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Covid 19 Part XXXI-187,554 ROI (2,970 deaths) 100,319 NI (1,730 deaths)(24/01)Read OP

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Comments

  • #2072
    Endintheclowns
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 138 ✭✭Endintheclowns


    seamus wrote: »
    Today is the first day my projections have tilted back downwards.

    The 7-day positivity rate has dropped (by .28%) for the first time since 12th Dec.

    Two more days like that and we're on the road. Hopefully Monday will be a good day.

    I admire your optimisim but I think it's very misplaced. We are in for a very rough few weeks. People still need to be very careful and I'm just not seeing the same level of lockdown as we had in March/April and a huge amount of complacency is evident.


  • #2073
    spookwoman
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,059 ✭✭✭✭spookwoman


    JP Liz V1 wrote: »
    109 in total in ICU

    That's today.
    The op report published last night was for 2pm yesterday usually 8pm.
    It was updated to include 8pm this morning.

    Was just pointing out that 3 hospitals now over 10 people in ICU and 1 over 100 and another not far off 100 people.
    Hospitals are under serious pressure now.
    6 new hospitalisations in waterford yesterday and they have started to implement closing outpatient clinics.


  • #2074
    Plumbthedepths
    Closed Accounts Posts: 12,653 ✭✭✭✭Plumbthedepths


    JP Liz V1 wrote: »
    Any questions you'd like me to ask Tony

    When will the hairdressers open?


  • #2075
    St.Spodo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,027 ✭✭✭St.Spodo


    Early encouraging signs but maybe a little too early to tell if we're past the worst of the cases. Anecdotally I was aware of a good bit of socialising going on on NYE and we know the country was red hot by then. That might feed in to the data in the next couple of days. Anyway, let's hope we can get these numbers down fast.


  • #2076
    podgeandrodge
    Site Banned Posts: 5,975 ✭✭✭podgeandrodge


    Endintheclowns wrote: »
    I admire your optimisim but I think it's very misplaced. We are in for a very rough few weeks. People still need to be very careful and I'm just not seeing the same level of lockdown as we had in March/April and a huge amount of complacency is evident.


    Any word on what happened with that isolating Dublin doctor you told us died in his bedroom overnight a couple of nights ago? Expected to hear about it by now.


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  • #2077
    redarmy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,858 ✭✭✭redarmy


    JP Liz V1 wrote: »
    Any questions you'd like me to ask Tony[/quote. About weddings


  • #2078
    igCorcaigh
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 12,458 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    What we don't want to see is a plateau at a high level (R around 1) as what seems to be the case in England. That would leave us with a sustained 50ish deaths per day.


  • #2079
    What Username Guidelines
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,139 ✭✭✭What Username Guidelines


    MerlinSouthDub wrote: »
    5152 positive swabs
    18.88% + rate

    Making progress

    Couldn't have envisaged back in early December that I'd be thinking "phew" to >5,000 swabs in early January, but here we are. Progress.


  • #2080
    goingnowhere
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,379 ✭✭✭goingnowhere


    Most importantly is the numbers are DOWN but swabs processed are UP

    27,287 must be a daily record in swabs processed, not so long ago we struggled to handle 15k a day


  • #2081
    seamus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,190 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    DOCARCH wrote: »
    I think it may take longer to be more positive about the situation?

    With lack of testing of close contacts and lots of asymptomatic carriers out there, I think there could yet be a bit of a post Christmas/'back to work' bump in the numbers in a week or two.
    The outlook is tilted more towards the positive than the negative now.

    There's always the chance that one or two days is an outlier, but the data at the moment would indicate that if we're not passed the peak, we're there or thereabouts.

    If we see positivity rates around 22% between now and Monday, then we're still rubbing off the ceiling. If we see lower than that, then we're on the home stretch.

    At the insane levels of positivity we're at, I can't see anything that would be enough to cause a "bump" unless we went back to level 3. The suggestion that we could be seeing a "lull" from people not going out between Xmas and NYE is very valid. But I don't think the forecasted socialising on NYE really came to pass. IIRC, surveys have shown that the majority of people tend to do nothing or very small gathering at NYE. So this year would be even more muted yet.

    Hospital and ICU numbers will continue to be horrendous, even overwhelming for a while yet, but once we see swab numbers coming down we know there's respite coming eventually.


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  • #2082
    JP Liz V1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 91,198 ✭✭✭✭JP Liz V1


    Eod100 wrote: »
    Needs to be fixed fine for people breaching rules so obviously at this point tbh.

    I agree
    https://forumofgames.com/




  • #2083
    boardise
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,567 ✭✭✭boardise


    MerlinSouthDub wrote: »
    5152 positive swabs
    18.88% + rate

    Making progress

    I can feel myself becoming complacent already.


  • #2084
    boardise
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,567 ✭✭✭boardise


    leahyl wrote: »
    Exactly, they interpret the guidelines to fit the lives they want to live.


    Self-serving rationalisation is as old as the hills...built in to humans.


  • #2085
    Le Bruise
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,353 ✭✭✭Le Bruise


    goingnowhere wrote: »
    27,287 is a daily record in swabs processed, not so long ago we struggled to handle 15k a day

    A great argument for anyone saying the daily amount we're vaccinating right now will be as good as it gets!!


  • #2086
    JP Liz V1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 91,198 ✭✭✭✭JP Liz V1


    rob316 wrote: »
    My brother's friend is a doctor in a hospital in Cork and he said in the previous waves people were requiring hospitalization within 10 days, now its about 3 days. So we may see hospital figures peak much earlier.
    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    On another note, things are not good in CUH. Really bad. It's basically everywhere. Last I heard its 120 patients.

    :(
    https://forumofgames.com/




  • #2087
    Benimar
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,790 ✭✭✭Benimar


    seamus wrote: »
    The outlook is tilted more towards the positive than the negative now.

    There's always the chance that one or two days is an outlier, but the data at the moment would indicate that if we're not passed the peak, we're there or thereabouts.

    If we see positivity rates around 22% between now and Monday, then we're still rubbing off the ceiling. If we see lower than that, then we're on the home stretch.

    At the insane levels of positivity we're at, I can't see anything that would be enough to cause a "bump" unless we went back to level 3. The suggestion that we could be seeing a "lull" from people not going out between Xmas and NYE is very valid. But I don't think the forecasted socialising on NYE really came to pass. IIRC, surveys have shown that the majority of people tend to do nothing or very small gathering at NYE. So this year would be even more muted yet.

    Hospital and ICU numbers will continue to be horrendous, even overwhelming for a while yet, but once we see swab numbers coming down we know there's respite coming eventually.

    Whilst I agree that things seem to have peaked, I wouldn’t exactly classify us as being on the ‘home stretch’. Maybe it’s just your phrasing and I’m taking you up wrong, but even if we have peaked, we have a long, long way to go.

    People thinking the job is done (and I know you don’t) will just lengthen the time we have restrictions.


  • #2088
    bb1234567
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,513 ✭✭✭bb1234567


    Over 1300 deaths in UK. Pure **** show


  • #2089
    Duke of Url
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,662 ✭✭✭Duke of Url


    Benimar wrote: »
    Whilst I agree that things seem to have peaked, I wouldn’t exactly classify us as being on the ‘home stretch’. Maybe it’s just your phrasing and I’m taking you up wrong, but even if we have peaked, we have a long, long way to go.

    People thinking the job is done (and I know you don’t) will just lengthen the time we have restrictions.

    Yep based on the data for wave 1 & 2 increases are fast, decreases are very slow.


  • #2090
    wadacrack
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,172 ✭✭✭wadacrack


    Shocking numbers in the UK. Deaths 1,300 or so, 68,000 today cases today which means the worst it yet to come. Hospitals about to be overhelmed which means the death rate will also rise and potentially people who need hospital for other treatment may also suffer. Very sad to see but we need to stop flights from the UK. The risks are too high which our own health system on its knees at the minute.


  • #2091
    Arghus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,211 ✭✭✭✭Arghus


    Benimar wrote: »
    Whilst I agree that things seem to have peaked, I wouldn’t exactly classify us as being on the ‘home stretch’. Maybe it’s just your phrasing and I’m taking you up wrong, but even if we have peaked, we have a long, long way to go.

    People thinking the job is done (and I know you don’t) will just lengthen the time we have restrictions.

    I agree, far too early to say anything based on the swab data from one single day, even two or three days.

    I also think the "home stretch" is going to be a lot more stretched than people think - with plenty of ups and downs.


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  • #2092
    Arghus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,211 ✭✭✭✭Arghus


    Duke of Url wrote: »
    Yep based on the data for wave 1 & 2 increases are fast, decreases are very slow.

    A good rule when thinking about Covid is good things happen very slowly, bad things happen very fast.


  • #2093
    ginoginelli
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,332 ✭✭✭ginoginelli


    wadacrack wrote: »
    Shocking numbers in the UK. Deaths 1,300 or so, 68,000 today cases today which means the worst it yet to come. Hospitals about to be overhelmed which means the death rate will also rise and potentially people who need hospital for other treatment may also suffer. Very sad to see but we need to stop flights from the UK. The risks are too high which our own health system on its knees at the minute.

    I'd like to say I'm shocked that we lifted their travel ban but I'm really not.

    Throughout this whole pandemic it's being easy to predict our governments actions. Just think whatever is the common sense option, and then they will do the opposite.


  • #2094
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Arghus wrote: »
    I agree, far too early to say anything based on the swab data from one single day, even two or three days.

    I also think the "home stretch" is going to be a lot more stretchedthan people think - with plenty of ups and downs.
    Home stretch is the point where we peak and turn for home - but it's a good 3m away!


  • #2095
    TonyMaloney
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,150 ✭✭✭TonyMaloney


    Benimar wrote: »
    Whilst I agree that things seem to have peaked, I wouldn’t exactly classify us as being on the ‘home stretch’. Maybe it’s just your phrasing and I’m taking you up wrong, but even if we have peaked, we have a long, long way to go.

    People thinking the job is done (and I know you don’t) will just lengthen the time we have restrictions.

    It's absolutely vital we peak soon and the numbers start to drop rapidly. We can't live with the number of cases we've seen recently.
    To that end what we're seeing in the last number of days is very positive. This is what it usually looks like when you peak. I think the positivity rate will fall almost as fast as it rose from this point for a while.

    Of course that doesn't mean it's over. Not by a long shot. It wouldn't have been over anyway, but with the new variant in town what will happen in the coming months is very unclear.


  • #2096
    seamus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,190 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    Duke of Url wrote: »
    Yep based on the data for wave 1 & 2 increases are fast, decreases are very slow.
    Based on the data for waves 1 & 2, things tend to improve about as quickly as they deteriorated. Marginally slower, perhaps.

    It took 6 weeks to get from 300 to 7000 cases, then it should in principle take 6-8 weeks to get back to 300 cases again. It's as cases tend towards those lower numbers that we see it slow down and start to tail frustratingly. But the initial drops should be pretty quick.

    I wouldn't bet the house on it; there are many factors that influence changes in virus spread, but there's no good reason to believe that this time should be any different to the others.

    I understand absolutely why people are slow to commit themselves to any positivity. But all of the indicators are good. From positivity rates, to contact tracing, to GP referrals. A new surge in cases now would be logic defying.


  • #2097
    Goldengirl
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,986 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    Amirani wrote: »
    While our ICU situation across most hospitals is in poor shape, there absolutely is a Plan B, including at Beaumont.

    Yes.
    Beaumont have 2 ICUs , one general and one for neuro patients ie brain surgery , head injuries. Large high dependency area which can be used to ventilate, never mind theatres and recovery areas aplenty There is also an ICU in the RCSI building which can be used for overflow but would require staffing, nurses' , doctors , anaesthetists .
    So maybe that is an issue as this would be a lot of extra staff .


  • #2098
    Russman
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,978 ✭✭✭Russman


    seamus wrote: »
    Based on the data for waves 1 & 2, things tend to improve about as quickly as they deteriorated. Marginally slower, perhaps.

    It took 6 weeks to get from 300 to 7000 cases, then it should in principle take 6-8 weeks to get back to 300 cases again. It's as cases tend towards those lower numbers that we see it slow down and start to tail frustratingly. But the initial drops should be pretty quick.

    I wouldn't bet the house on it; there are many factors that influence changes in virus spread, but there's no good reason to believe that this time should be any different to the others.

    I understand absolutely why people are slow to commit themselves to any positivity. But all of the indicators are good. From positivity rates, to contact tracing, to GP referrals. A new surge in cases now would be logic defying.

    The question is, can we open up at 300 cases per day or is there a sweet spot that cases need to be below to avoid immediate exponential growth again ?


  • #2099
    leanin2019
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 168 ✭✭leanin2019


    Arghus wrote: »
    A good rule when thinking about Covid is good things happen very slowly, bad things happen very fast.

    Often the case with life in general :pac:


  • #2100
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Russman wrote: »
    The question is, can we open up at 300 cases per day or is there a sweet spot that cases need to be below to avoid immediate exponential growth again ?
    That should allow a Level 3ish as long as it's not just before a big holiday. With vaccinations moving on apace we should be OK.


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  • #2101
    Always_Running
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,839 ✭✭✭Always_Running


    goingnowhere wrote: »

    27,287 must be a daily record in swabs processed, not so long ago we struggled to handle 15k a day


    Yesterday 28609 tests the day before 28368. Approaching 85k tests in 72 hours is incredible amount. I still wonder what was the true case count in the spring as testing was low compared to now.


This discussion has been closed.
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