FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

TheMilkyPirate

GEM follows the ICON and UKMO

munsterlegend

leahyl wrote: »

No doubt Mallow will still get in on some of the action while Cork City will be drowning in freezing cold rain

Ye could always drive out the road!

Rebelbrowser

munsterlegend wrote: »

Ye could always drive out the road!

Ahem, 5km... you might make Blarney

Kermit.de.frog

GEM is snowmageddon for the end of the week.

Of course the GFS 12z run is also possible.

Lots of back and forth to what happens for the end of next week to come I think.

Gonzo

not liking that GFS at all, brings the milder air forward by almost 2 days compared to the 6z.

J6P

Gfs looks on the milder side compared to its ensembles..

pad199207

Gonzo wrote: »

not liking that GFS at all, brings the milder air forward by almost 2 days compared to the 6z.

Yes seems to be very much on its own next week, that’s not to say it’s wrong. All very easy to discount it by some just because it doesn’t show what they want

munsterlegend

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Ahem, 5km... you might make Blarney

Is snow not essential?!

Dazler97

munsterlegend wrote: »

Is snow not essential?!

For snow we should be allowed 10km, if you do go over 5km just don't get caught

almostthere12

Dazler97 wrote: »

For snow we should be allowed 10km, if you do go over 5km just don't get caught

or stuck!!!

pad199207

Another thing about the GFS this evening is that we can thank our lucky stars we are not in the SE of England. The model showing an encroach of milder uppers from the south ruining their snow chances this weekend by such tight margins. Chaos I’d imagine.

TheMilkyPirate

Parallel looks better than its big brother

nacho libre

pad199207 wrote: »

Yes seems to be very much on its own next week, that’s not to say it’s wrong. All very easy to discount it by some just because it doesn’t show what they want

IF the ECM moves towards it i'd be concerned.. The UKMO has been resolute in bringing in cold and no quick breakdown. Can it suddenly flip at this late stage?

pad199207

nacho libre wrote: »

IF the ECM moves towards it i'd be concerned.. The UKMO has been resolute in bringing in cold and no quick breakdown. Can it suddenly flip at this late stage?

The odd time the ICON run usually gives a hint of what the ECM is going to be like. I’d say more than likely ECM tonight will stick to its guns with UKMO, GEM and ICON.

GFS to stay on its own.

TonyMaloney

This is the kind of East v West battleground scenario I'd like to see.

Fight amongst yourselves, lads

KingdomRushed

GFS ensembles are quicker to move away the cold than the last set. So the op has support.

sicknotexi

The GEM is my favoured evolution. The 00z was the most insane run I've seen snow wise, 12z not as insane but still a very good outcome. It would bring the goods to the whole country. Also worth noting it might fall in line with what Evelyn cusack was talking about with risk of potential heavier snowfall later next week.

TTLF

pad199207 wrote: »

The odd time the ICON run usually gives a hint of what the ECM is going to be like. I’d say more than likely ECM tonight will stick to its guns with UKMO, GEM and ICON.

GFS to stay on its own.

We've seen a few times the GFS come up with bizarre evolutions and want to move mild in very quickly/disrupt the cold such as blowing up that dartboard low a few days ago and now trying to bring the Atlantic back in.

GEM, ICON and UKMO are all very solid on the idea for it to slide south currently.
I looked at the Ensemble for the GFS and while it's in the spread, the very end is "an outlier" as it goes very mild compared to a lot of the other ensembles.

Overall though, some good blast of cold for Ireland and UK especially Eastern Ireland and UK.

I haven't checked, but is UKMO the same or colder in terms of uppers?

Gonzo

pad199207 wrote: »

Another thing about the GFS this evening is that we can thank our lucky stars we are not in the SE of England. The model showing an encroach of milder uppers from the south ruining their snow chances this weekend by such tight margins. Chaos I’d imagine.

They are definitely rattled by yet another GFS model wobble. The GFS almost kills the cold spell for southern and SE England and reduces our easterly alot as well.

sicknotexi

KingdomRushed wrote: »

GFS ensembles are quicker to move away the cold than the last set. So the op has support.

The ens always largely support the op. I've come to the conclusion that gef ens are a bit pointless once you have seen the op.

Rebelbrowser

UKMO uppers are rock solid

Rebelbrowser

Gonzo wrote: »

They are definitely rattled by yet another GFS model wobble. The GFS almost kills the cold spell for southern and SE England and reduces our easterly a lot as well.

The GFS was good in seeing this spell but in the last 48 hours it is all over the place run to run. 6z was excellent but 12z poor for cold prospects. With the other models consistent seems logical to expect the consistent ones to win out. Also the GFS inherent tendency to overdo atlantic lows isn't exactly news...

Snowbiee21

TTLF wrote: »

We've seen a few times the GFS come up with bizarre evolutions and want to move mild in very quickly/disrupt the cold such as blowing up that dartboard low a few days ago and now trying to bring the Atlantic back in.

GEM, ICON and UKMO are all very solid on the idea for it to slide south currently.
I looked at the Ensemble for the GFS and while it's in the spread, the very end is "an outlier" as it goes very mild compared to a lot of the other ensembles.

Overall though, some good blast of cold for Ireland and UK especially Eastern Ireland and UK.

I haven't checked, but is UKMO the same or colder in terms of uppers?

Amen to this

Gonzo

GEM - really good run. very cold for the most part, tries to get milder next Thursday then colder again by Friday and into the weekend. Snow for most of the country especially after mid week.

UKMO - decent uppers and support for snow and cold lasting till end of next week.

Icon - very cold up to next Friday before milder air moves up from the south.

GFS - very short lived easterly and milder air takes over from Tuesday evening.

ECM - excellent run this morning, waiting the 12z and fingers crossed it does not follow the GFS 12z.

Kermit.de.frog

This is the best we can hope for in terms of showery precipitation so far for the first half of next week off the Irish Sea. Hopefully we can see potential increase further in the next day or so.

Gonzo

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

This is the best we can hope for in terms of showery precipitation so far for the first half of next week off the Irish Sea. Hopefully we can see potential increase further in the next day or so.

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that looks like decent streamer potential in terms of snow trains and intensity. If that verifies many eastern and some midland areas could see 5 to 10cm easily and 20cm in places if this runs for 2 to 3 days where shadows can be avoided. Doesn't look great for Wicklow tho. South coasts could get some action too.

Rebelbrowser

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

This is the best we can hope for in terms of showery precipitation so far for the first half of next week off the Irish Sea. Hopefully we can see potential increase further in the next day or so.

Should we worry that they don't seem to be coming ashore?!

pad199207

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

This is the best we can hope for in terms of showery precipitation so far for the first half of next week off the Irish Sea. Hopefully we can see potential increase further in the next day or so.

Those shadows give me the heeby jeebys

munsterlegend

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Should we worry that they don't seem to be coming ashore?!

I never understand why they don’t move inland like the U.K.!

Kermit.de.frog

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Should we worry that they don't seem to be coming ashore?!

They do. The model just does not show it for some reason. It's best for frontal zones.