FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Gonzo wrote: »

GFS fully rolled out, increasing support for milder weather towards the middle of the month, looks chilly up to the 10th of January and a milder trend after that. A few bitterly cold runs too but they are very much outliers.

Well into FI that to be fair. U.K. met office outlook has it remaining cold and wintry. Of course it could be right the GFS but still a long way to run until then.

Runs have been good to very good again today. Blocking pattern is still on offer and the pivot point seems to be around 7th/8th January right now when we either get a Greenland high or a Greenland ridge depending on how much amplification there is supported by warm air advection. As a result, this will be crucial to get details on before going any further forward.

Last night's GFS 18z was best case scenario and very unlikely, it is more what I'd expect following a major SSW and not before it. It was somewhat unrealistic with how quickly that bitterly cold air came flooding south but not one to totally rule out as stranger things have happened. I did find it quite funny how the run still managed to end mild with heights rising suddenly over central Europe which I can tell you is flat out ridiculous with such a blocked pattern, even with a western based -NAO which is decreasing in likelihood.

If you're looking for beasterly easterlies or polar lows coming down from the north next week, then sorry but you will highly likely be disappointed. Have to build up the pattern before getting to that! Patience.

This blocked pattern will not be going away anytime soon, the high latitude blocking might compete with 2010 intensity and longevity. Yes, there I said it. Doesn't mean the same effects will be felt in western Europe but... :cool:

The lack of cold to the East is frustrating when you see such charts but the end of ECM wants to bring the REAL cold down from the North. Interesting couple of weeks ahead and we might get a few bites of the cherry yet.

Gonzo wrote: »

GFS fully rolled out, increasing support for milder weather towards the middle of the month, looks chilly up to the 10th of January and a milder trend after that. A few bitterly cold runs too but they are very much outliers.

This could be the GFS doing what it has always done in the past. However, there is also the nasty possibility that a SSW actually ends up flipping the pattern to something milder, but hopefully any milder period would be temporary before a reload courtesy of the SSW. We are very much still in the game for something noteworthy to happen. Indeed our good old friend mr polar low could pay us a visit sometime after the first week of January, if that extreme cold bottled up in the north manages to seep south over us. The latter stages of ECM tease such a possibility.

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Now this is a bit more interesting with some sub -8 850's knocking around

frustrating for me since I live close to the sea, hopefully we get another slight upgrade but that's probably asking for too much! looking good for those further inland if the GFS is to be believed, we need the ECM on board ASAP!

sryanbruen wrote: »

Last night's GFS 18z was best case scenario and very unlikely, it is more what I'd expect following a major SSW and not before it. It was somewhat unrealistic with how quickly that bitterly cold air came flooding south but not one to totally rule out as stranger things have happened. I did find it quite funny how the run still managed to end mild with heights rising suddenly over central Europe which I can tell you is flat out ridiculous with such a blocked pattern, even with a western based -NAO which is decreasing in likelihood.

If you're looking for beasterly easterlies or polar lows coming down from the north next week, then sorry but you will highly likely be disappointed. Have to build up the pattern before getting to that! Patience.

LOL! Then 18z comes in:



Lost for words. My points mentioned in prior post stand.

EDIT: Indeed munsterlegend, don't be surprised to see a much less impressive GFS 0z

Absolutely stunning 18z for sure, it will of course chop and change but interesting January as predicted. I remember looking at the analogue in November for this winter which hinted a cold and snowy period around the 2nd week of January.

Cork2021 wrote: »

Any pics of the 18z?

Kermit explain the 500 bar line meaning temp wise please..

Supercell wrote: »

Must.Remain.Calm.

Right for us dummies what does this mean?

gerrybhoy wrote: »

Right for us dummies what does this mean?

See that line down the east coast of the UK..its means hope.
Isle of Man shadow, streamers...Kermit.de.Frog opening a new topic...

Maybe.

Supercell it could be your honour to open a new thread.

Humberto Salazar wrote: »

Although this is a good chart for coldies, patience is needed because we need colder air to slip westwards to eastern Europe. It's not that cold a flow presently. But it could certainly evolve into one. That's what we're watching.

Yes,its no 'beast from the east' but a good chart all the same and something to work from going forward.....

icesnowfrost wrote: »

Some of the models are showing a milder finish to the end of the runs but then there’s always a few that say no not yet still cold for now. The latest run is proof of that.

If that is the GFS you are refering to, it could be a temporary milder interlude before another reload. Also, if there chart for the 13th of January could be banked some parts of Ireland could get a serious snow fall before any change.
In any case if some of the chart depictions are realised some people could see a decent amount of snow before them.