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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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    #2222
    munsterlegend
    Registered Users Posts: 6,143 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    What’s very positive about this possible easterly is that the U.K. Met office have been consistently indicating it. Doesn’t mean Ireland benefit as much as they do but certainly a positive.


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    #2223
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    It's nice to see such cold over as far as Ireland but I would caution against any comparison to 2018. Any cold seem to be very short-lived.

    For me, if the charts do verify the flow would be too easterly for my liking. Maybe north midlands would have enough sea fetch to generate some showers but the Wales shadow would be in full effect for much of the southern and central block of the country, depending on exact windspeed. The cold would be very short-lived.

    Unlike 2018, we don't see any signs of heights building and settling in the Svalbard area, prolonging the northeasterly flow down into the Baltics and northern central Europe. The high then shifted southwards into the Norwegian Sea, directing that cold air westwards. However, with -15 uppers it was around 3-4 degrees colder than what's being progged for this spell (the GFS won't verify) and there was an endless supply of it. This spell looks like it could get cut off very quickly.

    But still great to see something like this instead of yellows and oranges from the west.

    2018
    http://www1.wetter3.de/Archiv/GFS_Global/2018022618_1_nh.gif

    2018022618_1_nh.gif


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    #2224
    Rebelbrowser
    Registered Users Posts: 3,133 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    Gaoth Laidir wrote: »
    It's nice to see such cold over as far as Ireland but I would caution against any comparison to 2018. Any cold seem to be very short-lived.

    For me, if the charts do verify the flow would be too easterly for my liking. Maybe north midlands would have enough sea fetch to generate some showers but the Wales shadow would be in full effect for much of the southern and central block of the country, depending on exact windspeed. The cold would be very short-lived

    Ironically a due east wind would work out very nicely for southern county Cork and Waterford as we are effectively part of Irelands East coast in that scenario and there is a long fetch from South Wales to Waterford and especially Cork.

    We got a good 35cm out of streamers on the first 3 days of the BFTE but didn't do as well from Emma itself. Places out by the Old Head of Kinsale were buried those first few days.


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    #2225
    Reckless Abandonment
    Registered Users Posts: 1,493 ✭✭✭Reckless Abandonment


    Doesn't look short lived going by the ecm.. but your right about a direct easterly feed not been ideal, exciting times either way.


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    #2226
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,822 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Deep Breaths now lads :pac:

    eIKYWoJ.gif


    Some hard weather in those charts, might get some nice frosty blue skies over here in the SW, chance for the place to dry out a bit, dont think the streamers will reach this far :) but makes for interesting viewing.


    k78EHme.gif


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    #2227
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,639 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Reckless Abandonment wrote: »
    Doesn't look short lived going by the ecm.. but your right about a direct easterly feed not been ideal, exciting times either way.

    Yes, if anything the ECM might prolong it, if we get a robust enough scandi high that then moves to Greenland. Either way if it ends after 4 or 5 days of snowy cold thats not to be sniffed at.


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    #2228
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,464 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    nacho libre wrote: »
    Yes, if anything the ECM might prolong it, if we get a robust enough scandi high that then moves to Greenland. Either way if it ends after 4 or 5 days of snowy cold thats not to be sniffed at.

    Often overlooked that the entire BFTE inc Storm Emma was 5 - 6 days. Intense but it wasn't a particularly long event.


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    #2229
    jArgHA
    Registered Users Posts: 1,278 ✭✭✭jArgHA


    How close does this have to get before the much anticipated Kermit thread is published?


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    #2230
    TheMilkyPirate
    Registered Users Posts: 5,963 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    5 days or so is plenty long enough tbf. For me anyway, it can start to become a hindrance when any longer.


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    #2231
    John.Icy
    Registered Users Posts: 2,011 ✭✭✭John.Icy


    Gaoth Laidir wrote: »
    It's nice to see such cold over as far as Ireland but I would caution against any comparison to 2018. Any cold seem to be very short-lived.

    For me, if the charts do verify the flow would be too easterly for my liking.

    I agree that 2018 is still superior than what's on offer, but I would have said 2018 was as straight an easterly as what's on offer currently. If anything, the GFS looks to have more of a ENE element to things. 2018 below. Christ the blocking! Amazing how short lived things ended up being considering the scale of the blocking. I guess the price you pay for a mega-snow event is that it can reset things quicker than maybe charts would suggest looking at them.

    To bring it back on topic. Good 12z runs. Still a few differences between the models but they are getting closer. Still a few days of worry you'd feel ahead with this low and how it ends up playing out.

    archives-2018-3-1-0-0.png


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    #2232
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,822 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    UKMO out to +144 promising

    gnnm6h8.gif


    qJs7jBt.gif

    fZi5aG4.png


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    #2233
    gerrybhoy
    Registered Users Posts: 510 ✭✭✭gerrybhoy


    4-5 days of this would be dandy,I've been in the office since March with 4 days off in that time,I am going to be off for a week from next Monday so hopefully this comes to fruition :)


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    #2234
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,464 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    jArgHA wrote: »
    How close does this have to get before the much anticipated Kermit thread is published?

    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058155857


    ICON more like GFS - quite clean.

    icon-0-96.png?01-18

    Just as things can downgrade, they can upgrade too and we are not far from a severe winter event here comparable to Feb 2018 (the days pre Emma).

    It depends ultimately how this evolves further in the coming days.


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    #2235
    pad199207
    Registered Users Posts: 7,117 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Please Note: 18z tonight may cause feelings of severe euphoria


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    #2236
    Zogabomb
    Registered Users Posts: 66 ✭✭Zogabomb


    pad199207 wrote: »
    Please Note: 18z tonight may cause feelings of severe euphoria

    or Depression. :D


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    #2237
    pad199207
    Registered Users Posts: 7,117 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Zogabomb wrote: »
    or Depression. :D

    No that will be the 0z :D


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    #2238
    TheMilkyPirate
    Registered Users Posts: 5,963 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    No dramas on the 18z out to +120.

    gfs-0-120.png


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    #2239
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,716 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    It's not quite as cold as the 12z and the mild from the continent is pushing the colder air further north compared to the earlier run. That low over England has a definite warm sector with it.


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    #2240
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,639 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    They will be having panic attacks in the south east of England over that low, it's blizzard like conditions for places further north. The low might not blow up like that at all in reality, but some ensembles do show it.


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    #2241
    TheMilkyPirate
    Registered Users Posts: 5,963 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    Yeah a very brief easterly as well with the low filling and heading north but I'm sure it will change again.


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    #2242
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,639 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    TheMilkyPirate wrote: »
    Yeah a very brief easterly as well with the low filling and heading north but I'm sure it will change again.

    If other models start to show it i would be concerned. This could be the old GFS tendency to blow up lows on a run only to have it much weaker on subsequent runs.


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    #2243
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,464 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    GFS on it's own with that. Let's see where we stand in the morning.


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    #2244
    Snowbiee21
    Registered Users Posts: 788 ✭✭✭Snowbiee21


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    GFS on it's own with that. Let's see where we stand in the morning.

    Not pretty


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    #2245
    Mount Vesuvius
    Registered Users Posts: 269 ✭✭Mount Vesuvius


    GFS Mean looks fine, also I'm expecting the 0z ECM to be somewhat of a downgrade as that 12z was a bit on the cold outliner side, but doesn't matter too much as a strong trend is there

    gensnh-31-1-144_fjd0.png


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    #2246
    Mount Vesuvius
    Registered Users Posts: 269 ✭✭Mount Vesuvius


    Also happy enough with the broader 500mb picture for 6 to 10 days time. While not specific it gives the general theme of where we are headed.


    610day.03.gif


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    #2247
    Mount Vesuvius
    Registered Users Posts: 269 ✭✭Mount Vesuvius


    WRF NMM 18Z

    Bit slower to get the cold in but right direction all the same. On to the next run

    nmm-16-120-0_wdr0.png


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    #2248
    Mount Vesuvius
    Registered Users Posts: 269 ✭✭Mount Vesuvius


    18Z ICON 120 HRS, ALL GOOD

    icon-0-120_qpb1.png

    icon-1-120_ock0.png


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    #2249
    Mount Vesuvius
    Registered Users Posts: 269 ✭✭Mount Vesuvius


    Something different from the 0Z ICON again.

    Slower and not as robust, sliders perhaps, miss out a lot but just another possible outcome.

    icon-0-150_wkh2.png

    GFS not playing ball

    gfs-0-138_mxw7.png


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    #2250
    Mount Vesuvius
    Registered Users Posts: 269 ✭✭Mount Vesuvius


    UKMO heading down the ICON route

    UW144-21_vsm7.GIF


    GEM too

    gem-0-138_zgk3.png


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    #2251
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,639 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    A bad GFS run. If the ECM backs this in the morning, it won't be long till the UKMO caves in. The ultra nourished lady is clearing her throat. A big ECM coming up!


This discussion has been closed.
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