Covid 19 Part XXXI-187,554 ROI (2,970 deaths) 100,319 NI (1,730 deaths)(24/01)Read OP

kilkenny31 wrote: »

I imagine we are over the peak of new infections. Hospital admissions will peak next weekend. We are in the middle now. Things will slowly start to improve.

You can imagine Al you like but it's a pure guess when we have a backlog that has distorted daily figures for so long. It's extremely unlikely that a plateau has yet been reached. All indications suggest the end of next week for that, then a delay before a drop in numbers.

kilkenny31 wrote: »

I imagine we are over the peak of new infections. Hospital admissions will peak next weekend. We are in the middle now. Things will slowly start to improve.

I'm curious as to the reasoning with the delayed peak in hospital figures.
You can argue back on 15th April we peaked with cases and the very same day we peaked with hospital figures. Similar positivity rate and similar (but not as stringent) testing. You can argue the cases peaked a little later in April (ignoring the backlog that was announced)

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

You can imagine Al you like but it's a pure guess when we have a backlog that has distorted daily figures for so long. It's extremely unlikely that a plateau has yet been reached. All indications suggest the end of next week for that, then a delay before a drop in numbers.

Don't worry about the backlog. The swabs and positivity rate show we are hopefully over the hump in terms of actual daily numbers. Them lumping in any backlog into daily cases in the next few days won't change that fact.

Wolf359f wrote: »

I'm curious as to the reasoning with the delayed peak in hospital figures.
You can argue back on 15th April we peaked with cases and the very same day we peaked with hospital figures. Similar positivity rate and similar (but not as stringent) testing. You can argue the cases peaked a little later in April (ignoring the backlog that was announced)

I think then the testing lagged the hospital cases. Here the hospital cases are lagging the cases as expected. I think best case scenario is that hospital admissions peak sometime next week. Not unlikely as there was serious alarm on new cases by the 28th.

Happydays2020 wrote: »

I think then the testing lagged the hospital cases. Here the hospital cases are lagging the cases as expected. I think best case scenario is that hospital admissions peak sometime next week. Not unlikely as there was serious alarm on new cases by the 28th.

The testing was certainly lagging hospitalizations in December, just like March.

Wolf359f wrote: »

I'm curious as to the reasoning with the delayed peak in hospital figures.
You can argue back on 15th April we peaked with cases and the very same day we peaked with hospital figures. Similar positivity rate and similar (but not as stringent) testing. You can argue the cases peaked a little later in April (ignoring the backlog that was announced)

Because there had been numerous posts on here talking about doctors in hospitals seeing people much sooner then normal (3-4) days after the onset of symptoms. It has been suggested that this new strain gives a higher viral load. Its reasonable to assume that people show symptoms sooner and people require hospitalisations sooner.

That's why I think the hospitalisation won't be as bad as feard. I think our hospital figures are likely trailing our testing figures by max of a week. More likely 4-5 days.

Goldengirl wrote: »

Many people do not present to hospital early in their infection.

Red letter days are days 5 to 8 post confirmation, ( second week of infection) ,so a lag of around a week to 10 days to hospitalisation .
EDIT Are you talking about lagging numbers here ,misread your post?

I'm referring to the hospital peak being assumed to follow the case peak by ~7-10 days, which is different than the first peak.

Wolf359f wrote: »

I'm referring to the hospital peak being assumed to follow the case peak by ~7-10 days, which is different than the first peak.

The reason for the first peak coming after hospitalisations peak is that the testing system couldn't cope and wasn't testing all symptomatic even, never mind asymptomatic .

They didn't have enough capacity to test and results were delayed ..from mid March to mid April it was hard to get a referral , then a test , get a result back , never mind test and trace contacts .

The peak of this in hospitalisations will be somewhere from the middle of this month to the beginning of February as a lot of people infected and being hospitalised now were mixing in large household groups and had 5 or 6 contacts .

Those being tested in the last few days will have infected less as lower contacts but that drop will take a couple of weeks to go through .

We will not see numbers stabilising in hospital till February at the earliest .
And that will be at a very high level unfortunately.

podgeandrodge wrote: »

Regardless of timing of when we will get the vaccines etc., we've known for quite a long time that vaccines would arrive.

So I find it hard to understand, reading today, things like this:

"HSE chief operations officer Anne O’Connor HSE was looking at developing systems that would allow patients schedule their appointments for the Covid-19 vaccine online"

Professor Karina Butler, chair of the National Immunisation Advisory Committee said that "non-healthcare professionals, once trained-up as immunisers, could also be called upon to administer the vaccine as the programme ramps up".

Surely over the last few months they could have developed an online appointment system, and trained non healthcare people up as immunisers? Why did they have to wait until the vaccines arrived?

The people immunising know how to do it !

Its the specifics of the differing vaccines especially Pfizer Biontech and Moderna, storage dilutions side effects .
You can't do this without the actual vaccine there in front of you.


Also I saw a post on one of these threads which was a joke put up by a doctor to the theme of how many does it take to change a lightbulb.." took 30 staff to administer 25 vaccines " or words to that effect .

This post was training in hospital for immunisers but all the usual suspects jumped on the bandwagon to attack the amount of staff , etc etc. with no thought but that somebody in the HSE was wasting time, money and vaccines

No immuniser will give a dose of any drug , never mind a vaccine without being trained specifically in the vagaries and particulars of each one .
They then have to be certified as trained and accountable for any errors.

That is what you call " professional responsibility " .

Would you have it any other way ?

Goldengirl wrote: »

The people immunising know how to do it !

Its the specifics of the differing vaccines especially Pfizer Biontech and Moderna, storage dilutions side effects .
You can't do this without the actual vaccine there in front of you.


Also I saw a post on one of these threads which was a joke put up by a doctor to the theme of how many does it take to change a lightbulb.." took 30 staff to administer 25 vaccines " or words to that effect .

This post was training in hospital for immunisers but all the usual suspects jumped on the bandwagon to attack the amount of staff , etc etc. with no thought but that somebody in the HSE was wasting time, money and vaccines

No immuniser will give a dose of any drug , never mind a vaccine without being trained specifically in the vagaries and particulars of each one .
They then have to be certified as trained and accountable for any errors.

That is what you call " professional responsibility " .

Would you have it any other way ?

The faster they want to administer a vaccine the more people required.
One to take details and explain side effects while another gets the dose ready (it's not a single use jab like the flu vaccine) so has to be measured and checked etc... Then the form signed and checked.... it's not s jab and go like people somehow assume.

Another thing I was wondering about. The vials have to be defrosted and then diluted. Is that where the extra dose comes in, from excess saline? I thought the extra dose was from the factory. It's certainly a question for the Vaccine thread.

Twill be soon Cheltenham time again.....

Trainer Brian McMahon hit with three-month ban and €1,000 fine after falsifying documents and breaking quarantine rules

Clare trainer Brian McMahon has been hit with a €1,000 fine and banned from attending any Irish race track for three months after breaching quarantine restrictions when returning from the UK and falsifying documentation to attend a behind closed doors race meeting.

McMahon, an All-Ireland minor hurling winner with Clare in 1997, attended the Goffs Sales at Yorton Farm in the UK on December 17, but did not restrict his movements upon his return for the five days specified at that time under the Government's Covid-19 protocols.

The Ennis trainer did not provide the negative Covid-19 test result needed before attending an Irish race meeting when saddling unplaced favourite Warreedy (3/1) in the Molony Cup Handicap Chase at Thurles races on December 20.

McMahon also falsely completed the Health Screening Questionnaire to obtain the barcode necessary to attend when he answered ‘No’ to the question of whether he had travelled abroad in the previous 14 days with an Irish Horseracing Regulatory Board (IHRB) Referrals Committee convening earlier this week via Zoom to review the case.

"In his evidence, Mr McMahon explained he had attended the sales at Yorton Farm on behalf of a neighbour with the agreement that his neighbour would instead attend the races at Thurles on Mr McMahon’s behalf," an IHRB statement read.

"However, the day prior to the races at Thurles, Mr McMahon was informed by his neighbour that due to unforeseen circumstances he would be unable to attend the races, at which point Mr McMahon contacted three other individuals who held a stable pass for him.

"However, he was unable to obtain race day help for Thurles and he decided to bring the horse to the races himself. He accepted that this was reckless and completely the wrong thing to do and that following all the communication received from the IHRB since the resumption of racing that he should have been more aware of the gravity of the situation.
Irish Independent

HSE operations report 9/1.

Covid cases hospitalised 1353 as of 8pm - increase from 1214.

ICU confirmed Covid cases 120 as of 6.30pm - increase from 107.
3 deaths in ICU 24 hours up to 8am on 9/1.
Confirmed Covid cases ventilated 71 as of 6.30pm on 9/1 - increase from 65.
Available ICU beds 37 as of 6.30pm on 9/1. 9 ICUs with no available beds.