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Covid 19 Part XXXI-187,554 ROI (2,970 deaths) 100,319 NI (1,730 deaths)(24/01)Read OP

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Comments

  • #9362
    FintanMcluskey
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,624 ✭✭✭FintanMcluskey


    thelad95 wrote: »
    I have very little patience for other people anymore, this last twelve months has truly exposed the worst elements of humanity. A lot of people in my social circle I have lost all respect for with their attitude towards this pandemic.

    Can I ask what’s caused you to loose respect towards your friends or those in your social circle?


  • #9363
    titan18
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,052 ✭✭✭✭titan18


    niallo27 wrote: »
    What is the critical point of cases, so you really don't think having the longest restrictions in the world had any impact on how people acted at Christmas, not even a slight impact.

    I think the people who were selfish twats would still have been that no matter how the restrictions were at other points. A lot of them are still being that atm from what I'm seeing amongst people I know.


  • #9364
    podgeandrodge
    Site Banned Posts: 5,975 ✭✭✭podgeandrodge


    Qwertyminger wrote: »
    A friend left a voice message on a WhatsApp group I'm in yesterday and they were clearly at a party. We're not all adhering to them.

    You've fallen victim to the 'curse of the newly registered' - they all end up on the receiving end of societal carry on that is beyond most people's normal experience.


  • #9365
    _Whimsical_
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,992 ✭✭✭_Whimsical_


    Plumbthedepths wrote: »
    Sorry but Lambert is repeating what his patients told him . He has no evidence to suggest the virus is more transmissible via surfaces and it’s frankly very f**king irresponsible of him to suggest so.

    I realise that's true, it's anecdotal rather than evidence based, at the same time having been a patient of his in the past I'm inclined to respect his opinion, one of the reasons he is a good dr is that he does not take things at face value, interrogates everything and is very dismissive of what doesn't make sense. This is a moving target, Drs have to make judgement calls rather than wait for the peer reviewed rubber stamp. While I would not take this observation as gospel I will take it on board and be extra mindful of handling packing and washing hands/sanitising. That is all he was advocating, extra emphasis on washing and sanitising.


  • #9366
    FintanMcluskey
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,624 ✭✭✭FintanMcluskey


    titan18 wrote: »
    I think the people who were selfish twats would still have been that no matter how the restrictions were at other points. A lot of them are still being that atm from what I'm seeing amongst people I know.

    Can we deduce from that, those “selfish twats” will not adhere to guidelines under any circumstances?

    So the very cost effectiveness of stay at home orders and business closures can be questioned using that very logic?

    Those people will ignore guidelines regardless, and responsible people will take personal responsibility regardless of the strictest level of lockdown is mandated


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  • #9367
    Purple Papillon
    Closed Accounts Posts: 36 ✭Purple Papillon


    thelad95 wrote: »
    Lot of people losing the will to live slowly.

    As many have said, this isn't living it's simply existing. I've been extremely despondent myself lately and really and truly struggling to see any hope even with the vaccine.

    In my wider social circle, there's a large enough cohort who have no intention of taking it because they feel like they don't need it. People seriously need to be educated on how it's not just to protect you but to protect everyone else.

    I have very little patience for other people anymore, this last twelve months has truly exposed the worst elements of humanity. A lot of people in my social circle I have lost all respect for with their attitude towards this pandemic.

    The lockdown restrictions is not great or ideal but its what you make of it. The weather is OK, cold but dry for the most part. It's great to see so many people and families out walking. I remember the day I finished a long week in work just to rush to a pub on Friday night, suffer with a hangover Saturday, then come Sunday the weekend is almost gone and the Sunday evening fear sets in. The weekend is now more relaxed and I have more energy come Monday morning.


  • #9368
    podgeandrodge
    Site Banned Posts: 5,975 ✭✭✭podgeandrodge


    Can anyone confirm are the household restrictions on numbers visiting etc. advisory or legally mandated?
    Also, if someone were to visit another household for a gathering against advice/legal position, could their employer take action against them if they found out i.e. for putting other employees at increased risk? Thanks.


  • #9369
    Turtwig
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,578 ✭✭✭✭Turtwig


    niallo27 wrote: »
    What is the critical point of cases, so you really don't think having the longest restrictions in the world had any impact on how people acted at Christmas, not even a slight impact.

    No idea what the threshold is. That's one I'm hoping NPHET's modelling group will be able to refine further now. It's clear from their late Nov reports that they thought we were still above it but hopefully this latest shtfest will give them an even clearer picture of where the sensitivities lie.

    I never said people being given freedom from a longer restriction didn't have an impact. I don't doubt it was a factor. I don't think it is a significant a factor as you are making it out to be. If the communication from government was better people would have been more careful.

    Also your point about the graph. (which is ALL I was remarking on). You can't make the points you were making from that graph.


  • #9370
    Kunta Kinte
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 718 ✭✭✭Kunta Kinte


    niallo27 wrote: »
    We had the longest restrictions in the world and when the restrictions were loosened we went from the best in Europe to one of the worst in the world. The same thing happened in October to a lower scale.

    The longest restrictions in the world? What evidence do you have to backup that claim?


  • #9371
    FintanMcluskey
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,624 ✭✭✭FintanMcluskey


    Kunta Kinte wrote: »
    The longest restrictions in the world? What evidence do you have to backup that claim?

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/ireland-had-longest-lockdown-for-pubs-and-restaurants-in-europe-report-1.4414028%3fmode=amp
    Ireland’s first lockdown was by far the longest in Europe for bars, restaurants, cinemas and non-essential shops, according to a new report.

    The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) health system policy tracker states that public spaces defined as parks, restaurants, bars, cinemas, non-essential shops and services were closed in Ireland for 120 days from March 12th.

    The country with the next highest number of days where public spaces were shut was Finland (74 days) followed by Slovakia (66 days) and Bulgaria and Estonia (both 65 days).


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  • #9372
    titan18
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,052 ✭✭✭✭titan18


    FintanMcluskey wrote: »
    Can we deduce from that, those “selfish twats” will not adhere to guidelines under any circumstances?

    So the very cost effectiveness of stay at home orders and business closures can be questioned using that very logic?

    Those people will ignore guidelines regardless, and responsible people will take personal responsibility regardless of the strictest level of lockdown is mandated

    Not really, they can do a lot less damage ATM with things closed whereas with bars and restaurants open, they can spread things to a lot more people if they have it


  • #9373
    CIARAN_BOYLE
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,599 ✭✭✭✭CIARAN_BOYLE


    Turtwig wrote: »
    No idea what the threshold is. That's one I'm hoping NPHET's modelling group will be able to refine further now. It's clear from their late Nov reports that they thought we were still above it but hopefully this latest shtfest will give them an even clearer picture of where the sensitivities lie.

    I never said people being given freedom from a longer restriction didn't have an impact. I don't doubt it was a factor. I don't think it is a significant a factor as you are making it out to be. If the communication from government was better people would have been more careful.

    Also your point about the graph. (which is ALL I was remarking on). You can't make the points you were making from that graph.

    Asking someone to define the critical number is going to be impossible.

    I got a real sense going into December that they knew restrictions and guidance would be out the window. NPHET didn't want to open up unless cases were below 50.

    They might be more permissive at another time as there wouldn't be the same explosion of gathering. Let's say 200 cases a day.

    Then in March or April they may be even more permissive feeling that we can open up at a higher level of cases based on the numbers vaccinated. We might be in a position in late March where 600 cases a day would have the same effect on the health service as 200 cases a day last September.

    I do remember last year Nolan saying that that 600 cases a day was not a level the health service could maintain non covid care at.


  • #9374
    FintanMcluskey
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,624 ✭✭✭FintanMcluskey


    titan18 wrote: »
    Not really, they can do a lot less damage ATM with things closed whereas with bars and restaurants open, they can spread things to a lot more people if they have it

    Bur are we saying basic mitigation measures like social distancing and mask wearing in those places does not prevent spread?

    Was contact tracing in those places a waste of time?


  • #9375
    Turtwig
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,578 ✭✭✭✭Turtwig


    FintanMcluskey wrote: »
    Can we deduce from that, those “selfish twats” will not adhere to guidelines under any circumstances?

    So the very cost effectiveness of stay at home orders and business closures can be questioned using that very logic?

    Those people will ignore guidelines regardless, and responsible people will take personal responsibility regardless of the strictest level of lockdown is mandated

    That is very weird logic. Selfish twats misbehaving is the argument for removing control from the public. Shutting down as many indoor congregation points as possible.

    If everyone was responsible - and this includes businesses - then you would expect to be able to keep the spread autonomously suppressed. Trouble is we know it isn't. We know where super spreading events are likely to occur and sadly, these are places where selfish twats can have a major impact.


  • #9376
    titan18
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,052 ✭✭✭✭titan18


    FintanMcluskey wrote: »
    Bur are we saying basic mitigation measures like social distancing and mask wearing in those places does not prevent spread?

    Was contact tracing in those places a waste of time?

    Mask wearing in a bar or restaurant didn't happen anyway tbf, and I've seen plenty of places where the 6 to a table or social distancing wasnt adhered to or enforced.


  • #9377
    FintanMcluskey
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,624 ✭✭✭FintanMcluskey


    Turtwig wrote: »
    That is very weird logic. Selfish twats misbehaving is the argument for removing control from the public. Shutting down as many indoor congregation points as possible.

    If everyone was responsible - and this includes businesses - then you would expect to be able to keep the spread autonomously suppressed. Trouble is we know it isn't. We know where super spreading events are likely to occur and sadly, these are places where selfish twats can have a major impact.

    Where are super spreader events likely since basic mitigation measures have been introduced?

    Can you point to one responsible business that was found to be a cause of a super spreader event in Ireland?


  • #9378
    Kunta Kinte
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 718 ✭✭✭Kunta Kinte


    FintanMcluskey wrote: »
    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/ireland-had-longest-lockdown-for-pubs-and-restaurants-in-europe-report-1.4414028%3fmode=amp

    That report only covers European countries. You stated that Ireland had the longest in the world. What, if any, evidence do you have for that claim?


  • #9379
    Drumpot
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,306 ✭✭✭✭Drumpot


    froog wrote: »
    the argument that january was so bad cause we were too tough on people in 2020 is just dumb.

    Shows how inefficient people are at understanding what’s been happening and choosing to create the narrative that gives them the lockdown solution they favour.We need to try to learn from this as a society, I fear we won’t but it starts from education at school level.

    We are educated to conform into society with little encouragement or training for critical thinking or problem solving. Lack of self reflection is a huge deficiency. If every person was able to stand back, look at their own motives and see overall how what they want can cause damage things would work out a lot better in a crisis.

    It’s the governments fault. It’s NEPHETs fault. It’s children’s fault. It’s china’s fault.... Just stop this nonsense narrative, it doesn’t help on any level. The huge increase in numbers the last month are a result of the people of Ireland’s actions over that period, it’s that simple but people will try to muddy this fact with sentiments and emotions. We decided that a social event was more important then being more cautious. That is not an accusation, it’s a simple fact that cuts through all the hysterical nonsense in between. So we need to own our decision as a society to do that and not blame authorities or governments. We also need to accept that it wasn’t inevitable and there was no alternative to what happened in December , we just prioritized what we wanted, that was the definitive factor in the outcome.

    Blaming others Is just deflecting the conversation away from what we need to do. As many wise people would say if you are pointing at others you are neglecting yourself. There is a chronic lack of self responsibility being harnessed in Western cultures. Don’t give a flying f**k about anybody but themselves and don’t care to explore or address that characteristic.

    Mental health discussions are generally misguided or disguised to justify certain people’s wants during the lockdown. I’ve suffered from mental health issues all
    My life and the solution is not simply to rely on people places and things to make you feel better. It takes a lot of hard work. But that aside, you don’t change your strategy in a crisis because people are finding it hard. By its very definition a global crisis should be hard for a lot of people, otherwise it wouldn’t really be a global crisis. A crisis should at some time make us anxious and depressed. People need to accept that and try to manage things instead of looking for an emotional bail out. Those who manage a crisis emotionally well are far more likely to thrive.

    In terms of economy, there is no signs that we are economically in any trouble any time soon. Even those with a basic understanding of economics will know the country will not be collapsing. Some companies and Industry’s may not survive but others will replace them. This is not nice for those most impacted but in a crisis there is always portions of society who suffer more.

    Can anybody explain why EU has made such a balls of the vaccine rollouts? Germany and Hungary have done their own deals for extra vaccines, why can’t we try and get in on the Oxford vaccine? (Hungary borough the non EU approved Russian one). Sometimes I get annoyed at us being too much trying to tow line in Europe, buy more vaccine and bring in our own airport measures , close us off to countries and stop waiting for Germany to make unilateral decisions before following suit.

    That has been one of our biggest weaknesses. Very reactive and not very proactive. Why are there leaving cert exams still potentially on? Did nobody think last summer that maybe we should have a contingency plan and cut off dates to cancel the LC to get fair to children and teachers and collages? It’s deplorable and inexcusable. There are so many things we could of considered last summer that we could of prepared for and implemented seamlessly to lower the pressure and anxiety on everybody but instead they did nothing. Open up, close is the limits of our authorities , our government and our people. It’s sad and shameful because it didn’t have to be this bad or hard.


  • #9380
    BredonWimsey
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 227 ✭✭BredonWimsey


    FintanMcluskey wrote: »
    Where are super spreader events likely since basic mitigation measures have been introduced?

    Can you point to one responsible business that was found to be a cause of a super spreader event in Ireland?


    well what do you mean by responsible business


    you have businesses that may not be responsible


    its an oxymoran


    check out what happened in bellmullet


  • #9381
    Turtwig
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,578 ✭✭✭✭Turtwig


    FintanMcluskey wrote: »
    Where are super spreader events likely since basic mitigation measures have been introduced?

    Can you point to one responsible business that was found to be a cause of a super spreader event in Ireland?

    Given your previous posts I have no idea what you mean by basic mitigation measures. Please clarify.

    In the same way I can't say someone is a sex offender. I can't point out individual businesses as being irresponsible. Whether they are or not is largely immaterial. They are the locales where super spreading occurs.


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  • #9382
    runawaybishop
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,523 ✭✭✭runawaybishop


    snotboogie wrote: »
    More importantly than any of this, the vaccine reduces your chance of contracting the virus by about 90%....

    That's not proven yet, you are mistaking the reduction in severe symptoms with a prevention of transmission.


  • #9383
    FintanMcluskey
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,624 ✭✭✭FintanMcluskey


    Turtwig wrote: »
    Given your previous posts I have no idea what you mean by basic mitigation measures. Please clarify.

    In the same way I can't say someone is a sex offender. I can't point out individual businesses as being irresponsible. Whether they are or not is largely immaterial. They are the locales where super spreading occurs.

    Basic mitigation is mask wearing, social distancing and hygiene measures.

    So you don’t have any evidence of responsible businesses causing super spreading events


  • #9384
    Eivor
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 168 ✭✭Eivor


    Elessar wrote: »
    Put government officials and NPHET on a reduced "solidarity" wage like they did in New Zealand and watch how much quicker restrictions get lifted.

    Of course that wouldn't happen here in a million years.

    Not lifted but zero Covid would definitely been given a good go


  • #9385
    runawaybishop
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,523 ✭✭✭runawaybishop


    FintanMcluskey wrote: »
    Basic mitigation is mask wearing, social distancing and hygiene measures.

    So you don’t have any evidence of responsible businesses causing super spreading events

    If they are responsile then by definition they wouldn't cause superspreading events. There are plenty of irresponsible businesses causing huge issues.


  • #9386
    opinionated3
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,189 ✭✭✭opinionated3


    runawaybishop wrote: »
    That's not proven yet, you are mistaking the reduction in severe symptoms with a prevention of transmission.

    Maybe not 100% proven, but early research from those vaccinated in Israel is showing that they are not transmitters of the virus...... Hopefully that's borne out even more as the weeks go by


  • #9387
    Wolf359f
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,407 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    cameramonkey wrote: »
    Screen-Shot-2021-01-24-at-13-23-11.png

    Cases in Israel plummeting.
    MerlinSouthDub wrote: »
    There you go. Falling faster than anywhere else at the moment, even Israel. 540721.png

    Those 2 charts show a massive difference between the 2 :confused:
    One shows Israel dropping from a high of ~90 down to 60 (33% drop)
    The other a drop from 1000 to a little over 800 (20% drop)
    Israel's own hub shows the 7 day average drop from 8326 to 7074... What I am not seeing?
    7day.jpg


  • #9388
    runawaybishop
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,523 ✭✭✭runawaybishop


    opinionated3 wrote: »
    Maybe not 100% proven, but early research from those vaccinated in Israel is showing that they are not transmitters of the virus...... Hopefully that's borne out even more as the weeks go by

    Indeed, but I was responding being to someone that was saying the vaccines stop 90% of transmission. This is not correct.


  • #9389
    Turtwig
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,578 ✭✭✭✭Turtwig


    Drumpot wrote: »
    Can anybody explain why EU has made such a balls of the vaccine rollouts? Germany and Hungary have done their own deals for extra vaccines, why can’t we try and get in on the Oxford vaccine? (Hungary borough the non EU approved Russian one). Sometimes I get annoyed at us being too much trying to tow line in Europe, buy more vaccine and bring in our own airport measures , close us off to countries and stop waiting for Germany to make unilateral decisions before following suit.

    Decent commentary on this by Tony Connelly
    https://www.rte.ie/news/analysis-and-comment/2021/0123/1191535-europe-covid-analysis/

    Relevant bit:
    When the pandemic broke last year, Germany, France, the Netherlands and Italy set up the Inclusive Vaccine Alliance in order to boost their purchasing potential and to try to keep vaccine production in Europe.

    At the time, all the focus was on the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine.

    However, the EU decided in June that the European Commission should act as one agent in bulk buying vaccines for all 27 member states and the Inclusive Vaccine Alliance’s efforts were folded into the new approach.

    The imperative was to avoid member states competing against each other, and to ensure all member states got enough supplies at a more competitive price.

    Irish officials insist that, as a small member state in a free-for-all, Ireland would not have got the doses it needed at the right time, in the right quantities and at the right price. "We'd never get these prices or that quantity if we were competing with 26 other member states," said one senior Irish figure.

    In the event, across the portfolio of vaccines, the Government expects to have enough doses to vaccinate 8.3 million people, through single- or double-dose vaccines.

    Back in June, the Commission and member states set up a Steering Board to manage negotiations with the pharmaceutical companies. There was a febrile atmosphere, given the urgency to halt the pandemic in its tracks, the huge amounts of money involved, and the fact that member states jealously guard their competences when it comes to public health.

    There were also potentially 165 vaccines to choose from. While the lead candidates - Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna, AstraZeneca - are now household names, back then officials said it was like buying lottery tickets.

    "It's a bit like going to a horse race and you bet on a couple of horses, and afterwards someone comes along and says, it was very clear that this horse would win, why didn't you bet much more on it?" said one senior official.

    EU negotiators were desperately trying to decide which horse to back.

    "I remember dozens of calls where everybody was saying, AstraZeneca is the one which is going to come out first and be the most successful," recalled a senior EU official. "Look at where we stand now."

    Officials were under pressure from member states, who in turn appeared to take a liberal approach to the EU funds deployed to secure the contracts, under the Emergency Support Instrument (ESSI).

    "They knew we could afford [to take a] risk with the vaccination strategy," remarks one official. "Perhaps we could put money on companies for things that will never occur. No member state would ever have bought mRNA [on its own]."

    In the event, EU negotiators entered contracts with eight companies. A key issue was indemnity in the negotiations: who would be on the hook if the vaccines turned out to be unsafe?

    Liability normally rests with pharmaceutical companies, yet they were being asked to produce vaccines at breakneck speed. EU officials insist they ensured that liability would rest with the companies. In a contract for one of the cheaper vaccines, both sides agreed that member states would pay for legal costs if there was a problem. Apart from that, national capitals would remain indemnified from legal action.

    But what if the Commission had backed a whole range of vaccines and they all turned out to be successful? The EU would then be saddled with a massive and expensive surplus of doses. While the Commission had made provisions to pass those on to vulnerable countries, the terms of the contracts meant that indemnity only applied within the EU region.

    Tl;Dr luck mainly at what vaccines people chose.
    Ireland is too small to compete globally for them. We're reliant on the EU.


  • #9390
    Drumpot
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,306 ✭✭✭✭Drumpot


    Turtwig wrote: »
    Decent commentary on this by Tony Connelly
    https://www.rte.ie/news/analysis-and-comment/2021/0123/1191535-europe-covid-analysis/

    Relevant bit:


    Tl;Dr luck mainly at what vaccines people chose.
    Ireland is too small to compete globally for them. We're reliant on the EU.

    Thanks.

    So what’s to stop us doing what some countries are doing and buy a few extra ones ourselves? Isn’t the Oxford one cheap enough? Why can’t we buy a million or something? What is the cost of speeding things up to open economy? Perhaps it’s not that simple but it’s clear some countries are spending more to speed it up (like Germany)


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  • #9391
    MerlinSouthDub
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,627 ✭✭✭MerlinSouthDub


    Wolf359f wrote: »
    Those 2 charts show a massive difference between the 2 :confused:
    One shows Israel dropping from a high of ~90 down to 60 (33% drop)
    The other a drop from 1000 to a little over 800 (20% drop)
    Israel's own hub shows the 7 day average drop from 8326 to 7074... What I am not seeing?

    Oh, I didn't spot that. I can't explain it. The first chart (the 33% drop) is from the FT. It doesn't seem to be consistent with our world in data, or worldometer. Possibly they have one dodgy data point for yesterday's cases which is messing up the data? Hard to tell though


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