FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

nacho libre

The GFS and ECM are showing a similar outcome now. I think it's fairly likely the cold spell will be 3- 4 days long. The problem is the lows seem to be able to go that bit further north due to the pv in Canada moving east. I suspect the UKMO will move towards the GFS and ECM on its next run regarding its handling of the low on Wednesday.
Hopefully the CFS is right about a reload. Before that some places will see snow between Sunday and Tuesday.

Dazler97

Captain Snow wrote: »

CFS says more to come.

Oh yes please, think I've just had a stroke with excitement

daydorunrun

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

They do move inland off the east coast, that’s what tends to happen with the Irish Sea streamers. You would have to think if that played out there would be a decent covering in eastern counties, although for once it doesn’t suggest as good for Wicklow

Looks like an Anglesey shadow for me in Wicklow. Never a great fetch on a direct easterly.

Humberto Salazar

Captain Snow wrote: »

CFS says more to come.

I love CFS. It's entertaining to see charts showing a blizzard on Christmas day when you're sipping an icy beer on a warm June evening. I fail to see why this model does 6 month + charts in the future when FI is 120hrs.

Villain

ECM OP gets milder than mean in FI but mean has risen a little

Villain

Villain wrote: »

ECM OP gets milder than mean in FI but mean has risen a little

Have to be cautious though,last Thursdays 12z ECM was wrong for today,
modeling lows that shove away frigid air is difficult ,so if it can get normal weather wrong this week,what hope has it next week,especially when cold air is so hard to move?
Knowing our luck,it'll be right this time

Mount Vesuvius

Perturbation 2 is the stuff of fantasy, the gift that keeps on giving. This was a complete outlier on the GFS 12Z run, but it's still there.

TonyMaloney

Mount Vesuvius wrote: »

Perturbation 2 is the stuff of fantasy, the gift that keeps on giving. This was a complete outlier on the GFS 12Z run, but it's still there.

meh

compsys

nacho libre wrote: »

The GFS and ECM are showing a similar outcome now. I think it's fairly likely the cold spell will be 3- 4 days long. The problem is the lows seem to be able to go that bit further north due to the pv in Canada moving east. I suspect the UKMO will move towards the GFS and ECM on its next run regarding its handling of the low on Wednesday.
Hopefully the CFS is right about a reload. Before that some places will see snow between Sunday and Tuesday.

Yes, there's a lot of cold seeping into the north east of North America next week - from next Wednesday onwards Toronto and NY will see their coldest weather of the season with daytime highs below zero.

And usually when it's abnormally cold over there it's mild over here and vice versa. I'd imagine normal service will be resumed from late Wednesday onwards but fingers crossed for some nice snowfall for the East between Sunday and then.

sicknotexi

squarecircles wrote: »

it will be such a relief when we're put out of our misery,and we can all get back to living our lives i.e under house arrest staring at the wall with daily death toll announcements from our over lords,instead of tearing our hair out waiting for 3 average frosty nights and a bit of localised dandruff.




a bit of snow and a prolonged cold spell would have been a bit of a distraction from living in this toilet bowl of a country.

still we can always watch rolling sky news as theyre ploughed by it over the water.

Cheer up, fella.

pad199207

Let’s see what this GFS 18z has to say for itself. No doubt it will back track now that the ECM is starting to agree with it somewhat,

To keep us cruelly sucked in!

pad199207

Oh she may slide...

Kermit.de.frog

GFS 12z Wed morning



GFS 18z Wed morning



Relatively minor differences synoptically can extend things for us to various degrees.

But like I say we will be back and forth with this in the next 48 hours.

sicknotexi

Looking like a breakdown Thursday morning with a snow to rain event. Hopefully it can improve with future runs. We know how the GFS likes to blow up Atlantic lows.

bazlers

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

GFS 12z Wed morning

GFS 18z Wed morning



Relatively minor differences synoptically can extend things for us to various degrees.

But like I say we will be back and forth with this in the next 48 hours.

Even if there is a break down i believe a quick reload is very plausible.

pad199207

Looks like it has delayed the trouble low a little but it’s making a dogs dinner of it



Like Kermit has mentioned this will likely go back and forth

lucernarian

pad199207 wrote: »

Looks like it has delayed the trouble low a little but it’s making a dogs dinner of it

Yeah charts like that tell me there's some things that are on a knife edge and need to be settled before we can be confident of what Thursday will look like.

Cork2021

lucernarian wrote: »

Yeah charts like that tell me there's some things that are on a knife edge and need to be settled before we can be confident of what Thursday will look like.

It’s a lot of agreements pushing and pulling. Saturday nights charts are the ones to wait for!

Kermit.de.frog

The important take from today is that a breakdown on Thursday looks increasingly likely now.

It's a question of how quick that will be now I reckon and how much snow will be with that. The slower the breakdown the better obs...

Night

Slashermcguirk

I would take snow from Sunday evening to Thursday morning, that would be a good innings. If it lasts longer, it's a bonus

Donegal Ken

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The important take from today is that a breakdown on Thursday looks increasingly likely now.

It's a question of how quick that will be now I reckon and how much snow will be with that. The slower the breakdown the better obs...

Night

That's only the starters next week before the Dinner arrives later February lol

Harry Palmr

Snow then sun holiday.

typhoony

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The important take from today is that a breakdown on Thursday looks increasingly likely now.

It's a question of how quick that will be now I reckon and how much snow will be with that. The slower the breakdown the better obs...

Night

looking forward to the mild southerlies that follow a few days later. if we can't have a long deep cold spell i think i'd prefer spring to start.

anyway lets enjoy Monday and Tuesday as that maybe the last bit of winter we get

typhoony

GFS ends with a Bartlett High

snowstorm445

typhoony wrote: »

GFS ends with a Bartlett High

3 days of snow and cold, clearly a punishment of 2 month-long southwesterlies is in order. :P

esposito

typhoony wrote: »

looking forward to the mild southerlies that follow a few days later. if we can't have a long deep cold spell i think i'd prefer spring to start.

anyway lets enjoy Monday and Tuesday as that maybe the last bit of winter we get

Don’t think it will be the last of the snow and cold. If anything we could have a very cold spring because of SSW etc

sicknotexi

I'm not to get too upset over a possible breakdown. Let's enjoy the 3 or 4 days cold on offer and hope there is some white gold for all. It's going to be cold from Monday to Wednesday that's for sure.

froog

what happens when that big belt of atlantic rain hits the easterly over south ireland next Wednesday/Thursday? who wins?

compsys

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Snow then sun holiday.

Warm weather before mid March is a complete waste imo, in fact it's a waste in the East up until late April usually.

I strongly believe Ireland has a limited 'quota' of good weather.

Good, mild weather now will probably just lead to another crap summer later on.

Davaeo09

froog wrote: »

what happens when that big belt of atlantic rain hits the easterly over south ireland next Wednesday/Thursday? who wins?

there will be snow initially and after that it really depends on the intensity and how quickly the front passes over us