa05

Timing belt wrote:

If the venture funds didn’t buy the debt from the banks the government would have had to pump billions more into them so they wouldn’t fail the ECB stress tests so don’t see how it is at the expense of citizens.

Firesale of loans is fine but why are we putting the cherry on top of no tax on profits/rents

That is definitely at citizens expense

Surely that is the gift their referring too

decreds

Gradius wrote: »

That Ulster bank thing, the implication of negative interest rates, an artificially propped up property market (imo) pandemic, employment, schools and so on...

Things are looking VERY ropey.

All individual interests aside, the government here and elsewhere (opposition or otherwise) have made a complete trollocks for the average persons situation. Things are just out of hand now with no semblance of control or intelligent direction, stuff is just "happening".

Just to add, the worst outcome I can see coming down the line is that the economy collapses (as opposed to a controlled, sensible correction), the average person is locked out of housing, and the door is left swinging wide open for foreign money to come in and buy up more of the country...which will sustain ridiculous prices while siphoning off Irish people's money to God knows where. A complete decline in nationhood that's exponential. It's worst case scenario and I wish I had faith that ANY government here would step into prevent it, but if anything they're likely to encourage it.

Very much this. This government is very much anti Irish and would sell us down the swanny for a quick buck.


Not to make this thread full on doom scrolling for some but i agree with this poster for all reasons listed plus many more. We have never been in a more precarious position when it comes to housing, the economy and society at large.



I agree with the term "artificially propped up property market" and i think this is the sole reason we have not witnessed a proper healthy/natural correction (and before someone shouts "but supply is so low", supply was even lower when prices were near rock bottom after the GFC). Due to the market being artificially propped up i do not see a huge drop in prices while all these lockdowns are in play, it will likely happen months or a year after we exit and most likely will coincide with the next GE.


It will be a bumpy ride that's for sure. Anyone thinking of buying an investment property now should think twice.

decreds

cnocbui wrote: »

As opposed to other times when house price gains obviously aren't based on massive debt /s :rolleyes:

And as I pointed out in my earlier reposte that no one liked, if you showed the good Dr Ireland's books, he'd likely faint.

No one claimed Ireland was the poster boy for the property market, in fact quite the opposite.



Australia's property market reminds me of Ireland during the Celtic Tiger days. Most people i know who own property there have multiple mortgages on multiple properties and are heavily leveraged, to say the least.

thefridge2006

decreds wrote: »

Seeing plenty of second-hand apartments hit the market in Dublin this week, most are asking below current market rate. Are we seeing more landlords leave the market?

I'm seeing a lot more stock in general hitting daft

cnocbui

decreds wrote: »

No one claimed Ireland was the poster boy for the property market, in fact quite the opposite.



Australia's property market reminds me of Ireland during the Celtic Tiger days. Most people i know who own property there have multiple mortgages on multiple properties and are heavily leveraged, to say the least.

And if you take note of the last time Australia had a property price correction on the scale of Ireland's in 2008/9, you'll soon see why not too many people in Australia are concerned.

Australia has been in a property price bubble for the last 60 years. Warnings of it imminently popping have been surfacing regularly for at least the last 20 years.

thefridge2006

Gradius wrote: »

That Ulster bank thing, the implication of negative interest rates, an artificially propped up property market (imo) pandemic, employment, schools and so on...

Things are looking VERY ropey.

All individual interests aside, the government here and elsewhere (opposition or otherwise) have made a complete trollocks for the average persons situation. Things are just out of hand now with no semblance of control or intelligent direction, stuff is just "happening".

Just to add, the worst outcome I can see coming down the line is that the economy collapses (as opposed to a controlled, sensible correction), the average person is locked out of housing, and the door is left swinging wide open for foreign money to come in and buy up more of the country...which will sustain ridiculous prices while siphoning off Irish people's money to God knows where. A complete decline in nationhood that's exponential. It's worst case scenario and I wish I had faith that ANY government here would step into prevent it, but if anything they're likely to encourage it.

I agree with this.... all the ducks are lining up in a row... for disaster.
Too many wolves at the door for anything other than a huge crash and the Gov don't even know where to start, so much happening too fast.

decreds

cnocbui wrote: »

And if you take note of the last time Australia had a property price correction on the scale of Ireland's in 2008/9, you'll soon see why not too many people in Australia are concerned.

Australia has been in a property price bubble for the last 60 years. Warnings of it imminently popping have been surfacing regularly for at least the last 20 years.

Just because it didn't happen recently doesn't mean it will not occur.



I hope it doesn't as i know many people there but to think Australia is somehow exempt to market cycles and their subsequent corrections/crashes (especially when highly leveraged) is slightly ignorant.

MacronvFrugals

cnocbui wrote: »

And if you take note of the last time Australia had a property price correction on the scale of Ireland's in 2008/9, you'll soon see why not too many people in Australia are concerned.

Australia has been in a property price bubble for the last 60 years. Warnings of it imminently popping have been surfacing regularly for at least the last 20 years.

China saved them in 2009 in fairness by buying every last piece of material their mines could produce.

Wanderer78

MacronvFrugals wrote:

China saved them in 2009 in fairness by buying every last piece of materials their mines could produce.

Government saved their market by reinflating the market with the first time buyers grant

hometruths

Selling season approaching so hopefully we'll have a bit more to look at.

Will be interested to see what this goes for - 4 Ellerslie Villas, Bray - asking guts of 1.3m

House next door - 3 Ellerslie Villas - sold quickly for a shade over 1m in 2019. It was asking 900k.

Number 3 was a little bigger, in fantastic nick, been revamped, with decent sized kitchen/diner in the back bit.

Number 4 looks expensive by comparison. If it gets that asking price, the market is on fire.

Villa05

MacronvFrugals wrote:

China saved them in 2009 in fairness by buying every last piece of material their mines could produce.

Will China be the winner on the worldwide monopoly board? they really know the time to buy, kind of the opposite of Ireland

MacronvFrugals

Villa05 wrote: »

Will China be the winner on the worldwide monopoly board? they really know the time to buy, kind of the opposite of Ireland

A stat that always blows me away, 2008 0 KMs of high speed rail 2018- 15,000KMs all done with Australian Iron ore.

The last 200 years have been an anomaly they will likely regain their normal spot as the hegemonic power soon enough, as worrying as that sounds.

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

Selling season approaching so hopefully we'll have a bit more to look at.

Will be interested to see what this goes for - 4 Ellerslie Villas, Bray - asking guts of 1.3m

House next door - 3 Ellerslie Villas - sold quickly for a shade over 1m in 2019. It was asking 900k.

Number 3 was a little bigger, in fantastic nick, been revamped, with decent sized kitchen/diner in the back bit.

Number 4 looks expensive by comparison. If it gets that asking price, the market is on fire.

Nice part of the town. I like those houses, high ceilings, big rooms etc. Looks like it needs modernising.... and no driveway....

wassie

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

A stat that always blows me away, 2008 0 KMs of high speed rail 2018- 15,000KMs all done with Australian Iron ore and coal.

The last 200 years have been an anomaly they will likely regain their normal spot as the hegemonic power soon enough, as worrying as that sounds.

FIFY :P

Timing belt

Wanderer78 wrote: »

Government saved their market by reinflating the market with the first time buyers grant

Sounds similar to the stamp duty relief that Irish gov reintroduced in the mid 00’s when the property market started to slow down.

DataDude

thefridge2006 wrote: »

I'm seeing a lot more stock in general hitting daft

Agreed - having not seen a house of interest in what feels like forever. I've added 5 to my list in the last two days.

schmittel wrote: »

Selling season approaching so hopefully we'll have a bit more to look at.

Will be interested to see what this goes for - 4 Ellerslie Villas, Bray - asking guts of 1.3m

This being one of them - but really does look like a headbanger price! Assume it won't go close but I pity anyone who goes near that asking.

hometruths

DataDude wrote: »

This being one of them - but really does look like a headbanger price! Assume it won't go close but I pity anyone who goes near that asking.

Agreed. I think that's Greystones prices, and if I was buying in Bray over Greystones the logic would be seeking better value. Has the makings of a cracking house though.

DataDude

schmittel wrote: »

Agreed. I think that's Greystones prices, and if I was buying in Bray over Greystones the logic would be seeking better value. Has the makings of a cracking house though.

Yep - It could be really nice, but you'd need deep pockets to fix it up. It might be worth €1.3m at the end of the refurb, definitely not the beginning! I'd sooner take this!
https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/5-saint-matthias-wood-church-road-killiney-dublin/4341827

Not even sure it would even be worth that in Greystones.

Hubertj

DataDude wrote: »

Yep - It could be really nice, but you'd need deep pockets to fix it up. It might be worth €1.3m at the end of the refurb, definitely not the beginning! I'd sooner take this!
https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/5-saint-matthias-wood-church-road-killiney-dublin/4341827

Not even sure it would even be worth that in Greystones.

Seems like a low price for a house that size in killing. I don’t really like the look of the exterior. Very plain in my opinion

Timing belt

schmittel wrote: »

Agreed. I think that's Greystones prices, and if I was buying in Bray over Greystones the logic would be seeking better value. Has the makings of a cracking house though.

It looks like you would need a second mortgage just to heat the house....It reminds me of the houses you see in Edinburgh.

DataDude

Hubertj wrote: »

Seems like a low price for a house that size in killing. I don’t really like the look of the exterior. Very plain in my opinion

Yeah it lacks charm for sure, bit of an Eagle Valley vibe to it.

But given the size, location, privacy, decent sized south-west facing garden, reasonable BER, ample parking I think I'd put up with the exterior. Certainly when stacked up against the house in Bray anyway!

hometruths

DataDude wrote: »

Yep - It could be really nice, but you'd need deep pockets to fix it up. It might be worth €1.3m at the end of the refurb, definitely not the beginning! I'd sooner take this!
https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/5-saint-matthias-wood-church-road-killiney-dublin/4341827

Not even sure it would even be worth that in Greystones.

I prefer the Bray one. Actually also prefer the area! The Killiney one is not really close to anything walkable. I wonder is that the same one those mad pensioners got evicted from years ago.

Hubertj wrote: »

Seems like a low price for a house that size in killing. I don’t really like the look of the exterior. Very plain in my opinion

What he said!

Gradius

Villa05 wrote: »

Will China be the winner on the worldwide monopoly board? they really know the time to buy, kind of the opposite of Ireland

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/chinese-invest-in-irish-social-housing-and-nursing-homes-1.4453623%3fmode=amp

Look at this stuff going on. The economies of practically every country in the world is down 30-70%, with one notable exception...China. their economy has grown during this pandemic.

The country responsible for the origination of this pandemic is doing great, and make no mistake, they are already buying up bargains, the same bargains they created. They'll be ready to pounce wholesale when this thing hits the fan, and people need to wake up to what's happening, why it's happening, and how to prevent the damage now, not later.

hometruths

Not the same one as the pensioners:



https://www.thejournal.ie/evicted-couple-set-up-tent-outside-former-home-425174-Apr2012/

DataDude

schmittel wrote: »

Not the same one as the pensioners:



https://www.thejournal.ie/evicted-couple-set-up-tent-outside-former-home-425174-Apr2012/

It was next door I think - 4 vs 5 Matthias Wood!

wassie

Gradius wrote: »

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/chinese-invest-in-irish-social-housing-and-nursing-homes-1.4453623%3fmode=amp

Look at this stuff going on. The economies of practically every country in the world is down 30-70%, with one notable exception...China. their economy has grown during this pandemic.

The country responsible for the origination of this pandemic is doing great, and make no mistake, they are already buying up bargains, the same bargains they created. They'll be ready to pounce wholesale when this thing hits the fan, and people need to wake up to what's happening, why it's happening, and how to prevent the damage now, not later.

Exactly. There'll be slim pickings left for those poor vulture funds from the good ol' USofA....

Cyrus

DataDude wrote: »

Yep - It could be really nice, but you'd need deep pockets to fix it up. It might be worth €1.3m at the end of the refurb, definitely not the beginning! I'd sooner take this!
https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/5-saint-matthias-wood-church-road-killiney-dublin/4341827

Not even sure it would even be worth that in Greystones.

Church road is a bit of a rubbish location if I’m honest plenty of big detached houses but it’s the road to cherrywood now and not walking distance to anything worthwhile .

Cyrus

schmittel wrote: »

Selling season approaching so hopefully we'll have a bit more to look at.

Will be interested to see what this goes for - 4 Ellerslie Villas, Bray - asking guts of 1.3m

House next door - 3 Ellerslie Villas - sold quickly for a shade over 1m in 2019. It was asking 900k.

Number 3 was a little bigger, in fantastic nick, been revamped, with decent sized kitchen/diner in the back bit.

Number 4 looks expensive by comparison. If it gets that asking price, the market is on fire.

Houses over 1m are very sticky in bray there were some crackers on king Edward road that were a third of what they would have been in Killiney / dalkey and they took an age to shift