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Tuesday/Wednesday 22/23rd, snow and breeze watch

  • 18-12-2020 7:42pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 21,818 ✭✭✭✭ Kermit.de.frog


    ECM signalling a winding up of a system midweek (Tuesday evening and overnight) as it approaches dragging in cold air from it's north eastern flank.

    This is one to watch especially inland for some snow fall but also becoming quite windy as well.

    ECM1-120.GIF?18-0

    ECM0-120.GIF?18-0

    It's not only the ECM. ICON which has a higher resolution also following a broadly similar path.

    Before hand you can see just how much temperatures struggle on Tuesday

    iconeu_uk1-41-96-0.png?18-16

    This is because cold air being dragged in and the gradient is tight enough here.

    iconeu_uk1-16-111-0.png?18-16

    In terms of wind potential not quite as strong as the ECM but nevertheless noticable on east coasts

    iconeu_uk1-3-111-0.png?18-16


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    There is some divergence between the other models and the depth of this system but we should track this from now and see how it develops and whether or not it continues to deepen.

    And just to say the more it deepens the greater the wind potential but probably reduces the snow potential.


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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 14,307 ✭✭✭✭ nacho libre


    snowdepth_20201218_12_114.jpg

    Just for fun.


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,475 ✭✭✭✭ RobbingBandit


    No snow you take a years break from snow posts, snow joke.






    Well kinda ;)


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,376 ✭✭✭ Reckless Abandonment


    I'm due to fly to lapland on Wednesday to do a covid test on santa. Will my plane be able to take off ??


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,466 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    ECM has held this picture now for a few days, all down to the track of the low and how cold the 850 hPa temp gets to.

    Rain, Sleet and wet heavy snow by the looks of it.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 21,818 ✭✭✭✭ Kermit.de.frog


    Japan's JMA latest to fall in line on this forecast. Wouldn't be surprised if this turned in to a more significant event in terms of snow potential in the next couple of days.

    That leaves GFS and UKMO with a different forecast and this system staying well to our southwest and swinging back toward the Azores.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,852 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Strangely most snow potential for South midlands. Think us in Sligo will get nothing from this. Some forecasts even have 7c for Sligo while only 2c in the snow areas of Munster and Leinster.

    However theres a slight chance of a colder spell bringing snow more widespread after Christmas around Dec 28th though this will likely disappear.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,045 ✭✭✭ arctictree


    As far as I can see, GFS is having none of this and the system avoids us altogether...


  • Registered Users Posts: 21,818 ✭✭✭✭ Kermit.de.frog


    Aye, there's a standoff at the moment and that has effects for prospects later on too...


  • Registered Users Posts: 767 ✭✭✭ Snowbiee21


    Aye, there's a standoff at the moment and that has effects for prospects later on too...

    Updated: thread closes...


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,231 ✭✭✭✭ Larbre34


    The JMA? Would ya give me a break.

    None of the senior organisations are having a bar of this.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 756 ✭✭✭ davidsr20


    Is this event Tuesday a no go now?


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,110 ✭✭✭ weisses


    When will that breeze hit us ?


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,306 ✭✭✭ SleetAndSnow


    Back to the weather....

    Signs are definitely better this christmas then what we have had for the last few years. I can't see it being 12 degrees and wet or as it was two or three years ago, 13 degrees and just foggy... Was rotten.

    The way I see this playing out is most of the country could get chilly but I see snow limited to parts of the midlands, north and the mountains in the east. I don't think the conditions for heavy streamers will be there, maybe the occasional graupel or sleet shower. It will feel at least festive if it's chillier though thankfully. I think a better period looks to be the lead up to new years so far with streamers etc but that's just my opinion!


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,447 ✭✭✭ pad199207


    A fair few useless posts there best to ignore....

    But here’s Met Eireann current take on the event

    “Both the timing and the extent of any precipitation are still unclear at this stage, but southern parts of the country are most at risk of seeing some rain or possibly some sleet (depending on timing) and brisk winds later on Tuesday into Wednesday.”

    Hopefully a few upgrades to come


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,466 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Yes you would have to think that todays output is an outlier with the difference in one run being so big with the position of the LP today much further S and especially that the ECM was quite consistent the previous few days. Todays output have less cold 850 hPa temps, from 0 in the S to -3 in the N , yesterday there was a much sharper cold gradient from 0 to -5 in the midlands .

    Will see with the next output.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 21,818 ✭✭✭✭ Kermit.de.frog


    Ninja snow is best snow :D

    Still some divergence between the models on this.

    Let's see where later on today leaves us


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,180 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    Mod Note: This thread was going completely off topic with many posts not even relating to what is being discussed here so I've had to delete them all. Stay on topic, all irrelevant posts will be deleted.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,466 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    ICON 12Z very much back on track, ECM 06Z increased the chances of wintry mix, probably more in the line of sleet but hadn't changed the track of the low too much.

    ICON is one of the best models for predicting snow in my view. Like all models it can be difficult to differentiate between predicted sleet and snow amounts so going by the 850 hPa temps would have to say mostly sleet at this stage and possibly snow on more elevated ground. ECM 12Z will be interesting to see if it comes more back on track.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,466 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    GFS now showing some snow potential in the SW late Tues / early weds, looks like Mountain snow on this 12Z run. Looks like the coldest charts by far but that is nothing new for the GFS.

    EDIT: ARPEGE 12Z has dropped the low away down South, very cold 850 hPa temps but no source of precipitation.


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,466 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    ECM has brought the rain bands pushing much further N on the latest run and not showing as much wintry precipitation, would appear that the encroaching rain mass from the S is too mild for wintry precipitation on this run. On the chart below showing a lot of rain just missing us. But this is a big change in the charts again this evening and no doubt there will be plenty of twists and turns yet with this set up .

    Met Eireann still going with the piece on how uncertain Tues and Weds is 'Tuesday and Wednesday: There is a little more uncertainty than usual in the forecast as we head into midweek. The main uncertainty pertains to a low pressure system which is expected to track up towards Ireland from the southwest during Tuesday. The main uncertainty is with regard to how far north the rain and wind associated with this system will get and whether or not it will impact our shores. Both the timing and the extent of any precipitation are still unclear at this stage, but southern parts of the country are most at risk of seeing some rain or possibly some sleet (depending on timing) and brisk winds later on Tuesday into Wednesday. Both Tuesday and Wednesday will be cold, with daytime highs of just 3 to 7 degrees, with frost likely on both nights'.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,852 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    It may snow in Ballymote Tuesday night but not Sligo. Then it will be still dry for Christmas Day after this event. Seems if there is any snow in it it might be just like what we got earlier in month. A few hours then gone.


  • Registered Users Posts: 30,543 ✭✭✭✭ Graces7


    [QUOTE=Kermit.de.frog;115656390]Ninja snow is best snow :D

    Still some divergence between the models on this.

    Let's see where later on today leaves us[/QUOTE]

    Not sure what that is...


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,852 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    This event looks unlikely to me. In fact no snow until maybe after Christmas but that's so far away could easily be rain.

    Mild wins again


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,384 ✭✭✭ JanuarySnowstor


    Snow likely across the South on Wed morning


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,298 ✭✭✭ Hooter23


    The big breeze


  • Registered Users Posts: 411 ✭✭ Little snowy old me


    It's all going pear shaped


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,466 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    ECM, GFS showing some wintry precipitation along Southern counties late Tues / early Weds. Probably mostly rain and sleet and some wet snow on the highest ground at this stage. Quite wet in parts of Cork and along Southern coastal it would seem.

    Interesting that ICON doesn't develop the rain bands over Ireland at all, outlier ??


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,728 ✭✭✭ Rebelbrowser


    Can't post charts right now but lots of pink in munster and South leinster on the 6z Euro 04 for tomorrow night into Wednesday.....


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,728 ✭✭✭ Rebelbrowser


    Just to follow up my earlier post, the 6z Euro 04 (which will be updated shortly) shows snow falling from yesterday evening onwards in Munster and Leinster. I have pasted below its 7am chart showing falling snow (in pink) at that time as well as the snow accumulation (which suggests it will only settle on high ground)...

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  • Registered Users Posts: 21,818 ✭✭✭✭ Kermit.de.frog


    Looks like this will be sleet and snow at times in the southwest primarily - higher ground elsewhere.

    Chance of a couple of cms inland Kerry, Cork, Tipp, Limerick...particularly Tuesday afternoon/evening.


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