Relaxation of Restrictions, Part VIII Read OP For Mod Warnings

hatrickpatrick · 16-02-2021 02:04AM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The proof of the pudding will be in the eating with vaccines. The acid test is whether we continue seeing new waves of infection or not due to new variants or just lack of efficacy when a sufficient number are vaccinated. Too early to see those results in the population yet.

This is a fair argument - so two follow up questions. Firstly, if data from countries who have achieved critical mass before we have shows that the vaccine works (Israel seems to have some good data on this so far, others will almost certainly get there before we do too so we'll have a couple of samples to choose from), then does that mean we can revert to the prior position of "achieve mass vaccination, remove social distancing guidelines"?

And, more importantly, if not, then what is the way out of this?

ypres5 · 16-02-2021 02:04AM

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

Apologies in that case if I'm contributing to going around in circles - I'm just finding it truly astonishing how difficult it seems to be for some people to understand the gravity of this new paradigm that mass vaccination and immunity isn't enough to allow us to ditch the social distancing aspect of restrictions. All I'm asking is, if mass vaccination isn't the end point for social distancing then why is it not, and what is?

Logically there's only one answer here - the vaccine isn't good enough, in which case why are we bothering rolling it out? Because if the vaccine works, then social distancing shouldn't be necessary once critical mass has been achieved. If social distancing is still necessary even with mass vaccination, then (a) what's the point of mass vaccination and (b) how do we actually get out of this situation, ever?

no need to apologise at all you were only adding to the discussion I'm throwing in the towel anyway because i must have repeated myself to him 5 times now. in regards to what you're saying about a vaccine not being good enough to end restrictions, the old adage comes to mind 'only in ireland'

hatrickpatrick · 16-02-2021 02:06AM

hynesie08 wrote: »

Yeah, you're right, I'll cancel the turkey....

You're ignoring the important part again, which is honestly starting to make me wonder if you're just winding us up (in which case, fair play to you you feckin' gobsh!te, safe to say you got all of us good

) - even if there's a seasonal nature to the virus, why does that matter if we have 80% of the population vaccinated against it? The nature of the virus becomes irrelevant if people can't get sick from it.

Forget about the fact that it's hypothetical. My issue with it that it's logically nonsensical. If we still need to social distance after mass vaccination, then that means that the vaccine is worthless. In that case, why are we engaging in the extremely complicated and expensive process of rolling it out?

ypres5 · 16-02-2021 02:07AM

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

This is a fair argument - so two follow up questions. Firstly, if data from countries who have achieved critical mass before we have shows that the vaccine works (Israel seems to have some good data on this so far, others will almost certainly get there before we do too so we'll have a couple of samples to choose from), then does that mean we can revert to the prior position of "achieve mass vaccination, remove social distancing guidelines"?

And, more importantly, if not, then what is the way out of this?

UK deaths amongst the 85+ demographic have seen a 35% decrease due to their vaccine rollout but according to some people they've nothing to gloat about yet. im sure if the tables were turned and the UK were shown up as fools those people would be saying the same thing

NovemberWren · 16-02-2021 02:12AM

hynesie08 wrote: »

Boris Johnson

But someone from boards heard they definitely have a plan.......

a cunning plan

hynesie08 · 16-02-2021 02:18AM

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

You're ignoring the important part again, which is honestly starting to make me wonder if you're just winding us up (in which case, fair play to you you feckin' gobsh!te, safe to say you got all of us good ) - even if there's a seasonal nature to the virus, why does that matter if we have 80% of the population vaccinated against it? The nature of the virus becomes irrelevant if people can't get sick from it.

It almost certainly doesn't.

forget about the fact that it's hypothetical. My issue with it that it's logically nonsensical. If we still need to social distance after mass vaccination, then that means that the vaccine is worthless. In that case, why are we engaging in the extremely complicated and expensive process of rolling it out?

Doesn't make sense. I agree.

Doesn't change the fact that Leo saying "if these sequence of things happen we may have to review options up to and including this thing" is not cancelling Christmas.

And bojo saying "maybe if hopefully possibly at this date" is not a plan, no matter how blinded you are by the word "irreversible"

ypres5 · 16-02-2021 02:19AM

NovemberWren wrote: »

a cunning plan

a cunning plan they're unveiling next monday which will hopefully spur us and the rest of the EU into action in regards to making our own endgame plan

fin12 · 16-02-2021 02:19AM

Actually someone made a good point here about being single during this pandemic. Are all the people making the decisions in this country all coupled up / married .... seems to me they are or the majority are anyway. So they don’t get the need for others to be given the opportunity to develop new relationships. Just like how affording a home for them isn’t a problem so nothing is ever done about the housing crisis. It doesn’t affect them so they don’t care.

DaSilva · 16-02-2021 02:25AM

I think what we are seeing here is the backlash of politicians being accused of failing to respond to the pandemic early, so now they are over compensating by being pessimistic and extremely cautious.

You can see this in how in early 2020 there was probably too little concern that this known virus would show up in Ireland and cause so much damage. Now people are extremely concerned about hypothetical variants of the virus that might show up and cause damage.

In the end I think it will come down to the pioneering countries to set the standard. Our government are just biding time, trying to appear like they have a plan and really just watching Israel and the UK like hawks to see what happens with mass vaccination. I think you can assume what Israel does is what we will do on a slower timescale. USA would normally be where we take our cues from, but with Trump they lost their credibility, although if you look at the new administration's covid strategy, it isn't really incredibly different...

My own prediction is that new variants will emerge within our (EU) population and be introduced from abroad and they will cause people to get sick, but previous exposure to the virus or vaccine induced protection will be enough to prevent severe illness. This virus will be included in regular flu surveillance and updated vaccines will be available yearly just like the updated flu shots. Oh and flu will make its comeback once global travel starts to pick up again, it's not really gone.

completedit · 16-02-2021 02:26AM

fin12 wrote: »

Actually someone made a good point here about being single during this pandemic. Are all the people making the decisions in this country all coupled up / married .... seems to me they are or the majority are anyway. So they don’t get the need for others to be given the opportunity to develop new relationships. Just like how affording a home for them isn’t a problem so nothing is ever done about the housing crisis. It doesn’t affect them so they don’t care.

It is what it is at this point.

Basic liberties are taken as privileges now so I'm not sure you'll get much sympathy for trying to find a relationship. Pretty much just collateral damage. Not saying it's right; tbh I think Covid completely reduces human life to mere statistics and fails to take into account that in some ways, people are losing their lives or normal life trajectory because of the pandemic, with potential huge long term ramifications. I'm not actually scaremongering. I'm boring myself at this point but I genuinely believe that what has gone on will have huge implications for societal order. There's just too many adjuncts simmering that Covid will exasperate imo.

doublejobbing 2 · 16-02-2021 02:28AM

suicide_circus wrote: »

Imagine if the swine flu didnt happen in 2009 and instead happened in 2023....would it lead to lockdown?

Our society would not have locked down if this happened in a time of slower internet that didn't allow work from home to be widely available.

You surely don't think Leo Varadkar would condemn his beloved banks and car insurance companies to a year of restricted trading/ profitability do you.

hatrickpatrick · 16-02-2021 02:31AM

hynesie08 wrote: »

It almost certainly doesn't.

Why not?

Doesn't make sense. I agree.

So what are we arguing about then?

Doesn't change the fact that Leo saying "if these sequence of things happen we may have to review options up to and including this thing" is not cancelling Christmas.

Ok, let me revise then. Probably cancelling Christmas, according to himself.

And bojo saying "maybe if hopefully possibly at this date" is not a plan, no matter how blinded you are by the word "irreversible"

I haven't cited anything about the UK as I personally just haven't been following events over there. Other posters have, but I haven't been paying attention.

We still haven't addressed my main question here. If we get 80% of the population vaccinated by September, why would we be worried about a fourth wave in December?

And if the vaccine doesn't prevent a fourth wave, then what's the use of it?

completedit · 16-02-2021 03:26AM

I have this awful existential feeling of dread of time just slipping away. Life is precious. I think it's so desperately unfair that the effects of this K economy will show itself when we recover. I find that extremely unsettling tbh. I'm 31 and have fallen behind. I couldn't afford a year like this. A whole year has derailed my trajectory and my potential to redeem myself. How many countless more are now like me who suddenly find themselves in their 30s and further behind. Tragic. Absolutely tragic.

PTH2009 · 16-02-2021 03:30AM

completedit wrote: »

I have this awful feeling of time just slipping away. Life is precious. I think it's so desperately unfair that the effects of this K economy will show itself when we recover. I find that extremely unsettling tbh. I'm 31 and have fallen behind. I couldn't afford a year like this. A whole year has derailed my trajectory and my potential to redeem myself. How many countless more are now like me who suddenly find themselves in their 30s and further behind. Tragic. Absolutely tragic.

Yeah same age as you and all we will be told is 'tough **** and to suck it up'.

I don't want to feel sorry for myself and I do understand what you're saying. Seems to be no actual road atm to redeem yourself

completedit · 16-02-2021 03:34AM

Awful mate. We will come out of Covid and all the lockdown advocates will be sitting on their stash of cash and deposits for gaffs and life will be good. But nobody will give two ****s about the people left behind economically and socially. That late 20 to 30 demographic that has yet to really etch out a career or build a relationship. Even before Covid it was a struggle to stake a claim in society, now its gonna get worse. I honestly feel like Lenin before the Bolshevik revolution.

JRant · 16-02-2021 08:27AM

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

Why not?

So what are we arguing about then?

Ok, let me revise then. Probably cancelling Christmas, according to himself.

I haven't cited anything about the UK as I personally just haven't been following events over there. Other posters have, but I haven't been paying attention.

We still haven't addressed my main question here. If we get 80% of the population vaccinated by September, why would we be worried about a fourth wave in December?

And if the vaccine doesn't prevent a fourth wave, then what's the use of it?

All indicators point to the vaccine working and working extremely well. The Pfizer and Moderna seem to be better at stopping transmission but they are all reducing serious illness and death, which is amazing.

The problem at the moment is twofold. One, Leo can't keep his beak shut and is causing confusion. Two, as long as NPHET are still around there's a better than chance probability that we'll see another lockdown next Christmas. The main reason for this is they are made up of mostly HSE management and they'll want to protect themselves from a trolley crisis, just like we have every year. We'd have to see clearly defined metrics from NPHET on what would be an acceptable level of sick people even at 80% vaccinated. If we go back to a clinical diagnosis and a positive test before someone is considered a "case" then we should be in a very good position. If not, then who knows when this ends.

16-02-2021 08:54AM

fin12 wrote: »

Actually someone made a good point here about being single during this pandemic. Are all the people making the decisions in this country all coupled up / married .... seems to me they are or the majority are anyway. So they don’t get the need for others to be given the opportunity to develop new relationships. Just like how affording a home for them isn’t a problem so nothing is ever done about the housing crisis. It doesn’t affect them so they don’t care.

You're right, they couldn't care less; they're already well set up and looked after. So, in turn, maybe you should stop caring about their "restrictions", and start looking after yourself as well.

16-02-2021 09:50AM

So a few days back, I had sent an email to all TDs. Just wanted to give an update on that. I have received 2 responses so far.

1) David Cullinane from Sinn Fein. He understood my frustration but thinks government didn’t do enough. Was talking about 0 Covid more or less and an all island approach.

2) Matt Shanahan Independent. He fully agreed and wants the nonsense to end.

Fair play to both for responding at least

TheDoctor · 16-02-2021 09:58AM

2 out of 160?

opinionated3 · 16-02-2021 10:01AM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

So a few days back, I had sent an email to all TDs. Just wanted to give an update on that. I have received 2 responses so far.

1) David Cullinane from Sinn Fein. He understood my frustration but thinks government didn’t do enough. Was talking about 0 Covid more or less and an all island approach.

2) Matt Shanahan Independent. He fully agreed and wants the nonsense to end.

Fair play to both for responding at least

I find it hilarious to see people on social media lambasting the government and insisting Mary Lou would do betterðŸ˜. We would be in a worse lockdown if they were in charge!
There's very few politicians out there worthy of a vote in this country.

BTownB · 16-02-2021 10:15AM

Deleted User wrote: »

So a few days back, I had sent an email to all TDs. Just wanted to give an update on that. I have received 2 responses so far.

1) David Cullinane from Sinn Fein. He understood my frustration but thinks government didn’t do enough. Was talking about 0 Covid more or less and an all island approach.

2) Matt Shanahan Independent. He fully agreed and wants the nonsense to end.

Fair play to both for responding at least

Matt Shanahan impressing me recently. Between this and being the only TD in Waterford asking the hard questions on the University for the South East.

David Cullinane is a good politician but he is health spokesperson so primary concern is appearing more competent than Donnelly (not hard). Basically finger pointing when Gov get things wrong (like Christmas) and saying we want harder longer lockdowns.... That's not a viable option.

I usually vote Soc Dems /Labour but they are worse again.... No anti-lockdown political party.

facehugger99 · 16-02-2021 10:30AM

BTownB wrote: »

Matt Shanahan impressing me recently. Between this and being the only TD in Waterford asking the hard questions on the University for the South East.

David Cullinane is a good politician but he is health spokesperson so primary concern is appearing more competent than Donnelly (not hard). Basically finger pointing when Gov get things wrong (like Christmas) and saying we want harder longer lockdowns.... That's not a viable option.

I usually vote Soc Dems /Labour but they are worse again.... No anti-lockdown political party.

The political choice in this country is depressing - it's about trying to choose the least-worst option.

The only thing which motivates me to vote is the thought of some of the lunatic-fringe grabbing the reins of power.

16-02-2021 10:40AM

facehugger99 wrote: »

The political choice in this country is depressing - it's about trying to choose the least-worst option.

The only thing which motivates me to vote is the thought of some of the lunatic-fringe grabbing the reins of power.

Agreed. And seeing the intellectual weakness of today's media, one can't help but notice the real world consequences of what was reported a few years ago: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/irish-placed-low-on-academic-s-iq-table-1.1289495

pjohnson · 16-02-2021 10:40AM

BTownB wrote: »

Matt Shanahan impressing me recently. Between this and being the only TD in Waterford asking the hard questions on the University for the South East.

David Cullinane is a good politician but he is health spokesperson so primary concern is appearing more competent than Donnelly (not hard). Basically finger pointing when Gov get things wrong (like Christmas) and saying we want harder longer lockdowns.... That's not a viable option.

I usually vote Soc Dems /Labour but they are worse again.... No anti-lockdown political party.

Irish National Party?

Hellrazer · 16-02-2021 10:50AM

Deleted User wrote: »

So a few days back, I had sent an email to all TDs. Just wanted to give an update on that. I have received 2 responses so far.

1) David Cullinane from Sinn Fein. He understood my frustration but thinks government didn’t do enough. Was talking about 0 Covid more or less and an all island approach.

2) Matt Shanahan Independent. He fully agreed and wants the nonsense to end.

Fair play to both for responding at least

I go the exactly the same responses from these 2.

Also got a few more back with the "we will respond in time"

Ive gotten about 30 responses so far.

Your drafted email definitely seems to be getting the most responses.

May be time to post it here again and try get a few more to send it off?

TD list attached again.

BTownB · 16-02-2021 10:53AM

pjohnson wrote: »

Irish National Party?

Never heard of them - have they one prominent member?

If they are socially conservative, would make them less palatable.

Klonker · 16-02-2021 10:54AM

Another EU country lifting restrictions at the moment while we'll be in level 5 until May/June if we continue to behave.

https://sofiaglobe.com/2021/02/14/bulgarias-pm-restaurants-will-re-open-on-march-1/

Smaller schools in Bulgaria are going back, larger schools have blended learning. Shopping centres, gyms and cinemas open since 1st Feb and restaurants opening 1st Mar. Bulgaria currently have similar rate of cases as here and higher hospital, ICU and positivity rates

landofthetree · 16-02-2021 11:03AM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The British government are a bunch of compulsive liars and charlatans led by a buffoon.

Hook your hopes to that wagon if it makes you feel better though

At least they can source vaccines.

Over the next decade tens of thousands of Irish people will go to work in the UK just like the last because of the EU failings.

Penfailed · 16-02-2021 11:04AM

ypres5 wrote: »

if you can't see the difference between what the British and irish government's are saying then i don't think there's any point in continuing this discussion. the uk are talking about a PERMANENT end to lockdown whenever that is isn't set in stone yet but this one is meant to be their last. whereas we've been told christmas 21 could be off the cards due to a 4th wave leo pulled out his arse. if you think those messages and approaches are one and the same then i think we should just leave it here especially when your argument is based around you nor liking certain UK cabinet members and piers morgan.

Johnson also said he can't offer a cast iron guarantee that it would be the last lockdown. He's lies constantly and is full of bluff and bluster. I don't believe a word that comes out of his mouth. Did you see what he said to the DUP and then what he actually did?

Kermit.de.frog · 16-02-2021 11:08AM

Klonker wrote: »

Another EU country lifting restrictions at the moment while we'll be in level 5 until May/June if we continue to behave.

https://sofiaglobe.com/2021/02/14/bulgarias-pm-restaurants-will-re-open-on-march-1/

Smaller schools in Bulgaria are going back, larger schools have blended learning. Shopping centres, gyms and cinemas open since 1st Feb and restaurants opening 1st Mar. Bulgaria currently have similar rate of cases as here and higher hospital, ICU and positivity rates

Your last sentence would be precisely why reactionary policy making is dangerous. Countries that don't take seriously their responsibilities will just end up in trouble again. That cycle can't be broken by wishful thinking.

Relaxation of Restrictions, Part VIII *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

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Relaxation of Restrictions, Part VIII Read OP For Mod Warnings