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Covid 19 Part XXXII-215,743 ROI (4,137 deaths)111,166 NI (2,036 deaths)(22/02)Read OP

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Comments

  • #7712
    quokula
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,820 ✭✭✭quokula


    User1998 wrote: »
    My point was that even if 50% of businesses decided to open their doors tomorrow there would be very little the government could do

    If 50% of the whole population decided to suddenly do literally anything that was illegal and immoral on any given day there’s nothing the government could do. Fortunately in the real world the vast majority of people are decent and law abiding.


  • #7713
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 543 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Turtwig wrote: »
    That's accurate based on the scope of the trials. That doesn't mean you publicly state it. Certainly not in the manner he did it. Put this another way, would a vaccine manufacturer advertise their vaccine prevents severe illness 100%?

    No medicine of any kind works on the population level in that way. I get he was trying to reassure people if they had concerns about the lower efficacy. It's a very risky remark to make. A few high profile documented cases of severe illness in vaccinated people and he's in trouble.

    Hardly. He was just repeating what the trials showed. I think people are smart enough to understand that. He's far from the first to say it anyway so if he gets in trouble he won't be alone.


  • #7714
    spookwoman
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,059 ✭✭✭✭spookwoman


    User1998 wrote: »
    My point was that even if 50% of businesses decided to open their doors tomorrow there would be very little the government could do

    Government might not be able to do much except tighten and impose heavier fines for business, but businesses could be closed down due to breach of restrictions, Health and Safety etc by bringing them to court.
    Do businesses want to have legal costs on top of existing financial issues?


  • #7715
    patnor1011
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,304 ✭✭✭patnor1011


    Arghus wrote: »
    The point he's making is that, yes, overcrowding - particularly in Winter - is a common feature of Irish hospitals, but that it doesn't follow to say there was overcrowding during year x or y so therefore overcrowding is nothing to get worried about in and of itself.

    Previous examples of overcrowding occurred when life carried on as normal. Even with level three restrictions for a period of three weeks over December it was extremely touch and go whether the hospital system would still function. We had to cancel rakes of procedures, appointments etc and we just about made it. If we had stayed at that level of spread in the community for even a week to two weeks longer than we did we would have been overwhelmed. Not just overcrowded like other years.

    The risk of a quickly overwhelmed health system posed by Covid relative to other common respiratory illnesses is many magnitudes greater- and that's even with restrictions - can you imagine what it would be like without?

    There are countries or states which did not impose restrictions or lockdowns and their health system did not collapse.
    A recent analysis of public data showed that the states that imposed a lockdown over the fall and winter because of the Wuhan coronavirus pandemic have 5.6 percent more deaths per million compared to the 11 states that did not impose a lockdown.

    The states that did not impose a lockdown were Texas, Florida, North Dakota, South Dakota, Arkansas, Iowa, South Carolina, Georgia, Wyoming, Nebraska and Utah.

    U.K.-based website Lockdown Sceptics quickly pointed out that the models predicting massive death tolls on states not imposing a lockdown because of the pandemic proved to be wrong.

    The website was apparently referring to a model published last year by Neil Ferguson of Imperial College of London, which predicted 2.2 million American deaths from COVID-19. White House coronavirus advisers, Dr. Anthony Fauci and Dr. Deborah Birx, presented Ferguson’s model to then President Donald Trump.

    This prompted Trump to release a coronavirus guideline, also known as “15 Days to Slow the Spread,” which encouraged school operations to stop and restaurants, bars and other outdoor venues where groups of people congregate to close.

    “If the doomsday models are correct, why don’t the bars for those (11) states clearly stand out from the bars of the lockdown states?” the website asked. “Furthermore, why are the top five states for COVID deaths lockdown states?”

    Lockdown Sceptics was referring to the top five states with the most number of deaths per million – New Jersey, New York Massachusetts, Mississippi and Rhode Island. Those states have imposed winter lockdown.

    “If anything this suggests lockdown made things worse. At any rate, there’s no sign it helped,” the website said.

    The website also challenged lockdown proponents to put their models to test in the real world.

    “Time to put up or shut up. Either their models can reproduce the outcomes of real states which don’t lock down, or they can’t and need to be fundamentally revised. No more hiding behind counterfactuals of ‘it would have happened but for lockdown.’ The facts are here and waiting to be explained.”

    The same trend seemed to be happening outside the United States, as well.

    Lockdown Sceptics noted the London Telegraph‘s Alexander Fiske-Harrison reported that the European countries “with the strictest lockdowns have come out no better.” (Related: Data audit shows devastating effects of UK lockdown.)

    The WND also reported that a Canadian infectious-disease specialist who initially supported the lockdowns in response to the coronavirus has changed his mind, concluding in his peer-reviewed study that the harm is 10 times worse than the benefits.


  • #7716
    prunudo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,216 ✭✭✭prunudo


    Had a dream last night was at a gig singing my heart out to a band, woke up in a happy mood, amazing what can trigger the mind.

    On the flip side glad I didn't read this thread before I went to bed last night! Lockdown fatigue both on here and in the real world seem to be an all time high and I'd say compliance is waining with each day. Personally reckon a lot of people will give it till March 5th and then there could be a big change in how the public behave.


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  • #7717
    JRant
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,244 ✭✭✭✭JRant


    Wolf359f wrote: »
    It was a peak of 6k, not 6k sustained. That's not realistic to assume they can repeat that again.
    In Autumn, I may be wrong, but some hospitals had to cancel elective surgery, so again it's unsustainable.

    Obviously the difference now is the vaccination program and its impact it will have on reducing deaths and admissions and controlling spread. I think we need real data on this and I would hope that's what's being collected in the background now. This should play a key path in easing restrictions.

    It would be nice to get some clarity from the government and no ****ing leaks. I'm sick of the leaks at this stage.
    If they just said, were focusing on schools for March and examining the data from the vaccination effects, which will give us a better idea of how to safely and effectively reopen after we deal with schools, it may give people some hope.

    There's a very real possibility that NPHET will want to see results of the vaccine here over a number of months before making any firm decisions. We may also run into a situation where numbers will be very low during the summer months and they may claim this could be due to seasonality and be extremely cautious in Autumn/Winter. No matter what way we look at this 2021 is going to be an absolute slog.

    "Well, yeah, you know, that's just, like, your opinion, man"



  • #7718
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,132 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Doctor Jimbob wrote: »
    I think the most frustrating thing about all this is that the government seem to be relying on the majority complying with harsh restrictions rather than properly clamping down on people causing problems. We're almost a year into this and we still don't have any real control on travel. We spent the first 6 months or so just relying on people to sign a form saying they'll be good and behave themselves. We brought in fines a few months ago but they were low enough that people were just paying them and going on holiday anyway. Meanwhile, those of us obeying the restrictions couldn't go more than 5km from our homes. I know there are bigger fines coming in but it's a bit fecking late. I can't imagine how it must feel for people who are out of work seeing others be able to do what they like with no consequences.

    We loosened restrictions over Christmas despite it obviously being a bad idea with the rising numbers but that still wasn't enough for some people, plenty paid no heed to the 3 households idea and threw big parties. What happened to them? Feck all.

    It's so, so frustrating that we're seemingly stuck with longer restrictions because the ones we have aren't being enforced. I talk about getting fed up and breaking the restrictions. I'm probably not really going to do it. Not yet anyway. I'd feel too guilty over it. But sometimes it's really hard to see the point in sticking with it when they just seem to keep getting extended indefinitely. I know people will say that breaking the restrictions is just going to make them last longer, but that seems to be happening regardless of what I or anyone else does.
    There is no simple answer to all of this. Travel inwards is not really the problem even if Christmas magnified it. It has always been socialising and community spread. Most of what you're demanding here is beyond any laws we have, never mind far closer to what the Chinese did. It's also a surefire way to lose support of the public.


  • #7719
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,132 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Doctor Jimbob wrote: »
    Travel inwards is obviously a problem. If the virus couldn't get into the country it wouldn't be able to spread. Fines and potential prison for travellers, hospitality being closed for months, amd not being able to travel more than 5km from our homes are also all far beyond what we've ever had but they're all happening right now. I'd argue the 5km is much more in line with what the Chinese did than anything I'm suggesting.

    I'd prefer a short spell of extreme restrictions to month after month of the slightly less extreme restrictions we have now. I'd imagine plenty feel similarly.
    The virus getting into the country may be travel, it will still get in anyway. The virus spreading is behaviours. I don't think anyone likes this but I don't believe in the short sharp shock. At our present levels that is a whole longer than 2-3 weeks and it just gives people false hope. I think we may see the government forced to reduce restrictions as compliance levels start to fall. Other posters have suggested Easter will be where things turn and I think that is quite probable.


  • #7720
    Vicxas
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,628 ✭✭✭✭Vicxas


    I wouldn't mind May if i could go to the other end of the county without the gardai asking me where I'm going.

    There's only so much you can do and see within 5km...


  • #7721
    opinionated3
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,190 ✭✭✭opinionated3


    Doctor Jimbob wrote: »
    Travel inwards is obviously a problem. If the virus couldn't get into the country it wouldn't be able to spread. Fines and potential prison for travellers, hospitality being closed for months, amd not being able to travel more than 5km from our homes are also all far beyond what we've ever had but they're all happening right now. I'd argue the 5km is much more in line with what the Chinese did than anything I'm suggesting.

    I'd prefer a short spell of extreme restrictions to month after month of the slightly less extreme restrictions we have now. I'd imagine plenty feel similarly.
    Travel counts for 0.03% of cases. Hardly the iceberg our Titanic is floundering on.


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  • #7722
    Happydays2020
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,677 ✭✭✭Happydays2020


    is_that_so wrote: »
    The virus getting into the country may be travel, it will still get in anyway. The virus spreading is behaviours. I don't think anyone likes this but I don't believe in the short sharp shock. At our present levels that is a whole longer than 2-3 weeks and it just gives people false hope. I think we may see the government forced to reduce restrictions as compliance levels start to fall. Other posters have suggested Easter will be where things turn and I think that is quite probable.

    Agree with that. Although I am getting the sense that people are now starting to relax a bit themselves and and are just getting on with aspects of life.

    We are told that it the caution is because of the new variant but the new variant was there when things were ‘out of control’ and yet we got numbers down really quickly, and they are still declining albeit at a slower pace. I know I am probably ignoring the science on this one but I remain sceptical.

    Part of this is because there is nothing positive on the horizon in terms of public messaging. Long way to go, restrictions until the end of the year or into 2022, no holidays and even casting doubt on staycations.

    There is no carrot and it is all stick. Meanwhile our neighbouring country is flying ahead with vaccinations and is talking about light on the horizon, end to restrictions, summer holidays.

    While there was frustration last year with the slow pace of the opening up plan, it actually went reasonably well compared to other countries. Where issues arose we know that it was largely indoor house parties where there was a lot of pent up demand for family celebrations.

    If indoor hospitality stays closed for the moment, and if people can be persuaded not to have big gatherings indoors, and with better weather - there should be scope to loosen things up particularly when we get more and more of the vulnerable vaccinated. That is probably the plan but the messaging is terrible.

    Each week that construction stays closed our housing crisis gets worse (as does our broader economy). Schools not open is having multiple effects. Hopefully there will be positive news on this over the next week or so (real news not leaking).


  • #7723
    Jinglejangle69
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,173 ✭✭✭Jinglejangle69


    opinionated3 wrote: »
    Travel counts for 0.03% of cases. Hardly the iceberg our Titanic is floundering on.

    That's not true.

    At one stage there was 40% community transmission that they had no idea where it came from.

    Doesn't take Einstein to figure that one out.

    That was around the time America was rampant and our country was open for tourism.


  • #7724
    opinionated3
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,190 ✭✭✭opinionated3


    Jinglejangle69 wrote: »
    That's BS.

    At one stage there was 40% community transmission that they had no idea where it came from.

    Doesn't take Einstein to figure that one out.

    That was around the time America was rampant and our country was open for tourism.

    4 cases in the last two weeks. But yet level five still isn't working.


  • #7725
    ixoy
    Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 18,045 Mod ✭✭✭✭ixoy


    Happydays2020 wrote: »
    If indoor hospitality stays closed for the moment, and if people can be persuaded not to have big gatherings indoors, and with better weather - there should be scope to loosen things up particularly when we get more and more of the vulnerable vaccinated. That is probably the plan but the messaging is terrible.
    And as a result, more and more people are meeting up and having gatherings because they're repeatedly being told the date's being pushed out further and feel they don't want to wait for months. It's self defeating, sure, but it's somewhat understandable too - but if they had a clearer target, or some release of the pressure be it widening 5km, opening click-and-collect, etc, they might restrain themselves more.


  • #7726
    nsnoefc1878
    Closed Accounts Posts: 596 ✭✭✭nsnoefc1878


    Doctor Jimbob wrote: »
    Travel inwards is obviously a problem. If the virus couldn't get into the country it wouldn't be able to spread. Fines and potential prison for travellers, hospitality being closed for months, amd not being able to travel more than 5km from our homes are also all far beyond what we've ever had but they're all happening right now. I'd argue the 5km is much more in line with what the Chinese did than anything I'm suggesting.

    I'd prefer a short spell of extreme restrictions to month after month of the slightly less extreme restrictions we have now. I'd imagine plenty feel similarly.

    I'd agree tho I think we missed our opportunity to take that approach, should have done it in the first lockdown or at the very least in the second. People just wont buy into it, and could you blame them? We have decided to follow a plan of repeating the same steps over and over even tho we have seen them fail, its barmy.
    Zero covid (its badly named) was the way to go, but had to be done early in the pandemic, its too late now I feel, mainly because the public have had enough.
    Sick of all the loser excuses that its not viable here, dont buy it for a second. Yes there are geopolitical difficulties around it but nothing is insurmountable. Our loser government never had the vision or ability to even try bridge those issues.


  • #7727
    Stihl waters
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 715 ✭✭✭Stihl waters


    Apologies upfront to anyone who is suffering with mental health issues and loneliness in all of this but this is a pandemic, its not a cold virus or a mild winter flu, it's a virus that has the potential to cripple health services, care homes and the economy.
    I've been reading the whinging crying posts on this with a while and the selfishness displayed is nothing short of scandalous, so what if you're feeling fed up, get over it, you're not being asked to dig a trench in Flanders or being conscripted to go fight for your country, there's no rationing or fear of food shortages or toilet paper, you're being asked to stay within 5 kms of your home for another few months until vaccines come online, you should probably use this time to better yourselves as you'll probably never again see a time where you're being asked to stay at home to do nothing while getting paid, and to the people working from home at least you have a job to do, make the most of it for now
    Morons online talking about a 99% survival rate fail to remember it's 99% simply because of lockdown, people pointing out it's mostly the elderly dying are making me think they believe that people over a certain age are disposable as long as they can go out to dinner with friends, young healthy people have little to fear from it but I'd hate for my 65 year old mother recovering from cancer and recently diagnosed with Parkinson's to get it, I can cope for another while without seeing her or sitting down to have dinner with her knowing this will all end once she gets the vaccine.
    So again apologies to anyone offended but you know what, suck it up, get motivated and stop the fcukin crying and whinging and self pity and remember you're being asked to stay at home in a warm house with a full fridge and Netflix, get on with it.


  • #7728
    nsnoefc1878
    Closed Accounts Posts: 596 ✭✭✭nsnoefc1878


    opinionated3 wrote: »
    Travel counts for 0.03% of cases. Hardly the iceberg our Titanic is floundering on.

    Disingenuous to say the least. Its accounts for 100% given that the virus did not originate here.


  • #7729
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,132 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Jinglejangle69 wrote: »
    That's BS.

    At one stage there was 40% community transmission that they had no idea where it came from.

    Doesn't take Einstein to figure that one out.

    That was around the time America was rampant and our country was open for tourism.
    Not being able to practically track back more than 48 hours with the numbers of cases we have had also makes it unknown.


  • #7730
    Leftwaffe
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,558 ✭✭✭Leftwaffe


    I actually cannot believe Martin has announced another 9 weeks of lockdown via the Mirror. Not enough is being made of this. Utterly shameful act. Zero consideration for people’s mental health.

    9 more weeks of this. I cannot live like this for 9 more weeks. How our gov handled this will be seen as a tragedy in the history books.


  • #7731
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,132 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    nsnoefc1878 wrote: »
    Disingenuous to say the least. Its accounts for 100% given that the virus did not originate here.
    Way back in March some scientists hypothesised that closing borders etc will only delay the virus by about 3 weeks.


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  • #7732
    Plumbthedepths
    Closed Accounts Posts: 12,653 ✭✭✭✭Plumbthedepths


    Stihl waters wrote: »
    Apologies upfront to anyone who is suffering with mental health issues and loneliness in all of this but this is a pandemic, its not a cold virus or a mild winter flu, it's a virus that has the potential to cripple health services, care homes and the economy.
    I've been reading the whinging crying posts on this with a while and the selfishness displayed is nothing short of scandalous, so what if you're feeling fed up, get over it, you're not being asked to dig a trench in Flanders or being conscripted to go fight for your country, there's no rationing or fear of food shortages or toilet paper, you're being asked to stay within 5 kms of your home for another few months until vaccines come online, you should probably use this time to better yourselves as you'll probably never again see a time where you're being asked to stay at home to do nothing while getting paid, and to the people working from home at least you have a job to do, make the most of it for now
    Morons online talking about a 99% survival rate fail to remember it's 99% simply because of lockdown, people pointing out it's mostly the elderly dying are making me think they believe that people over a certain age are disposable as long as they can go out to dinner with friends, young healthy people have little to fear from it but I'd hate for my 65 year old mother recovering from cancer and recently diagnosed with Parkinson's to get it, I can cope for another while without seeing her or sitting down to have dinner with her knowing this will all end once she gets the vaccine.
    So again apologies to anyone offended but you know what, suck it up, get motivated and stop the fcukin crying and whinging and self pity and remember you're being asked to stay at home in a warm house with a full fridge and Netflix, get on with it.

    I don't know why you started your post apologizing to anyone with mental health issues, because the rest of your post demonstrates you clearly don't give a shiny f**k to anyone's mental health. Three words clearly show this 'Suck it up'.


  • #7733
    Knex*
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,477 ✭✭✭✭Knex*


    Bigfatmichael wrote: »
    8 out of 10 people had an underlying condition from this article.

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/covid-19-majority-of-fatalities-had-underlying-conditions-1.4471443

    Approx. 40% of the population have a chronic disease of some sort, though. Underlying condition isn't just some tiny minority, unfortunately.


  • #7734
    noplacehere
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 583 ✭✭✭noplacehere


    No. No no no. I’ve supported lockdowns by and large but seriously 9 weeks more at this level? That’s crazy! Where’s the god damn carrot??!


  • #7735
    Multipass
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,678 ✭✭✭Multipass


    Plumbthedepths wrote: »
    I don't know why you started your post apologizing to anyone with mental health issues, because the rest of your post demonstrates you clearly don't give a shiny f**k to anyone's mental health. Three words clearly show this 'Suck it up'.

    I’m all right Jack. Why can’t you peasants all just watch Netflix


  • #7736
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 3,686 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Leftwaffe wrote: »
    I actually cannot believe Martin has announced another 9 weeks of lockdown via the Mirror. Not enough is being made of this. Utterly shameful act. Zero consideration for people’s mental health.

    9 more weeks of this. I cannot live like this for 9 more weeks. How our gov handled this will be seen as a tragedy in the history books.

    no mention, no challenge, no questions AT ALL of this on any news channel this morning! Nothing questioning why MM announced this via the Daily Mirror at 10pm last night :confused:


  • #7737
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,132 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Leftwaffe wrote: »
    I actually cannot believe Martin has announced another 9 weeks of lockdown via the Mirror. Not enough is being made of this. Utterly shameful act. Zero consideration for people’s mental health.

    9 more weeks of this. I cannot live like this for 9 more weeks. How our gov handled this will be seen as a tragedy in the history books.
    This seems to be back to the bunker communications strategy. Throw it out and duck and hide. In fairness they have little else to say but it might be best for all if they stopped offering up empty, false statements about the future.


  • #7738
    BlueSkys102
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15 ✭BlueSkys102


    Leftwaffe wrote: »
    I actually cannot believe Martin has announced another 9 weeks of lockdown via the Mirror. Not enough is being made of this. Utterly shameful act. Zero consideration for people’s mental health.

    9 more weeks of this. I cannot live like this for 9 more weeks. How our gov handled this will be seen as a tragedy in the history books.

    That just pushed me over the edge! To announce it to the Mirror of all newspapers, no press conference or time to actually explain why they feel another 9 weeks is needed is disgraceful!!!

    He is like a troll who didnt want to face the music so left a message instead


  • #7739
    SnuggyBear
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 965 ✭✭✭SnuggyBear


    Stihl waters wrote: »
    Morons online talking about a 99% survival rate fail to remember it's 99% simply because of lockdown

    Good one, and your calling people morons?


  • #7740
    Happydays2020
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,677 ✭✭✭Happydays2020


    JRant wrote: »
    There's a very real possibility that NPHET will want to see results of the vaccine here over a number of months before making any firm decisions. We may also run into a situation where numbers will be very low during the summer months and they may claim this could be due to seasonality and be extremely cautious in Autumn/Winter. No matter what way we look at this 2021 is going to be an absolute slog.

    If that is the view of NPHET then it is bizarre. Are we different here vs people elsewhere. Do they see genetic issues they are not telling us about? I presume not but if they are at this nonsense then they leave the door open to conspiracies and other issues.


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  • #7741
    Father Hernandez
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,415 ✭✭✭✭Father Hernandez


    Leftwaffe wrote: »
    I actually cannot believe Martin has announced another 9 weeks of lockdown via the Mirror. Not enough is being made of this. Utterly shameful act. Zero consideration for people’s mental health.

    9 more weeks of this. I cannot live like this for 9 more weeks. How our gov handled this will be seen as a tragedy in the history books.

    Via an exclusive as if it's a massive scoop.

    If you see on their website, a lot of these pictures are not just stock imagery.

    It was a planned, well thought out interview and photoshoot.

    Completely spinless.

    1_I210218_182553_6285518oTextTRMRMMGLPICT000228885206o.jpg

    1_I210218_182527_6283978oTextTRMRMMGLPICT000228885226o.jpg


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