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Covid 19 Part XXXII-215,743 ROI (4,137 deaths)111,166 NI (2,036 deaths)(22/02)Read OP

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Comments

  • #872
    runawaybishop
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,523 ✭✭✭runawaybishop


    CalamariFritti wrote: »
    It needs to be stated clearly for once and all what the actual goal is. A clear metric with no back tracking.

    Is it to get to a point where the health service will not be overwhelmed?
    Is it herd immunity through vaccination/spread?
    Is it driving covid to zero?

    We need to define and state the goal. This never ending 'we are concerned about this, we are worried about that, what if xyzzy happens' has to stop. If you dont know what your objective is well then you're never gonna achieve it. Whatever it is.

    I saw someone on one of these threads shared an interesting chart that showed the most age risk demographics and the population numbers involved, and contrasted that with the vaccination groups and the numbers required to vaccinate each group.

    Basically there are diminishing returns as you go down the groups, but something like 2 million vaccinations eliminates 99% of the current severe hospital cases and deaths.

    If we are supposedly basing lockdowns around hospital numbers then logically as we move down through the most at risk groups our deaths and hospitalisations should fall off a cliff. Obviously there is still a danger in allowing a huge amount of lower risk people to contract covid, and potentially require hospitalisation, but the pressure should be massively off the health system and allow restrictions to be relaxed.

    That all assumes we don't go for a low/zero covid approach.


  • #873
    hmmm
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,203 ✭✭✭✭hmmm


    The negativity at the moment is ridiculous, we're the only country in the world where our politicians and state media are trying to talk down the prospect of the pandemic ending.

    The vaccines work incredibly well, we are so lucky. The only problem is making enough, and the manufacturers are ramping up supply fast. If the virus changes, we might need a booster shot every few years - big deal. Johnson & Johnson are announcing results next week, and the chatter is that it will be good enough (which is all we need).

    As a country we've brought an out-of-control virus spread down, and by the time March arrives we should be in a good place in terms of numbers.

    There's lots of finger pointing at people going on holidays and people walking along beaches and mountains, but it's obvious that the problem in December was caused by indoor hospitality, and then a "normal" Christmas for many. We won't have the same pressures over the next few months, and hopefully the politicians don't repeat the same mistake of re-opening indoor hospitality before widespread vaccination.

    We ran a budget deficit of around 20 billion last year, less than the 30 billion which was estimated. About half of that 20 billion was purchased by the ECB and will cost us nothing. The other 10 billion disappeared into 20 and 30 year bonds which are costing us half of one percent in interest. We can borrow more this year to see us through this, including keeping businesses alive and helping people out with PUP.

    We don't quite know how this is going to play out, but I'm banking on most people who want a vaccine getting it by Summer, and a second half of this year seeing life returning to normal.


  • #874
    KrustyUCC
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,077 ✭✭✭KrustyUCC


    They'll never box themselves in like that

    Sure they had a plan for Christmas which didn't even make it to Christmas without being changed

    They're very reluctant to offer specifics as then they can't be called out on it

    It seems the plan is to get cases low then a slow slow slow reopening similar to last year which will cost billions and many businesses

    All the while holding further restrictions as a stick to beat people with

    Sure apparently even with the entire population vaccinated you couldn't be sure about more restrictions being needed

    Good ole Leo being really setting us up for the rest of the year


  • #875
    Happydays2020
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,677 ✭✭✭Happydays2020


    hmmm wrote: »
    The negativity at the moment is ridiculous, we're the only country in the world where our politicians and state media are trying to talk down the prospect of the pandemic ending.

    The vaccines work incredibly well, we are so lucky. The only problem is making enough, and the manufacturers are ramping up supply fast. If the virus changes, we might need a booster shot every few years - big deal. Johnson & Johnson are announcing results next week, and the chatter is that it will be good enough (which is all we need).

    As a country we've brought an out-of-control virus spread down, and by the time March arrives we should be in a good place in terms of numbers.

    There's lots of finger pointing at people going on holidays and people walking along beaches and mountains, but it's obvious that the problem in December was caused by indoor hospitality, and then a "normal" Christmas for many. We won't have the same pressures over the next few months, and hopefully the politicians don't repeat the same mistake of re-opening indoor hospitality.

    We ran a budget deficit of around 20 billion last year, less than the 30 billion which was estimated. About half of that 20 billion was purchased by the ECB and will cost us nothing. The other 10 billion disappeared into 20 and 30 year bonds which are costing us half of one percent in interest.

    We don't quite know how this is going to play out, but I'm banking on most people who want a vaccine getting it by Summer, and a second half of this year seeing life returning to normal.

    This post deserves a thousand thanks.


  • #876
    Arghus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,194 ✭✭✭✭Arghus


    CalamariFritti wrote: »
    It needs to be stated clearly for once and all what the actual goal is. A clear metric with no back tracking.

    Is it to get to a point where the health service will not be overwhelmed?
    Is it herd immunity through vaccination/spread?
    Is it driving covid to zero?

    We need to define and state the goal. This never ending 'we are concerned about this, we are worried about that, what if xyzzy happens' has to stop. If you dont know what your objective is well then you're never gonna achieve it. Whatever it is.

    I don't know if I can agree with this because I never disagree with the Government's strategy, well, apparently I don't.


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  • #877
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    FintanMcluskey wrote: »
    Aren’t males more likely to suffer heart issues, obesity and diabetes?

    Those are certainly prerequisite’s for suffering severe effects of Covid

    According to a BBC doc I watched presented by Dr Ronx, regardless of other risk factors the small Y chromosome means that first line defends is quite a lot poorer than people having xx. So Covid or indeed any virus gets in past the barrier and the immune system then goes into a more dangerous overdrive to try and rid the virus. Females have better immune defended, but by the same token are more prone to autoimmune diseases than males. It was a very revealing documentary.


  • #878
    Itssoeasy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 41,095 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    hmmm wrote: »
    The negativity at the moment is ridiculous, we're the only country in the world where our politicians and state media are trying to talk down the prospect of the pandemic ending.

    The vaccines work incredibly well, we are so lucky. The only problem is making enough, and the manufacturers are ramping up supply fast. If the virus changes, we might need a booster shot every few years - big deal. Johnson & Johnson are announcing results next week, and the chatter is that it will be good enough (which is all we need).

    As a country we've brought an out-of-control virus spread down, and by the time March arrives we should be in a good place in terms of numbers.

    There's lots of finger pointing at people going on holidays and people walking along beaches and mountains, but it's obvious that the problem in December was caused by indoor hospitality, and then a "normal" Christmas for many. We won't have the same pressures over the next few months, and hopefully the politicians don't repeat the same mistake of re-opening indoor hospitality before widespread vaccination.

    We ran a budget deficit of around 20 billion last year, less than the 30 billion which was estimated. About half of that 20 billion was purchased by the ECB and will cost us nothing. The other 10 billion disappeared into 20 and 30 year bonds which are costing us half of one percent in interest. We can borrow more this year to see us through this, including keeping businesses alive and helping people out with PUP.

    We don't quite know how this is going to play out, but I'm banking on most people who want a vaccine getting it by Summer, and a second half of this year seeing life returning to normal.

    Don’t fancy being Taoiseach do you ? I’d vote for you based on that post alone. It’s clear and optimistic but not over optimistic.


  • #879
    D.Q
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,054 ✭✭✭D.Q


    hmmm wrote: »
    The negativity at the moment is ridiculous, we're the only country in the world where our politicians and state media are trying to talk down the prospect of the pandemic ending.

    The vaccines work incredibly well, we are so lucky. The only problem is making enough, and the manufacturers are ramping up supply fast. If the virus changes, we might need a booster shot every few years - big deal. Johnson & Johnson are announcing results next week, and the chatter is that it will be good enough (which is all we need).

    As a country we've brought an out-of-control virus spread down, and by the time March arrives we should be in a good place in terms of numbers.

    There's lots of finger pointing at people going on holidays and people walking along beaches and mountains, but it's obvious that the problem in December was caused by indoor hospitality, and then a "normal" Christmas for many. We won't have the same pressures over the next few months, and hopefully the politicians don't repeat the same mistake of re-opening indoor hospitality before widespread vaccination.

    We ran a budget deficit of around 20 billion last year, less than the 30 billion which was estimated. About half of that 20 billion was purchased by the ECB and will cost us nothing. The other 10 billion disappeared into 20 and 30 year bonds which are costing us half of one percent in interest. We can borrow more this year to see us through this, including keeping businesses alive and helping people out with PUP.

    We don't quite know how this is going to play out, but I'm banking on most people who want a vaccine getting it by Summer, and a second half of this year seeing life returning to normal.

    Gonna get this printed on a Tshirt


  • #880
    mcburns07
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,404 ✭✭✭mcburns07


    runawaybishop wrote: »
    I saw someone on one of these threads shared an interesting chart that showed the most age risk demographics and the population numbers involved, and contrasted that with the vaccination groups and the numbers required to vaccinate each group.

    Basically there are diminishing returns as you go down the groups, but something like 2 million vaccinations eliminates 99% of the current severe hospital cases and deaths.

    If we are supposedly basing lockdowns around hospital numbers then logically as we move down through the most at risk groups our deaths and hospitalisations should fall off a cliff. Obviously there is still a danger in allowing a huge amount of lower risk people to contract covid, and potentially require hospitalisation, but the pressure should be massively off the health system and allow restrictions to be relaxed.

    That all assumes we don't go for a low/zero covid approach.

    The long covid prophets of doom will be along shortly.


  • #881
    Russman
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,978 ✭✭✭Russman


    Golfman64 wrote: »
    To be fair, there have been some very specific studies demonstrating that the risk of transmission while in an aircraft is very low.

    https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/10/20/925892185/do-masks-really-cut-your-risk-of-catching-covid-19-on-long-plane-flights

    That’s not to say the the current and new restrictions announced today are meaningless. I think they serve a purpose until we reduce hospital rates and get ourselves back to a better status on the EU Traffic Light System. But I really don’t believe the risk is actually on the plane.

    Not to be pedantic but I’m not sure it’s as clear cut wrt flights

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/transmission-of-covid-19-on-flight-into-ireland-linked-to-59-infections-1.4390728

    To be fair it’s not 100% clear cut with that one either but I think it’s still a bit grey.


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  • #882
    CalamariFritti
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,309 ✭✭✭CalamariFritti


    Arghus wrote: »
    I don't know if I can agree with this because I never disagree with the Government's strategy, well, apparently I don't.

    You only ever disagree with it when its not strict enough in your opinion it appears.

    Would you not agree that we need to state what the endgame is?i

    People want to get back to normal. Not a new normal but the actual normal. The pre-covid normal. We need to define clearly on what condition and how we are going to do this. If we dont even know where we're going how are we going to get there?


  • #883
    Car99
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,534 ✭✭✭Car99


    This government are going to loose the backing of the electorate in a very short space of time. Only problem for the electorate is that their is no competent replacement.
    I must say though I'd rather listen to Harris and Leo than Micheal and Donnelly not from a political stand point( they're basically the same) but on the ability to deliver updates in a clear and concise way.


  • #884
    Cork2021
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,436 ✭✭✭Cork2021


    800 patients catching covid in hospital.
    Have these been put in as admissions even though they were there for something else??


  • #885
    Cluedo Monopoly
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,456 ✭✭✭✭Cluedo Monopoly


    CalamariFritti wrote: »
    It needs to be stated clearly for once and all what the actual goal is. A clear metric with no back tracking.

    Is it to get to a point where the health service will not be overwhelmed?
    Is it herd immunity through vaccination/spread?
    Is it driving covid to zero?

    We need to define and state the goal. This never ending 'we are concerned about this, we are worried about that, what if xyzzy happens' has to stop. If you dont know what your objective is well then you're never gonna achieve it. Whatever it is.

    I said that as soon as MM came out with the confusing Living with Covid plan. They needed target metrics to show what would trigger level changes. People needed targets or thresholds to focus on. Cause and effect. ICU numbers could have been one of them allied to a commitment to grow capacity significantly.

    What are they doing in the Hyacinth House?



  • #886
    KrustyUCC
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,077 ✭✭✭KrustyUCC


    Cork2021 wrote: »
    800 patients catching covid in hospital.
    Have these been put in as admissions even though they were there for something else??

    Yes

    Take tonights figure

    There's bound to be people in that figure who picked up COVID in hospital but it still means a patient in hospital with COVID


  • #887
    Ficheall
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,038 ✭✭✭Ficheall


    Golfman64 wrote: »
    To be fair, there have been some very specific studies demonstrating that the risk of transmission while in an aircraft is very low.
    ...while in an aircraft where everyone is wearing masks. Throw a few mask-deniers into the mix and it's a different prospect.


  • #888
    Technophobe
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,094 ✭✭✭Technophobe


    Plumbthedepths wrote: »
    Would love to head for a pint with friends, but rather kids back at school even though my youngest is 21.

    Must have stayed back a few years so :)


  • #889
    Itsaduck1
    Site Banned Posts: 54 ✭✭Itsaduck1


    Happydays2020 wrote: »
    This post deserves a thousand thanks.

    Yeah he's one of the best posters here


  • #890
    UrbanFret
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,056 ✭✭✭UrbanFret


    Deleted User wrote: »
    What's the chances of catching covid in the test centre of one of the testers not sanitizing properly between tests?


    Well given that the test centre is where most of those with the virus end up, the chances of catching it there are much higher than in the general population.


  • #891
    Frank Bullitt
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,997 ✭✭✭✭Frank Bullitt


    hmmm wrote: »
    The negativity at the moment is ridiculous, we're the only country in the world where our politicians and state media are trying to talk down the prospect of the pandemic ending.

    The vaccines work incredibly well, we are so lucky. The only problem is making enough, and the manufacturers are ramping up supply fast. If the virus changes, we might need a booster shot every few years - big deal. Johnson & Johnson are announcing results next week, and the chatter is that it will be good enough (which is all we need).

    As a country we've brought an out-of-control virus spread down, and by the time March arrives we should be in a good place in terms of numbers.

    There's lots of finger pointing at people going on holidays and people walking along beaches and mountains, but it's obvious that the problem in December was caused by indoor hospitality, and then a "normal" Christmas for many. We won't have the same pressures over the next few months, and hopefully the politicians don't repeat the same mistake of re-opening indoor hospitality before widespread vaccination.

    We ran a budget deficit of around 20 billion last year, less than the 30 billion which was estimated. About half of that 20 billion was purchased by the ECB and will cost us nothing. The other 10 billion disappeared into 20 and 30 year bonds which are costing us half of one percent in interest. We can borrow more this year to see us through this, including keeping businesses alive and helping people out with PUP.

    We don't quite know how this is going to play out, but I'm banking on most people who want a vaccine getting it by Summer, and a second half of this year seeing life returning to normal.

    This has made my day better, I owe you a pint.


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  • #892
    bikeman1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,461 ✭✭✭bikeman1


    At the end of last year with cases rising, I decided that January to March were going to be a write off for anything other than being pretty locked down with lots of restrictions. If there was any improvement to that, it would be a bonus.

    I took this hit on my mind, that life was going to be very restricted. I got over this and made a plan to try and enjoy what things I do have for these 3 months.

    I didn’t know if the tactic would work, but today I didn’t feel a jot of bother by the extended restrictions and the travel restrictions (I do a lot of travel). It was totally bearable on my mental health. Gone was the frustration. My next review date is on 31 March, if we get any relaxation before that then happy days.

    The media have really gone psycho on this, it’s literally non stop all day long. I’m wondering who is next on their hit list? There’s not much left. My money is on people queuing for a takeaway coffee while out for a stroll.

    If you are finding it a bit much, go for a media blackout all day tomorrow and check back in on Thursday. It’ll do you mind wonders.


  • #893
    KrustyUCC
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,077 ✭✭✭KrustyUCC


    I think this is an appalling look from Martin

    https://twitter.com/SeanDefoe/status/1354112169558888448

    Joking about hospitality which is the livelihoods for so many people in this country and would be something for all people who haven't a social outlet from December

    Yes by May we probably will be thirsty


  • #894
    Stheno
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,690 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    bikeman1 wrote: »
    At the end of last year with cases rising, I decided that January to March were going to be a write off for anything other than being pretty locked down with lots of restrictions. If there was any improvement to that, it would be a bonus.

    I took this hit on my mind, that life was going to be very restricted. I got over this and made a plan to try and enjoy what things I do have for this 3 months.

    I didn’t know if the tactic would work, but today I didn’t feel a jot of bother by the extended restrictions and the travel restrictions (I do a lot of travel). It was totally bearable on my mental. Gone was the frustration. My next review date is on 31 March, if we get any relaxation before that then happy days.

    .

    I pretty much did the same over Christmas

    It has done wonders for me

    My Oh has completely switched off and gets updates from me

    The result of both is that we are happier tbh


  • #895
    NIMAN
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 35,788 ✭✭✭✭NIMAN


    Frank Bullitt wrote: »
    This has made my day better, I owe you a pint.

    Anyone know a good shebeen?


  • #896
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 5,311 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    KrustyUCC wrote: »
    I think this is an appalling look from Martin

    https://twitter.com/SeanDefoe/status/1354112169558888448

    Joking about hospitality which is the livelihoods for so many people in this country and would be something for all people who haven't a social outlet from December

    Yes by May we probably will be thirsty

    MM coming across as a thick. "Thirst on ya hur hur hur". Traditional publicans have been shafted the past ten months and he comes out with that flippant comment. People losing their business is hilarious if you're an a high earner insulated from harsh realities.


  • #897
    bb1234567
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,513 ✭✭✭bb1234567


    Deleted User wrote: »
    If the Covid positivity rate is 10% and they are not testing close contacts at the minute. What do the other 90% have?

    Presumably they are requesting tests due to having symptoms.

    A lot of them are routine testing of healthcare staff, nursing home staff etc


  • #898
    NIMAN
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 35,788 ✭✭✭✭NIMAN


    bb1234567 wrote: »
    A lot of them are routine testing of healthcare staff, nursing home staff etc

    Yeah but a lot of them aren't.

    So it's safe to assume there are still large numbers of people with the standard flu?


  • #899
    accensi0n
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,980 ✭✭✭accensi0n


    ceadaoin. wrote: »
    I genuinely don't get what is going on in ireland. Things here in the US are starting to get back to normal. Some places have been out of restrictions for months, others, even California who have seen record cases in recent weeks, are starting to lift them. Cases, hospitalisations and deaths are falling fairly rapidly all over.

    The US had their second highest daily death figure ever less than a week ago..


  • #900
    DebDynamite
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,727 ✭✭✭DebDynamite


    Arghus wrote: »
    Well he was asked a hypothetical question by the journalist - Gavin Ó Reilly I think - about if we vaccinate the population, what's the problem with throwing the borders open and letting everyone in unfettered?

    Leo's answer was we don't know if there's still a risk in that case and that there's an assumption out there that vaccination of enough of the people will achieve lasting herd immunity, but that's still uncertain, because it is.

    He didn't just throw it out there as a non sequitur, it was a wider part of an answer to a question. Without the question I doubt he would have even mentioned it.

    He pretty much said the same on Claire Byrne Live last night when they were discussing zero covid. He said if we brought in mandatory quarantine, it would mean not seeing family at Christmas and into next year. It came across really petty in a “careful what you wish for, guys” kinda way. He’s obviously still sticking with this line until the zero covid talk dies down.


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  • #901
    cannotlogin
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,172 ✭✭✭cannotlogin


    People need to stop listening to a stupid comment from Leo and look at the facts. If he was Einstein or something maybe but let's face it, he's a politician and therefore you can take most of what he says with a pinch of salt.

    The government messed up with Christmas opening & now they are doing whst most people who mess up do...over correcting by saying they'll never open too early again.

    Look at the facts:-

    1. Case numbers are falling

    2. Deaths will fall too but there's about a 25 day lag so give it 3/4 weeks to judge

    3. Vaccines are coming

    4. Once HCW & the elderly & vulnerable are vaccinated, there will be multiple positives. Less cases, less deaths & less absenteeism which reduces pressure on hospitals

    5. If things keep going the way they are going (& in fairnesses there are no guarantees just positive indicators) we will see reduced restrictions come March and the lifting of restrictions will be gradual thereafter

    6. You can absolutely guarantee that if the trends continue, the vintners will start shouting after Paddy's day. Non retail, hospitality, hairdressers before that.

    7. The teachers will return to schools again once the numbers go down etc.

    Good news never sells. Only bad & sensational. Again this evening there's a headline stating 50 people attended a funeral in Wexford. 99% of funerals operate within restrictions, but that's not newsworthy etc.

    A small number of vaccines were spoilt...Again news...the vast majority were perfectly used.

    A small number of vaccines were given to people they shouldn't have been...Again the vast majority were not.

    I'm not saying we ignore the bad or negative or inappropriate. I'm just saying we have to start looking at context & realising there are more positives than negatives and we will get there. Bad news sells & if it's getting in on you, stop reading it, take a week's media break if it's too much. But focus on the positive or you'll drive yourself crazy.

    Not easy & i know people are suffering with anxiety, lonliness, job losses, fear re businesses, family finances etc. but don't be making it more difficulty by reading half the crap & sensationalism printed.


This discussion has been closed.
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