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Tuesday/Wednesday 22/23rd, snow and breeze watch
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18-12-2020 7:42pm#1ECM signalling a winding up of a system midweek (Tuesday evening and overnight) as it approaches dragging in cold air from it's north eastern flank.
This is one to watch especially inland for some snow fall but also becoming quite windy as well.
It's not only the ECM. ICON which has a higher resolution also following a broadly similar path.
Before hand you can see just how much temperatures struggle on Tuesday
This is because cold air being dragged in and the gradient is tight enough here.
In terms of wind potential not quite as strong as the ECM but nevertheless noticable on east coasts
There is some divergence between the other models and the depth of this system but we should track this from now and see how it develops and whether or not it continues to deepen.
And just to say the more it deepens the greater the wind potential but probably reduces the snow potential.19
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Yes you would have to think that todays output is an outlier with the difference in one run being so big with the position of the LP today much further S and especially that the ECM was quite consistent the previous few days. Todays output have less cold 850 hPa temps, from 0 in the S to -3 in the N , yesterday there was a much sharper cold gradient from 0 to -5 in the midlands .
Will see with the next output.
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ICON 12Z very much back on track, ECM 06Z increased the chances of wintry mix, probably more in the line of sleet but hadn't changed the track of the low too much.
ICON is one of the best models for predicting snow in my view. Like all models it can be difficult to differentiate between predicted sleet and snow amounts so going by the 850 hPa temps would have to say mostly sleet at this stage and possibly snow on more elevated ground. ECM 12Z will be interesting to see if it comes more back on track.
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GFS now showing some snow potential in the SW late Tues / early weds, looks like Mountain snow on this 12Z run. Looks like the coldest charts by far but that is nothing new for the GFS.
EDIT: ARPEGE 12Z has dropped the low away down South, very cold 850 hPa temps but no source of precipitation.
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ECM has brought the rain bands pushing much further N on the latest run and not showing as much wintry precipitation, would appear that the encroaching rain mass from the S is too mild for wintry precipitation on this run. On the chart below showing a lot of rain just missing us. But this is a big change in the charts again this evening and no doubt there will be plenty of twists and turns yet with this set up .
Met Eireann still going with the piece on how uncertain Tues and Weds is 'Tuesday and Wednesday: There is a little more uncertainty than usual in the forecast as we head into midweek. The main uncertainty pertains to a low pressure system which is expected to track up towards Ireland from the southwest during Tuesday. The main uncertainty is with regard to how far north the rain and wind associated with this system will get and whether or not it will impact our shores. Both the timing and the extent of any precipitation are still unclear at this stage, but southern parts of the country are most at risk of seeing some rain or possibly some sleet (depending on timing) and brisk winds later on Tuesday into Wednesday. Both Tuesday and Wednesday will be cold, with daytime highs of just 3 to 7 degrees, with frost likely on both nights'.
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ECM, GFS showing some wintry precipitation along Southern counties late Tues / early Weds. Probably mostly rain and sleet and some wet snow on the highest ground at this stage. Quite wet in parts of Cork and along Southern coastal it would seem.
Interesting that ICON doesn't develop the rain bands over Ireland at all, outlier ??
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Just to follow up my earlier post, the 6z Euro 04 (which will be updated shortly) shows snow falling from yesterday evening onwards in Munster and Leinster. I have pasted below its 7am chart showing falling snow (in pink) at that time as well as the snow accumulation (which suggests it will only settle on high ground)...
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Yes it would look kike nearly all the models showing wintry precipitation now for Tuesday evening into Weds morning/ early afternoon ( EURO 4 undecided on this run ).
Temperatures at lower levels would suggest little chance of settling snow but perhaps on higher elevations. Looks like a sleety, rain wet snow kind of mix.
Would think that the road from Killarney to Kenmare by Molls Gap might get tricky and the county bounds or the Healy pass etc all could get snow accumulations.
Further inland the hills around Balllydesmond , Rockchapel, Knocknagashal could see snow for a time.
Models have upgraded this a fair bit again I reckon, interesting to see how this pans out.
High rainfall totals in Cork.
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Most eyes on inland Munster tomorrow evening/night. A bit of height always a big help but looks a good chance of seeing at least a few flakes at lower elevations as well as rain and sleet.
A brisk northeasterly wind too. Bit of a bite in the air. Temps between 2 and 4c in the region but up to 6 or 7c on immediate south coasts. Falling back toward freezing after dark.0 -
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Kermit.de.frog wrote: »Most eyes on Munster tomorrow evening/night. A bit of height always a big help but looks a good chance of seeing at least a few flakes at lower elevations as well as rain and sleet.
A brisk northeasterly wind too. Bit of a bite in the air.
the Dundrum near Tipperary on that map stole Dublin's sleet
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I think the models would suggest that there is spot flooding potential Tuesday into Weds along Southern counties, primarily Cork. No mention of high rainfall totals after the news or on Met Eireanns website and no mention of any wintry precipitation after the news. Odd.
Windy along Southern counties also early Weds.
Temperatures look set not to get below freezing in general on lower levels in Munster so perhaps little sticking there for long but if there was a heavy enough dump locally overnight could still be there for a time in the morning.
Will see.
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Rebelbrowser wrote: »If ever the country could do with the beauty and wonderful distraction of snow it is over this Christmas period.......
Have you seen MT Cranium's second last paragraph in his weather forecast todayThe OUTLOOK calls for further wintry weather conditions towards New Years with a growing possibility of significant snowfalls, as low pressure areas begin to form in the broad northerly flow providing a focus for more organized bands of snow or sleet at times. Temperatures will be well below average around zero or +1 C in the daytimes and around -3 C at night. Some of the guidance suggests that the cold spell will dig in and persist for some time into January, and there are also some hints of battleground scenarios where Atlantic moisture over-runs the cold air across Ireland leading to more snowfall. Conditions could become quite harsh in isolated higher terrain with blizzard like conditions possibly affecting free ranging livestock. At the same time, I should underscore the fact that there is some uncertainty about details and it seems likely that conditions will be rather variable from place to place in this coming cold spell, not everyone is going to see the same amounts of snowfall for example. The latest guidance looks very wintry indeed at times in January, and there is no trend towards any fast return to milder Atlantic-dominated regimes, in fact what seems more likely is a second strong northerly setting in around 4th January.
Yippee!
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Rebelbrowser wrote: »Euro 04 still not giving up the ghost here....
How I wish there was a chance of that, nice to dream.Have a weather station?, why not join the Ireland Weather Network - http://irelandweather.eu/
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