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2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*
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Empty_Space wrote: »There is a lot of terrible information in this forum. 2021 is the year that brings home a lot of harsh realities.
As soon as we put the corona virus behind us and governments turn off the life support propping up not just housing markets but entire economies, things are going to get ugly very quickly.
Ireland is fairly irrelevant in the whole thing. I keep hearing all this noise about supply, like it matters....
Ireland simply follows along with bigger economies. However, we are moving away from globalization and in the changing system I suspect Ireland wont do so well.
What do you think is going to happen when massively overvalued stocks are let fall and zombie companies can finally die. Don't stress your brains too much now.
That’s it then.0 -
it's hardly breaking news.
Just 8,000 houses built last year offered for sale on open market, says CIFThe federation, which represents most builders, says that the State acquired at least 4,400 new homes for social housing, while investment funds bought 95 per cent of the 3,644 apartments completed here last year.
...I wonder how these figures are included in some of the other stats added here...:rolleyes:0 -
Another severe recession, following the very bad 2020 recession?
Technically there was a deep global recession in 2020. It wasn't felt as bad as previous due to the government literally printing trillions just to keep it on life support, this can't last forever. Soon as the monetary painkiller wears off most sectors will tank.
Ask yourself, why do stocks go into meltdown at the sniff of a mere 0.25 interest rate rise?0 -
Empty_Space wrote: »There is a lot of terrible information in this forum. 2021 is the year that brings home a lot of harsh realities.
As soon as we put the corona virus behind us and governments turn off the life support propping up not just housing markets but entire economies, things are going to get ugly very quickly.
Ireland is fairly irrelevant in the whole thing. I keep hearing all this noise about supply, like it matters....
Ireland simply follows along with bigger economies. However, we are moving away from globalization and in the changing system I suspect Ireland wont do so well.
What do you think is going to happen when massively overvalued stocks are let fall and zombie companies can finally die. Don't stress your brains too much now.
Finally a voice of reason, there really is head in the sand stuff going on, completely ignoring the damage to the global economy and the fact that a huge % of businesses will go under once the government support is withdrawn.
Once people are comfortable to put their properties up on the market and coupled with the new builds this year we will see some supply increase.
It will be interesting to see if given the recent havoc in Balbriggan, Blanchardstown and Clonee if prices in these areas plummet due to "white flight" (for want of a better term), this happened in the US and was a huge impact to prices in a negative way.0 -
HotDudeLife wrote: »Finally a voice of reason, there really is head in the sand stuff going on, completely ignoring the damage to the global economy and the fact that a huge % of businesses will go under once the government support is withdrawn.
Once people are comfortable to put their properties up on the market and coupled with the new builds this year we will see some supply increase.
It will be interesting to see if given the recent havoc in Balbriggan, Blanchardstown and Clonee if prices in these areas plummet due to "white flight" (for want of a better term), this happened in the US and was a huge impact to prices in a negative way.
Head in the sand..I dont think so there is feck all supply, the ECB have put protective actions in place so that banks dont fall into the same issues as 08. Have you seen how much Irish bank accounts have accumalated alone this year in savings. We have just seen the end of a year where brexit and corona where the 2 main indicators to the doomsdaysers that property would tank..Roll on 2021 and Brexit has been agreed and a vaccine for corona found. So now the doomsdayers are going to blame a few scuffles in a few areas around north county Dublin .... Dude you need to take your own head out of the sand0 -
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HotDudeLife wrote: »Finally a voice of reason, there really is head in the sand stuff going on, completely ignoring the damage to the global economy and the fact that a huge % of businesses will go under once the government support is withdrawn.
Once people are comfortable to put their properties up on the market and coupled with the new builds this year we will see some supply increase.
It will be interesting to see if given the recent havoc in Balbriggan, Blanchardstown and Clonee if prices in these areas plummet due to "white flight" (for want of a better term), this happened in the US and was a huge impact to prices in a negative way.
I was considering Clonee but have completely disregarded it now following the events of the last week.0 -
HotDudeLife wrote: »Technically there was a deep global recession in 2020. It wasn't felt as bad as previous due to the government literally printing trillions just to keep it on life support, this can't last forever. Soon as the monetary painkiller wears off most sectors will tank.
Government's have been undertaking QE for the past 10 years (5years in Europe) this is not going to be switched off over night and will need at least 10 years to be phased out.
The real issue will start when governments roll over their debt because if the central bank is not buying at least half of it then there will be less demand which means the yield will rise and countries will have a higher debt servicing cost. Obviously if we see inflation then this mitigates against this issue.
The difference with this recession and the 08 is the governments/central banks acted in time as opposed to sitting back and letting the house of cards collapse like in 08.0 -
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Empty_Space wrote: »There is a lot of terrible information in this forum. 2021 is the year that brings home a lot of harsh realities.
As soon as we put the corona virus behind us and governments turn off the life support propping up not just housing markets but entire economies, things are going to get ugly very quickly.
Ireland is fairly irrelevant in the whole thing. I keep hearing all this noise about supply, like it matters....
Ireland simply follows along with bigger economies. However, we are moving away from globalization and in the changing system I suspect Ireland wont do so well.
What do you think is going to happen when massively overvalued stocks are let fall and zombie companies can finally die. Don't stress your brains too much now.
The government won't turn off life support overnight. They should gradually doing so, therefore leveling the effect.
At the start of the pandemic, I thought thingswwere going to go south. However, the fed and ecb were quick to provide liquidity to the market which is still happening now. I belive this will go on till Q2/Q3.0 -
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fliball123 wrote: »Head in the sand..I dont think so there is feck all supply, the ECB have put protective actions in place so that banks dont fall into the same issues as 08. Have you seen how much Irish bank accounts have accumalated alone this year in savings. We have just seen the end of a year where brexit and corona where the 2 main indicators to the doomsdaysers that property would tank..Roll on 2021 and Brexit has been agreed and a vaccine for corona found. So now the doomsdayers are going to blame a few scuffles in a few areas around north county Dublin .... Dude you need to take your own head out of the sand
Your main counter is "there is feck all supply", you do know we had less supply near the bottom of the market in 2012 right?
We are in the eye of the storm of a depression, market corrections are natural, this is inflated and will crash soon, by how much is anyone's guess. Once the governments withdraw PUP and business supports many jobs will go and thousands of mortgages will not be drawn down.
Whilst i do not think the property market will drop as much as last time and do actually think the new builds will not drop by much (due to government schemes), it's not out there to predict a 10-15% drop on 2nd hand property within the 300-400k range as most FTBs will be on government schemes to buy and therefore be competing for new builds.
" So now the doomsdayers are going to blame a few scuffles in a few areas around north county Dublin ". This comment alone tells me how naive and uninformed you are, ask one in these areas and you will hear horror stories over the years. The only reason you don't hear about it is due to the media suppressing it, sure just look at all the chaos all over social media, calls to kill a garda, white middle aged women assaulted, irish natives attacked due to the color of their skin. Not a peep in any of the media outlets.
It's only a matter of when the prices drop, if i had to put money on it i would predict around Sept/October 2021 we will see the real start of it and further drops going into 2022.0 -
I was considering Clonee but have completely disregarded it now following the events of the last week.
You're not alone, it was always a concern for those unaware or not from the area but this pretty much confirms what was local knowledge but never reported in the media.
Plenty saw the writing on the wall and cashed out at the top.0 -
Timing belt wrote: »Government's have been undertaking QE for the past 10 years (5years in Europe) this is not going to be switched off over night and will need at least 10 years to be phased out.
The real issue will start when governments roll over their debt because if the central bank is not buying at least half of it then there will be less demand which means the yield will rise and countries will have a higher debt servicing cost. Obviously if we see inflation then this mitigates against this issue.
The difference with this recession and the 08 is the governments/central banks acted in time as opposed to sitting back and letting the house of cards collapse like in 08.
Correct, however, much of that QE never made it to the average joes pockets. It was thrown into the stock market by the institutions.
This time, we have QE on steroids along with money that is keeping the average joe above water. When this is stripped away, businesses will crumble and plenty who intended to buy won't be able to draw down. Many industries are immune to this of course, however, the demographics of people in these industries likely already own property to begin with and the hysteria of increased savings will not imply to people with huge deposits ready to enter the property market, quite the contrary in fact.
In a way, we never really recovered from 08 and this is kicking the can down the road. The chickens will come home to roost very soon for many industries i fear.0 -
Savings are actually a liability for banks, performing loans are its assets.fliball123 wrote: »Head in the sand..I dont think so there is feck all supply, the ECB have put protective actions in place so that banks dont fall into the same issues as 08. Have you seen how much Irish bank accounts have accumalated alone this year in savings. We have just seen the end of a year where brexit and corona where the 2 main indicators to the doomsdaysers that property would tank..Roll on 2021 and Brexit has been agreed and a vaccine for corona found. So now the doomsdayers are going to blame a few scuffles in a few areas around north county Dublin .... Dude you need to take your own head out of the sand
Savings are such a problem for some Credit Unions that deposit caps have been set.
It takes fives years for an average development to go from site purchase, planning permission, construction to final sale. There'll be a constant supply of new developments hitting the market over the next two years and groups like Marlet were constituted so they could be collapsed quickly for when supply overtakes demand.
A awful lot of units were commissioned as rental yield stock for the international pension funds, so they'll close their checkbooks the minute over supply starts deflating rents.
Actually I've been ignoring rents, they really started sliding two years before house prices back during the sceptic tiger.0 -
HotDudeLife wrote: »You're not alone, it was always a concern for those unaware or not from the area but this pretty much confirms what was local knowledge but never reported in the media.
Plenty saw the writing on the wall and cashed out at the top.
Clonee, Tyrrelstown, some parts of Tallaght, balbrigan. Avoid..
A good advice I was given, buy in the areas where your neighbors share the same values as you. This can be open to any interpretation as you want.
Another thing when buying is visit the area atleast 3 times early in the morning and in the evening. Park your car and watch what's going on. Speak to the postmen or go to local post office or gardai station.
If you're buying in a mature neighborhood, there's a good probability your neighbors or area should be fine.0 -
HotDudeLife wrote: »Correct, however, much of that QE never made it to the average joes pockets. It was thrown into the stock market by the institutions.
It was used to help banks build up there balance sheets so that they could weather another storm.HotDudeLife wrote: »This time, we have QE on steroids along with money that is keeping the average joe above water. When this is stripped away, businesses will crumble and plenty who intended to buy won't be able to draw down. Many industries are immune to this of course, however, the demographics of people in these industries likely already own property to begin with and the hysteria of increased savings will not imply to people with huge deposits ready to enter the property market, quite the contrary in fact.
I would have thought that the demographics in the IT sector would be looking to buy property.
As for job losses yes there will be many but if you look at the hospitality sector for instance a lot of these jobs will come back.... Its not like pubs, restaurants, hotels are just going to close and all the jobs gone forever. Even if the company that owned them defaulted and sacked everyone a new company would open to provide a service as long as there is demand there.... And I don't see Irish people stopping going to the pub or eating out when this is all over.0 -
HotDudeLife wrote: »Your main counter is "there is feck all supply", you do know we had less supply near the bottom of the market in 2012 right?
We are in the eye of the storm of a depression, market corrections are natural, this is inflated and will crash soon, by how much is anyone's guess. Once the governments withdraw PUP and business supports many jobs will go and thousands of mortgages will not be drawn down.
Whilst i do not think the property market will drop as much as last time and do actually think the new builds will not drop by much (due to government schemes), it's not out there to predict a 10-15% drop on 2nd hand property within the 300-400k range as most FTBs will be on government schemes to buy and therefore be competing for new builds.
" So now the doomsdayers are going to blame a few scuffles in a few areas around north county Dublin ". This comment alone tells me how naive and uninformed you are, ask one in these areas and you will hear horror stories over the years. The only reason you don't hear about it is due to the media suppressing it, sure just look at all the chaos all over social media, calls to kill a garda, white middle aged women assaulted, irish natives attacked due to the color of their skin. Not a peep in any of the media outlets.
It's only a matter of when the prices drop, if i had to put money on it i would predict around Sept/October 2021 we will see the real start of it and further drops going into 2022.
so thats all you took out of it the supply issue and nothing about the amount of savings in the last year alone or the fact that the 2 biggest arguments for the domsdayers have been dealt with..Now who is putting their heads in the sand.
You also neglect to mention the dampening down effect the ECB lending rules have had on property prices if they were not there prices would be up a lot hight now.
I am not sure what the supply was like in 2012. What I do know is in 2012 the bog standard Ann and Barry looking to get on the market were not competing with 30k+ immigrants coming into Ireland a year ( well for the last 5 years with 2020 being an exception due to corona) along with a lot of global companies who invest in properties and see Ireland as a good ROI when renting and just to make the competition that bit worse we have the government snatching up a lot of property too.
As for supply now in 2012 we didnt have to deal with Covid for the construction industry for new builds. Also there has still to this day been very few properties repossessed from the fallout of 08. People have been allowed stay in their property without paying a mortgage for years..Further stiffing supply.
So regardless of what you think and I believe there are more indicators currently for prices going up. But as night follows day price is a product of supply and demand and if last year is anything to go by demand is high and supply is low and price stayed relatively normal last year and considering that last year we faced the worst global pandemic to hit the earth ever, add in the budget from this year and then consider the new Help to buy scheme where the government are giving 30% of property price for FTB. So I cant see prices dropping this year.
Your like a lot of people on here this time last year saying exactly the same thing. Well some went as crazy as saying a 50% drop0 -
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fliball123 wrote: »
Your like a lot of people on here this time last year saying exactly the same thing. Well some went as crazy as saying a 50% drop
You are in for a big surprise.
Yes, its taken longer then most people expect, but the only thing holding us up now is coronas. What a strange situation.0 -
Empty_Space wrote: »You are in for a big surprise.
Yes, its taken longer then most people expect, but the only thing holding us up now is coronas. What a strange situation.
Yeah heard it all this time last year and all the way through the year. Have you any facts to back up your forcast?0 -
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Ozark707 wrote:If there is a sizeable % of a new development that is purchased by Council and/or some fund then it puts a certain slant on the 'places flying off the market' narrative that seems to be out there.Cyrus wrote:any evidence to support this very bold claim?
I'll root it out, from memory less than a 1/3 of new builds we're made available for sale to the general public0 -
If at all! Whilst everybody agrees supply is currently tight, I don't think many spend any time considering why supply is tight, which is a fairly critical factor.
The stats I posted are from property sales so if a property was not sold it will not be included.
If you compare the no of apartments completed in 2019 3530 with the no of apartments sold that year 689 you are left with 2800 apartments that were never sold and probably went straight to rent.0 -
Timing belt wrote: »The stats I posted are from property sales so if a property was not sold it will not be included.
If you compare the no of apartments completed in 2019 3530 with the no of apartments sold that year 689 you are left with 2800 apartments that were never sold and probably went straight to rent.
Of course. And the majority of the properties sold were bought by non household buyers.
Yet there is a perception that the demands is predominantly FTB or buyers trading up to bigger property.
If these non household buyers stop buying and some of them start selling things will look very different very quickly.0 -
If it's not a one off build, the local authority's planning system can be really useful assuming applications are online. Either if the house has been extended it gives a good view of the layout, site etc., or if it hasn't been and neighbours have it's almost as useful.
Sometimes it also gives you an insight into frayed relationships based on the objections registered.
Thats great stuff thanks especially Amacca for writing all that, bookmarked.Here are some things I do if I'm genuinely interested in a property (not all and not necessarily in the below order)...tbh to make a purchase you need as much info as possible imo
Disclaimer : there may be other less onerous things you can do.
1) look carefully at the property site the property is advertised on and save a copy of all the detail.
2) look to see if the property is advertised on other sites including the aucioneer(s) own site to see if there are any discrepancies in asking price/listing date etc (occasionally this yields some interesting info)..save all this info too
3) Google the exact property address (or variants) if possible and see if it was listed before on other sites and if so for how many times and how long and what kind of price movements in the asking price there were (can be very illuminating sometimes)....also look up any ads for the property in local newspapers or national depending on the kind of property and see if other auctioneers had the property previously and didnt shift it
4) Take more than one drive by of the area and its surroundings and walk around to get a feel for the area if possbile....try to talk to locals casually about the area but take what they say with a grain of salt....you can get some fantastic info and also headbangers regardless of age so you have to try assess the person giving you the info
5) Googlemaps is actually quite useful for a plan view of site area/boundaries etc (not the legal ones obviously - just whats physically there)
6) The property price register can at times give you a good feel for what kind of property turnover is in the area in the recent past, if selling and asking prices are in line etc etc....although again Id take some selling prices with a pinch of salt, Im convinced one or two houses in an area I was looking at recently sold for more than is down on the register with money changing hands under the counter but in general it will give you a lot to go on.
7) The county development plan can give you an idea what way adjoining land has been classified, what sort of planning permissions are being given in the area and to whom (if you know how to read between the lines sometimes) ...again to a very limited extent but it can be interesting to see who applied for what and what was granted and give you an idea what might be built on soon how likely permission is to be given for certain types of development and what might remain undeveloped for the next 20years or more etc........again limited and things can change especially the way things are at the moment but when everything is chugging along at a relatively stable predictable rate it can be well worth your time to take a look.
8) you can request folios in the PRA/land registry in the fourcourts if you can pinpoint the property on a map (for a fiver now I think)....if there was something I was interested in the past I used to just walk in and point and ask for the details, maybe you can do that online now.....you can get details there of who owns it, and when it changed hands in the past legally without having to fork over hundreds to a solicitor....if im mildly interested in something and I might possibly maybe probably not buy it but definitely not interested enough to contact a solicitor this can give you the legal info of ownership etc
9) talk to auctioneer and request viewing/tour...listen carefully to everything he /she says and note it down as soon afterwards as you can so you have a reference more of a nose for anything that smells a bit fishy later on if indeed anything does
10) if you are serious your solicitor will also do searches as part of buying process but its good not to be green...dont depend on them to be as thorough as you would (their remit is only the legal stuff really but I always ask them regarding future developments just to see what they say etc (some can be quite clued in a give you that useful little nugget of info....a properly independant surveyer will also go through the house if there are structural issues etc you are worried about(and cost you more the more independant they are and then frighten the **** out of you with all the faults problems to justify their fee sometimes)...but tbh I usually run a mile if its structural, not worth the hassle in my book.
Of course all of the above can be short circuited if you live in the area and know the score or have access to trustworthy people that live in the area and will give you the info
and just to add, you are talking to an amateur here, Im sure there are better ways to do it.0 -
look what is trotted out just when the country is about to go into 2 months hibernation and car dealers are stating that car sales are at recession levels despite bumper savings this year..
House asking prices surge 6% as market shrugs off coronavirus impact
MyHome.ie report puts average asking price nationally at €284,000
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/house-asking-prices-surge-6-as-market-shrugs-off-coronavirus-impact-1.4449949?mode=amp
of course the famous october - mortgage lending had hit a “new cycle high” of €1.1 billion in October is heavily touted0 -
Of course. And the majority of the properties sold were bought by non household buyers.
Yet there is a perception that the demands is predominantly FTB or buyers trading up to bigger property.
If these non household buyers stop buying and some of them start selling things will look very different very quickly.
And if more people/Reits/companies see Irish rentals as a good investment with a solid ROI more properties may be bought for rent. People still have to live some where and before 2020 (which we can all agree is an anomaly due to corona) we had a fairly hefty net inward immigration into Ireland and our births have been out pacing deaths for the last 100 years. People still need to live somewhere.0 -
fliball123 wrote: »And if more people/Reits/companies see Irish rentals as a good investment with a solid ROI more properties may be bought for rent. People still have to live some where and before 2020 (which we can all agree is an anomaly due to corona) we had a fairly hefty net inward immigration into Ireland and our births have been out pacing deaths for the last 100 years. People still need to live somewhere.
It's a solid investment for institutional investors as it has a high yield with minimal risk.
I don't see institutional investors selling existing properties in a low interest rate environment as they will not be able to find a similar risk free asset with a better yield. If anything I think we will see a lot more of investments from institutional investors as they chase yield.
The Yield is unlikely to drop until the rental prices start to drop due to over supply of housing stock which is a good few years away assuming that immigration goes back to pre-covid levels.
The other thing to add is that this is not just a phenomenal in Ireland it is happening in most developed economies.
The following is an interesting paper on the impact of Institutional investors on affordability and vacancy rates.
https://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/more/2020-047
The only other thing to mention is that a fair chunk of the Non-household buyers are the government/housing associations etc which are unlikely to stop buying and start selling.0 -
Don't see them dropping for this year at least, however once situation stabilizes, drop is unavoidable.0
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HotDudeLife wrote: »
It's only a matter of when the prices drop, if i had to put money on it i would predict around Sept/October 2021 we will see the real start of it and further drops going into 2022.
Not only have you done the usual bear thing of putting your predictions out almost a year (so no one can say you were wrong at the end of the year) you added a little racism to it as well
Nice.
And if there is a ‘flight’ from those areas what happens to prices where these people land?0 -
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Maybe you didnt see the videos circulating of the aftermath of the shooting but I dont want to live in Clonee badly enough that I would risk it
I did, a few people gathered outside blanchardstown garda station, some more in the shopping centre, neither of which are in clonee.
There are more gangs causing hassle on Halloween every where in the country!
There's nothing to be frightened of.
On topic, I still think property will come down, it will take a few years however, the government have propped up the economy during the pandemic, so it will take a while to see the effects.
So this year they will probably stay around the same.0
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