COVID-19: Vaccine and testing procedures Megathread Part 2 [Mod Warning - Post #1]

ACitizenErased · 22-12-2020 3:18pm

Gael23 wrote: »

Looks like were going to be getting about 20,000 vaccines a month unless more come along soon

It's likely going to be 8-10 times that figure, if not more.

Professor Moriarty · 22-12-2020 3:31pm

namloc1980 wrote: »

Did you not read the article? Germany is negotiating it's own allocation outside the EU process:

Germany is conducting direct negotiations with domestic Covid-19 vaccine developers to obtain more doses than would be allocated through the shared European Union plan, Health Minister Jens Spahn said.

From your Der Spiegel article, which is the more recent of the two you quoted:

"But there is one hitch: Deliveries to the EU have priority. And a contract is also needed for that special contingent, but it hasn’t yet been signed, according to company sources. So far, there have only been declarations of intent."

ShineOn7 · 22-12-2020 3:36pm

https://twitter.com/Philip_Ryan/status/1341352425739923457

This number is scarily low

Pfizer is by far the strongest vaccine isn't it? And this is all we'll get?

CIARAN_BOYLE · 22-12-2020 3:41pm

ShineOn7 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/Philip_Ryan/status/1341352425739923457

This number is scarily low

Pfizer is by far the strongest vaccine isn't it? And this is all we'll get?

Honestly I'm ecstatic the numbers are so high.

I was expecting much lower (at least for a while).

There is a reason that NHEPT has been shouting about the vaccine not being a silver bullet.

The last time I saw estimates of numbers from a reliable source was 60,000 doses for 30,000 people in January.

stephenjmcd · 22-12-2020 3:42pm

ShineOn7 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/Philip_Ryan/status/1341352425739923457

This number is scarily low

Pfizer is by far the strongest vaccine isn't it? And this is all we'll get?

40k a week is a very good number given its the only approved vaccine.

That'll change as we go through Jan with approval for others.

40k a week is a good start

hmmm · 22-12-2020 3:44pm

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Pfizer is by far the strongest vaccine isn't it? And this is all we'll get?

Pfizer & Moderna have had the best results with 90-95% effectiveness.

Astra's results were not as good, but there was no severe Covid cases in the vaccine group on their trial so sounds like it will do just fine. They're still testing different combinations, that could all change for the better.

J&J's results are due shortly. They are trying a one-dose and a two-dose version, so we shouldn't be surprised if we don't hear mention of 90% effectiveness. A one-dose vaccine with a high (but not 90%) effectiveness would still be fantastic.

CureVac is another mRNA vaccine, it would be very surprising if their trial figures were not similar to Moderna/Pfizer.

I expect we'll be mixing and matching vaccines depending on the group, age, how vulnerable they are etc.

Professor Moriarty · 22-12-2020 3:46pm

stephenjmcd wrote: »

40k a week is a very good number given its the only approved vaccine.

That'll change as we go through Jan with approval for others.

40k a week is a good start

By comparison, it's the equivalent of the UK distributing 540,000 vaccines per week without approving any other vaccine.

wes · 22-12-2020 3:46pm

Also, over time vaccine production will increase as well.

ShineOn7 · 22-12-2020 3:51pm

hmmm wrote: »

Astra's results were not as good, but there was no severe Covid cases in the vaccine group on their trial so sounds like it will do just fine.

Thanks as ever for the info

Note to self though; try to avoid the Astra one unless it's a last resort ;-)

"Do just fine" isn't good enough for a vaccine

CIARAN_BOYLE · 22-12-2020 3:58pm

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Thanks as ever for the info

Note to self though; try to avoid the Astra one unless it's a last resort ;-)

"Do just fine" isn't good enough for a vaccine

HD/FD seemed great but the trial numbers might be too low for the regulators.

FD/FD seemed to have much poorer results (on par with a single dose of Pfizer or Moderna).

Hopefully HD/FD will have more information by the time it goes to regulators. At any rate it will be a useful factor to improve supplies. Perhaps Astra Zenaca will be offered to lower risk people while Pfizer and Moderna are concentrated on higher risk persons.

As mentioned earlier the supplies of Pfizer (while higher than I was expecting) are a bit crap.

Duke of Url · 22-12-2020 4:00pm

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Thanks as ever for the info

Note to self though; try to avoid the Astra one unless it's a last resort ;-)

"Do just fine" isn't good enough for a vaccine

Not sure about that.

The flu vaccine is only 40% effective I think but seems really popular in saving lives

70% should be very successful.

hmmm · 22-12-2020 4:04pm

ShineOn7 wrote: »

"Do just fine" isn't good enough for a vaccine

We've said all along that the vaccines don't have to be perfect. Perfection would be one that stops the virus and the disease 100%.

Pfizer & Moderna are off the charts. If I could get a vaccine in the near future that pretty much ensures you won't end up in hospital, I'd take it - better than waiting for Pfizer to produce something that might only reach most people in Autumn/Winter 2021.

ACitizenErased · 22-12-2020 4:38pm

Thought I'd let people know - my father's involved in the logistics for swabbing hubs for the HSE. Drive through vaccination centres are ready to go and will be set up within 3-4 hour notice of the go-ahead from Dublin.

odyssey06 · 22-12-2020 4:45pm

Duke of Url wrote: »

Not sure about that.

The flu vaccine is only 40% effective I think but seems really popular in saving lives

70% should be very successful.

You may not be comparing the same % effectiveness...
I've seen 40% used for flu vaccine effectiveness in a given year, but that had very high demographic variability as it gave very little protection to over 65s. Probably its main benefit was in reducing spread by the under 65s who received the vaccine.
Seems like over 65s really need a boosted \ adjuvanted version, I don't think the version rolled out here was adjuvanted but could be wrong on that.

I've also seen 40% used as an indication of its effectiveness over 10 years, and in some years the vaccine strains do not match those in circulation. Hopefully that won't be a concern with covid.

Gael23 · 22-12-2020 4:48pm

Receiving 40000 a week would take 3 years to vaccinate everyone

stephenjmcd · 22-12-2020 4:50pm

Gael23 wrote: »

Receiving 40000 a week would take 3 years to vaccinate everyone

And ?? Its one vaccine.

Its a very good start

CIARAN_BOYLE · 22-12-2020 4:54pm

Gael23 wrote: »

Receiving 40000 a week would take 3 years to vaccinate everyone

Not relying on pfizer alone. Need approval of a few others to come through.

Eventually pfizer can ramp up production too possibly. It will happen if other vaccines aren't approved.

Sweet.Science · 22-12-2020 4:54pm

The Oxford one is the game changer . The world will look a lot different come March

Sky King · 22-12-2020 5:04pm

stephenjmcd wrote: »

And ?? Its one vaccine.

Its a very good start

Indeed it is. We wouldn't be too far off hitting this timeline in that case

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ep1ysuaXcAAToq0.jpg

That's all old folks homes and HCWs, and a good shot of over 70's done by Feb.

is_that_so · 22-12-2020 5:04pm

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

There is a reason that NPHET has been shouting about the vaccine not being a silver bullet.

Quite incoherently I'd say.

Deenie78 · 22-12-2020 5:12pm

Though I'd love to hear it was more, I think getting 40,000 a week for (hopefully) just the first few weeks will give them a chance to get up and running with less risk of making errors and to get into their stride. Hopefully (my favourite word at the moment) by the end of Jan this will have dramatically increased and we'll have a good system in place for them to really go for it.

hmmm · 22-12-2020 5:15pm

Fauci gets the Moderna vaccine
https://twitter.com/carlzimmer/status/1341407481881370631

Gael23 · 22-12-2020 5:24pm

Sweet.Science wrote: »

The Oxford one is the game changer . The world will look a lot different come March

Whats the latest update on that one. They were having some difficulties recently

BryanMartin21 · 22-12-2020 5:37pm

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/level-5-restrictions-likely-to-stay-for-two-months-says-varadkar-1.4443995?mode=amp

Interesting quote from Leo, where he expects the critical mass to be vaccinated by end of February. Light at the end of the tunnel after all it seems! Although, it isn't surprising really. People haven't been dying since the spring so it has really been a casedemic more than anything.

“It will probably be towards the end of February or early March before a critical mass of the population is vaccinated and I think we need to operate on the basis that these restrictions will be in place until then,” Mr Varadkar told a press conference after the Taoiseach’s announcement earlier in the day.

Sky King · 22-12-2020 5:38pm

What is meant by 'critical mass' in this context?

is_that_so · 22-12-2020 5:40pm

Sky King wrote: »

What is meant by 'critical mass' in this context?

As they are doing it in order of risk I'd say most of groups 1-7.

BryanMartin21 · 22-12-2020 5:45pm

is_that_so wrote: »

As they are doing it in order of risk I'd say most of groups 1-7.

Yes, that's what I read it as.

10 weeks until the beginning of March, we're nearly at the end of this covid imposed lockdown nightmare!

Gael23 · 22-12-2020 5:45pm

BryanMartin21 wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/level-5-restrictions-likely-to-stay-for-two-months-says-varadkar-1.4443995?mode=amp

Interesting quote from Leo, where he expects the critical mass to be vaccinated by end of February. Light at the end of the tunnel after all it seems! Although, it isn't surprising really. People haven't been dying since the spring so it has really been a casedemic more than anything.

So back to normal by easter if he is correct?

is_that_so · 22-12-2020 5:47pm

Gael23 wrote: »

So back to normal by easter if he is correct?

Probably not completely but maybe Level 2 or lower.

BryanMartin21 · 22-12-2020 5:48pm

Gael23 wrote: »

So back to normal by easter if he is correct?

If the vulnerable are vaccinated, I would think so, bar maybe large crowd events. There wouldn't be a justification to keep restrictions if vulnerable people had their vaccines. Lockdowns will be optional for those still wary I'm sure, they can stay at home.

COVID-19: Vaccine and testing procedures Megathread Part 2 [Mod Warning - Post #1]

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