Covid 19 Part XXIX-85,394 ROI(2,200 deaths) 62,723 NI (1,240 deaths) (26/12) Read OP

is_that_so · 07-12-2020 07:55AM

Tomas Ryan - pretty much the same article that he's been doing for months, now enlisting the "silent majority", democracy and a liberal use of statistics to prove he's right.

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/silent-majority-supports-goal-of-zero-covid-1.4428981

07-12-2020 08:08AM

Calm down folks, some people like to blur their identity somewhat given Ireland is such a small place. Its not uncommon to blur some anecdotes so as not to be identifiable while still maintaining the substance of the story. It is entirely forgivable to then forget the details changed and possibly to contradict oneself. I myself may have had an uncle become a friend and a work colleague become a neighbour. All facts were as related however

Happydays2020 · 07-12-2020 08:19AM

is_that_so wrote: »

Tomas Ryan - pretty much the same article that he's been doing for months, now enlisting the "silent majority", democracy and a liberal use of statistics to prove he's right.

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/silent-majority-supports-goal-of-zero-covid-1.4428981

I just ignore him now. He is just above a phd student in terms of status and as regards qualifications he might as well have a degree in gardening given the relevance to the topic.

Worztron · 07-12-2020 08:21AM

Ghost Train wrote: »

No the covid tests only indicate when a person is currently infected. An antibody test could be used to test is they previously had it and now have antibodies as a result. But the PCR and antigen tests are for diagnosing current infections that might be transmissible

Ok, thanks, GT.

Worztron · 07-12-2020 08:21AM

zerosugarbuzz wrote: »

No. The test would find a minuscule amount of Covid and they would be diagnosed as currently having Covid. Go figure.

Thank you, zerosugarbuzz.

plodder · 07-12-2020 09:00AM

is_that_so wrote: »

Tomas Ryan - pretty much the same article that he's been doing for months, now enlisting the "silent majority", democracy and a liberal use of statistics to prove he's right.

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/silent-majority-supports-goal-of-zero-covid-1.4428981

All very well to suggest forced quarantine for people arriving at airports, but still no idea for how to deal with lorry drivers, or other essential travelers.

The other points are just aspirational - do the things we're already doing, but better, or vague things like "hygiene and ventilation advice". It reads a bit like an election manifesto.

old_aussie · 07-12-2020 09:01AM

Coronavirus Russia: Model films morgue piled high with bodies.

https://www.news.com.au/world/europe/coronavirus-russia-model-films-morgue-piled-high-with-bodies-video/news-story/f12e1ba83e0fa5515b3f80de3ebdcf5d

Her video comes after a former Russian government statistician alleged that the daily death toll figures in the country are “entirely false”.

Many officials are denying health workers – like Mr Kagarlitskaya – have died after contracting coronavirus to avoid making compensation payments of 2.7 million roubles

Putin and Xi Jinping, the Lying Butcher of China have been bed partners.

Both will lie to the world and will continue to lie to the world as long as they are in power.

Biggest wet market coming soon to China.

Nermal · 07-12-2020 09:05AM

is_that_so wrote: »

Tomas Ryan - pretty much the same article that he's been doing for months, now enlisting the "silent majority", democracy and a liberal use of statistics to prove he's right.

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/silent-majority-supports-goal-of-zero-covid-1.4428981

Remarkable how otherwise intelligent people cannot wrap their heads around revealed preferences.

Of course people say the support more restrictions; it sounds like the 'right' thing to say.

Watch what they do, not what they say.

Drumpot · 07-12-2020 09:06AM

caveat emptor wrote: »

I've tried to switch off from this stuff but the situation in us is crazy.

https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1335746658634592258?s=20

What sort of surge do you expect in January? Hard to see how it’s not gonna be fairly sizeable. I think most people are resigned to another lockdown but seeing S Korea numbers really take off I’d be a bit worried. Thanksgiving in USA has also given us a warning on how events where families get together can super size the spread.

I still think optimistically things may be able to go back to relative normalcy in the summer but January may be a bigger shock then some expect as huge complacency might cost us.

Jim_Hodge · 07-12-2020 09:09AM

Widdensushi wrote: »

Fair play, I don't believe you though, a quick look at your 10k posts and no references to children or parenting issues. I believe you manufacturer contacts with long covid and home schooled children to suit your rhetoric.

A poor reflection on society if people have to post all the details of their lives on social media in order to build up trust from anonymous strangers.

ElJeffe · 07-12-2020 09:44AM

old_aussie wrote: »

Coronavirus Russia: Model films morgue piled high with bodies.

https://www.news.com.au/world/europe/coronavirus-russia-model-films-morgue-piled-high-with-bodies-video/news-story/f12e1ba83e0fa5515b3f80de3ebdcf5d

Her video comes after a former Russian government statistician alleged that the daily death toll figures in the country are “entirely false”.

Many officials are denying health workers – like Mr Kagarlitskaya – have died after contracting coronavirus to avoid making compensation payments of 2.7 million roubles

Putin and Xi Jinping, the Lying Butcher of China have been bed partners.

Both will lie to the world and will continue to lie to the world as long as they are in power.

Biggest wet market coming soon to China.

Piled high? Bit of an exaggeration no. It's a morgue with bodies nothing more.

ElJeffe · 07-12-2020 09:48AM

Drumpot wrote: »

What sort of surge do you expect in January? Hard to see how it’s not gonna be fairly sizeable. I think most people are resigned to another lockdown but seeing S Korea numbers really take off I’d be a bit worried. Thanksgiving in USA has also given us a warning on how events where families get together can super size the spread.

I still think optimistically things may be able to go back to relative normalcy in the summer but January may be a bigger shock then some expect as huge complacency might cost us.

Best case scenario for me would be 1000 cases per day but i wouldn't count 3000 per day out by the end of January. We'll be back in lockdown level 5 plus by mid January either way and the same ones out at Xmas parties will be the same ones complaining about their business going bust.

Plumbthedepths · 07-12-2020 09:53AM

ElJeffe wrote: »

Best case scenario for me would be 1000 cases per day but i wouldn't count 3000 per day out by the end of January. We'll be back in lockdown level 5 plus by mid January either way and the same ones out at Xmas parties will be the same ones complaining about their business going bust.

Level 5 plus? 3,000 plus a day. Even McConkey would be embarrassed to use that figure.

Drumpot · 07-12-2020 09:53AM

ElJeffe wrote: »

Best case scenario for me would be 1000 cases per day but i wouldn't count 3000 per day out by the end of January. We'll be back in lockdown level 5 plus by mid January either way and the same ones out at Xmas parties will be the same ones complaining about their business going bust.

Yeh, looking at the numbers It took just under 4 weeks originally to go from circa 300 to our peak in October. That would suggest that maybe by early Jan we could hit that peak (if our numbers level off at 300) again.

Russman · 07-12-2020 10:03AM

ElJeffe wrote: »

Best case scenario for me would be 1000 cases per day but i wouldn't count 3000 per day out by the end of January. We'll be back in lockdown level 5 plus by mid January either way and the same ones out at Xmas parties will be the same ones complaining about their business going bust.

No way on earth they'd let it get to 3,000 cases per day before reintroducing restrictions.

Drumpot · 07-12-2020 10:11AM

Russman wrote: »

No way on earth they'd let it get to 3,000 cases per day before reintroducing restrictions.

Depends really on the impact of Christmas and families gathering and people out socialising.

There are 3 weeks of lower restrictions before many people gather in these settings. We just don’t know if it will continue the kind of rise we saw in Sept/Oct or if Christmas period where everybody gets together will come at the worst time.

wadacrack · 07-12-2020 10:17AM

Many in here admit that hospitals are a problem and that the safety protocal's are not that good but ignore schools. Hospitals are trying to treat infected patients we can't forget. The protocols in schools are very poor and unsafe for parents of kids , teachers etc.

"Healthcare workers, schoolchildren and students are among the groups who have had the highest number of Covid-19 infections, according to new data released to the Irish Independent."

Zebra3 · 07-12-2020 10:20AM

wadacrack wrote: »

Many in here admit that hospitals are a problem and that the safety protocal's are not that good but ignore schools. Hospitals are trying to treat infected patients we can't forget. The protocols in schools are very poor and unsafe for parents of kids , teachers etc.

"Healthcare workers, schoolchildren and students are among the groups who have had the highest number of Covid-19 infections, according to new data released to the Irish Independent."

They should really stop going to the pub.

Eivor · 07-12-2020 10:23AM

Drumpot wrote: »

What sort of surge do you expect in January? Hard to see how it’s not gonna be fairly sizeable. I think most people are resigned to another lockdown but seeing S Korea numbers really take off I’d be a bit worried. Thanksgiving in USA has also given us a warning on how events where families get together can super size the spread.

I still think optimistically things may be able to go back to relative normalcy in the summer but January may be a bigger shock then some expect as huge complacency might cost us.

South Korea had 629 cases yesterday. They have a population of 51 million. In what way is that “taking off?”

Drumpot · 07-12-2020 10:27AM

Eivor wrote: »

South Korea had 629 cases yesterday. They have a population of 51 million. In what way is that “taking off?”

Relative to how they have been handling the virus (which has been exceptional), it’s getting bad.

When one of the best pupils in the class is struggling to keep up their high standards, one would worry more for pupils at a much lower level.

is_that_so · 07-12-2020 10:45AM

Nermal wrote: »

Remarkable how otherwise intelligent people cannot wrap their heads around revealed preferences.

Of course people say the support more restrictions; it sounds like the 'right' thing to say.

Watch what they do, not what they say.

Surveys force you to answer a pre-designated question only. He's using those stats to produce an opinion people never offered.

Russman · 07-12-2020 10:47AM

Drumpot wrote: »

Depends really on the impact of Christmas and families gathering and people out socialising.

There are 3 weeks of lower restrictions before many people gather in these settings. We just don’t know if it will continue the kind of rise we saw in Sept/Oct or if Christmas period where everybody gets together will come at the worst time.

Agreed. What I really meant was that we went into L5 at what, 1,200 cases per day back in October ? Fingers crossed it won't, but if it did get to that level again I can't see the govt not acting before 3,000 daily was reached.

All just depends on how mad, or not, people go for the next month. I sort of hope against hope that there's a big enough incentive not to go bananas, that enough people will be cautious this year. Especially knowing that vaccines are imminent and chances are mid 2021 will start to get back to normal again.

is_that_so · 07-12-2020 10:48AM

Drumpot wrote: »

Relative to how they have been handling the virus (which has been exceptional), it’s getting bad.

When one of the best pupils in the class is struggling to keep up their high standards, one would worry more for pupils at a much lower level.

This assumes that said pupil can shine in the face of a pretty resilient force of nature. It just reminds us that we cannot beat it as it stands.

is_that_so · 07-12-2020 10:51AM

ElJeffe wrote: »

Best case scenario for me would be 1000 cases per day but i wouldn't count 3000 per day out by the end of January. We'll be back in lockdown level 5 plus by mid January either way and the same ones out at Xmas parties will be the same ones complaining about their business going bust.

Has anybody suggested 3000 cases or is this just a number plucked from the air? January should see the start of vaccines, hopefully providing those most at risk with some protection.

Drumpot · 07-12-2020 10:51AM

Russman wrote: »

Agreed. What I really meant was that we went into L5 at what, 1,200 cases per day back in October ? Fingers crossed it won't, but if it did get to that level again I can't see the govt not acting before 3,000 daily was reached.

All just depends on how mad, or not, people go for the next month. I sort of hope against hope that there's a big enough incentive not to go bananas, that enough people will be cautious this year. Especially knowing that vaccines are imminent and chances are mid 2021 will start to get back to normal again.

Agreed. I think generally our authority’s have been more cautious (which I support) and they will act quicker then most if things do jump significantly. I suppose I’m just a little worried that the Christmas period might be a unique time for super spread (at worst time of year/season) that could see a faster explosion we haven’t seen yet.

Hopefully we have seen the worst the virus is gonna hit us, was just curious to what people think on potential numbers.

Paul Tergat · 07-12-2020 11:03AM

I just did a survey for what I am pretty sure is the Worry index or whatever it was labelled and the questions are really open to interpretation and i suspect the answers are open to misuse....

The question was 'how worried are you about contracting covid 19 coronavirus?" - scale of 1-5, 5 being very worried, 1 being not worried at all. I answered 1, not because of my views on the cantagious nature of the virus but moreso because I am not going out other than to collect shopping and I am avoiding family etc and don't have a circle so to speak of, WFH, baby not in creche / wife not working and on mat leave at the mo. My chances of getting it are practically nil. However, that answer can quite easily be construed as a lax attittuve to covid generally and that my answer on that can be seen as well the virus is nota big threat, public not cautious enough etc.

This kind of thing really annoys me, particularly where it is likely being used to shape decision making that affects the millions of people in this country, all because a question is not concise and is left open to interpretation.

Drumpot · 07-12-2020 11:05AM

is_that_so wrote: »

This assumes that said pupil can shine in the face of a pretty resilient force of nature. It just reminds us that we cannot beat it as it stands.

What do you think is most likely?

Numbers less then the worst daily in October , even or more? Honestly I don’t know but I’d be pleasantly surprised if it ended up less.

It feels a bit like I’m back in February when Nobody took this seriously (I did) and it was inevitable that the virus was coming only this time people know numbers will rise but don’t care once shops, pubs and family gatherings can open/happen. Maybe numbers won’t jump too much but it seems hard to understand how this won’t be the case when you look at what we know about the environments the virus loves to spread.

yourdeadwright · 07-12-2020 11:08AM

Government in my opinion made a huge mistake opening pubs and restaurants,
The spread in the Christmas period was going to rise even in level 5 ,
January will be an absolute sh*t show ,

Drumpot · 07-12-2020 11:10AM

Paul Tergat wrote: »

I just did a survey for what I am pretty sure is the Worry index or whatever it was labelled and the questions are really open to interpretation and i suspect the answers are open to misuse....

The question was 'how worried are you about contracting covid 19 coronavirus?" - scale of 1-5, 5 being very worried, 1 being not worried at all. I answered 1, not because of my views on the cantagious nature of the virus but moreso because I am not going out other than to collect shopping and I am avoiding family etc and don't have a circle so to speak of, WFH, baby not in creche / wife not working and on mat leave at the mo. My chances of getting it are practically nil. However, that answer can quite easily be construed as a lax attittuve to covid generally and that my answer on that can be seen as well the virus is nota big threat, public not cautious enough etc.

This kind of thing really annoys me, particularly where it is likely being used to shape decision making that affects the millions of people in this country, all because a question is not concise and is left open to interpretation.

Fear is a technique often used by governments/authorities because they are bad at communicating in a way that resonates with the public. Unfortunately the public do act like children sometimes which reinforces the belief that fear methods used are gonna be most effective .

I’m not afraid of catching COVID. I’m not afraid of what might happen in January if things get hairy. I’m taking steps to limit my exposure to the virus and doing what I can do to manage the virus in my life.

This includes not getting absorbed in all the hysterical media stuff and RTE news that upsets people. Most of these are terrible sources for a balanced view on the state of events.

I think of each week like I’ve credits to use in terms of risk options. The more credits I use (going to shops or work appointments) the more my risk increases. I’m not scared, just very aware and reflective of the decisions I make.

ednwireland · 07-12-2020 11:10AM

Paul Tergat wrote: »

I just did a survey for what I am pretty sure is the Worry index or whatever it was labelled and the questions are really open to interpretation and i suspect the answers are open to misuse....

Surveys are always loaded to get the answer you want

Covid 19 Part XXIX-85,394 ROI(2,200 deaths) 62,723 NI (1,240 deaths) (26/12) Read OP

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