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Covid 19 Part XXX-113,332 ROI(2,282 deaths) 81,251 NI (1,384 deaths) (05/01) Read OP

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Comments

  • #8912
    Ficheall
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,038 ✭✭✭Ficheall


    Sweet.Science wrote: »
    Im no expert but surely numbers should come down nearly as quick as they went up ?

    If we have 6k a day at the moment and people now adhere to the new lockdown measures we should see a sharp decline soon enough surely ?
    IF people adhere to the measures. Therein lies the rub.


  • #8913
    J Mysterio
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,192 ✭✭✭✭J Mysterio


    AndyBoBandy wrote: »
    I'm happy enough with both our covid practices in terms of wiping and sanitising etc... I'm more concerned about coming across a checkpoint and the reason not being valid enough, but what I'm seeing on social media is that there are not a whole lot of checkpoints around (similar to Oct/Nov lockdowns)

    I was stopped at a checkpoint in November but they just asked me 'have you far to go'? I wouldn't be particularly worried about that. Worst case, they turn you around.


  • #8914
    DOCARCH
    Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 18,960 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    iamwhoiam wrote: »
    Are you sure they said not a close conact or just not for a test.

    They said to my sister in law we were not considered close contacts, as she only became symptomatic around 3 days after Christmas Day, and they did not want our details.


  • #8915
    Pcgamer
    Closed Accounts Posts: 139 ✭✭Pcgamer


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    Actually no.

    on average it takes close to 5 14 days for the symptoms to show. Some do show sooner, some can show later.

    So the current figures are still based on the first 2 - 3 weeks of December with the last 1 -2 weeks starting to show towards the end of this week.

    You do realize its not just Xmas day people were socialising don't you? Basically the whole month of December


  • #8916
    CIARAN_BOYLE
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,599 ✭✭✭✭CIARAN_BOYLE


    Sweet.Science wrote: »
    Im no expert but surely numbers should come down nearly as quick as they went up ?

    If we have 6k a day at the moment and people now adhere to the new lockdown measures we should see a sharp decline soon enough surely ?

    In 6 weeks from october to november our postlockdown cases went to about 20% of our pre lockdown cases.

    If the same happened here we might go to 1000 cases a day in 6 weeks.


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  • #8917
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Deleted User wrote: »
    So please explain why the virus has exploded in 2 weeks from a point where we just exited lockdown?

    Compare this explosion to the previous numbers of where we exited lockdown, what has changed apart from us knowing that a new more contagious, and faster spreading strain is now evident?

    Because of people mixing.


  • #8918
    lawred2
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,757 ✭✭✭✭lawred2


    Ficheall wrote: »
    IF people adhere to the measures. Therein lies the rub.

    most people are

    you'd swear it was business as usual out there


  • #8919
    Icyseanfitz
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,534 ✭✭✭Icyseanfitz


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Again, only 10% of cases here have been identified as the new variant. Also, the impact to the transmission of the new variant has bee revised down - why - because initially they were attributing all of the surge in the UK to the new variant, while in fact much of it was driven by the new variant and increased mixing

    We can 100% stand over that 10% calculation as we know our track, trace and testing systems are all world leading........ :pac:


  • #8920
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    ednwireland wrote: »
    one of the few statements that made sense from NPHET before xmas was ( i think it was from philip nolan) "we dont need a new strain for the numbers to rocket"

    I can understand that logic based on house parties and Christmas meetups, but the current explosion stems from the first 2 weeks of December. The meetups and parties will start showing this week.

    So how can the figures for the first 2 weeks of December be higher than the first 2 weeks of coming out of our last lockdown?


  • #8921
    caveat emptor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    stephenjmcd wrote: »
    Never stopped as far as I'm aware, Aerlingus statement below only the other day. The flights going out are coming back empty as far as I'm aware and you can't book any inbound flights through Aerlingus or Ryanair until the 7th at the moment.

    ......

    Thanks Stephen I thought the same. Whatever about aerlingus with Ryanair you can book them though.

    edit: So in two days time if the variant isn't dominating it will soon start to just as it is in the UK. Don't get me wrong. Christmas and Pubs open in December was stupid in the extreme especially if it means schools can't open for an extended period. Not to mention hospital care being curtailed to manage the influx we now see. (which is happening on Wednesday)

    https://twitter.com/patphelan/status/1346396424938934273?s=20


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  • #8922
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Pcgamer wrote: »
    You do realize its not just Xmas day people were socialising don't you? Basically the whole month of December

    Christmas day figures are only going to start showing this week.


  • #8923
    LolaT
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1 ✭LolaT


    I don't understand why people in receipt of Jobseeker's are still queuing every Monday at their local post offices and not receiving their benefit into their bank accounts?! A few people I know are in receipt of it and were telling me how the queues are long - some of these post offices would be tiny and contained within local shops. To my mind this is an unnecessary gathering of people on a weekly basis


  • #8924
    lawred2
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,757 ✭✭✭✭lawred2


    LolaT wrote: »
    I don't understand why people in receipt of Jobseeker's are still queuing every Monday at their local post offices and not receiving their benefit into their bank accounts?! A few people I know are in receipt of it and were telling me how the queues are long - some of these post offices would be tiny and contained within local shops. To my mind this is an unnecessary gathering of people on a weekly basis

    isn't that up to the recipient?


  • #8925
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Because of people mixing.

    Did people not mix when we left the last lockdown?

    Christmas week figures are only starting to come through now, the explosion figures are based on the first 2 weeks of December.


  • #8926
    Away With The Fairies
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 4,077 ✭✭✭Away With The Fairies


    DOCARCH wrote: »
    They said to my sister in law we were not considered close contacts, as she only became symptomatic around 3 days after Christmas Day, and they did not want our details.

    Where did this being contagious 48 hours before showing symptoms come from?

    It seems to me it's 3 days, could be longer for all I know. Any people out and about being positive because they don't fall within the 48 hour window.


  • #8927
    accensi0n
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,980 ✭✭✭accensi0n


    Cluedo Monopoly wrote: »
    What!!?? I swear some people are just looking for outrage. Why did you delete half my post?

    Ok let me spell it out for you very simply.

    I have occasionally seen people in shops not wearing masks. I have highlighted it. They apologise and put on their masks immediately or go out and get their masks. They are often mortified when they realised. People forget. It's human. Does that clarify it enough for you?

    I've forgotten to put it on myself one time when in the shop. No doubt anyone that saw thought what the f*ck is he playing at.
    Realised it myself and was hit with a wave of guilt/embarrassment.


  • #8928
    stephenjmcd
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,450 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    caveat emptor wrote: »
    Thanks Stephen I thought the same. Whatever about aerlingus with Ryanair you can book them though.

    https://twitter.com/patphelan/status/1346396424938934273?s=20

    Yes for the 7th, no travel ban in place for then as it stands, however.... I wouldn't bet on those flights leaving with passengers

    https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1346403891181662208?s=19


  • #8929
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    When will you begin to see symptoms?

    On average it takes 5–6 days from when someone is infected with the virus for symptoms to show, however it can take up to 14 days.

    https://www.who.int/health-topics/coronavirus#tab=tab_3

    So this means,

    If you were infected Christmas day the infection figures should start to show from around 3rd January at the earliest, or 8th Jan latest.


  • #8930
    iamwhoiam
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,249 ✭✭✭✭iamwhoiam


    DOCARCH wrote: »
    They said to my sister in law we were not considered close contacts, as she only became symptomatic around 3 days after Christmas Day, and they did not want our details.

    That is mad , I was close to a case on Tuesday and she showed symptoms on Friday and we were asked to isolate as close contacts


  • #8931
    ixoy
    Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 18,045 Mod ✭✭✭✭ixoy


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Christmas week figures are only starting to come through now, the explosion figures are based on the first 2 weeks of December.
    No, they've been coming through already. The mean time is 5-6 days so a good number are already present. GPs are getting swamped with people reporting symptoms after Christmas dinners / meet ups.


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  • #8932
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    caveat emptor wrote: »
    If the new strain isn't a problem now, it won't take long for it to be a problem.

    https://twitter.com/patphelan/status/1346380069284048897?s=20

    Maybe question the source? There were flights from the UK yesterday, and Sunday, and Saturday


  • #8933
    lawred2
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,757 ✭✭✭✭lawred2


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Maybe question the source? There were flights from the UK yesterday, and Sunday, and Saturday

    they are flying Irish people home I thought?


  • #8934
    Gruffalux
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,023 ✭✭✭Gruffalux


    Sweet.Science wrote: »
    Im no expert but surely numbers should come down nearly as quick as they went up ?

    If we have 6k a day at the moment and people now adhere to the new lockdown measures we should see a sharp decline soon enough surely ?

    Numbers will come down as the criteria for a test is significantly tighter.
    That will not result in less virus in the community. It is just a way to cook the books.
    And not very sweetly science-y.


  • #8935
    caveat emptor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Maybe question the source? There were flights from the UK yesterday, and Sunday, and Saturday

    The fact is
    • you can book flights from the 7th from the UK.
    • the strain is dominant there
    • NI never stopped flights
    • if it is becoming the dominant strain there
    • It will de the dominant one here 100%.


  • #8936
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Actually no.

    on average it takes close to 5 14 days for the symptoms to show. Some do show sooner, some can show later.

    So the current figures are still based on the first 2 - 3 weeks of December with the last 1 -2 weeks starting to show towards the end of this week.

    Wrong. Up to 14 days does not mean 14 days, its means thats the tail of the distribution. The Median time is 5 days


  • #8937
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Maybe question the source? There were flights from the UK yesterday, and Sunday, and Saturday

    Flight due in this afternoon from London and flights from all over the world due.

    https://www.dublinairport.com/flight-information/live-arrivals


  • #8938
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Wrong. Up to 14 days does not mean 14 days, its means thats the tail of the distribution. The Median time is 5 days

    Damn, you better head over to the WHO and let them know they are wrong.

    On average it takes 5–6 days from when someone is infected with the virus for symptoms to show, however it can take up to 14 days.

    https://www.who.int/health-topics/coronavirus#tab=tab_3


  • #8939
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    seamus wrote: »
    Lads, you can't reason someone out of a position they didn't reason themselves into. If someone is clearly immune to facts, stick them on ignore and save your energy.

    Is there natural immunity to reason and facts or is it exposure to some memetic pathogen?


  • #8940
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    ixoy wrote: »
    No, they've been coming through already. The mean time is 5-6 days so a good number are already present. GPs are getting swamped with people reporting symptoms after Christmas dinners / meet ups.

    From the 3rd onwards for Christmas day.


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  • #8941
    lawred2
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,757 ✭✭✭✭lawred2


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Damn, you better head over to the WHO and let them know they are wrong.

    On average it takes 5–6 days from when someone is infected with the virus for symptoms to show, however it can take up to 14 days.

    https://www.who.int/health-topics/coronavirus#tab=tab_3

    urm

    I'm not sure you understand statistical distribution..

    Nothing in what was said contradicts the WHO... the average is 5 - 6 days... 14 days would be outliers


This discussion has been closed.
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