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Covid 19 Part XXX-113,332 ROI(2,282 deaths) 81,251 NI (1,384 deaths) (05/01) Read OP

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Comments

  • #6512
    Solar2021
    Closed Accounts Posts: 128 ✭✭Solar2021


    Crocodile Booze wrote: »
    62 in ICU

    Not unrealistic to expect over 100 soon

    Infection to ICU is usually 2-3 weeks


  • #6513
    Ger Roe
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,193 ✭✭✭Ger Roe


    mcburns07 wrote: »
    This is it in a nutshell really. Forget about the cohort who completely ignore restrictions, they’re a minority. The actual problem is a large portion of the population seem to think the things permitted at each level of the restrictions are some sort of target to hit. We probably wouldn’t need levels at all if people took personal responsibility.

    But knowing that is the way people react, we need to change the message. Start off with lowering the targets that we know they will work up to anyway.

    We keep doing and saying the same things and appealing for different results.

    Where are the behavioural analysis experts that we saw all over the tv in the early days... have they nothing to say about how to communicate policy, now that they have had several chances to observe public behaviour and reaction patterns?

    Just putting the podium up on the steps and have whatever taoiseach walk solemly towards it, every few weeks, is no longer getting the point across.


  • #6514
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,780 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Christmas Day infections will show in swab data next 3 or 4 days?

    Could we expect a swab peak day of around 7 January?


  • #6515
    jackboy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,020 ✭✭✭jackboy


    Ger Roe wrote: »
    But knowing that is the way people react, we need to change the message. Start off with lowering the targets that we know they will work up to anyway.

    We keep doing and saying the same things and appealing for different results.

    Where are the behavioural analysis experts that we saw all over the tv in the early days... have they nothing to say about how to communicate policy, now that they have had several chances to observe public behaviour and reaction patterns?

    Just putting the podium up on the steps and have whatever taoiseach walk solemly towards it, every few weeks, is no longer getting the point across.
    The point is across. There are many who won’t follow restrictions because they don’t care. The message is not relevant. Enforcement is the issue.


  • #6516
    Ger Roe
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,193 ✭✭✭Ger Roe


    Drumpot wrote: »
    That’s not true at all. I know somebody who got it and their wife and child didn’t get infected.

    You don’t have to have an awesome ventilation system , opening windows and airing out rooms regularly can help. It’s all about degrees of improvement. Opening a window for 30 minutes to air out a room is better then doing nothing.

    There’s lots of other practical advice in the video. Getting the virus with somebody in your household is not inevitable, if people act like it is, it’s more likely to happen

    i prefer to accept that it is almost impossible to control within my four walls, so I am doing all I can to stop it getting in.

    I think that's a better approach under our particular physical circumstances. It's the old security alarm principle... protect your perimiter.


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  • #6517
    Stheno
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,690 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    Sleety_Rain wrote: »
    Christmas Day infections will show in swab data next 3 or 4 days?

    Could we expect a swab peak day of around 7 January?

    I think the next five days will be the worst of it so yes


  • #6518
    mcburns07
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,393 ✭✭✭mcburns07


    Ger Roe wrote: »
    But knowing that is the way people react, we need to change the message. Start off with lowering the targets that we know they will work up to anyway.

    We keep doing and saying the same things and appealing for different results.

    Where are the behavioural analysis experts that we saw all over the tv in the early days... have they nothing to say about how to communicate policy, now that they have had several chances to observe public behaviour and reaction patterns?

    Just putting the podium up on the steps and have whatever taoiseach walk solemly towards it, every few weeks, is no longer getting the point across.

    That ship has sailed at this stage I guess. The numbers right now are probably going to be enough to focus most people’s minds. I can definitely see a major attitude shift in my own family and friends the past week and I would say they’ve all been very compliant throughout. Self preservation will always trump any messaging. Hopefully we can get past this surge over the next few weeks and see some light at the end of the tunnel.


  • #6519
    William Faithful Deer
    Posts: 0 ✭ William Faithful Deer


    Sleety_Rain wrote: »
    Christmas Day infections will show in swab data next 3 or 4 days?

    Could we expect a swab peak day of around 7 January?

    Don't think so as right up until NYE needs to come into the mix so that's around 14/15 January. Lots of people were still at home around the country and will be only returning to primary residences today.

    Maybe I'm misunderstanding the data when the backlog is factored in.


  • #6520
    Happy4all
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,089 ✭✭✭Happy4all


    ElJeffe wrote: »
    Construction needs to be shut down today so we don't have thousands of Northerners coming down tomorrow to sites all across the country. Either that or turn them around on the main roads on the border. We need to get real here this is an emergency

    Nearly every local government contracts are awarded to UK building companies, which I always find strange. They need to be accountable now and close such projects, which involve movement of personnel from outside this jurisdiction until the virus is under control.


  • #6521
    ZX7R
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,393 ✭✭✭ZX7R


    WicklaBlaa wrote: »
    There are literally no studies that show wearing a mask outside limits the spread of Covid.

    But who needs evidence in a pandemic?
    When people are terrified enough, they'll agree to anything.

    15 posts and you think people are terrified in Poland of covid that's funny, to be honest the majority don't really they respect the fact covid is here.
    But they definitely do care about paying the on the spot mandatory fine for not wearing them.


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  • #6522
    Drumpot
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,306 ✭✭✭✭Drumpot


    Kallie Future Marinade wrote: »
    Don't think so as right up until NYE needs to come into the mix so that's around 14/15 January. Lots of people were still at home around the country and will be only returning to primary residences today.

    I was thinking that Max spread maybe by st Stephen’s day. Then 5-7 days of potentially no symptoms, New Year’s Eve (for some) , some families/friends still meeting up (even outside) and even people out shopping and accidentally spreading it (unbeknownst). This is not judging, a lot of people prob have it and don’t even know it.

    With the contact tracing system useless and basically us not having a clue how many are infected there is a chance that a massive amount of people being infected and still going shopping or conversing at home without a clue, will sort of super spread (by virtue of amount of people infected) it for a week or two. If you don’t know you have it you may take small risks (not unreasonable) that you wouldn’t take if you knew you were infected.

    So I wouldn’t be surprised if things get progressively worse until at least mid Jan, maybe longer.


  • #6523
    Drumpot
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,306 ✭✭✭✭Drumpot


    Ger Roe wrote: »
    i prefer to accept that it is almost impossible to control within my four walls, so I am doing all I can to stop it getting in.

    I think that's a better approach under our particular physical circumstances. It's the old security alarm principle... protect your perimiter.

    It’s not necessarily about controlling within 4 walls, it’s taking steps to mitigate the potential for damage. Ventilation isn’t the only tip.

    The Video was what to do if it gets into your house, I’m sure some people will appreciate practical advice if it gets in and how to possibly reduce the severity. Some of the advice is relevant to those who just want to be proactive and protect themselves from possibly getting a worse dose.


  • #6524
    wadacrack
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,172 ✭✭✭wadacrack


    Ger Roe wrote: »
    There is no point in me watching anything like that. I suspect like most people, our standard 1980's built irish house is absolutely unsuitable for effective individual isolation.

    If one of us get's it... we all get it, no question. I would like to have additional bathrooms and enough rooms for individual isolation, but I don't, and it is probably that reality above all, that influences our family behaviour in the outside world.

    I know of people who have contracted the virus and it has not lead to more cases in their household. Follow the advice by medical professionals rather than a personal belief


  • #6525
    kenmc
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,283 ✭✭✭kenmc


    jackboy wrote: »
    Don’t worry, I’m sure Eamon will outline the peer reviewed scientific data he is using for this suggestion. He definitely didn’t pull it out of his behind.
    Probably double-checked with shane ross


  • #6526
    Just Saying
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 306 ✭✭Just Saying


    Stheno wrote: »
    I think the next five days will be the worst of it so yes

    Its hard to predict the peak of the swab numbers I think.

    The change in test criteria will mean that a lot of asymptomatic cases which were showing up in close contacts up to Dec 30th will not now translate into positive swabs.

    Obviously the positivity ratio will continue to creep up but without knowing the percentage of asymptomatic cases in the positive swabs prior to the change in criteria its really difficult to predict the trejectory.


  • #6527
    seamus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,190 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    Sleety_Rain wrote: »
    Christmas Day infections will show in swab data next 3 or 4 days?

    Could we expect a swab peak day of around 7 January?
    There might be a bit of a tail; people meeting up on the 26th/27th as well. Don't be alarmed if we're still seeing swabs increase to next weekend.


  • #6528
    fits
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,044 ✭✭✭✭fits


    Solar2021 wrote: »
    Might as well at this stage with them being outside EU

    We have a population of 5,000,000 and we are supposedly at breaking point with 500 in hospital

    ng


    Simple question for you. If there were 250 in hospital last week and 500 now what will it be in a weeks time? And the week after?


    It’s actually closer to 700 in hospital by the way.


  • #6529
    Pinch Flat
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,780 ✭✭✭Pinch Flat


    fits wrote: »
    Simple question for you. If there were 250 in hospital last week and 500 now what will it be in a weeks time? And the week after?


    It’s actually closer to 700 in hospital by the way.

    People that roll out 5,000,000 and 500 in hospital - I wonder genuinely have they any idea of our hospital capacity? We've one of the weakest health systems in the EU. Opoor comminity care. Almoat non rxistant promary care. People obviously think we have way more many beds than we actually have.


  • #6530
    Rustyman101
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 394 ✭✭Rustyman101


    Will be interesting when all the factorys return tomorrow!


  • #6531
    xhomelezz
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,913 ✭✭✭xhomelezz


    Pinch Flat wrote: »
    People that roll out 5,000,000 and 500 in hospital - I wonder genuinely have they any idea of our hospital capacity? We've one of the weakest health systems in the EU. Opoor comminity care. Almoat non rxistant promary care. People obviously think we have way more many beds than we actually have.

    But we have shītload of trolleys..


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  • #6532
    TonyMaloney
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,150 ✭✭✭TonyMaloney


    So to date 6.71% of all cases have been hospitalised (according to HPSC epidemiology reports).
    In recent months it's usually been between 3 to 5 percent though, so for the purposes of this I'm going to run with 4%.

    On the 1st of January we had 5,585 positive swabs which would equate to about 5,000 cases.
    4% of 5,000 is 200 hospitalised people. I think that's what we'll be seeing soon enough on a daily basis.
    And we still haven't peaked. If we get to 8,000 cases a day, which is entirely possible, we'll see a corresponding day of about 320 people being hospitalised some time later.

    If the age age profile of detected cases goes up dramatically, say because of something like Christmas day, then things will get quite a bit worse.


  • #6533
    the corpo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,811 ✭✭✭the corpo


    Plumbthedepths wrote: »
    The blame is on those who met up with others. The government didn’t lay on buses beinging people to other people’s houses . It still comes down to personal responsibility. Just because you can do something doesn’t mean you should.


    With any branding/messaging/advertising people absorb the headline, not the details. So if Government said up to 3 households could meet, then people just primarily register that they've been told it's ok for up to 3 people to meet. The sub headline gets picked up by less people.

    And with such a chequered past with messaging and confusion over levels etc., the leading statement should have been it is safer not to meet up, but if you must, then up to three etc.

    Yes, people should have known better, but they should have been told better.


  • #6534
    Drumpot
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,306 ✭✭✭✭Drumpot


    TonyMaloney wrote: »
    So to date 6.71% of all cases have been hospitalised (according to HPSC epidemiology reports).
    In recent months it's usually been between 3 to 5 percent though, so for the purposes of this I'm going to run with 4%.

    On the 1st of January we had 5,585 positive swabs which would equate to about 5,000 cases.
    4% of 5,000 is 200 hospitalised people. I think that's what we'll be seeing soon enough on a daily basis.
    And we still haven't peaked. If we get to 8,000 cases a day, which is entirely possible, we'll see a corresponding day of about 320 people being hospitalised some time later.

    If the age age profile of detected cases goes up dramatically, say because of something like Christmas day, then things will get quite a bit worse.

    What is the average stay in hospital once a person with COVID is bad enough to go in?


  • #6535
    political analyst
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,893 ✭✭✭political analyst


    Why isn't the government ordering those businesses that are allowed to remain open to ensure that face-coverings are not just worn but worn properly, i.e. covering the nose as well as the mouth?! Not wearing them properly must be at least one reason for the increase in the number of Covid cases.


  • #6536
    Stheno
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,690 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    Drumpot wrote: »
    What is the average stay in hospital once a person with COVID is bad enough to go in?

    12 days iirc


  • #6537
    Fakediamond
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,055 ✭✭✭Fakediamond


    Solar2021 wrote: »
    Yes

    We should have went the New Zealand route in March, becoming so clear now

    Bordered up the north, stop travel. We are an Island it could have been done

    Western countries have been shown up as fools by the East

    Chinese must be laughing their asses off at us right now

    We are a pack of thickos
    Professor McConkey wanted this from day one and still does. I remember he was viewed as being extreme and a bit of a loose cannon by the other experts at the time, including deGascun. He would be justified in feeling smug now, but also massively frustrated. As the old saying goes, doctors differ and patients die.


  • #6538
    Drumpot
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,306 ✭✭✭✭Drumpot


    Stheno wrote: »
    12 days iirc

    If you plotted a graph of net daily increase hospitalisations , added 12 days to each daily figure I wonder at what stage we hit critical mass.


  • #6539
    ElJeffe
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 725 ✭✭✭ElJeffe


    Plumbthedepths wrote: »
    The blame is on those who met up with others. The government didn’t lay on buses beinging people to other people’s houses . It still comes down to personal responsibility. Just because you can do something doesn’t mean you should.

    This is it in a nutshell people and what I've been trying to say for weeks now.


  • #6540
    Fakediamond
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,055 ✭✭✭Fakediamond


    Drumpot wrote: »
    What is the average stay in hospital once a person with COVID is bad enough to go in?

    It depends...if they’re on ventilator it could be weeks or months.


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  • #6541
    ZX7R
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,393 ✭✭✭ZX7R


    political analyst wrote: »
    Why isn't the government ordering those businesses that are allowed to remain open to ensure that face-coverings are not just worn but worn properly, i.e. covering the nose as well as the mouth?! Not wearing them properly must be at least one reason for the increase in the number of Covid cases.

    Simply there is no legal grounds for employers or staff to enforce it.
    And there won't be it would create a legal minefield.


This discussion has been closed.
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