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Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

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    #5522
    Rrrrrr2
    Registered Users Posts: 982 ✭✭✭Rrrrrr2


    joe40 wrote: »
    If there is a no deal situation come Jan 1st as is looking likely now, surely that doesn't mean no future deals will be possible. Maybe both will let the no deal scenario play out for a few months, maybe emergency rules, but then just return as two separate entities looking to negotiate a trade deal. I know it will still be complicated but eventually a trade deal between EU and UK will exist.

    Is that a possibility at this stage?

    That’s how I see it playing it out- though I’m no expert on the matter


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    #5523
    kub
    Registered Users Posts: 6,538 ✭✭✭kub


    joe40 wrote: »
    If there is a no deal situation come Jan 1st as is looking likely now, surely that doesn't mean no future deals will be possible. Maybe both will let the no deal scenario play out for a few months, maybe emergency rules, but then just return as two separate entities looking to negotiate a trade deal. I know it will still be complicated but eventually a trade deal between EU and UK will exist.

    Is that a possibility at this stage?


    That is exactly what Macron was suggesting, let them have a taste of their No Deal and then negotiate again with them in a few months when they are in a weaker position


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    #5524
    Sam Russell
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,527 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    joe40 wrote: »
    If there is a no deal situation come Jan 1st as is looking likely now, surely that doesn't mean no future deals will be possible. Maybe both will let the no deal scenario play out for a few months, maybe emergency rules, but then just return as two separate entities looking to negotiate a trade deal. I know it will still be complicated but eventually a trade deal between EU and UK will exist.

    Is that a possibility at this stage?

    Remember the Greeks - they rejected a deal from the EU, but later came crawling back and accepted an even worse deal.

    The EU are done with compromise - now the UK must take it and leave, or not take it and leave. It is up to them. The EU no longer cares - they have more important fish to fry.


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    #5525
    10000maniacs
    Registered Users Posts: 4,834 ✭✭✭10000maniacs


    Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »
    Won't be the end of the world but it's going to be a big hit, especially with Covid. This article from RTE makes for a sobering read:

    https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/1210/1183700-brexit-no-deal-ireland/

    Replace our grazing land with wheat, we should be 100% flour safe as a country. It's ridiculous that we are not.
    Same with potatoes. Its not exactly rocket science to produce potatoes suitable for chips in Ireland.
    Ireland was ranked highest in the world as food safe in 2018. Singapore pipped us to number 1 spot in 2019.
    We shouldn't have to be so dependent on shipping 52% of our slaughtered meat to the UK.


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    #5526
    trellheim
    Registered Users Posts: 5,894 ✭✭✭trellheim


    we have no flour mills it all goes to the UK to be milled


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    #5527
    10000maniacs
    Registered Users Posts: 4,834 ✭✭✭10000maniacs


    trellheim wrote: »
    we have no flour mills it all goes to the UK to be milled
    If we build them, they will come, I mean the grain trucks. :)


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    #5528
    Rrrrrr2
    Registered Users Posts: 982 ✭✭✭Rrrrrr2


    trellheim wrote: »
    we have no flour mills it all goes to the UK to be milled

    Mosses in Kilkenny is still going strong? But mill more niche stuff


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    #5529
    AutoTuning
    Closed Accounts Posts: 423 ✭✭AutoTuning


    trellheim wrote: »
    we have no flour mills it all goes to the UK to be milled

    Sourcing flour, an easily shipped, long shelf-life commodity item, is hardly going to be a major challenge. There are plenty of supplies of it on the continent.

    If there's a business case for setting up or expanding milling operations again here, I'm sure they'll happen too.


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    #5530
    Strazdas
    Registered Users Posts: 18,383 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    Sam Russell wrote: »
    Remember the Greeks - they rejected a deal from the EU, but later came crawling back and accepted an even worse deal.

    The EU are done with compromise - now the UK must take it and leave, or not take it and leave. It is up to them. The EU no longer cares - they have more important fish to fry.

    It's not clear what Johnson was up to but it looks like he seriously miscalculated how the autumn would go. The EU have been far more resolute than he ever expected, von der Leyen is a tough cookie and patience with the UK has long since worn out.


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    #5531
    10000maniacs
    Registered Users Posts: 4,834 ✭✭✭10000maniacs


    AutoTuning wrote: »
    Sourcing flour, an easily shipped, long shelf-life commodity item, is hardly going to be a major challenge. There are plenty of supplies of it on the continent.

    If there's a business case for setting up or expanding milling operations again here, I'm sure they'll happen too.

    The point I am making is think of a no deal Brexit as an opportunity. Fill the gaps left by Brexit with actual stuff WE need and currently get from the UK, whether it's wheat, corn, Maris Pipers.


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    #5532
    Rrrrrr2
    Registered Users Posts: 982 ✭✭✭Rrrrrr2


    Strazdas wrote: »
    It's not clear what Johnson was up to but it looks like he seriously miscalculated how the autumn would go. The EU have been far more resolute than he ever expected, von der Leyen is a tough cookie and patience with the UK has long since worn out.

    She’s no messer and neither is Barnier- clearly in mood for fooling around or cheap quips


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    #5533
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,598 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    AutoTuning wrote: »
    It's really not looking great and will be a total mess for Northern Ireland by the looks of it.

    It's possible the NI protocol might end up being imposed on them by Biden in lieu of a US deal, rather than having been voluntarily done as part of a EU deal.

    The protocol is implemented regardless of deal or no deal.

    There will be tarriffs between GB and NI in event of no deal now.


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    #5534
    MrMusician18
    Registered Users Posts: 7,302 ✭✭✭MrMusician18


    Strazdas wrote: »
    It's not clear what Johnson was up to but it looks like he seriously miscalculated how the autumn would go. The EU have been far more resolute than he ever expected, von der Leyen is a tough cookie and patience with the UK has long since worn out.

    The idea of breaking it down to personalities is a mistake. I couldn't have seen the EU allowing the UK free access to it's single market whilst at the same time legally guaranteeing their ability to undermine it no matter who was in charge. It isn't hyperbole to say it would be the beginning of the end for the EU if the EU have the UK the terms it desired.

    Whatever compromise that is conjured up may not involve retaliatory tariffs on any other industry as is proposed but perhaps limiting access of the offending sector or not granting the UK full access in the first instance.


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    #5535
    trellheim
    Registered Users Posts: 5,894 ✭✭✭trellheim


    Rrrrrr2 wrote: »
    She’s no messer and neither is Barnier- clearly in mood for fooling around or cheap quips

    With the Hungarian and Polish ROL stuff going on the EU cannot afford to appear pushovers, there is only so much political oxygen available.


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    #5536
    20silkcut
    Registered Users Posts: 2,562 ✭✭✭20silkcut


    10000maniacs wrote: »
    The point I am making is think of a no deal Brexit as an opportunity. Fill the gaps left by Brexit with actual stuff WE need and currently get from the UK, whether it's wheat, corn, Maris Pipers.

    I think the potatoes used for chips are dependent on a certain soil type not found in this country but that the U.K. has.
    However I have often had homemade chips cut from Irish potatoes and they hit the spot just as good as any.
    The beef industry is a different matter but it is a very protected sector in this country with powerful forces behind the scenes pulling all sorts of strings. No fear of it. And many farmers would not lament a good shake up there and a diversification into a more profitable land use anyway.
    I presume we will no longer be importing British sugar into this country after brexit. There is an opportunity right there.


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    #5537
    AutoTuning
    Closed Accounts Posts: 423 ✭✭AutoTuning


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    The protocol is implemented regardless of deal or no deal.

    There will be tarriffs between GB and NI in event of no deal now.

    Are you sure about that? The UK isn't exactly known for keeping its word and it could well be shot down again in parliament.

    The only incentive to removing the Internal Market Bill sections that caused problems was the incentive to do a deal with the EU.


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    #5538
    reslfj
    Registered Users Posts: 876 ✭✭✭reslfj


    RobMc59 wrote: »
    The UK joined the European economic community and as I remember it,that's what it was then,an economic trading bloc so to say it was never a trading bloc is incorrect.

    Of course it was also a trading block with 9 members in 1973.

    But is was very much more than trade already then.

    And trade is very much more now than lower tariffs. It's now much more standards, rules and regulations too. Modern trade simply can't work without.

    PM Ted Heath wrote this in 1972. He had held many speeches and written many more articles long before that saying the same about the EEC.


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    #5539
    Strazdas
    Registered Users Posts: 18,383 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    RobMc59 wrote: »
    The UK joined the European economic community and as I remember it,that's what it was then,an economic trading bloc so to say it was never a trading bloc is incorrect.

    The British press was full of articles in the 1970s about the EEC being a political union. Some have been republished in recent times.

    It's the Brexiteers who have rewritten history and claimed the UK was 'tricked' into joining. The 1975 UK debates were actually very intelligent and nuanced compared to the dumbed down Brexit nonsense of today.


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    #5540
    reslfj
    Registered Users Posts: 876 ✭✭✭reslfj


    AutoTuning wrote: »
    Are you sure about that? ...

    Yes, Kermit can be sure.
    The Irish protocol is part of the WA - an international treaty.

    The EU and the UK government has very recently agreed on the main implementation procedures including the EU's official presence and offices in NI.

    But don't make any mistake by the nice and diplomatic language of Michel Barnier.

    The EU can and will use all the means needed to get the UK of follow what has been agreed.

    Lars :)


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    #5541
    reslfj
    Registered Users Posts: 876 ✭✭✭reslfj


    trellheim wrote: »
    With the Hungarian and Polish ROL stuff going on ...

    Merkel and the "Germany’s Presidency of the Council of the European Union" https://www.eu2020.de/eu2020-en has just agreed with HU and PL.

    It is the Brexit that from 2021 will not be allowed to consume EU's "political oxygen" any longer.

    Lars :)


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    #5542
    trellheim
    Registered Users Posts: 5,894 ✭✭✭trellheim


    Gossip ... but anyway


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    #5543
    RobMc59
    Registered Users Posts: 4,831 ✭✭✭RobMc59


    Strazdas wrote: »
    The British press was full of articles in the 1970s about the EEC being a political union. Some have been republished in recent times.

    It's the Brexiteers who have rewritten history and claimed the UK was 'tricked' into joining. The 1975 UK debates were actually very intelligent and nuanced compared to the dumbed down Brexit nonsense of today.

    As I recall,joining the common market was greeted with rejoicing back in the day here in the UK and agree brexiteers have somehow morphed it into a bad thing which I agree, it has never been.


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    #5544
    CelticRambler
    Registered Users Posts: 6,768 ✭✭✭CelticRambler


    trellheim wrote: »
    Gossip ... but anyway

    That line about Johnson not seeming to realise he'd caused offence ... Seeing the way Cousin Donald's mental faculties seem to have taken a hit recently, I'd be wondering if both of them are suffering with a degree of the psychological impairment that can be a lasting effect of severe Covid-19.

    I know Johnson has a certain amount of "form" as regards this kind of behaviour, but will historians look back at this year and be able to show how SARS-CoV-2 played a direct, active role in disrupting the thought processes of those who really needed clear heads at a critical time.


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    #5545
    MrMusician18
    Registered Users Posts: 7,302 ✭✭✭MrMusician18


    CelticRambler wrote: »
    That line about Johnson not seeming to realise he'd caused offence ... Seeing the way Cousin Donald's mental faculties seem to have taken a hit recently, I'd be wondering if both of them are suffering with a degree of the psychological impairment that can be a lasting effect of severe Covid-19.

    I know Johnson has a certain amount of "form" as regards this kind of behaviour, but will historians look back at this year and be able to show how SARS-CoV-2 played a direct, active role in disrupting the thought processes of those who really needed clear heads at a critical time.

    There is far too much focus on the personalities in general when it comes to brexit. This it tittle tattle gossip and adds little. Johnson could be the most ignorant oaf on the planet, but if he had brought something workable to the table this stuff would be glossed over.

    Thats all that can be taken from above - he brought nothing new to the table. The rest is noise, not worthy of discussion.


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    #5546
    Rrrrrr2
    Registered Users Posts: 982 ✭✭✭Rrrrrr2


    I’d believe every word of that- fits perfectly! The French German jokes sound gringe inducing. No Deal it is


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    #5547
    54and56
    Registered Users Posts: 7,661 ✭✭✭54and56


    kub wrote: »
    That is exactly what Macron was suggesting, let them have a taste of their No Deal and then negotiate again with them in a few months when they are in a weaker position

    If the impact of a no deal can be softened in the short term by compensating the industries most hit in the EU this strategy would likely produce the best long term result for the EU.


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    #5548
    joeysoap
    Registered Users Posts: 6,239 ✭✭✭joeysoap


    question time tonight: ex Australian pm was very good. Explained to anyone listening that the EU was not being vindictive but merely protecting its members. Predictably half the panel weren’t listening. It’s all about sovereignty, ain’t it.


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    #5549
    Rrrrrr2
    Registered Users Posts: 982 ✭✭✭Rrrrrr2


    54and56 wrote: »
    If the impact of a no deal can be softened in the short term by compensating the industries most hit in the EU this strategy would likely produce the best long term result for the EU.

    Absolutely- and focus on developing existing and new markets- a lot of Ireland’s U.K. trade is to so with historical inertia and sheer convenience. I don’t think it’s insurmountable now and given time things will sort themselves out- WTO tariffs are just not a viable option for either side to trade under


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    #5550
    Rrrrrr2
    Registered Users Posts: 982 ✭✭✭Rrrrrr2


    joeysoap wrote: »
    question time tonight: ex Australian pm was very good. Explained to anyone listening that the EU was not being vindictive but merely protecting its members. Predictably half the panel weren’t listening. It’s all about sovereignty, ain’t it.

    That’s not what they want to hear so you might as well be talking to a wall really


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    #5551
    RobMc59
    Registered Users Posts: 4,831 ✭✭✭RobMc59


    Rrrrrr2 wrote: »
    Absolutely- and focus on developing existing and new markets- a lot of Ireland’s U.K. trade is to so with historical inertia and sheer convenience. I don’t think it’s insurmountable now and given time things will sort themselves out- WTO tariffs are just not a viable option for either side to trade under

    I think you've hit the nail on the head, problems will arise when what we all take for granted (Irish beef here in the UK and various British food products in Ireland for example) suddenly becomes considerably more expensive or unobtainable.


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