Cheltenham 2021 Antepost

One of the hot favourites at Cheltenham, and the 2020 French 1000 Guineas winner were foaled at the stud where my two mares and filly are boarded.

JJ O'Neill stable tour :
https://www.attheraces.com/stable-tours/jonjo-o'neill
N. Henderson :
https://www.unibet.co.uk/blog/horse-...race-1.1705062

Labaik wrote: »

I dont get this atall if thats the case. Its not as if these horses have any stud value.

Cheltenham isn’t the be all and end all for some owners and plenty owners in the past have avoided running their horses there. With Aintree, Fairyhouse, Punchestown, Galway and Listowel all upcoming the owners might want to give the horses more time or might have a race elsewhere that they have picked out for the horse. In saying that, for me the ultimate goal if I had a horse and he was good enough would be to run at the Festival. For me, it would be the be all and end all.

I just backed Blackbow each-way (Arkle) on 365 @ 50/1. I think a lot of the horses ahead in the market wont turn up. 10/1 to get third is great odds for a promising horse that looks like the penny has finally dropped.

Slattsy wrote: »

Must be a big chance he'll end up in a cap?

I cant envisage him in the Grand Annual anyway - Mullins usually avoids it. And the Marsh would be a step into the unknown. I'd say Arkle or no Cheltenham for him.

Morgans wrote: »

Listowel....bit of a stretch...7 months away.

I have NEVER heard of a horse miss Cheltenham as their target was Listowel, the following September.

You’re missing the point if all you took from what I said was a horse targeting Listowel.

Limestone1 wrote: »

Are 365 NRNB ? can't see it anywhere

They're not, hence the tasty price. I agree the top two look world class but still 4 weeks to go and a lot can happen. He looks to be on the up too.

Motivator wrote: »

You’re missing the point if all you took from what I said was a horse targeting Listowel.

It is ridiculous to suggest that owners of Cheltenham possibles are choosing to wait for Galway. Can't remember ever hearing that excuse in 30 years. Very small subsection of horses running in both. But Listowel.

If you want to say that there are horses that are waiting for aintree, which has a 2m 4f grade 1 hurdle and a 3m grade 1 chase well and good, or maybe a house from Ireland is a nervous traveler and waits to be fresh for fairyhouse and punchestown, fine.

Waiting for Listowel is a hilarious overegging of the point

RivetingRoger wrote: »

Has Le Richbourg any entries?

Champion Chase but its a reach Rog. In fact, Im taking the view that Joseph is a trainer to avoid for this years festival. He just hasn't hit any form this season and hard to see a winner in his ranks, unless he's hiding something for a handicap.
Theres lots of other trainers who are on the up this season (Skelton, Fergal O'Brien, Pipe) who'll probably nab a winner or two at his expense.

Those days and those horses are on our conversation table now. We have met for a specific reason, namely to go inside Nicholls' mind. By shining a light on some of his finest achievements, the hope and intention is we might discover how and why vital decisions were taken. As soon as we start chatting, it becomes immediately obvious his head has little room or scope for anything that is not racing or racehorses.



"If you're dealing with owners, staff, horses, jockeys, races, buying and selling, you don't have much in the way of spare time," he says. "I finish in the yard at 5.30pm and in normal times would meet my mates for half a pint. I then go home, have a shower and some supper, but after that I'm on the sofa with the entry book. I spend all night flicking through it, pencilling things in, scribbling things out. I never stop. I'll probably be doing that until 10pm, when I watch the news and then go to bed.
"I don't sleep great and always wake up between 4am and 4.15am. As soon as I'm awake I'm immediately thinking. At that time of day I have some great thoughts and ideas. Cyrname running in the Charlie Hall was one of them."
There were some who judged it madness. Cyrname went to Wetherby as the highest-rated jumper in training. His position on that pedestal had most definitely not been achieved by racing on left-handed tracks. The tour de force displays had all come at right-handed Ascot. In three outings going the other way around the French recruit had suffered three defeats, jumping markedly right in one of them.
After an early win at Sandown, Nicholls suggested Cyrname was "slightly" better competing on right-handed tracks. Following a 21-length handicap victory at Ascot last year, the now more certain trainer stated he was "undoubtedly better" in that direction. He thought that and we thought that. He changed his mind. The fact Cyrname was sent off 3-1 for the Charlie Hall underlined we had not. Nicholls was right and we were wrong. The second-favourite jumped perfectly straight and cruised through the contest on his way to a first success over three miles.




"You must never be afraid to have fresh ideas or to try new things," says Nicholls.
"I was convinced there was never really a problem with Cyrname. When he jumped out right one day at Newbury it was because a loose horse in front of him was jumping right-handed. Also, when he had run left-handed in the past he was a tank and a tearaway. He was an uncontrollable thug.
"We could never have worked him upsides back then because he would have been in Shepton Mallet before you could pull him up. Now he is totally the opposite. By changing a few things the penny dropped with the horse, so much so that going into Wetherby, Scott Marshall, his rider in the mornings, was even saying he was a bit laid-back in his work."
Nicholls had become convinced Cyrname was nothing like the horse of old – although as he watched his number-one performer cantering to the start, doubts briefly returned.




"Everyone said he couldn't win going left-handed, plus he wasn't going to stay – and then he drifted in the betting as well," recalls Nicholls. "As he went down to the start, I was thinking,'What am I doing?' I had to tell myself I was doing what I thought was right.
"If he wins this season's King George it's down to the fact he ran that weekend at Wetherby. Last year I was forced to go quiet on him after Ascot because he had such a hard race. From then on it was all too close to the King George to get him really right. At home now he is as fresh as paint. He'll go to Kempton in a completely different place compared to last year."
It is a place where Kauto Star ruled. On five occasions the Christmas championship was conquered by the much-loved and sadly late mighty chaser. His name would now appear on the roll of honour only four times had Nicholls heeded calls for the dual Gold Cup winner to be retired following a dismal display at the 2011 Punchestown festival. In what was his third straight defeat, he was pulled up by Ruby Walsh. The glory days seemed over. Not, though, to Nicholls or his head lad Clifford Baker.




"I've learned over the years to count to ten and not to make rash decisions," he explains. "The easiest thing would have been to announce his retirement, but I wanted to let the horse have a summer's break before we thought it through. I don't know why, but I remember feeling he wasn't finished – and that we had unfinished business.
"For whatever reason he was never quite right that season, yet when he came back to the yard in the summer he was big, well and strong. I said to Clifford I thought we still had another chance with the horse, but I knew we had to change things. He had become a little lazy, so we altered his training routine and started to be tougher on him. I wanted him to be mega-fit at Haydock. I wanted him to make all."
That Haydock race was the Betfair Chase. Kauto Star was sent off at what now seems like a dismissive 6-1. Just as his trainer had intended, he did indeed make all, unleashing a spectacular revival performance to win by eight lengths. One month later he made King George history, moving past Desert Orchid in the record books with a fifth triumph, but it was at Haydock that Nicholls was truly euphoric.
"My head was on the chopping block that day," he admits. "If he had underperformed again I would have received so much stick. I was well aware of that but you have to put those thoughts out of your head. You need to concentrate on your own thoughts and what you're thinking, not what other people believe. Kauto was public property, but throughout his career I was the one who had to make the decisions – and I knew how important it was that we made the right decisions.
"There was a lot of pressure then but there's always a lot of pressure. I do feel it but I try not to show it. I just have to absorb it."




"I've learned over the years to count to ten and not to make rash decisions," he explains. "The easiest thing would have been to announce his retirement, but I wanted to let the horse have a summer's break before we thought it through. I don't know why, but I remember feeling he wasn't finished – and that we had unfinished business.
"For whatever reason he was never quite right that season, yet when he came back to the yard in the summer he was big, well and strong. I said to Clifford I thought we still had another chance with the horse, but I knew we had to change things. He had become a little lazy, so we altered his training routine and started to be tougher on him. I wanted him to be mega-fit at Haydock. I wanted him to make all."
That Haydock race was the Betfair Chase. Kauto Star was sent off at what now seems like a dismissive 6-1. Just as his trainer had intended, he did indeed make all, unleashing a spectacular revival performance to win by eight lengths. One month later he made King George history, moving past Desert Orchid in the record books with a fifth triumph, but it was at Haydock that Nicholls was truly euphoric.
"My head was on the chopping block that day," he admits. "If he had underperformed again I would have received so much stick. I was well aware of that but you have to put those thoughts out of your head. You need to concentrate on your own thoughts and what you're thinking, not what other people believe. Kauto was public property, but throughout his career I was the one who had to make the decisions – and I knew how important it was that we made the right decisions.
"There was a lot of pressure then but there's always a lot of pressure. I do feel it but I try not to show it. I just have to absorb it."




Nicholls adds: "I was almost embarrassed to feel as I did, particularly given how much of a good time we had enjoyed. Some people who bottle things up can't deal with it. Fortunately, I'm lucky enough that I was able to manage. In fact, I doubt some people who know me would have even realised how I was feeling.
"I did think about stopping training, but that lasted for about five minutes. We got over it and we're in a good place now. That sort of situation wouldn't happen again but I also think I could deal with it differently now. You live, you learn and you get through it."
With Big Buck's, there was considerable living and learning. Racing in the colours of Andy Stewart and his family, he won what is now the Stayers' Hurdle in four consecutive years, more than any horse in the race's history. The first of those victories came in 2009, but at the start of that season Big Buck's was being trained as a chaser, not a hurdler. Even after he unseated Sam Thomas at the final fence of that season's Hennessy Gold Cup, most people assumed he would stay over fences. So did Stewart. So, indeed, did Nicholls, until a moment of inspiration hit him at a time when he ought to have been asleep.




"My God, we did a lot of thinking about Big Buck's," says Nicholls.
"I know he won at Aintree as a novice chaser, but he was absolutely hopeless over fences. After he lost Sam in the Hennessy, I thought to myself: 'What are we going to do?' If he was going to be a superstar I was certain he needed Ruby riding him. With no disrespect to Sam, Big Buck's had to have Ruby's style and patience, but there was no way we could pursue the Gold Cup route for Big Buck's while Kauto Star was around because Ruby was never going to get off Kauto.
"I felt we had to try something different. What we should do came to me in the middle of the night. I contacted Andy the next morning and said if Big Buck's was going to stay over fences he needed Ruby, and as that wasn't going to happen, why not run him over hurdles? Andy then came out with the famous line, 'Well, I think you're bonkers, but you're the boss.'"




Then, as so often before and since, the boss came up trumps.
"Bringing Big Buck's back to hurdles was the best decision I ever made," says Nicholls. "It's one that highlights you always have to be prepared to try new things. It's also the best example I've got to show if you want to be good you must never stop thinking, to the point it becomes an obsession.
"It probably doesn't help with any sort of relationship – and I know my track record isn't great on that front. You have to be so totally committed to the job. For me, aside from my three daughters, training winners comes first. In a lot of respects that's a sad thing to say, and it has cost me dear in so many ways, but it's the way my life has gone. I don't regret it. I still love it now as much as ever."

maximo31 wrote: »

Elimay done it nicely there.

I’d be happy with Shattered Love there over that trip to turn it around in Cheltenham. 12/1 nrnb looks value

Labaik wrote: »

Agree.

Tripless. Getting 5lbs today and winner better over further also. Winner is a good favourite.

Labaik wrote: »

Shattered Love wasnt pushed about today itll be all about March for her. Not convinced about Elimays form, she was beaten a long way out in her last run at Cheltenham albeit over hurdles.

Why would you think that today was the main target for Elimay?

Not convinced about Elimay's form - when she today gave 5lbs and an easy 6l beating to the one you like? The fact that they are going for the race with her and not Coolreevy or Benie des Dieux tells me that Willie likes her chances.

Shattered Love runs the same race regardless of distance - getting outpaced and plugging on, be it over 2m or 3m. Its a far cry from when Eliot thought she was on the upgrade, the best weighted of his grand national horses in 2019.

Labaik wrote: »

Shattered Love cut into 8s now from 12s on PP. Shes course form which is a huge plus, Elimay probably will beat her at Cheltenham but ill take my chance on SL at 3 times the price. Its all about value for me.

And 14s with Bet365