The UK COVID variant

Hamsterchops wrote: »

VUI-2022012/01

^This^ is the new strain, much more virulent and with a much greater 'viral load' according to professor Hayward from epidemiology and health at the University of London (Sky News).

Let's just hope we don't get it here

It would be very surprising if we didn't already have it. We're gone looking for it so should know soon.
Luke O'Neill said it doesn't make you sicker, is the harvard professor suggesting otherwise?

Hamsterchops wrote: »

VUI-2022012/01

^This^ is the new strain, much more virulent and with a much greater 'viral load' according to professor Hayward from epidemiology and health at University College London (Sky News).

Let's just hope we don't get it here

You forgot to include the word POSSIBLY, a word that Prof. Hayward himself used.

The new strain is already in Ireland, lets be realistic. The real question is why haven't we identified it here yet? It seems implausible to me that it is "out of control" in the UK and present in other European countries but somehow it is not in Ireland

Yuser. wrote: »

What's VUI?

Variant under investigation

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Why haven't we been on the lookout for new strains, we took the nuclear option on the Mink and we knew there was two versions in cork at the start, how could this have flown under the radar.

There are thousands of variants globally and it's not easy to test for them.

Yuser. wrote: »

We're investigating right now

Not good enough unfortunately

drunkmonkey wrote: »

It's not a good enough excuse, NPHET have been people bashing constantly the last couple of weeks, they've made the assumption it's our behavior while never looking to see has the virus upped it's game.
If this is infact a lot more transmissible version nothing only draconian measures will slow it.

So would you be happier if we cut our number of testing in half so that we can carry out the standard test and the much more complex and costly test on some people?

GarIT wrote: »

So would you be happier if we cut our number of testing in half so that we can carry out the standard test and the much more complex and costly test on some people?

I'd be happier if we know exactly what we're testing, we've no clue just a pcr negative or positive based on an undeclosed number of Cycles. I foud it odd the WHO had do give guidence around the testing last week.

Well a few thousand people were all bundling onto flights last night back to dublin cork etc, so what are the chances one of the doesn't have

monkeybutter wrote: »

Well a few thousand people were all bundling onto flights last night back to dublin cork etc, so what are the chances one of the doesn't have

But they will be isolating for 2 weeks (isn't that the rules?) - ducks and runs.

Pdoghue wrote: »

I don't think it's outlandish to think that up to 1 million people have been infected in Ireland. With 80,000 confirmed cases, the actual infection numbers are thought to be about 10 times the confirmed case numbers, so between 800,000 and 1 million I'd say.

The 10x times estimate figure by WHO is a global average. It includes countries like India and Mexico which are probably only catching 1 in every 20 or 30 cases. Europe has extremely high rates of testing, hundreds of millions of tests have been performed across the continent, 90% of cases are not being missed here, Europe is very much bringing up the global average by a lot so it is certainly far above the 1 in 10 case estimate. And Ireland even more so which has high levels of testing by a European standardm the very low positivity rate also implies relatively few cases are being missed here.

1 million cases in Ireland is certainly outlandish given our neighbouring countries far higher death tolls like Belgium who have 4x times as many deaths as Ireland and obviously 80% of Belgian people have not been infected

There was a huge rise of cases in Donegal/Derry in September and October in contrast to March. I wonder if this this could have been the new variant?