Covid 19 Part XXIX-85,394 ROI(2,200 deaths) 62,723 NI (1,240 deaths) (26/12) Read OP

Eivor · 07-12-2020 11:11AM

yourdeadwright wrote: »

Government in my opinion made a huge mistake opening pubs and restaurants,
The spread in the Christmas period was going to rise even in level 5 ,
January will be an absolute sh*t show ,

If you’re staying home and wearing a mask while on essential food shopping trips you’ll be fine so don’t worry too much

yourdeadwright · 07-12-2020 11:15AM

Eivor wrote: »

If you’re staying home and wearing a mask while on essential food shopping trips you’ll be fine so don’t worry too much

I'm afraid its not that easy iv kids in school and a Wife working in a school ,

So other people could become infected pass it to there children and then it ends up back in my house,

yourdeadwright · 07-12-2020 11:17AM

Drumpot wrote: »

Fear is a technique often used by governments/authorities because they are bad at communicating in a way that resonates with the public. Unfortunately the public do act like children sometimes which reinforces the belief that fear methods used are gonna be most effective .

I’m not afraid of catching COVID. I’m not afraid of what might happen in January if things get hairy. I’m taking steps to limit my exposure to the virus and doing what I can do to manage the virus in my life.

This includes not getting absorbed in all the hysterical media stuff and RTE news that upsets people. Most of these are terrible sources for a balanced view on the state of events.

I think of each week like I’ve credits to use in terms of risk options. The more credits I use (going to shops or work appointments) the more my risk increases. I’m not scared, just very aware and reflective of the decisions I make.

The virus doesn't care what number credit your on , If it becomes rampant you cold get it while your out using your first "credit"

is_that_so · 07-12-2020 11:18AM

Drumpot wrote: »

What do you think is most likely?

Numbers less then the worst daily in October , even or more? Honestly I don’t know but I’d be pleasantly surprised if it ended up less.

It feels a bit like I’m back in February when Nobody took this seriously (I did) and it was inevitable that the virus was coming only this time people know numbers will rise but don’t care once shops, pubs and family gatherings can open/happen. Maybe numbers won’t jump too much but it seems hard to understand how this won’t be the case when you look at what we know about the environments the virus loves to spread.

As I've said earlier January should bring vaccines. That potentially begins to ease hospital risks. On numbers bear in mind this free for all only goes up to January 5th. After that we're probably back into some restrictions anyway. I think our daily cases may go back to near 1000 but hopeful that it will be little more than 500.

Drumpot · 07-12-2020 11:23AM

yourdeadwright wrote: »

I'm afraid its not that easy iv kids in school and a Wife working in a school ,

So other people could become infected pass it to there children and then it ends up back in my house,

This is the thing I’ve noticed a lot. People don’t really reflect on the impact the decisions they make that could end up impacting others.

I’ve had an extensive discussion with somebody I am close to about family gatherings and going to the pub. They are taking a “well government says it’s grand” approach and don’t think about how their decisions may impact the other people they will see over Christmas.

People will suit themselves and come up with all sorts of excuses as to why it’s ok for them to do what they want to do. We all do it at times, it’s just easier to spot it now when a more cautious approach would be more prudent but nobody really wants Christmas to be cancelled.

Drumpot · 07-12-2020 11:31AM

yourdeadwright wrote: »

The virus doesn't care what number credit your on , If it becomes rampant you cold get it while your out using your first "credit"

I understand that and I amend my behavior according to risk.

I believe I take a more balanced approach to most. I imported special N95 masks from USA months ago. Don’t even go to physical support groups I usually attend. Have been taking my vitamins and changed how I shop since February when I started to take this seriously.

I save my credits mostly for work and groceries. I’m not perfect but I take the approach that a cautious level of exposure is acceptable. I can honestly say if everybody took the same approach as me , things would of been far better but I’m sure there’s people who have been even more cautious then me.

Drumpot · 07-12-2020 11:46AM

is_that_so wrote: »

As I've said earlier January should bring vaccines. That potentially begins to ease hospital risks. On numbers bear in mind this free for all only goes up to January 5th. After that we're probably back into some restrictions anyway. I think our daily cases may go back to near 1000 but hopeful that it will be little more than 500.

I’d of thought it will be a few months before we see the real benefits of the vaccine rollout?!

is_that_so · 07-12-2020 11:47AM

Drumpot wrote: »

I’d of thought it will be a few months before we see the real benefits of the vaccine rollout?!

I agree, but we may start to see smaller signs of it from January on.

Stheno · 07-12-2020 11:56AM

is_that_so wrote: »

I agree, but we may start to see smaller signs of it from January on.

A reduction in severe cases amongst the elderly and healthcare workers should be the first impact of the vaccines I'd imagine

snowstorm445 · 07-12-2020 12:01PM

FFS

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/hundreds-ill-dead-due-unidentified-disease-india-74579553

Flyer1 · 07-12-2020 12:05PM

is_that_so wrote: »

On numbers bear in mind this free for all only goes up to January 5th. .

Sorry but where is this " free for all "

We are currently in Level 3 of " Living with Covid " - We are still not allowed visitors to our home except those in our support bubble, we are not allowed go to a pub to just get a drink, we are not allowed to leave our own county, I can't attend a match, I can only go to a wedding with 25 people there, .

That is a very unusual view on the world if thats a free for all.

xabi · 07-12-2020 12:08PM

snowstorm445 wrote: »

FFS

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/hundreds-ill-dead-due-unidentified-disease-india-74579553

Bad case of Dehli Belly

growleaves · 07-12-2020 12:17PM

The virus doesn't care
To wonder, “Do I dare?” and, “Do I dare?”
Disturb the universe?

is_that_so · 07-12-2020 12:25PM

Flyer1 wrote: »

Sorry but where is this " free for all "

We are currently in Level 3 of " Living with Covid " - We are still not allowed visitors to our home except those in our support bubble, we are not allowed go to a pub to just get a drink, we are not allowed to leave our own county, I can't attend a match, I can only go to a wedding with 25 people there, .

That is a very unusual view on the world if thats a free for all.

Free movement from 18 December until Jan 5!

Stheno · 07-12-2020 12:39PM

is_that_so wrote: »

Free movement from 18 December until Jan 5!

Its not there are limits on how many households you can mix with, no?

Zebra3 · 07-12-2020 12:55PM

is_that_so wrote: »

Free movement from 18 December until Jan 5!

Still loads of restrictions in place during that time.

caveat emptor · 07-12-2020 01:02PM

Drumpot wrote: »

What sort of surge do you expect in January? Hard to see how it’s not gonna be fairly sizeable. I think most people are resigned to another lockdown but seeing S Korea numbers really take off I’d be a bit worried. Thanksgiving in USA has also given us a warning on how events where families get together can super size the spread.

I still think optimistically things may be able to go back to relative normalcy in the summer but January may be a bigger shock then some expect as huge complacency might cost us.

Who knows but any surge will be the product of human behaviour. On the one hand people are careful and ventilation is now an important aspect of mitigation.
Ireland really does have the best Christmas compared to any other country. Logically I'd expect a doubling 1 to 2 weeks after Christmas but the number of cases going into that week would be the determinant. ie if there are 200 cases it's probably not an issue going to 400. However we are not accounting for the effect of thousands of people milling about shopping , eating , drinking etc no matter how safe we safe it is. The fact is we don't know.

is_that_so · 07-12-2020 01:20PM

Zebra3 wrote: »

Still loads of restrictions in place during that time.

Compared to the last 3 months it's a free for all!

is_that_so · 07-12-2020 01:22PM

Stheno wrote: »

Its not there are limits on how many households you can mix with, no?

Yes of course, but a lot more scope to work within that. TBH I'm working on the basis that judicious planning will allow you to see people inside and out before we return to where we are now, for 3 weeks in January.

Deeper Blue · 07-12-2020 01:23PM

snowstorm445 wrote: »

FFS

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/hundreds-ill-dead-due-unidentified-disease-india-74579553

Nothing to do with covid though so why post it?

snowstorm445 · 07-12-2020 02:40PM

El Sueño wrote: »

Nothing to do with covid though so why post it?

Fair enough, wasn't sure what pandemic related thread to post it on. Let's just hope whatever it is is contained.

Ficheall · 07-12-2020 03:46PM

is_that_so wrote: »

I agree, but we may start to see smaller signs of it from January on.

Iirc, isn't it about a month after the first jab that you're supposed to be immune?

Hooter23 · 07-12-2020 03:57PM

I see they are on RTE now explaining the difference between the flu and coronavirus...I think they need to explain this to the HSE because they are clearly not following there own advice...we have not have had 1 single case of flu reported this year...this does not make sense and is not possible...they cannot be all coronavirus

weldoninhio · 07-12-2020 03:58PM

snowstorm445 wrote: »

Fair enough, wasn't sure what pandemic related thread to post it on. Let's just hope whatever it is is contained.

How about none, as it isn't pandemic related?

MerlinSouthDub · 07-12-2020 03:59PM

234 positive swabs, 9623 tests, 2.43% + rate

stephenjmcd · 07-12-2020 04:01PM

Sunday swabs, 292 from 9413 tests.

Today: 234 from 9623, 2.4%

7 day at 2.5%

seamus · 07-12-2020 04:09PM

Definitely a "bumping along the bottom" sense coming from these numbers. There's a slight downward trend overall, but much shallower than six week ago.

7-day + rate today: 2.52%
Monday 30th: 2.68%
Monday 23rd: 2.98%
Monday 16th: 3.84%

2-2.5% might be about as low as we can go without a complete lockdown and with the North in such a mess. It's manageable, but it means that any hope of level 1 or 2 in January or Febraury next year can be put to sleep.

If NI gets its house in order, we might be able to get to 1-1.5%

bikeman1 · 07-12-2020 04:11PM

Quite encouraging numbers still, given that the "car parks were full" two weeks ago and people weren't worried supposedly.

If the announced numbers are in the low 200s today, is it safe to say that any backlog has been cleared??

seamus · 07-12-2020 04:13PM

Hooter23 wrote: »

I see they are on RTE now explaining the difference between the flu and coronavirus...I think they need to explain this to the HSE because they are clearly not following there own advice...we have not have had 1 single case of flu reported this year...this does not make sense and is not possible...they cannot be all coronavirus

Influenza is less virulent than Covid and less likely to result in severe symptoms.

Actual cases of 'flu reported to the HSE are only done after a lab result, and I imagine basically nobody is getting tested for 'flu.

In other words, someone goes to the GP feeling crap, GP sends for a covid test, negative result, "go home and stay in bed and drink plenty of fluids". So nothing is reported to the HSE.

Older people restricting their movements will have a massive impact on the number of serious 'flu cases presenting themselves.

I can well believe that none have been reported, but that doesn't mean nobody has it.

eigrod · 07-12-2020 04:14PM

I make the last 7 days swab numbers = 1,910 and the last 6 days case numbers = 1,744. A difference of 166. Would be great if tonight’s case numbers are in the order of 166 then. No certainty about that though.

Covid 19 Part XXIX-85,394 ROI(2,200 deaths) 62,723 NI (1,240 deaths) (26/12) Read OP

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