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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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    #2882
    Mount Vesuvius
    Registered Users Posts: 269 ✭✭Mount Vesuvius


    https://twitter.com/Met_Set_UK/status/1357413070830776323?s=19


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    #2883
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,752 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    There is a good deal of support that this cold spell won't be the only one. Quite a few models are looking at end of February for another cold spell via a Scandi high.


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    #2884
    sicknotexi
    Registered Users Posts: 1,064 ✭✭✭sicknotexi


    Gonzo wrote: »
    There is a good deal of support that this cold spell won't be the only one. Quite a few models are looking at end of February for another cold spell via a Scandi high.

    Met Eireann's long term forecast also mentions further blocking and northeast winds from end of Feb into March.



    Week 4 (Friday 26 February to Thursday 04 March)



    The high pressure is indicated to decline northwards, leading to a northeasterly airflow developing over Ireland. This would likely lead to colder than average temperatures but still predominately drier than average for much of the country with perhaps showers feeding into the northeast and east. Possible hazards are wintry flurries in the northeast and east, frosty nights for much of the country.


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    #2885
    Arduach
    Closed Accounts Posts: 618 ✭✭✭Arduach


    compsys wrote: »
    Warm weather before mid March is a complete waste imo, in fact it's a waste in the East up until late April usually.

    I strongly believe Ireland has a limited 'quota' of good weather.

    Good, mild weather now will probably just lead to another crap summer later on.

    Couldn't agree more. There usually is a quota bar the very odd exceptional year like 1995.

    We used up most of our quota in April and May last year. Ok with lockdown it was a help to people's mental health etc. However you want some of your warm weather for June-August.

    Warm weather as in 16C in February is a complete waste. It's only bright until 6pm, mid to late Feb. 1998 is an example of warm weather in mid February. By mid April it was -5C, and the summer was abysmal.


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    #2886
    Arduach
    Closed Accounts Posts: 618 ✭✭✭Arduach


    All to play for with the cold holding out, especially in Ulster and Leinster. The breakdown, if any, is forecast for Wednesday night, 6 days away.


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    #2887
    JanuarySnowstor
    Registered Users Posts: 2,910 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    No heights to our North by Wednesday means a rather fast breakdown looks more and more likely.
    This morning it's firming up on a 3 day cold spell at most which is a bit underwhelming.
    We could do with a nice ecm to lift the mood!!


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    #2888
    Humberto Salazar
    Closed Accounts Posts: 624 ✭✭✭Humberto Salazar


    Mid Atlantic low ends the brief cold snap by Thursday. Then it's back to active low pressure, wind and rain before any final chance of a prolonged spell of weather, if any. Time is running out on this winter.


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    #2889
    Zogabomb
    Registered Users Posts: 66 ✭✭Zogabomb


    Humberto Salazar wrote: »
    Mid Atlantic low ends the brief cold snap by Thursday. Then it's back to active low pressure, wind and rain before any final chance of a prolonged spell of weather, if any. Time is running out on this winter.

    There are a minimum of 2-3 days potential snow, frost and ice for the East in the next 7 days and you are talking about time running out on this winter before it has even happened, what were you expecting?

    The breakdown is 7 days away and if the past few weeks have thought us anything, it's that things can change in the 5 day range. Personally I'm happy if we get a couple of days of snow on the ground. Here in Ireland, anything else is a rarity and a bonus!


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    #2890
    Cork2021
    Registered Users Posts: 2,268 ✭✭✭Cork2021


    Does anyone ever think of why The head of forecasting at Met Eireann said they are on high alert? They obviously see something in the charts that we don’t, they also have a lot more data..
    I can’t see any point in writing this off just yet!


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    #2891
    Zogabomb
    Registered Users Posts: 66 ✭✭Zogabomb


    ECM 120 looks better to me, cold air entrenched still on Wednesday, Low in the Atlantic looks more favourable compared to the last run.

    144 - Cold putting up a better fight here I think


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    #2892
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,564 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Morning

    Good news - enhanced shower activity means more snowfall for the east and possibly Midlands early next week on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday

    Breakdown still progged for Thursday or Friday.

    So a mix of good and moderately bad across the models this morning:)


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    #2893
    Zogabomb
    Registered Users Posts: 66 ✭✭Zogabomb


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    Morning

    Good news - enhanced shower activity means more snowfall for the east early next week on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday

    Breakdown still progged for Thursday or Friday.

    So a mix of good and moderately bad across the models this morning:)

    I'll sacrifice more snow showers earlier in the week for a Thursday / Friday Breakdown!


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    #2894
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,564 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    A good bit of snow associated with that on the models for Thursday/Friday.

    That's 144 to 168 hrs though.

    I'm happy to see the increased snow potential in the east prior


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    #2895
    bazlers
    Registered Users Posts: 694 ✭✭✭bazlers


    Im also looking at that beautiful scandi high for post break down ; )


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    #2896
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Humberto Salazar wrote: »
    Mid Atlantic low ends the brief cold snap by Thursday. Then it's back to active low pressure, wind and rain before any final chance of a prolonged spell of weather, if any. Time is running out on this winter.

    Let us enjoy the upcoming cold spell first. Sometimes, I think model watching takes all the joy out of the weather. People already looking past the end of the upcoming cold spell when we are a couple of days out from it even starting.


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    #2897
    Slashermcguirk
    Registered Users Posts: 1,980 ✭✭✭Slashermcguirk


    Exactly, let’s just see what plays out. So many moaners just always looking for the negative in every scenario. Anything could happen, sure two weeks ago I was expecting nothing in D5 and ended up with about 6cm of snow and it lasted about 3 days. Nobody knows for sure what will play out here. Still a good chance of snow but that won’t suit the moaners narrative. Suck it up and get on with it

    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    Let us enjoy the upcoming cold spell first. Sometimes, I think model watching takes all the joy out of the weather. People already looking past the end of the upcoming cold spell when we are a couple of days out from it even starting.


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    #2898
    Cw85
    Registered Users Posts: 238 ✭✭Cw85


    Just had a look at the weather apps on my phone. Both showing Carlow at a low of -1 during the night and highs of 4 during the day. Was expecting it to be a lot colder being honest. Praying streamers come this far inland between Monday and Wednesday I think that's the best hope for where I am.


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    #2899
    lucernarian
    Registered Users Posts: 9,235 ✭✭✭lucernarian


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    A good bit of snow associated with that on the models for Thursday/Friday.

    That's 144 to 168 hrs though.

    I'm happy to see the increased snow potential in the east prior
    Some charts for this? It is FI after all.


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    #2900
    highdef
    Registered Users Posts: 6,186 ✭✭✭highdef


    Cw85 wrote: »
    weather apps on my phone.

    That's the issue


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    #2901
    Reckless Abandonment
    Registered Users Posts: 1,495 ✭✭✭Reckless Abandonment


    gfsnh-0-222.png
    norwegian characters

    Very different northern hemisphere profile on the 6z . Above my pay grade but is that a possible Reload ?


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    #2902
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,677 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Reckless Abandonment wrote: »
    gfsnh-0-222.png
    norwegian characters

    Very different northern hemisphere profile on the 6z . Above my pay grade but is that a possible Reload ?

    Yes i think so. it looks like one of the the lows prior to that frame has stalled out west, which draws up warm air from Iberia, which in turn encourages heights to rise over Ireland. Also we see a surface scandi high and weak heights towards Iceland and Greenland. All this suggests to me another cold turn is possible, which would reflect the ec46 and ukmo longer term view.


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    #2903
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    nacho libre wrote: »
    Yes i think so. it looks like one of the the lows prior to that frame has stalled out west, which draws up warm air from Iberia, which in turn encourages heights to rise over Ireland. Also we see a surface scandi high and weak heights towards Iceland and Greenland. All this suggests to me another cold turn is possible, which would reflect the ec46 and ukmo longer term view.

    Big win for the warm Atlantic derp into Europe in FI on the 06Z

    image.png.6edc99d67d64effad91ca2b8bbc21ec8.png


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    #2904
    compsys
    Registered Users Posts: 1,044 ✭✭✭compsys


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    Let us enjoy the upcoming cold spell first. Sometimes, I think model watching takes all the joy out of the weather. People already looking past the end of the upcoming cold spell when we are a couple of days out from it even starting.

    I’m a bit guilty of that myself sometimes.

    I sometimes wish a, there were fewer models and b, they didn’t lookout quite so far, at least not past 240h.

    All the chopping and changing and different data has us frazzled at times.

    Late Sun to Wed firming up to be a half decent cold spell at least.


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    #2905
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,677 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    AuntySnow wrote: »
    Big win for the warm Atlantic derp into Europe in FI on the 06Z

    image.png.6edc99d67d64effad91ca2b8bbc21ec8.png

    Derp? It would hopefully only be a big win temporarily.


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    #2906
    compsys
    Registered Users Posts: 1,044 ✭✭✭compsys


    AuntySnow wrote: »
    Big win for the warm Atlantic derp into Europe in FI on the 06Z

    image.png.6edc99d67d64effad91ca2b8bbc21ec8.png

    An utter waste of summer weather in the middle of winter if that were to materialise.


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    #2907
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,677 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    compsys wrote: »
    I’m a bit guilty of that myself sometimes.

    I sometimes wish a, there were fewer models and b, they didn’t lookout quite so far, at least not past 240h.

    All the chopping and changing and different data has us frazzled at time.

    Late Sun to Wed firming up to be a half decent cold spell at least.

    Yes , there is something to be said for the old days of just listening to Aidan and Gerald after the 9pm news. If there was a 36 hour snowstorm on the way before a milder turn, some posters would focus on the the milder turn. We need to realise cold spells of more than 3 or 4 days are rare here. I think 2010 and 2018 have skewered expectation. This was never going to be a 2018 type event nor was it going to last a week. You only needed to look at the jetstream forecast to realise this.


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    #2908
    Cw85
    Registered Users Posts: 238 ✭✭Cw85


    highdef wrote: »
    That's the issue

    Am I not correct in thinking they are correct and it's the windchill that will get down to approx-8 but temperatures will be circa -2?


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    #2909
    PokeHerKing
    Registered Users Posts: 4,300 ✭✭✭PokeHerKing


    nacho libre wrote: »
    Yes , there is something to be said for the old days of just listening to Aidan and Gerald after the 9pm news. If there was a 36 hour snowstorm on the way before a milder turn, some posters would focus on the the milder turn. We need to realise cold spells of more than 3 or 4 days are rare here. I think 2010 and 2018 have skewered expectation. This was never going to be a 2018 type event nor was it going to last a week. You only needed to look at the jetstream forecast to realise this.

    Not me, I love the roller rollercoaster every year. I only get legit excited if I've been counting something down from a fortnight away and it gets to a week away and I only tell the loved ones when we're inside 120hrs.

    I rarely go near netweather anymore, bunch of maniacs. Theses threads get bad when something is on the horizon with non regs but netweather is the true definition of insanity. Posters whove been through the same buzz many times and yet still flipping out if it doesn't go their way.


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    #2910
    mcburns07
    Registered Users Posts: 2,006 ✭✭✭mcburns07


    nacho libre wrote: »
    Yes , there is something to be said for the old days of just listening to Aidan and Gerald after the 9pm news. If there was a 36 hour snowstorm on the way before a milder turn, some posters would focus on the the milder turn. We need to realise cold spells of more than 3 or 4 days are rare here. I think 2010 and 2018 have skewered expectation. This was never going to be a 2018 type event nor was it going to last a week. You only needed to look at the jetstream forecast to realise this.

    2018 only lasted from Weds to Sat down here in Cork, woke up Sunday to a rapid thaw :( it was the the one letdown of the whole event, a couple of days of blue skies and sub zero temps to enjoy the snow would have been amazing.


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    #2911
    Rebelbrowser
    Registered Users Posts: 3,136 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    nacho libre wrote: »
    Yes , there is something to be said for the old days of just listening to Aidan and Gerald after the 9pm news. If there was a 36 hour snowstorm on the way before a milder turn, some posters would focus on the the milder turn. We need to realise cold spells of more than 3 or 4 days are rare here. I think 2010 and 2018 have skewered expectation. This was never going to be a 2018 type event nor was it going to last a week. You only needed to look at the jetstream forecast to realise this.

    I remember as a young fella it was the 12.55 weather on a Sunday on RTE Radio 1 (just after mass but before the news at one!) which gave the weather for the week and which I would religiously (it being a Sunday) listen to in winter. I knew nothing of models. I remember after Jan 87 I became obsessed with the idea weather could travel from Russia over to us and give us snow! I started listening every winter after that in the hope it would happen again and I still remember being in my old bedroom in my house on a Sunday lunchtime in early Feb 1991 (30 years ago - jesus!) hearing, I'm guessing Aidan Nulty, announce that there was weather on its way from Siberia later that week! I'm still excited thinking back on it....

    Somehow refreshing on Meteociel 4 times a day lacks that romance....


This discussion has been closed.
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