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€25k invested in prize bonds

1136137139141142195

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 734 ✭✭✭Sligo Quay


    Doesn't the confirmation by letter give the winning number too?
    Yes indeed it does.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,156 ✭✭✭John arse


    This thread is full of stuff that would make your head explode.
    yes but in a good way!,any word on the variation in actual prizes with the rate drop?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,694 ✭✭✭Hibernicis


    John arse wrote: »
    any word on the variation in actual prizes with the rate drop?

    statesavings.ie says
    What changes are being made to Prize Bonds?
    There are two changes relating to Prize Bonds that take effect from February 2021. The first Prize Bond draw to reflect these changes will take place on 5th February 2021

    So we will have to wait another week to find out !


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,156 ✭✭✭John arse


    ah i thought the rate changed from today's draw onwards


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 192 ✭✭Mormegil


    Congrats to Agent Smyth :)

    €50 for me today, first win of 2021.

    It was a 2nd win from a €1500 batch bought in 2018, the other was in Jan 2020.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 734 ✭✭✭Sligo Quay


    Regarding the new interest rate, bad news with a bit of good news thrown in.
    The bad news, no more Prize Bond millionaires.
    The good news, instead of twice yearly jackpot draws, now 4 times yearly, March, June, September and December for a chance to win €250,000, well not that any of us in this thread will ever be a Prize Bond millionaire, I suppose I just have to settle for the odd €50euro every few months, I was going to say weeks, but not anymore, there are long drought periods between wins.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,465 ✭✭✭Asus X540L


    I just noticed that .35% of the prize pool is given back in prizes.

    Is this new because I thought it was .5%?


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 542 ✭✭✭Bill Ponderosa


    Asus X540L wrote: »
    I just noticed that .35% of the prize pool is given back in prizes.

    Is this new because I thought it was .5%?

    Yeah it's new.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,093 ✭✭✭tuisginideach


    I'm (nearly :rolleyes:) embarrassed to admit it - 2 X €50 this week. I love that glitch! Good luck to all of you!


  • Registered Users Posts: 68 ✭✭pbtracker


    No glitch for me - the wait goes on....

    Winnings on 5th February 2021: €0
    Last win : €50 6th Nov 2020
    Investment : €77K (from Aug 2020)
    Winnings Total : €200
    Pre 2020 : €50
    2020 : €150
    2021 : €0


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,156 ✭✭✭John arse


    pbtracker wrote: »
    No glitch for me - the wait goes on....

    Winnings on 5th February 2021: €0
    Last win : €50 6th Nov 2020
    Investment : €77K (from Aug 2020)
    Winnings Total : €200
    Pre 2020 : €50
    2020 : €150
    2021 : €0
    yeah me too,nothing since july on 66k:mad::mad::mad:


  • Registered Users Posts: 841 ✭✭✭pbwinner


    Okay I had a good feeling today that I'd win a €50 which usually doesn't happen but imagine my surprise when it wasn't a €50 but a €1000, Happy Days
    :eek::eek::eek::eek::D:D:eek::eek::eek::eek:
    Wow, congratulations! :D
    I've PM'd you my address so you can post the €1000 'OP Thread Fee', thanks!


  • Registered Users Posts: 841 ✭✭✭pbwinner


    Winnings on 5th February 2021: €0
    Last win 18th December 2020: €100
    Total winnings on €25k from Feb 2011 to date: €3150
    2011: €75 x 4 = €300
    2012: €75 x 6 = €450
    2013: €50 x 12 = €600
    2014: €50 x 9 = €450
    2015: €50 x 5 = €250
    2016: €50 x 5 = €250
    2017: €50 x 4 = €200
    2018: €50 x 2 = €100
    2019: €50 x 6 = €300
    2020: €50 x 5 = €250
    2021: €0


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 300 ✭✭carrickbawn


    Well done Tuis, Defying all the odds.
    Nothing for me today. My expectations were never high,but near non existent now with the cuts in prizes.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,562 ✭✭✭✭dxhound2005


    Nothing for me. €50 prizes in the Feb draws 4,388 down from 5,724 in Jan. Referring back to last week, anyone who wins €1,000 may be asked to send in the winning bond by post to claim their prize. This is what I had to do in 2010 and 2015 to get my reinvested bonds. Might be different for bank accounts.

    Five winning bonds in Down, and it looks like three of them belong to the same person.

    5 prizes shown
    Prize Value Winning Prize Bond Location

    €50.00 AON270764 Down
    €50.00 BN071751 Down
    €50.00 QP640999 Down
    €50.00 QP642178 Down
    €50.00 QP643601 Down


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,156 ✭✭✭John arse


    Well done Tuis, Defying all the odds.
    Nothing for me today. My expectations were never high,but near non existent now with the cuts in prizes.
    you might'nt want to say but what's you're investment?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,093 ✭✭✭tuisginideach


    Five winning bonds in Down, and it looks like three of them belong to the same person.

    5 prizes shown
    Prize Value Winning Prize Bond Location

    €50.00 AON270764 Down
    €50.00 BN071751 Down
    €50.00 QP640999 Down
    €50.00 QP642178 Down
    €50.00 QP643601 Down

    Those three are amazing! Within c2500 bonds of each other!


  • Registered Users Posts: 714 ✭✭✭Agent Smyth


    Thanks everyone who wished me well after last weeks win, It's nice to see

    @ PBwinner, you might not believe it but when I saw the congratulations message I did think of you and for one second I thought that it really should be you as the Op to this thread
    I must stress though that it was only for a second or two :D

    @DXhound2005, I don't reinvest so the money hit the bank account on Monday and the letter of confirmation arrived on Thursday

    Anyhow today I had a small win just a €50

    I'll do a "guesstimate of winnings" later on today now that we have the prizes figure


  • Registered Users Posts: 657 ✭✭✭Andrew Flexing


    Great to see some winners in here. I..............however............am not in the winner's enclosure this week.

    #IWantAGlitch

    Jan XXXXX
    Feb X

    my URBAN EXPLORATION YouTube channel: https://www.facebook.com/ASMRurbanexploration/



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,562 ✭✭✭✭dxhound2005


    Those three are amazing! Within c2500 bonds of each other!

    Not unusual. But far more common is where there are gaps of hundreds of thousands between winning numbers. Even those under three months where the full million bonds under a prefix are guaranteed to be in the draw.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,694 ✭✭✭Hibernicis


    Great to see some winners in here. I..............however............am not in the winner's enclosure this week.

    #IWantAGlitch

    Jan XXXXX
    Feb X

    I fell your pain. Ninth consecutive dry week here. My record is thirteen in the Autumn of 2018 and that’s a record which I had absolutely no ambition to beat.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 514 ✭✭✭tobdom


    pbwinner wrote: »
    Winnings on 5th February 2021: €0
    Last win 18th December 2020: €100
    Total winnings on €25k from Feb 2011 to date: €3150
    2011: €75 x 4 = €300
    2012: €75 x 6 = €450
    2013: €50 x 12 = €600
    2014: €50 x 9 = €450
    2015: €50 x 5 = €250
    2016: €50 x 5 = €250
    2017: €50 x 4 = €200
    2018: €50 x 2 = €100
    2019: €50 x 6 = €300
    2020: €50 x 5 = €250
    2021: €0

    You seem to be really bettering the odds with your 2019 & 2020 outcomes, which is nice to see!

    I invested 30K in Jan 2020 and finished the year with 2 x €50 (May & August), actually our holding was upped by another 10k in Dec 2020 (now 40k total)..... Nothing since 28th Aug 2020 though


  • Registered Users Posts: 272 ✭✭PB2018


    Wins on 5th February 2021: €0
    Last win: 18th December 2020: €50
    Weeks since last win: 7
    €134k invested in prize bonds since July 2017
    Win ratio: 24 wins in 188 weeks (13%)
    2017 (Jul-Dec): 5 x €50 = €250
    2018 (Jan-Dec): 4 x €50 = €200
    2019 (Jan-Dec): 5 x €50 = €250
    2020 (Jan-Dec): 10 x €50 = €500
    2021 (Jan-date): 0 x €50 = €0


  • Registered Users Posts: 714 ✭✭✭Agent Smyth


    Okay, It's been nearly two years (03/03/19) since I've last done one of these
    The PB fund as of 31st of January is now at €4,453,942,857
    That's up by nearly 1 billion since March 2019 (€3,465,680,000)
    There are now approximately 714,965,065 bonds in the draw chasing 4409 prizes

    So here's my guesstimation of wins per holdings per year

    €250,000 = 13 wins per year
    €100,000 = 5 WPY
    €50,000 = 2 and with a bit of extra luck 3 WPY
    €25,000 = 1 maybe 2 WPY
    €10,000 = 1 win every 2 years
    €5000 = 1 win every 4 years
    €1000 = 1 win every 19 years
    €100 = 1 win every 194 years
    €25 = 1 win every 781 years
    €6.25 = 1 win every 3108 Years

    As always these calculations were done on the back of a packet of cigarettes so there might be a mistake or two and are only a guess as to what you might win, you could win more but more than likely it will be less


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,093 ✭✭✭tuisginideach


    Your 'back of a cigarette pocket' calculation is very close to the predictions posted by the 'insides of mathematical minds' calculations of dxhound and hibernicis in recent weeks! Well done!


  • Registered Users Posts: 714 ✭✭✭Agent Smyth


    Your 'back of a cigarette pocket' calculation is very close to the predictions posted by the 'insides of mathematical minds' calculations of dxhound and hibernicis in recent weeks! Well done!

    Yeah I'm using a 100's box which gives me more room for calculations compare to the normal king size :D


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,093 ✭✭✭tuisginideach


    :D:D:D


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,562 ✭✭✭✭dxhound2005


    Okay, It's been nearly two years (03/03/19) since I've last done one of these
    The PB fund as of 31st of January is now at €4,453,942,857
    That's up by nearly 2 billion since March 2019 (€3,465,680,000)
    There are now approximately 714,965,065 bonds in the draw chasing 4409 prizes


    As always these calculations were done on the back of a packet of cigarettes so there might be a mistake or two and are only a guess as to what you might win, you could win more but more than likely it will be less

    I would put the fund at around €4.1 billion at the end of 2020. The fund increased by €484 million in the 24 months of 2018/2019. The fund value per the 2019 Annual Report was €3.6549 billion at 31 Dec 2019. It is unlikely to have increased by €800 million in the 13 months since, although there were record sales in 2020. Are you factoring in the bonds encashed, as well as the sales?

    The 2020 Annual Report will be out in April, unless it is delayed. We will see the real numbers then.

    https://www.statesavings.ie/help-support/help-articles/prize-bonds-company-corporate-information


  • Registered Users Posts: 714 ✭✭✭Agent Smyth


    Dam you Dxhound2005, Now I'm going to have to open another box of cigs :pac:
    I'll do a fund value for 2020 and 2019 when I get a chance


    Anybody know what the number of prizes was in January 2020,19 and 18 ???
    I don't seem to have them and a quick search on the pb site only goes back 6 months


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,562 ✭✭✭✭dxhound2005


    Dam you Dxhound2005, Now I'm going to have to open another box of cigs :pac:
    I'll do a fund value for 2020 and 2019 when I get a chance


    Anybody know what the number of prizes was in January 2020,19 and 18 ???
    I don't seem to have them and a quick search on the pb site only goes back 6 months

    I posted the number of €50 prizes at the start of each month in 2020. I actually went back and found the posts for a post I made a couple of weeks back, but I did not keep the numbers.

    I am using the front of a cigar box for my computations, a much superior product:)


  • Registered Users Posts: 714 ✭✭✭Agent Smyth


    According to the Prize bonds "The value of the prize fund is recalculated at the end of every month, in line with the monthly net sales of Prize Bonds"

    Todays draw has 4409 prizes which equates to a yearly PF of €15,588,800, which is .35% of €4,453,942,065

    The draw on the 4th of Jan had 5745 prizes which equates to a PF of €20,162,400, which is .5% of €4,032,480,000

    I'm not sure how the PB present the fund in their accounts but if they say there is more in the fund than the above figure then there should have been more prizes awarded*

    * the usual T&Cs apply to my figures


    Just looking at this again and I've only noticed the 420 odd growth in Jan of this year, am I correct with my figures????


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,562 ✭✭✭✭dxhound2005


    During the Live Line discussion, State Savings sent Joe Duffy a statement saying that the prize fund will be coming down from approx €20 million (the actual figure paid out in 2020 will have to wait for the Annual Report) to approximately €14 million. The reduction from 0.50% to 0.35% is 30%. 70% of €20m is €14m.

    The fixed amount for big prizes was known at the start of the year, when they reduced the number of prizes in January. This was ahead of any public knowledge of the impending change. That fixed amount has to be taken into account each month when the number of €50 prizes is being recalculated.

    Just for arguments sake, if there was some scandal in the morning and €2 billion was withdrawn in the next month, then all calculations would go out the window.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 383 ✭✭Saudades


    pbwinner wrote: »
    Winnings on 5th February 2021: €0
    Last win 18th December 2020: €100
    Total winnings on €25k from Feb 2011 to date: €3150
    2011: €75 x 4 = €300
    2012: €75 x 6 = €450
    2013: €50 x 12 = €600
    2014: €50 x 9 = €450
    2015: €50 x 5 = €250
    2016: €50 x 5 = €250
    2017: €50 x 4 = €200
    2018: €50 x 2 = €100
    2019: €50 x 6 = €300
    2020: €50 x 5 = €250
    2021: €0

    10 year anniversary?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,023 ✭✭✭✭adox


    Nothing for me again this week.

    Last win was last October.


  • Registered Users Posts: 714 ✭✭✭Agent Smyth


    Okay so after dxhounds suggestion I came back from the shops this morning with a packet of Hamlet and did this
    Fund value at the end of each month, the growth in each month for 2020 and then the fund value for the last 3 years

    December €4,032,480,000 Growth (30,160,000)
    November €4,062,640,000 Growth €44,200,000
    October €4,018,440,000 Growth €44,204,000
    September €3,974,240,000 Growth €33,280,000
    August €3,940,960,000 Growth €35,880,000
    July €3,905,080,000 Growth €24,960,000
    June €3,880,120,000 Growth €39,520,000
    May €3,840,600,000 Growth €45,240,000
    April €3,795,360,000 Growth €46,280,000
    March €3,749,080,000 Growth €50,200,000
    February €3,698,880,000 Growth €16,880,000
    January €3,682,000,000 Growth €27,040,000

    2020 €4,032,480,000
    2019 €3,654,960,000
    2018 €3,404,320,000

    In December 2020 there was a net reduction in the prize fund of €30,160,000 which IIRC is the second time this has happened since I started posting in this thread but I don't recall seeing any like the growth we had in January of this year €421,462,857 before or any where near it (if my figures are correct)


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,694 ✭✭✭Hibernicis


    Okay so after dxhounds suggestion I came back from the shops this morning with a packet of Hamlet and did this
    Fund value at the end of each month, the growth in each month for 2020 and then the fund value for the last 3 years

    December €4,032,480,000 Growth (30,160,000)
    November €4,062,640,000 Growth €44,200,000
    October €4,018,440,000 Growth €44,204,000
    September €3,974,240,000 Growth €33,280,000
    August €3,940,960,000 Growth €35,880,000
    July €3,905,080,000 Growth €24,960,000
    June €3,880,120,000 Growth €39,520,000
    May €3,840,600,000 Growth €45,240,000
    April €3,795,360,000 Growth €46,280,000
    March €3,749,080,000 Growth €50,200,000
    February €3,698,880,000 Growth €16,880,000
    January €3,682,000,000 Growth €27,040,000

    2020 €4,032,480,000
    2019 €3,654,960,000
    2018 €3,404,320,000

    In December 2020 there was a net reduction in the prize fund of €30,160,000 which IIRC is the second time this has happened since I started posting in this thread but I don't recall seeing any like the growth we had in January of this year €421,462,857 before or any where near it (if my figures are correct)

    Hi AS
    That is very interesting, thank you. May I please ask a few questions:

    Did you calculate the monthly values, and if so was it by working back from the following month’s prize fund?
    If not, what is the source of the monthly values ?
    What’s the source for the January 2021 increase ?

    Thank you


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,562 ✭✭✭✭dxhound2005


    There would have been a net increase in the fund in December, not a reduction. The number of €50 prizes were reduced in January, but this was State Savings having the knowledge that the impending reduction to the interest rate was coming. One month at 0.50% and eleven months at 0.35% would have been part of the calculations. But also the fixed amount for big prizes for the full year of 2021 would form part of the calculations.


  • Registered Users Posts: 714 ✭✭✭Agent Smyth


    Hi Hibernicis
    Yes I used the prize fund from each month that is on the PB website and thanks to dxhound supplying the €50 prize numbers for the months that were missing,
    I was able calculate the bond fund at the end of each month
    I've no idea why the fund grew by such a large amount, the biggest IIRC was about 2 to 3 times the normal growth and I think that was around the time they put a limit on personal holdings
    my own guess is it's either the PB people clearing a back log of unprocessed bond sales (probably an unlikely reason) or it's some sort of institutional buying like a pension fund or maybe an organisation trying to avoid negative interest rates on large cash deposits
    We probably will never know but it's like a years growth and then some in one month

    By any chance can any of the winners in the first draw of January and those of the first draw of February that reinvest their winnings post the numbers of the new bonds they received
    I don't necessarily need the full number just the letters will do, I'm just trying to see my growth figure for January is correct, if I'm correct the should a big jump in the letters used??


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,093 ✭✭✭tuisginideach


    Sorry, I can't help - I take the money currently although I'm thinking of changing that to reinvestment.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,694 ✭✭✭Hibernicis


    I can’t help either as I didn’t win anything in January !

    I’m genuinely puzzled by the €4.4bn figure. Has the €4.4bn been published anywhere or is it a calculation ? Pension funds, companies and and other bodies corporate are no longer allowed to purchase prize bonds so that can’t be it. An increase of €421m in one month would require and extraordinary number of individuals investing large amounts (e.g. 1,684 individuals purchasing the maximum holding of €250k or the equivalent).

    Charlie Weston in this article in the Indo states that the year end figure was €4.1bn (I think that this article was based on a press release from State Savings, though I am not certain).

    I might play with the figures in a spreadsheet tonight (being a non smoker it’s the best I can do, not having access to fag packets and cigar boxes)


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,694 ✭✭✭Hibernicis


    There would have been a net increase in the fund in January, not a reduction. The number of €50 prizes were reduced in January, but this was State Savings having the knowledge that the impending reduction to the interest rate was coming. One month at 0.50% and eleven months at 0.35% would have been part of the calculations. But also the fixed amount for big prizes for the full year of 2021 would form part of the calculations.

    Surely they would have had to calculate the January prizes based on the old prize structure exclusively until the coming into force of the new prize structure on 5th February ?


  • Registered Users Posts: 714 ✭✭✭Agent Smyth


    Just went back over my notes and a quick search through the thread to see how my YE figures compare to the PB's accounts
    On a side note reading some of my earlier post really made me cringe at times, what was I thinking if I was thinking at all
    Anyhow for pig iron's sake here's my YE figures using the prizes fund in Jan of each year vs the PB's accounts

    2020 €4,032,480,000
    Not available yet
    2019 €3,654,960,000
    €3655.M
    2018 €3,404,320,000
    €3415.2M
    2017 €3,169,800,000
    €3170.1M
    2016 €2,894,423,529
    €2894.3M
    2015 €2,442,816,000
    €2481.M
    2015 €2,176,368,000
    €2176.4M

    And I came across a figure I did for Oct 2011 €1,330,946,666


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,562 ✭✭✭✭dxhound2005


    The Annual Reports for years before 2015 are on Google. 2011 end of year says value of fund €1,448 million. Some of the earlier years will have to be dug out of the NTMA reports, not stand alone Prize Bonds reports.

    It's easy to work out an approximate value of sales for current months, by taking the newest bond number to win a prize at the start and the end of the month. I figure that there were sales of €75 m in Dec 2020. So there is no way that the January €50 prizes should have gone down, unless the January calculation is connected to the overall annual calculation.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,465 ✭✭✭Asus X540L


    I've been buying Prize Bonds since last April. I now have approx €8,175.

    Have won two things since - Jack and Shít.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,065 ✭✭✭✭billyhead


    For those who haven't won anything why don't you invest in the saving certs or bonds. You gain interest and give 7 days notice to withdraw at any time. The longer you leave the investment the better return.


  • Registered Users Posts: 527 ✭✭✭Cal04


    Can you tell us more billyhead, are there risks with them?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,205 ✭✭✭cruizer101


    With the bonds there is no risk similar to prize bonds but at the same time the return isn't great.
    The 10yr which is best gives 10% at the end of 10 years, equivalent to 0.96%AER.
    However if you take your money out early you don't get the same rate, eg. after 7years you get 1% total not 0.96%*7.
    If you compare to pbwinner further up thread who got 3,150 on 25k over 10 years that is ~12%, so is better than the bond.
    You are not guaranteed that, but with enough prize bonds you should get something and might win big.
    Is it the best investment you could make, maybe not, but its not a bad one either.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,465 ✭✭✭Asus X540L


    billyhead wrote: »

    All state savings aren't really that good to be honest.

    When my fixed term mortgage expires I'm pumping everything in there.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,065 ✭✭✭✭billyhead


    cruizer101 wrote: »
    With the bonds there is no risk similar to prize bonds but at the same time the return isn't great.
    The 10yr which is best gives 10% at the end of 10 years, equivalent to 0.96%AER.
    However if you take your money out early you don't get the same rate, eg. after 7years you get 1% total not 0.96%*7.
    If you compare to pbwinner further up thread who got 3,150 on 25k over 10 years that is ~12%, so is better than the bond.
    You are not guaranteed that, but with enough prize bonds you should get something and might win big.
    Is it the best investment you could make, maybe not, but its not a bad one either.

    It's better than having money rotting in an account in the bank. If you have say your mortgage paid off and are risk adverse i.e don't want to invest in stocks or shares it's a good investment i.e the 10 year solidarity bonds.


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