Tuesday/Wednesday 22/23rd, snow and breeze watch

Kermit.de.frog · 18-12-2020 06:42PM #1

ECM signalling a winding up of a system midweek (Tuesday evening and overnight) as it approaches dragging in cold air from it's north eastern flank.

This is one to watch especially inland for some snow fall but also becoming quite windy as well.

ECM1-120.GIF?18-0

It's not only the ECM. ICON which has a higher resolution also following a broadly similar path.

Before hand you can see just how much temperatures struggle on Tuesday

This is because cold air being dragged in and the gradient is tight enough here.

In terms of wind potential not quite as strong as the ECM but nevertheless noticable on east coasts

There is some divergence between the other models and the depth of this system but we should track this from now and see how it develops and whether or not it continues to deepen.

And just to say the more it deepens the greater the wind potential but probably reduces the snow potential.

nacho libre · 18-12-2020 07:41PM

Just for fun.

RobbingBandit · 18-12-2020 07:44PM

No snow you take a years break from snow posts, snow joke.

Well kinda

Reckless Abandonment · 18-12-2020 07:48PM

I'm due to fly to lapland on Wednesday to do a covid test on santa. Will my plane be able to take off ??

Meteorite58 · 18-12-2020 08:21PM

ECM has held this picture now for a few days, all down to the track of the low and how cold the 850 hPa temp gets to.

Rain, Sleet and wet heavy snow by the looks of it.

Kermit.de.frog · 18-12-2020 08:52PM

Japan's JMA latest to fall in line on this forecast. Wouldn't be surprised if this turned in to a more significant event in terms of snow potential in the next couple of days.

That leaves GFS and UKMO with a different forecast and this system staying well to our southwest and swinging back toward the Azores.

pauldry · 18-12-2020 10:19PM

Strangely most snow potential for South midlands. Think us in Sligo will get nothing from this. Some forecasts even have 7c for Sligo while only 2c in the snow areas of Munster and Leinster.

However theres a slight chance of a colder spell bringing snow more widespread after Christmas around Dec 28th though this will likely disappear.

arctictree · 18-12-2020 10:43PM

As far as I can see, GFS is having none of this and the system avoids us altogether...

Kermit.de.frog · 18-12-2020 10:54PM

Aye, there's a standoff at the moment and that has effects for prospects later on too...

Snowbiee21 · 18-12-2020 11:10PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Aye, there's a standoff at the moment and that has effects for prospects later on too...

Updated: thread closes...

Larbre34 · 19-12-2020 12:05AM

The JMA? Would ya give me a break.

None of the senior organisations are having a bar of this.

davidsr20 · 19-12-2020 10:34AM

Is this event Tuesday a no go now?

weisses · 19-12-2020 10:35AM

When will that breeze hit us ?

SleetAndSnow · 19-12-2020 11:52AM

Back to the weather....

Signs are definitely better this christmas then what we have had for the last few years. I can't see it being 12 degrees and wet or as it was two or three years ago, 13 degrees and just foggy... Was rotten.

The way I see this playing out is most of the country could get chilly but I see snow limited to parts of the midlands, north and the mountains in the east. I don't think the conditions for heavy streamers will be there, maybe the occasional graupel or sleet shower. It will feel at least festive if it's chillier though thankfully. I think a better period looks to be the lead up to new years so far with streamers etc but that's just my opinion!

pad199207 · 19-12-2020 11:58AM

A fair few useless posts there best to ignore....

But here’s Met Eireann current take on the event

“Both the timing and the extent of any precipitation are still unclear at this stage, but southern parts of the country are most at risk of seeing some rain or possibly some sleet (depending on timing) and brisk winds later on Tuesday into Wednesday.”

Hopefully a few upgrades to come

Meteorite58 · 19-12-2020 12:35PM

Yes you would have to think that todays output is an outlier with the difference in one run being so big with the position of the LP today much further S and especially that the ECM was quite consistent the previous few days. Todays output have less cold 850 hPa temps, from 0 in the S to -3 in the N , yesterday there was a much sharper cold gradient from 0 to -5 in the midlands .

Will see with the next output.

Kermit.de.frog · 19-12-2020 01:14PM

Ninja snow is best snow

Still some divergence between the models on this.

Let's see where later on today leaves us

Gonzo · 19-12-2020 01:38PM

Mod Note: This thread was going completely off topic with many posts not even relating to what is being discussed here so I've had to delete them all. Stay on topic, all irrelevant posts will be deleted.

Meteorite58 · 19-12-2020 03:59PM

ICON 12Z very much back on track, ECM 06Z increased the chances of wintry mix, probably more in the line of sleet but hadn't changed the track of the low too much.

ICON is one of the best models for predicting snow in my view. Like all models it can be difficult to differentiate between predicted sleet and snow amounts so going by the 850 hPa temps would have to say mostly sleet at this stage and possibly snow on more elevated ground. ECM 12Z will be interesting to see if it comes more back on track.

Meteorite58 · 19-12-2020 04:23PM

GFS now showing some snow potential in the SW late Tues / early weds, looks like Mountain snow on this 12Z run. Looks like the coldest charts by far but that is nothing new for the GFS.

EDIT: ARPEGE 12Z has dropped the low away down South, very cold 850 hPa temps but no source of precipitation.

Meteorite58 · 19-12-2020 08:23PM

ECM has brought the rain bands pushing much further N on the latest run and not showing as much wintry precipitation, would appear that the encroaching rain mass from the S is too mild for wintry precipitation on this run. On the chart below showing a lot of rain just missing us. But this is a big change in the charts again this evening and no doubt there will be plenty of twists and turns yet with this set up .

Met Eireann still going with the piece on how uncertain Tues and Weds is 'Tuesday and Wednesday: There is a little more uncertainty than usual in the forecast as we head into midweek. The main uncertainty pertains to a low pressure system which is expected to track up towards Ireland from the southwest during Tuesday. The main uncertainty is with regard to how far north the rain and wind associated with this system will get and whether or not it will impact our shores. Both the timing and the extent of any precipitation are still unclear at this stage, but southern parts of the country are most at risk of seeing some rain or possibly some sleet (depending on timing) and brisk winds later on Tuesday into Wednesday. Both Tuesday and Wednesday will be cold, with daytime highs of just 3 to 7 degrees, with frost likely on both nights'.

pauldry · 19-12-2020 10:13PM

It may snow in Ballymote Tuesday night but not Sligo. Then it will be still dry for Christmas Day after this event. Seems if there is any snow in it it might be just like what we got earlier in month. A few hours then gone.

Graces7 · 20-12-2020 03:26AM

[QUOTE=Kermit.de.frog;115656390]Ninja snow is best snow

Still some divergence between the models on this.

Let's see where later on today leaves us[/QUOTE]

Not sure what that is...

pauldry · 20-12-2020 11:49AM

This event looks unlikely to me. In fact no snow until maybe after Christmas but that's so far away could easily be rain.

Mild wins again

JanuarySnowstor · 20-12-2020 04:30PM

Snow likely across the South on Wed morning

Hooter23 · 20-12-2020 06:04PM

The big breeze

Little snowy old me · 20-12-2020 07:04PM

It's all going pear shaped

Meteorite58 · 20-12-2020 11:21PM

ECM, GFS showing some wintry precipitation along Southern counties late Tues / early Weds. Probably mostly rain and sleet and some wet snow on the highest ground at this stage. Quite wet in parts of Cork and along Southern coastal it would seem.

Interesting that ICON doesn't develop the rain bands over Ireland at all, outlier ??

Rebelbrowser · 21-12-2020 02:52PM

Can't post charts right now but lots of pink in munster and South leinster on the 6z Euro 04 for tomorrow night into Wednesday.....

Rebelbrowser · 21-12-2020 04:51PM

Just to follow up my earlier post, the 6z Euro 04 (which will be updated shortly) shows snow falling from yesterday evening onwards in Munster and Leinster. I have pasted below its 7am chart showing falling snow (in pink) at that time as well as the snow accumulation (which suggests it will only settle on high ground)...

Kermit.de.frog · 21-12-2020 06:54PM

Looks like this will be sleet and snow at times in the southwest primarily - higher ground elsewhere.

Chance of a couple of cms inland Kerry, Cork, Tipp, Limerick...particularly Tuesday afternoon/evening.

Tuesday/Wednesday 22/23rd, snow and breeze watch

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