TheSheriff wrote: » Did I read the news correct today, that private sites will be shut, but social sites will be kept going? Madness if so
Brussels Sprout wrote: » If the construction sites are shut again then that will restrict supply with obvious knock-on affects on prices.
Timing belt wrote: » Denmark banks are starting to offering 20 year fixed mortgage at 0%https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-05/danes-get-20-year-0-mortgages-as-interest-rates-keep-sinking?srnd=economics-vphttps://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/denmark-offers-homeowners-20-year-loans-at-a-fixed-interest-rate-of-zero-20210106-p56rzj.html
Marius34 wrote: » Don't know how this will affect Property Market, but it seem we going to have another Big Problem.Sampling finds UK variant in quarter of Irish caseshttps://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/covid-19-sampling-finds-uk-variant-in-quarter-of-irish-cases-1059965.html I might be very wrong, but we may end up being on Level 5 lockdown for many months.
Timing belt wrote: » With regards unemployment I wouldn't expect people to be looking to move home (unless to downgrade) if they thought there employment was at risk.
schmittel wrote: » I would say the bigger question is whether the credit worthy mortgage approval numbers on the pent up demand side are keeping pace with the would be seller numbers on the pent up supply side. i.e if this supply comes on stream a few months after we get back to normal, government wind down supports etc, will rising unemployment take out some of the approvals ability to drawdown. and how many individual approvals are being granted, many will be same person with AIP from two or three banks.
combat14 wrote: » Huge spike in house prices to hit buyers as average Dublin home goes for almost €400,000https://www.dublinlive.ie/news/huge-spike-house-prices-hit-19563339.amp
Timing belt wrote: » The big question is are they upgrading or downsizing or moving location.
schmittel wrote: » A lot due to all of the above I would guess!! The interesting thing about comparative supply is looking at the mover/purchaser drawdowns... Mover/purchasers are about 60% in volume of what they were Q2/Q3 2019. Trigger warning - I am going to make some assumptions here... Mover/purchasers represent significant supply of 2nd hand homes - i.e they are selling their existing properties. Mover/purchasers without mortgages represent bulk of balance of second hand home supply. They will also likely to be down approx 60% (likely more) Pattern likely to continue until well clear of lockdown, say Q3 2021 This is creating a backlog of pent up supply of people who ordinarily would have sold in this timeframe. These people will still want to sell when things get back to normal. The longer COVID goes on, more people will be considering selling than normal due to Covid lockdown experience - house too small, garden too small, WFH, etc etc etc. If the above assumptions hold vaguely true we are looking at releasing significant supply of second hand homes into the market - 40% of a years normal supply + COVID lockdown induced supply + normal sales supply in Q2/Q3 of this year. Just well all these mortgage approvals are in the pipeline!!
schmittel wrote: » When you drill into the data it shows that in terms of drawdowns Covid had zero impact on Q1 2020, which would be expected. So given the data we have the Covid impact can only be seen in Q2 and Q3. And the figure is down 30% in the same timescale. Would you really claim that the housing market didn't suffer due to Covid?
Hubertj wrote: » What about the comparative supply during the periods? How much of the 30% is down to they’re being nothing to draw down on? How much is due to consumer sentiment? How much is down to being refused drawdown? I’m surprised it was only 30% considering all that has and continues to happen.
Timing belt wrote: » It was meant to say approvals and a genuine mistake... Thank you for pointing this out. The Drawdown data is only available for the first 3 Qtrs of the year and can be found here.https://bpfi.ie/publications/bpfi-mortgage-drawdowns-report-q3-2020/ It shows that Drawdowns for house purchases for the first 9 months of the year is down to 78% of the value of loans drawn-down for the same period in 2019. When you drill into the data it shows that new Builds are 85% and secondhand is 75% value of the first 9 months of 2019.
Hubertj wrote: I fcuking hate the word “collapseâ€. Never liked it, I think it’s the sound.
schmittel wrote: » Record approvals or drawdowns? In the interests of making sure nobody is interpreting information to justify their opinion are you talking about approvals or drawdowns? There is a fairly significant difference.https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/mortgage-drawdowns-fall-by-almost-a-third-compared-to-2019-1.4391707 According to BPFI mortgage drawdowns collapsed by nearly 30% in the middle of a crisis.
schmittel wrote: » Record approvals or drawdowns?
Mic 1972 wrote: » The Daft report for Q4 sales is showing a significant increase in YOY prices. Not only there was no price drop in 2020, prices went up a lothttps://ww1.daft.ie/report/2020-Q4-houseprice-daftreport.pdf?d_rd=1
Timing belt wrote: » October was the highest mortgage approvals for FTB since the records started being recorded in 2014. November was the 2nd highest and September was the 4th highest. More mortgages were approved in these 3 months than any other time. Source:https://bpfi.ie/publications/bpfi-mortgage-approvals-report-november-2020/ Look at the data in the Data Series to get the spreadsheet that I shared.
Timing belt wrote: » We will need to see Decembers data to see if the total mortgages approved for the year is overall up or down but what it does show that in the middle of a crisis the mortgage draw downs didn't collapse and in the last 3 months have broken records for drawdowns
Official figures published on Tuesday show that the value of mortgages drawn down in the third quarter of the year tumbled by 27 per cent to €1.96 billion from €2.64 billion during the same period in 2019. Banking and Payments Federation of Ireland statistics show the total number of home loans drawn down during the three-month period was 8,220, a fall of 30.3 per cent on the 11,794 mortgages taken out through the third quarter of last year.
schmittel wrote: » Broken records? Where are you seeing this?
Browney7 wrote: » And presumably May June and July 2020 were some of the lowest drawdown months since they've started recording and Oct and Nov were likely to have been elevated due to the release in pent up demand.
fliball123 wrote: » Record months in October and November so October was the record month and then that was beaten by November so since the BPFI started recording mortgage drawdown its all detailed in the link I put up
