2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1

PropQueries · 17-02-2021 4:51pm

fliball123 wrote: »

Then why didnt they do that after 2008? 20/30 on PRSI dont think so and 70% at the higher rate the law of diminishing returns is currently kicking in at the rate currently 70% will result in less taxes being collected.

Basically because austerity was the name of the game last time. Plus we went from having one of the lowest government debt levels in the world to one of the highest which cushioned the level of tax rises required to keep the economy going at that time.

Today, the buzzword is “bigger state”. That means significant tax rises ahead IMO

fliball123 · 17-02-2021 5:05pm

PropQueries wrote: »

Basically because austerity was the name of the game last time. Plus we went from having one of the lowest government debt levels in the world to one of the highest which cushioned the level of tax rises required to keep the economy going at that time.

Today, the buzzword is “bigger state”. That means significant tax rises ahead IMO

Look up the phrase of "law of diminishing returns" and you will understand that raising taxes to unaffordable levels will not work. So you think that raising to 70% is not austerity. We have been paying the debt back since 2008 so surely we should of all been paying 120% taxes to pay it off

come on Props we will never see 70% tax rates again this was the reason Ireland had such high emigration out of the country when it was here, It was not worth a persons while working. Also no political party would bring it in as they would be crucified.

MacronvFrugals · 17-02-2021 5:20pm

March 5 construction deadline could be missed by a month

"What you might see is some limited movement on construction in March but a full re-opening of construction is now more likely in April," said one minister.

Asked about the easing of level 5 restrictions, which has resulted in 700 to 800 fewer houses being built each week, Mr O'Brien said: "Obviously we have a target date there of March 5, a review will happen next week.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/politics/arid-40228661.html

PropQueries · 17-02-2021 5:42pm

Villa05 wrote: »

I believe the figure for private rents is over 30%
I'm not sure what category the homeless/homeless hubs and those living in hotel rooms come under.

Would it be fair to say that the state has now almost fully privatised social housing through the back-door?

MacronvFrugals · 17-02-2021 5:50pm

PropQueries wrote: »

Would it be fair to say that the state has now almost fully privatised social housing through the back-door?

Pretty much homeless services to, they dont even bother tendering anymore.

Council Doesn’t Follow Normal Procurement Process to Source Homeless Hostels

The Dublin Region Homeless Executive (DRHE) is looking to roll out more homeless hostels in the city.

“We are interested in talking to landlords and property owners about properties that can be used as family hubs or hostels for single persons,”says a press release issued by the council on 28 January.

But Dublin city councillors and a TD are concerned about the way the DRHE is going about it.

Not just because it is seeking private landlords rather than charities, but also because it’s not following the procurement process that would usually apply when government bodies spend large amounts of money, skirting rules that are in place to make sure it’s all fair and open.

https://dublininquirer.com/2021/02/17/council-doesn-t-follow-normal-procurement-process-to-source-homeless-hostels

PropQueries · 17-02-2021 6:35pm

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Pretty much homeless services to, they dont even bother tendering anymore.

Council Doesn’t Follow Normal Procurement Process to Source Homeless Hostels

https://dublininquirer.com/2021/02/17/council-doesn-t-follow-normal-procurement-process-to-source-homeless-hostels

And look at the costs. DCC is expected to spend over €200 million on homeless services in 2021.

To put the figure in perspective, they could build c. 1,000 3 bed houses for that figure and house all the homeless families in Dublin permanently twice over. And that’s from just one years spend.

Privatisation works for e.g. telecoms, where there’s competition to drive down prices and improve services.

There’s absolutely no possible benefit to the state or the taxpayer from privatising social housing.

Link to Irish Times DCC homeless projected spend in 2021: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/dublin-homelessness-services-to-cost-213m-next-year-1.4416301

Number of homeless families in Dublin: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/social-affairs/number-of-homeless-families-in-dublin-hotels-lowest-in-five-years-1.4310076

Villa05 · 17-02-2021 6:37pm

PropQueries wrote:

Would it be fair to say that the state has now almost fully privatised social housing through the back-door?

There probably doing it through the front door, but that's probably down to what appears to be an effective opposition

The most concerning part is If the housing market was a smartphone market
We would all have to buy/or subsidise the latest pro version of the iPhone when an alternate at 1/10 of the cost is blocked from being sold

decreds · 17-02-2021 8:44pm

combat14 wrote: »

varadker states pay cuts and tax rises on the way albeit delayed for another little while .. reassuring for those buying a house and worth factoring in when getting a mortgage the next while .. last time the pay cuts to public servants and tax rises were brutal & swingeing - who knows what they will be like this time with govt debt absolutely soaring at present

There will be no cuts to public sector pay or increase in income tax for “at least for the first couple of years” after the pandemic, Tánaiste Leo Varadkar has said.

https://m.independent.ie/news/tanaiste-commits-to-no-post-pandemic-tax-hikes-or-cuts-to-public-sector-pay-40100605.html

Anyone in their twenties/thirties with a brain and no kids will be leaving this country in droves after this pandemic ends.

Huge brain drain on the way. Plenty in the tech industry earning good coin but still struggling due to this banana republics housing and tax system and make no mistake they will earn good money in other parts of the world, especially now that remote work is the norm in the industry.

Timing belt · 17-02-2021 9:10pm

decreds wrote: »

Sorry to derail this thread, i need advice and not sure where to start - mods if this requires it's own thread i will do the needful

Due to separation i had to sell my property in July 2020, after all deductions i am left with 180k and around 20k in savings. I'm currently living with a family member paying 400e per month in rent but would really like my own place sooner rather than later as i am 35 and have two young children.

The properties i desire are in the 400-420k range but i am hesitant to jump in now with 200k deposit as from what i have read up on on investing and market cycles (very limited knowledge) it appears we're at the end of a market cycle and don't want to get burned like people during the GFC. The property needs to be close to South Dublin hence the price range.

Should i wait a year or two and see how things materialize or go for it now?

Have you checked how much of a mortgage you will get as any maintenance payments for kids will dramatically reduce the amount a bank will lend and it will be nowhere near 3.5 times salary. Just jump on one of the banks mortgage calculators to see the impact.

decreds · 17-02-2021 9:20pm

Timing belt wrote: »

Have you checked how much of a mortgage you will get as any maintenance payments for kids will dramatically reduce the amount a bank will lend and it will be nowhere near 3.5 times salary. Just jump on one of the banks mortgage calculators to see the impact.

Asked for 240k and have AIP 240k.

Smouse156 · 17-02-2021 10:20pm

Markitron wrote: »

How the **** can they call it newly built when it's 5 years old?

They obviously have no interest in selling it at that asking price. Could be a divorce or something like that where the wife doesn’t want to sell the family home. They should have asked €2,000,000

Smouse156 · 17-02-2021 10:22pm

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

March 5 construction deadline could be missed by a month

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/politics/arid-40228661.html

Should they just dissolve FFG now given they’ll likely be completely wiped out next election for their complete and utter failure yet again on housing?

cnocbui · 17-02-2021 10:37pm

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

March 5 construction deadline could be missed by a month

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/politics/arid-40228661.html

Politician time: 1 month = 8 months

Actually quite a bit quicker than Musk time.

thefridge2006 · 17-02-2021 10:54pm

Smouse156 wrote: »

Should they just dissolve FFG now given they’ll likely be completely wiped out next election for their complete and utter failure yet again on housing?

It's a complete disgrace. I've voted FF all my life and I'm done with them. They are a shower of cowards who live in a fantasy world. They are unable to adapt away from boom time party developer politics and relate with the great unwashed. Good riddance

thefridge2006 · 17-02-2021 11:01pm

Ulster Bank set to exit Irish market after more than 160 years

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/financial-services/ulster-bank-set-to-exit-irish-market-after-more-than-160-years-1.4487912

awec · 17-02-2021 11:01pm

thefridge2006 wrote: »

It's a complete disgrace. I've voted FF all my life and I'm done with them. They are a shower of cowards who live in a fantasy world. They are unable to adapt away from boom time party developer politics and relate with the great unwashed. Good riddance

This post has to be a joke.

You now, all of a sudden have an issue with FF housing strategy / policy after voting for them all your life? Where have you been the past 20 years?

This is like a green voter saying they're done with the GP cause their policies are too green!

PropQueries · 17-02-2021 11:03pm

Ok. A couple of days of good debate coming here I reckon

According to to the Irish Times:

“Ulster Bank set to exit Irish market after more than 160 years”

“The board of NatWest is set to decide on Thursday evening on a proposal to wind down Ulster Bank in the Republic after more than 160 years in the market, setting the stage for a likely break-up of the lender’s €20.5 billion loan book, according to sources.”

Link to Irish Times article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/financial-services/ulster-bank-set-to-exit-irish-market-after-more-than-160-years-1.4487912

Edit: Apologies. Another poster got ahead of me on the story

awec · 17-02-2021 11:04pm

Someone will correct me if I am wrong I am sure, and I may be thinking of another bank or something else entirely, but hasn't this Ulster Bank move been mooted for years now?

hometruths · 17-02-2021 11:10pm

awec wrote: »

Someone will correct me if I am wrong I am sure, and I may be thinking of another bank or something else entirely, but hasn't this Ulster Bank move been mooted for years now?

You're spot on.

PropQueries · 17-02-2021 11:11pm

awec wrote: »

Someone will correct me if I am wrong I am sure, and I may be thinking of another bank or something else entirely, but hasn't this Ulster Bank move been mooted for years now?

It’s most likely real this time. We’ll know Friday, but it looks like the Irish Times believes it’s now going ahead.

Timing belt · 17-02-2021 11:17pm

PropQueries wrote: »

It’s most likely real this time. We’ll know Friday, but it looks like the Irish Times believes it’s now going ahead.

There is no surprise here. NatWest used 15bn to bail them out in ‘08 and have had a near zero return for the past 10 years.

awec · 17-02-2021 11:18pm

schmittel wrote: »

You're spot on.

PropQueries wrote: »

It’s most likely real this time. We’ll know Thursday, but it looks like the Irish Times believes it’s now going ahead.

Yes I suspect that the past year has pushed them into making a decision, but I do think they had been struggling for a long time.

It is bad news for mortgage holders / potential new mortage holders as it's even less competition for the big 2 of BOI and AIB.

Timing belt · 17-02-2021 11:21pm

awec wrote: »

Yes I suspect that the past year has pushed them into making a decision, but I do think they had been struggling for a long time.

It is bad news for mortgage holders / potential new mortage holders as it's even less competition for the big 2 of BOI and AIB.

The biggest change will be Aib and BOI aggressively introducing negative rates to limit the inflow of deposits from Ulster bank

Cyrus · 17-02-2021 11:28pm

PropQueries wrote: »

Ok. A couple of days of good debate coming here I reckon

According to to the Irish Times:

“Ulster Bank set to exit Irish market after more than 160 years”

“The board of NatWest is set to decide on Thursday evening on a proposal to wind down Ulster Bank in the Republic after more than 160 years in the market, setting the stage for a likely break-up of the lender’s €20.5 billion loan book, according to sources.”

Link to Irish Times article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/financial-services/ulster-bank-set-to-exit-irish-market-after-more-than-160-years-1.4487912

Edit: Apologies. Another poster got ahead of me on the story

As awec posted this has been coming for a long time, but your post suggests you see it as significant in the context of Irish housing , why?

cnocbui · 17-02-2021 11:30pm

Timing belt wrote: »

There is no surprise here. NatWest used 15bn to bail them out in ‘08 and have had a near zero return for the past 10 years.

Which the article hints is the fault of the Government.

Timing belt · 17-02-2021 11:34pm

cnocbui wrote: »

Which the article hints is the fault of the Government.

It has nothing to do with the government it’s a commercial decision where NatWest can sell ulster and use cash to develop online offering in the UK. The only way the government could be involved is if they bought ulster bank.

PropQueries · 17-02-2021 11:36pm

If the so-called vulture funds do buy all the ulster bank loans (makes sense IMO), Ireland will most likely then just be a wholly owned subsidiary of these funds. A country in name only IMO

awec · 17-02-2021 11:42pm

PropQueries wrote: »

If the so-called vulture funds do buy all the ulster bank loans (makes sense IMO), Ireland will most likely then just be a wholly owned subsidiary of these funds. A country in name only IMO

I think Ulster Bank are only like 10-15% of the mortgage market. I think they're one of the smallest holdings of all the high-street banks.

PropQueries · 17-02-2021 11:46pm

awec wrote: »

I think Ulster Bank are only like 10-15% of the mortgage market. I think they're one of the smallest holdings of all the high-street banks.

Well, according to that RTÉ documentary back in 2017, they purchased c. €200 billion in Irish bank loans between 2012 and 2016.

Throw in what they’ve additionally bought between 2016 and 2020 and now throw in Ulster Bank and they will now own us IMO

Timing belt · 17-02-2021 11:53pm

PropQueries wrote: »

Well, according to that RTÉ documentary back in 2017, they purchased c. €200 billion in Irish bank loans between 2012 and 2016.

Throw in what they’ve additionally bought between 2016 and 2020 and now throw in Ulster Bank and they will now own us IMO

Don’t forget the billions of securitization. The truth is you don’t have a clue who owns all the Irish debt and in reality it doesn’t make much of a difference.

2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

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2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1