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Tuesday/Wednesday 22/23rd, snow and breeze watch
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18-12-2020 7:42pm#1ECM signalling a winding up of a system midweek (Tuesday evening and overnight) as it approaches dragging in cold air from it's north eastern flank.
This is one to watch especially inland for some snow fall but also becoming quite windy as well.
It's not only the ECM. ICON which has a higher resolution also following a broadly similar path.
Before hand you can see just how much temperatures struggle on Tuesday
This is because cold air being dragged in and the gradient is tight enough here.
In terms of wind potential not quite as strong as the ECM but nevertheless noticable on east coasts
There is some divergence between the other models and the depth of this system but we should track this from now and see how it develops and whether or not it continues to deepen.
And just to say the more it deepens the greater the wind potential but probably reduces the snow potential.19
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Yes you would have to think that todays output is an outlier with the difference in one run being so big with the position of the LP today much further S and especially that the ECM was quite consistent the previous few days. Todays output have less cold 850 hPa temps, from 0 in the S to -3 in the N , yesterday there was a much sharper cold gradient from 0 to -5 in the midlands .
Will see with the next output.
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ICON 12Z very much back on track, ECM 06Z increased the chances of wintry mix, probably more in the line of sleet but hadn't changed the track of the low too much.
ICON is one of the best models for predicting snow in my view. Like all models it can be difficult to differentiate between predicted sleet and snow amounts so going by the 850 hPa temps would have to say mostly sleet at this stage and possibly snow on more elevated ground. ECM 12Z will be interesting to see if it comes more back on track.
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GFS now showing some snow potential in the SW late Tues / early weds, looks like Mountain snow on this 12Z run. Looks like the coldest charts by far but that is nothing new for the GFS.
EDIT: ARPEGE 12Z has dropped the low away down South, very cold 850 hPa temps but no source of precipitation.
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ECM has brought the rain bands pushing much further N on the latest run and not showing as much wintry precipitation, would appear that the encroaching rain mass from the S is too mild for wintry precipitation on this run. On the chart below showing a lot of rain just missing us. But this is a big change in the charts again this evening and no doubt there will be plenty of twists and turns yet with this set up .
Met Eireann still going with the piece on how uncertain Tues and Weds is 'Tuesday and Wednesday: There is a little more uncertainty than usual in the forecast as we head into midweek. The main uncertainty pertains to a low pressure system which is expected to track up towards Ireland from the southwest during Tuesday. The main uncertainty is with regard to how far north the rain and wind associated with this system will get and whether or not it will impact our shores. Both the timing and the extent of any precipitation are still unclear at this stage, but southern parts of the country are most at risk of seeing some rain or possibly some sleet (depending on timing) and brisk winds later on Tuesday into Wednesday. Both Tuesday and Wednesday will be cold, with daytime highs of just 3 to 7 degrees, with frost likely on both nights'.
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ECM, GFS showing some wintry precipitation along Southern counties late Tues / early Weds. Probably mostly rain and sleet and some wet snow on the highest ground at this stage. Quite wet in parts of Cork and along Southern coastal it would seem.
Interesting that ICON doesn't develop the rain bands over Ireland at all, outlier ??
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Just to follow up my earlier post, the 6z Euro 04 (which will be updated shortly) shows snow falling from yesterday evening onwards in Munster and Leinster. I have pasted below its 7am chart showing falling snow (in pink) at that time as well as the snow accumulation (which suggests it will only settle on high ground)...
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