FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Gonzo

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Should we worry that they don't seem to be coming ashore?!

the models are usually fairly poor at handling streamers going inland. The showers will get well inland.

Slashermcguirk

They do move inland off the east coast, that’s what tends to happen with the Irish Sea streamers. You would have to think if that played out there would be a decent covering in eastern counties, although for once it doesn’t suggest as good for Wicklow

munsterlegend wrote: »

I never understand why they don’t move inland like the U.K.!

Donegal Ken

Forecast snow for Midday Tuesday 9th Feb over 3 consecutive runs of the ECMWF model. Latest run on the left - earlier runs from Monday 3rd Feb on the right.

For the latest update on the cold spell next week visit the Met Eireann Meteorologist commentary at https://www.met.ie/forecasts/meteorologists-commentary

Cw85

Gonzo wrote: »

the models are usually fairly poor at handling streamers going inland. The showers will get well inland.

How far inland are you thinking, I.e Carlow?

Billcarson

munsterlegend wrote: »

I never understand why they don’t move inland like the U.K.!

I would presume the fact that the north sea is bigger then the Irish sea would help with bigger convection and bigger showers that can make it further inland in the uk.

Nqp15hhu

munsterlegend wrote: »

I never understand why they don’t move inland like the U.K.!

Southern/Central Great Britain is flatter and the North Sea is wider than the Irish Sea.

Gonzo

Cw85 wrote: »

How far inland are you thinking, I.e Carlow?

hard to say right now since this is still a few days away. Carlow should get some snowers but the Wales shadow could limit the shower potential. This could change before Monday.

Gonzo

the all important ECM 12z is rolling out. Looking very positive in this early stage with the cold getting in quicker.

ECM 00z:



ECM 12z:



hopefully the rest of the run is very positive with an upgrade.

Kermit.de.frog

EC 96 hrs...this will help enhance shower activity for Monday anyway



Difference with GFS...

Gonzo

getting a bit ropey around 144 hours with the ECM, bit more of a SE wind compared to the 00z. SW Ireland and southern England/Wales getting milder compared to this mornings run.

ECM 00z:



ECM 12z:


The mild from the south is further north on the latest run

Kermit.de.frog

ECM keeps the cold air until midweek. Looks like a quick enough breakdown down.

JanuarySnowstor

@ Gonzo bear in mind the 12s are 12hours later on both your images above.
The change is minimal and mostly relates to that 12hours imo

Gonzo

ECM a bit of an upgrade earlier on but a downgrade in terms of duration compared to earlier. Mild moving swiftly up from the south Wednesday evening. It's all over by Thursday.

JanuarySnowstor

Yes indeed Thursday is poor now on both gfs and ecm

Humberto Salazar

ECM good to 144. By 168hrs, its nearly over, mild air pushing up. Of course, will it make it? Odds favour yes. Three days wonder. Enjoy it. But it won't be prolonged.

Snowbiee21

Humberto Salazar wrote: »

ECM good to 144. By 168hrs, its nearly over, mild air pushing up. Of course, will it make it? Odds favour yes. Three days wonder. Enjoy it. But it won't be prolonged.

We are still getting a 3-4 day proper spell of weather. Anything after 4 days is rather annoying tbh. I’ll take it

Humberto Salazar

Snowbiee21 wrote: »

We are still getting a 3-4 day proper spell of weather. Anything after 4 days is rather annoying tbh. I’ll take it

Yes, I'll take it too. If I get anything out of it,snow wise.

Davaeo09

Hows that system looking for Wednesday though? is it slow moving???

Gonzo

yep it is looking like a 2 to 3 day event with a swift return of mild for now. There is still time for this to change. One of the main reasons for the downgrade on GFS and ECM is the tracking of those lows in the Atlantic, they are further north on this afternoons runs so we lose the cold air quicker compared to last night/mornings models. We do not want these lows to track any further north on tomorrow's models.

Slashermcguirk

144 is miles away in fairness, that’s nearly a week away. We won’t know what next Thursday will be like until probably Sunday. Hard to take charts seriously beyond 5 days I think, even met Éireann rarely go beyond 4-5 days.

Humberto Salazar wrote: »

ECM good to 144. By 168hrs, its nearly over, mild air pushing up. Of course, will it make it? Odds favour yes. Three days wonder. Enjoy it. But it won't be prolonged.

Arduach

6 days away. We may have upgrades over night.

Captain Snow

CFS says more to come.

Gonzo

Arduach wrote: »

6 days away. We may have upgrades over night.

entirely possible. Overall this is still knife edge stuff, the smallest differences can upgrade or downgrade this cold spell by quiet a bit. As of now everything from Tuesday is up in the air.

mickger844posts

ECM 12z another very positive run. I wouldn't be too concerned about charts at 168hrs and beyond. Cold to the level we will be getting has a tendency to stick around and not be pushed away so easily. We are in a good place to get a proper cold spell for 3 to 4 days at least. The outcome beyond that still very uncertain.

munsterlegend

Gonzo wrote: »

entirely possible. Overall this is still knife edge stuff, the smallest differences can upgrade or downgrade this cold spell by quiet a bit. As of now everything from Tuesday is up in the air.

What’s causing this to drift north as opposed to other low on Tuesday to slide south? Is it heights changing in Greenland?

Kermit.de.frog

You'd have to be off your head at the moment taking anything at day 4 or 5 onward at face value.

Going to be back and forth next couple of days.

ninebeanrows

I personally like the slight upgrade of the cold airmass on 12z EC, getting rid of that marginality with 850 temps at -9 or -10

mcburns07

Humberto Salazar wrote: »

ECM good to 144. By 168hrs, its nearly over, mild air pushing up. Of course, will it make it? Odds favour yes. Three days wonder. Enjoy it. But it won't be prolonged.

Foolish to make statements like this so far out.

Gonzo

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

You'd have to be off your head at the moment taking anything at day 4 or 5 onward at face value.

Going to be back and forth next couple of days.

todays GFS 12z illustrates that perfectly. Huge scatter from Tuesday 9th.



The ensemble for London is even worse with huge scatter from Saturday. The GFS is really struggling from this weekend in general.

Slashermcguirk

Usual glass half empty nonsense with little to back it up, particularly in a time frame nearly a week away

mcburns07 wrote: »

Foolish to make statements like this so far out.