2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1

Timing belt · 05-01-2021 8:22pm

schmittel wrote: »

I tried to discredit you? You've managed that all by yourself.

No point in further discussion on it between you and I. I am sure there are plenty of other posters who are happy to discuss fundamentals that dont take the effects of COVID into account if it suits their narrative.

Its a report on housing needs for the next 20 years not just the next year or 2 so discounting Covid is rational unless you think it will still be around in 20 years.

It just shows how you are interpreting information to justify your opinion.

fliball123 · 05-01-2021 8:24pm

yagan wrote: »

Folks all that's in the future, we simply don't know the dynamics of the post covid world, we now in potentially the worst spike of it. It would certainly explain why few would want to open up their home for viewings!

March will be very interesting if sellers feel its safe to venture out again.

Exactly the same argument can be made for buyers they may feel it safe to venture out again in March as well

Demand could be more pent up than we thought

HotDudeLife · 05-01-2021 8:44pm

Cyrus wrote: »

Not only have you done the usual bear thing of putting your predictions out almost a year (so no one can say you were wrong at the end of the year) you added a little racism to it as well

Nice.

And if there is a ‘flight’ from those areas what happens to prices where these people land?

Just to clarify, did you actually infer racism from me simply making an observation that white people may leave areas where they are being attacked for being white (something that is quite common in the US/UK and is now ramping up in parts of Dublin).

See the irony in that?

Plenty of people are leaving these areas and given that a lot of them are closer to the Meath border, it wouldn't surprise me if many leave for commuter towns.

HotDudeLife · 05-01-2021 8:50pm

The assumption that because savings is a at a record high this will result in thousands of cash rich property buyers ready to unload on the market is really weak imo.

Many people with increased savings will likely already be property owners and also even if not, not everyone is planning on buying property. Realistically, if a couple was not in a position to buy this time last year, even if saving every penny their position to make an impact on the property market would be minimal right now, unless of course they were on > 200k combined, which is in the minority of workers and if that was the case they would likely already be property owners.

fliball123 · 05-01-2021 8:54pm

HotDudeLife wrote: »

The assumption that because savings is a at a record high this will result in thousands of cash rich property buyers ready to unload on the market is really weak imo.

Many people with increased savings will likely already be property owners and also even if not, not everyone is planning on buying property. Realistically, if a couple was not in a position to buy this time last year, even if saving every penny their position to make an impact on the property market would be minimal right now, unless of course they were on > 200k combined, which is in the minority of workers and if that was the case they would likely already be property owners.

Well the record number of mortgage approvals towards the end of the year would beg to differ with your opinion

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/mortgage-approvals-surged-in-october-to-record-level-1.4423808

combat14 · 05-01-2021 9:00pm

fliball123 wrote: »

Well the record number of mortgage approvals towards the end of the year would beg to differ with your opinion

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/mortgage-approvals-surged-in-october-to-record-level-1.4423808

record compared to what .. one month or quarter compared to last year or the whole year in its entirety!!!

fliball123 · 05-01-2021 9:01pm

combat14 wrote: »

record compared to what .. one month or quarter compared to last year or the whole year in its entirety!!!

Record months in October and November so October was the record month and then that was beaten by November so since the BPFI started recording mortgage drawdown its all detailed in the link I put up

hometruths · 05-01-2021 9:06pm

Timing belt wrote: »

Its a report on housing needs for the next 20 years not just the next year or 2 so discounting Covid is rational unless you think it will still be around in 20 years.

Not just the next year or two, i.e when the travel bans are lifted and we try and get back to to normal?

Just to remind you of the sequence of posts.

yagan wrote: »

You're very sure that immigration will continue at the same rate when travel bans eventually lift.

fliball123 wrote: »

I am yeah have you anything to counter this ?? I will set my stall and say that people will start coming back to Ireland as

schmittel wrote: »

The Dept of Housing and the ESRI do.

You responded:

Timing belt wrote: »

The report looks at a high emigration scenario and a low emigration scenario nowhere does it say that it expects low or high emigration

Nowhere is pretty definitive. I post a direct quote:

schmittel wrote: »

It is likely that travel restrictions, uncertainty about the evolution of the pandemic and lower confidence may result in migration being lower than in the baseline scenario at least in the short term. The low international migration scenario assumes that international migration falls from +33,700 in 2019 to +5,000 by 2022 and thereafter follows the Baseline scenario.

Quite clearly in that report they are explicity saying in the short term, i.e when travel bans are lifted as yagan posted, they expect international inflows to collapse, and thereafter follows the baseline scenario.

i.e the ESRI report confirms exactly what yagan posted - immigration will not continue at the same rate when travel bans are lifted. There is no other way to interpret what they are saying they think will happen when we travel bans are eventually lifted.

Timing belt wrote: »

It just shows how you are interpreting information to justify your opinion.

Really?! And this:

Timing belt wrote: »

As everyone has agreed on previous posts the housing market didn't suffer so it could be argued that the there is no recovery

I guess this is an example of your incisive wisdom and superior understanding of ESRI reports rather than some sort of clumsy spin to avoid simply saying, yep, my bad, I missed that bit?

Timing belt · 05-01-2021 9:33pm

schmittel wrote: »

Not just the next year or two, i.e when the travel bans are lifted and we try and get back to to normal?

Just to remind you of the sequence of posts.

You responded:

Nowhere is pretty definitive. I post a direct quote:

Quite clearly in that report they are explicity saying in the short term, i.e when travel bans are lifted as yagan posted, they expect international inflows to collapse, and thereafter follows the baseline scenario.

i.e the ESRI report confirms exactly what yagan posted - immigration will not continue at the same rate when travel bans are lifted. There is no other way to interpret what they are saying they think will happen when we travel bans are eventually lifted.

Really?! And this:

I guess this is an example of your incisive wisdom and superior understanding of ESRI reports rather than some sort of clumsy spin to avoid simply saying, yep, my bad, I missed that bit?

If I interpreted your post as the report was calling out that we would experience lower immigration for the future and not just for 2021/22 then yes "my bad" I got the wrong end of the stick but there is no clumsy Spin. The report is very clear that it is difficult to predict immigration and because of this it provides a range of scenarios.

Conclusions
This report provides estimates of structural housing demand at a local authority level out to 2040. These estimates are based on a new regional demographic model that explicitly incorporates the economic mechanisms that determine internal migration, and projections for headship rates. Given the dominant role that international migration plays in shaping the overall size, age structure and regional distribution of the population in Ireland, we examine a range of alternative scenarios for international migration. The assumptions underlying these scenarios draw heavily from recent trends and patterns in the data as well as findings on how certain key determinants of population change behave and react to the economic environment. Therefore, they implicitly assume that the types of relationships that were evident in the past will be maintained into the future. We also consider a scenario based on the 50:50 City Scenario from Morgenroth (2018) where population growth is more evenly distributed and less centred around Dublin and its surrounding area, and examine how relative regional economic conditions have to change to achieve these targets.

Marius34 · 05-01-2021 9:41pm

HotDudeLife wrote: »

The assumption that because savings is a at a record high this will result in thousands of cash rich property buyers ready to unload on the market is really weak imo.

Many people with increased savings will likely already be property owners and also even if not, not everyone is planning on buying property. Realistically, if a couple was not in a position to buy this time last year, even if saving every penny their position to make an impact on the property market would be minimal right now, unless of course they were on > 200k combined, which is in the minority of workers and if that was the case they would likely already be property owners.

It's 10Billion of additional savings in short time of period. Whether it's additional 10K Euro for 1 million people, or 100K Euro for 100.000 people, it's a large increase what ever way you look.
You can expect that not all planning to buy property, but even if it's 10% of those people, that makes a significant difference.

hometruths · 05-01-2021 9:42pm

Timing belt wrote: »

If I interpreted your post as the report was calling out that we would experience lower immigration for the future and not just for 2021/22 then yes "my bad" I got the wrong end of the stick but there is no clumsy Spin. The report is very clear that it is difficult to predict immigration and because of this it provides a range of scenarios.

Conclusions
This report provides estimates of structural housing demand at a local authority level out to 2040. These estimates are based on a new regional demographic model that explicitly incorporates the economic mechanisms that determine internal migration, and projections for headship rates. Given the dominant role that international migration plays in shaping the overall size, age structure and regional distribution of the population in Ireland, we examine a range of alternative scenarios for international migration. The assumptions underlying these scenarios draw heavily from recent trends and patterns in the data as well as findings on how certain key determinants of population change behave and react to the economic environment. Therefore, they implicitly assume that the types of relationships that were evident in the past will be maintained into the future. We also consider a scenario based on the 50:50 City Scenario from Morgenroth (2018) where population growth is more evenly distributed and less centred around Dublin and its surrounding area, and examine how relative regional economic conditions have to change to achieve these targets.

Yadda yadda yadda. Not exactly news to anybody and irrelevant to the posts I made. The report clearly says they think it is likely immigration will collapse and not continue at the same rate when travel bans eventually lift, as yagan posted and fleaball disputed, asking for anything to counter it, hence why I posted the link in the first place.

If you managed to get the wrong end of the stick from that exchange, it "just shows how you are interpreting information to justify your opinion"

fliball123 · 05-01-2021 9:56pm

schmittel wrote: »

Yadda yadda yadda. Not exactly news to anybody and irrelevant to the posts I made. The report clearly says they think it is likely immigration will collapse and not continue at the same rate when travel bans eventually lift, as yagan posted and fleaball disputed, asking for anything to counter it, hence why I posted the link in the first place.

If you managed to get the wrong end of the stick from that exchange, it "just shows how you are interpreting information to justify your opinion"

The same conditions and attractions that brought people into the country pre covid with the exception of Brexit being completed will be still be here after covid has gone away in this country. Why would people not start coming back in after covid is no longer an issue?

Timing belt · 05-01-2021 9:56pm

schmittel wrote: »

Yadda yadda yadda. Not exactly news to anybody and irrelevant to the posts I made. The report clearly says they think it is likely immigration will collapse and not continue at the same rate when travel bans eventually lift, as yagan posted and fleaball disputed, asking for anything to counter it, hence why I posted the link in the first place.

If you managed to get the wrong end of the stick from that exchange, it "just shows how you are interpreting information to justify your opinion"

Its not irrelevant as it looked like you were implying that immigration will low for the future something you previously said would happen and which fits in with your belief that there is adequate housing stock in Ireland and that new builds are not required..... Just look at all the vacant property!!!!!

fliball123 · 05-01-2021 9:59pm

schmittel wrote: »

Yadda yadda yadda. Not exactly news to anybody and irrelevant to the posts I made. The report clearly says they think it is likely immigration will collapse and not continue at the same rate when travel bans eventually lift, as yagan posted and fleaball disputed, asking for anything to counter it, hence why I posted the link in the first place.

If you managed to get the wrong end of the stick from that exchange, it "just shows how you are interpreting information to justify your opinion"

Pot of Kettle there how many times did you say property would drop last year?? Answers on a post card and now you have a crystal ball and are saying that immigartion will not return to previous levels prior to covid? Any chance of getting the Lotto numbers off you??

hometruths · 05-01-2021 9:59pm

fliball123 wrote: »

The same conditions and attractions that brought people into the country pre covid with the exception of Brexit being completed will be still be here after covid has gone away in this country. Why would people not start coming back in after covid is no longer an issue?

Of course people will come back at the same rate in time. But it will take time. In the short term one of the things that brought people into the country that might not still be here in the same numbers is jobs.

hometruths · 05-01-2021 10:01pm

fliball123 wrote: »

Pot of Kettle there how many times did you say property would drop last year?? Answers on a post card and now you have a crystal ball and are saying that immigartion will not return to previous levels prior to covid? Any chance of getting the Lotto numbers off you??

Not what I said. I said that the ESRI said:

It is likely that travel restrictions, uncertainty about the evolution of the pandemic and lower confidence may result in migration being lower than in the baseline scenario at least in the short term. The low international migration scenario assumes that international migration falls from +33,700 in 2019 to +5,000 by 2022 and thereafter follows the Baseline scenario.

No need for a crystal ball. Simple reading of their report. (In full.)

hometruths · 05-01-2021 10:06pm

Timing belt wrote: »

Its not irrelevant as it looked like you were implying that immigration will low for the future something you previously said would happen and which fits in with your belief that there is adequate housing stock in Ireland and that new builds are not required..... Just look at all the vacant property!!!!!

All that vacant property that the CSO say is vacant, yet you know better!

Saying that the vacant properties are not actually vacant, and that the CSO don't really have a handle on this, sounds rather like "interpreting information to justify your opinion".

fliball123 · 05-01-2021 10:07pm

schmittel wrote: »

Not what I said. I said that the ESRI said:

No need for a crystal ball. Simple reading of their report.

What has been pointed out is that the numbers seen during Covid cannot be used as a baseline what I said previously about the conditions and attractions that have record numbers emigrating into Ireland will be still here after Covid is gone. So the argument that your persisting with is going no where I think agree to disagree and wait and see what the numbers are after Covid is a memory

Timing belt · 05-01-2021 10:08pm

schmittel wrote: »

All that vacant property that the CSO say is vacant, yet you know better!

Saying that the vacant properties are not actually vacant, and that the CSO don't really have a handle on this, sounds rather like "interpreting information to justify your opinion".

I never said they were not vacant so do not put words in my mouth.

Hubertj · 05-01-2021 10:12pm

schmittel wrote: »

All that vacant property that the CSO say is vacant, yet you know better!

Saying that the vacant properties are not actually vacant, and that the CSO don't really have a handle on this, sounds rather like "interpreting information to justify your opinion".

Deja vu

hometruths · 05-01-2021 10:17pm

Timing belt wrote: »

I never said they were not vacant so do not put words in my mouth.

Sorry got the wrong end of the stick, my bad, seemed like you were implying you didn't believe the CSO figures based on your observations:

Timing belt wrote: »

If it was 10% that would be one in ten houses vacant. I only have to walk around to see that this is not the case.

6% is one in every 17 houses in Dublin yet again I don't see it when I walk down the road.

1.3% which is one in every 76 properties would seem more reasonable.

Plenty of people on here have said they don't believe the CSO figures on vacancies.

hometruths · 05-01-2021 10:19pm

fliball123 wrote: »

What has been pointed out is that the numbers seen during Covid cannot be used as a baseline what I said previously about the conditions and attractions that have record numbers emigrating into Ireland will be still here after Covid is gone. So the argument that your persisting with is going no where I think agree to disagree and wait and see what the numbers are after Covid is a memory

Again, I'm not arguing anything. I am simply stating the ESRI do not expect immigration to pick up where it left off as soon as Covid is sorted.

Timing belt · 05-01-2021 10:27pm

schmittel wrote: »

Sorry got the wrong end of the stick, my bad, seemed like you were implying you didn't believe the CSO figures based on your observations:

Plenty of people on here have said they don't believe the CSO figures on vacancies.

You have taken one Quote from a very long thread on Vacant properties to justify yourself. Your post backs up what I was saying about you being selective to justify your opinion.

If I remember correctly I spent a lot of time looking at the data and listening to your opinion on the matter to see if there was anything in what your were saying. Won't be wasting my time again listening to you as you will no doubt select one quote out of 100's to back up your opinion.. Just let it go....Agree to disagree and move on.

Browney7 · 05-01-2021 10:28pm

fliball123 wrote: »

Record months in October and November so October was the record month and then that was beaten by November so since the BPFI started recording mortgage drawdown its all detailed in the link I put up

And presumably May June and July 2020 were some of the lowest drawdown months since they've started recording and Oct and Nov were likely to have been elevated due to the release in pent up demand.

fliball123 · 05-01-2021 10:31pm

Browney7 wrote: »

And presumably May June and July 2020 were some of the lowest drawdown months since they've started recording and Oct and Nov were likely to have been elevated due to the release in pent up demand.

And ?? whats your point?? My point was that we have seen billions and billions saved in Irish bank accounts over the last year in particular and the previous poster who I was replying to retorted that little or none of these people would be trying to buy a property. So I simply pointed to the figures of mortgage approvals at the tail end of the year that would suggest otherwise..

Timing belt · 05-01-2021 10:34pm

Browney7 wrote: »

And presumably May June and July 2020 were some of the lowest drawdown months since they've started recording and Oct and Nov were likely to have been elevated due to the release in pent up demand.

We will need to see Decembers data to see if the total mortgages approved for the year is overall up or down but what it does show that in the middle of a crisis the mortgage draw downs didn't collapse and in the last 3 months have broken records for drawdowns

hometruths · 05-01-2021 10:43pm

Timing belt wrote: »

We will need to see Decembers data to see if the total mortgages approved for the year is overall up or down but what it does show that in the middle of a crisis the mortgage draw downs didn't collapse and in the last 3 months have broken records for drawdowns

Broken records? Where are you seeing this?

Timing belt · 05-01-2021 10:53pm

schmittel wrote: »

Broken records? Where are you seeing this?

October was the highest mortgage approvals for FTB since the records started being recorded in 2014.

November was the 2nd highest and September was the 4th highest.

More mortgages were approved in these 3 months than any other 3 month period.

Source:https://bpfi.ie/publications/bpfi-mortgage-approvals-report-november-2020/

Look at the data in the Data Series to get the spreadsheet that I shared.

Mic 1972 · 05-01-2021 10:55pm

The Daft report for Q4 sales is showing a significant increase in YOY prices.
Not only there was no price drop in 2020, prices went up a lot

https://ww1.daft.ie/report/2020-Q4-houseprice-daftreport.pdf?d_rd=1

hometruths · 05-01-2021 10:58pm

Timing belt wrote: »

October was the highest mortgage approvals for FTB since the records started being recorded in 2014.

November was the 2nd highest and September was the 4th highest.

More mortgages were approved in these 3 months than any other time.

Source:https://bpfi.ie/publications/bpfi-mortgage-approvals-report-november-2020/

Look at the data in the Data Series to get the spreadsheet that I shared.

Record approvals or drawdowns?

Timing belt wrote: »

We will need to see Decembers data to see if the total mortgages approved for the year is overall up or down but what it does show that in the middle of a crisis the mortgage draw downs didn't collapse and in the last 3 months have broken records for drawdowns

In the interests of making sure nobody is interpreting information to justify their opinion are you talking about approvals or drawdowns? There is a fairly significant difference.

Official figures published on Tuesday show that the value of mortgages drawn down in the third quarter of the year tumbled by 27 per cent to €1.96 billion from €2.64 billion during the same period in 2019.

Banking and Payments Federation of Ireland statistics show the total number of home loans drawn down during the three-month period was 8,220, a fall of 30.3 per cent on the 11,794 mortgages taken out through the third quarter of last year.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/mortgage-drawdowns-fall-by-almost-a-third-compared-to-2019-1.4391707

According to BPFI mortgage drawdowns collapsed by nearly 30% in the middle of a crisis.

2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

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2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1