Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

PropQueries · 02-12-2020 6:41pm

Graham wrote: »

Probably not enough of either in a short enough timespan to make the blindest bit of difference to the property market.

Well, there were c. 30,000 deaths last year. After new builds, probate sales are the biggest part of the supply of housing re-entering the market each year and will be increasing every year going forward. I'm surprised that there's not more attention or research put into it. They are probably the most important from a buyers perspective as they would be mostly located in prime locations IMO

Cyrus · 02-12-2020 6:49pm

PropQueries wrote: »

Well, there were c. 30,000 deaths last year. After new builds, probate sales are the biggest part of the supply of housing re-entering the market each year and will be increasing every year going forward. I'm surprised that there's not more attention or research put into it. They are probably the most important from a buyers perspective as they would be mostly located in prime locations IMO

Is our population shrinking ?

And why would they mostly be located in prime locations ?

JimmyVik · 02-12-2020 6:52pm

PropQueries wrote: »

Well, there were c. 30,000 deaths last year. After new builds, probate sales are the biggest part of the supply of housing re-entering the market each year and will be increasing every year going forward. I'm surprised that there's not more attention or research put into it. They are probably the most important from a buyers perspective as they would be mostly located in prime locations IMO

A neighbor died 3 years ago. Nice big house. his son in his 40s and his 2 daughters in their 30s, one with a husband, were living with him. All had emigrated and come back over the years.
The married daughter ended up buying the rest of them out and they moved out, presumably to two separate dwellings.

Another neighbors wife died last year. They have 2 sons and a daughter in their late 30s living in the house with the father now, who is very sick now and probably hasnt too long left. I assume something similar will happen there. None are married so they might just sell the house and scatter.

People dying can have different results on the property market.

Graham · 02-12-2020 7:00pm

PropQueries wrote: »

Well, there were c. 30,000 deaths last year. After new builds, probate sales are the biggest part of the supply of housing re-entering the market each year and will be increasing every year going forward. I'm surprised that there's not more attention or research put into it. They are probably the most important from a buyers perspective as they would be mostly located in prime locations IMO

huh

Our death rates are going to increase every year, permanently?

People in prime locations are more likely to die?

I would assume death rates last year were largely the same as every other year. I'd also assume we'll keep making new people to replace those that have passed.

PropQueries · 02-12-2020 7:02pm

Cyrus wrote: »

Is our population shrinking ?

And why would they mostly be located in prime locations ?

Well, the central bank last December put the demand for new build housing at 18,000 each year between 2020 and 2030 due to natural population growth so the population is not increasing at the levels some people appear to suggest. As you know, I think that's a significant over-estimate of the level of demand for new build homes.

In relation to prime locations, I would assume cities and towns have grown outwards and not inwards over the years. Therefore, the people who bought all those houses in the estates decades ago that were basically considered another town at the time e.g. Cabra etc. are now considered prime locations as they die off.

PropQueries · 02-12-2020 7:09pm

Graham wrote: »

huh

Our death rates are going to increase every year, permanently?

People in prime locations are more likely to die?

I would assume death rates last year were largely the same as every other year. I'd also assume we'll keep making new people to replace those that have passed.

According to the Irish Times last month for 2019:

"Irish birth rate continues to fall amid sustained increase in deaths"

Link to article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/social-affairs/irish-birth-rate-continues-to-fall-amid-sustained-increase-in-deaths-1.4391685?

Timing belt · 02-12-2020 7:12pm

PropQueries wrote: »

According to the Irish Times last month for 2019:

"Irish birth rate continues to fall amid sustained increase in deaths"

Link to article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/social-affairs/irish-birth-rate-continues-to-fall-amid-sustained-increase-in-deaths-1.4391685?

According to article population grew by 27k in 2019. This is just looking at registered births v registered deaths.

PropQueries · 02-12-2020 7:20pm

Timing belt wrote: »

According to article population grew by 27k in 2019. This is just looking at registered births v registered deaths.

And we built c. 21,000 residential units in 2019. At an average of 3 persons to a home (one couple and one child), that's enough new built housing for c. 60,000 persons.

Marcusm · 02-12-2020 7:24pm

PropQueries wrote: »

Well, the central bank last December put the demand for new build housing at 18,000 each year between 2020 and 2030 due to natural population growth so the population is not increasing at the levels some people appear to suggest. As you know, I think that's a significant over-estimate of the level of demand for new build homes.

In relation to prime locations, I would assume cities and towns have grown outwards and not inwards over the years. Therefore, the people who bought all those houses in the estates decades ago that were basically considered another town at the time e.g. Cabra etc. are now considered prime locations as they die off.

Cabra’s got the potential to be nice but the world would have to spin on another axis before it was what would be regarded as a prime location, ie one the most desirable, most highly sought after locations in the city.

hometruths · 02-12-2020 7:29pm

PropQueries wrote: »

In relation to prime locations, I would assume cities and towns have grown outwards and not inwards over the years. Therefore, the people who bought all those houses in the estates decades ago that were basically considered another town at the time e.g. Cabra etc. are now considered prime locations as they die off.

Indeed. It's just common sense to assume that the age demographic of the priciest locations is higher than that of the cheapest.

PropQueries · 02-12-2020 7:30pm

Marcusm wrote: »

Cabra’s got the potential to be nice but the world would have to spin on another axis before it was what would be regarded as a prime location, ie one the most desirable, most highly sought after locations in the city.

Just replace Cabra with similar era estates on the south side. Same principle applies IMO

PropQueries · 02-12-2020 7:32pm

schmittel wrote: »

Indeed. It's just common sense to assume that the age demographic of the priciest locations is higher than that of the cheapest.

Yes, and as all these homes begin to re-enter supply in significant numbers, they make all those new build homes located in the far off suburbs looks like less and less value by the year.

Timing belt · 02-12-2020 7:35pm

PropQueries wrote: »

And we built c. 21,000 residential units in 2019. At an average of 3 persons to a home (one couple and one child), that's enough new built housing for c. 60,000 persons.

That is still short based on the following cso data.
https://www.cso.ie/en/csolatestnews/pressreleases/2019pressreleases/pressstatementpopulationandmigrationestimatesapril2019/

Not to even mention the under supply from prior years

PropQueries · 02-12-2020 7:53pm

Timing belt wrote: »

That is still short based on the following cso data.
https://www.cso.ie/en/csolatestnews/pressreleases/2019pressreleases/pressstatementpopulationandmigrationestimatesapril2019/

Not to even mention the under supply from prior years

That's the problem in relation to the projections for housing demand going forward. It's primarily based on net inward migration remaining at 2018 levels of c. 30,000 per year out to 2030.

That will only happen if we continue to create jobs at such levels each year between 2020 and 2030 to encourage in such a level of inward net migration. Is that possible? I don't believe so. The state can't afford to keep hiring at significant levels. I don't believe multinationals will continue adding jobs at these type of levels either.

Basically most of the future projections on demand for housing are based on what side of the debate one is on in relation to continued net inward migration IMO

IMO there may be net outward migration over the coming years instead of net inward migration and that would turn all projections for housing demand on their head IMO

You already know my belief on the under-supply from previous years i.e. there was none.

fliball123 · 02-12-2020 8:01pm

PropQueries wrote: »

And we built c. 21,000 residential units in 2019. At an average of 3 persons to a home (one couple and one child), that's enough new built housing for c. 60,000 persons.

how many more times does this have to be pointed out to you that at no point in the last 100 has our birth rate been outpaced by our death rate

There is deaths and birth rates since they were recorded in the country
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_Republic_of_Ireland

Theres Q1 2020
https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-vs/vitalstatisticsfirstquarter2020/

Theres Q2 2020
https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-vs/vitalstatisticssecondquarter2020/

PropQueries · 02-12-2020 8:02pm

fliball123 wrote: »

how many more times does this have to be pointed out to you that at no point in the last 100 has our birth rate been outpaced by our death rate

There is deaths and birth rates since they were recorded in the country
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_Republic_of_Ireland

Theres Q1 2020
https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-vs/vitalstatisticsfirstquarter2020/

Theres Q2 2020
https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-vs/vitalstatisticssecondquarter2020/

Never said death rate outpaced birth rate. Every time a house enters probate it's likely that the house occupied one person at that time. Once that person passes away and it re-enters the market, it is generally re-occupied by an average of 3 persons (a couple and one child). Probate sales matter more than people realise.

fliball123 · 02-12-2020 8:05pm

PropQueries wrote: »

That's the problem in relation to the projections for housing demand going forward. It's primarily based on net inward migration remaining at 2018 levels of c. 30,000 per year out to 2030.

That will only happen if we continue to create jobs at such levels each year between 2020 and 2030 to encourage in such a level of inward net migration. Is that possible? I don't believe so. The state can't afford to keep hiring at significant levels. I don't believe multinationals will continue adding jobs at these type of levels either.

Basically most of the future projections on demand for housing are based on what side of the debate one is on in relation to continued net inward migration IMO

IMO there may be net outward migration over the coming years instead of net inward migration and that would turn all projections for housing demand on their head IMO

You already know my belief on the under-supply from previous years i.e. there was none.

That is all it is, your belief as the facts, figures and stats would suggest that your belief is Baloney

fliball123 · 02-12-2020 8:09pm

PropQueries wrote: »

Never said death rate outpaced birth rate. Every time a house enters probate it's likely that the house occupied one person at that time. Once that person passes away and it re-enters the market, it is generally re-occupied by 3 persons (a couple and one child). Probate sales matter more than people realise.

And I have put up the natural increase year on year for the last 100 odd years and there are in the region of the 10s of 1000s of births over deaths and the population is going up year on year. Even this year with all the corona related deaths, births for the first 2 quarters outpaced deaths. If you cant see that we need more housing then there is no helping you. Remember that house would of housed 3 people in your amazing 3 person occupies a home at one stage as well. So its a zero sum game

thefridge2006 · 02-12-2020 8:14pm

rks wrote: »

All the rentals have disappeared. Rents are going up again.

Same with property prices, they are on the up and there's hardly any good properties to buy.

Those who were waiting for the crash or even good discounts will be really disappointed.

Is that so?????

How much are you trying to rent/ sell your property for RSK?

Timing belt · 02-12-2020 8:28pm

PropQueries wrote: »

That's the problem in relation to the projections for housing demand going forward. It's primarily based on net inward migration remaining at 2018 levels of c. 30,000 per year out to 2030.

That will only happen if we continue to create jobs at such levels each year between 2020 and 2030 to encourage in such a level of inward net migration. Is that possible? I don't believe so. The state can't afford to keep hiring at significant levels. I don't believe multinationals will continue adding jobs at these type of levels either.

Basically most of the future projections on demand for housing are based on what side of the debate one is on in relation to continued net inward migration IMO

IMO there may be net outward migration over the coming years instead of net inward migration and that would turn all projections for housing demand on their head IMO

You already know my belief on the under-supply from previous years i.e. there was none.

Did you ever consider that these immigrants help create jobs for Irish people. The majority all have 3rd level education and in employment and adding to the countries economy. I personally think we would see much higher immigration if there wasn’t such a housing shortage and crazy rents. Lack of housing was one of the main factors in a smaller % share of companies that migrated with Brexit.

Cyrus · 02-12-2020 8:35pm

PropQueries wrote: »

Yes, and as all these homes begin to re-enter supply in significant numbers, they make all those new build homes located in the far off suburbs looks like less and less value by the year.

Which is it ? That people will leave the cities in their droves ? Or that demand for locations close to the City centre will strengthen and further out suburbs will weaken ? I’m not sure what tack you are taking today .

Will dalkey and Killiney nose dive due to the fact they are out from the city ?

Will people flock to buy old draughty poorly maintained exectutor sale houses that need 100s of thousands spend on them ? Ignoring new builds ?

You change the angle of attack so much it’s hard to keep up .

enricoh · 02-12-2020 9:26pm

Timing belt wrote: »

Did you ever consider that these immigrants help create jobs for Irish people. The majority all have 3rd level education and in employment and adding to the countries economy. I personally think we would see much higher immigration if there wasn’t such a housing shortage and crazy rents. Lack of housing was one of the main factors in a smaller % share of companies that migrated with Brexit.

They are certainly creating extra jobs for our housing departments anyway, degrees or no degrees.
And they'll sustain the 'housing crisis'

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.independent.ie/opinion/columnists/david-quinn/huge-scale-of-immigration-is-making-our-housing-crisis-worse-35498057.html
Last year, I decided to ask the Department of Social Protection what percentage of rent supplement was paid out to non-Irish EU nationals, and non-EU nationals.

As at February of last year, the figure was 35pc. This is a remarkable total. Remember, 17pc of the population is "foreign-born", so immigrants are over-represented in the figures by two to one.

Timing belt · 02-12-2020 10:01pm

enricoh wrote: »

They are certainly creating extra jobs for our housing departments anyway, degrees or no degrees.
And they'll sustain the 'housing crisis'

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.independent.ie/opinion/columnists/david-quinn/huge-scale-of-immigration-is-making-our-housing-crisis-worse-35498057.html
Last year, I decided to ask the Department of Social Protection what percentage of rent supplement was paid out to non-Irish EU nationals, and non-EU nationals.

As at February of last year, the figure was 35pc. This is a remarkable total. Remember, 17pc of the population is "foreign-born", so immigrants are over-represented in the figures by two to one.

With so many Irish living abroad and returning with families the percentage of ‘foreign born’ will always be higher that’s not to say they are not irish.

02-12-2020 10:07pm

enricoh wrote: »

. Remember, 17pc of the population is "foreign-born", so immigrants are over-represented in the figures by two to one.

I'm foreign born but I'm not an immigrant.

three putt · 02-12-2020 10:17pm

PropQueries wrote: »

But, yes, Covid and WFH have accelerated trends that are impacting the property market that might have taken up to 10 years beforehand into a few short months.

You have previously predicted 70+ percent declines in property prices in the next 10 years. Does this now mean that you now expect these 70+ percent declines in a "few short months"? Given the Covid crisis kicked off back in March, how much longer do we have to wait for the 70+% declines?

PropQueries · 02-12-2020 10:25pm

three putt wrote: »

You have previously predicted 70+ percent declines in property prices in the next 10 years. Does this now mean that you now expect these 70+ percent declines in a "few short months"? Given the Covid crisis kicked off back in March, how much longer do we have to wait for the 70+% declines?

No. But I may reduce the timeframe once the details of the new OECD tax reforms etc. become clearer, how fast Biden will try to encourage pharmaceutical companies etc. back to the states to discourage another Trump in 4 years time and then I’ll have to see if all that chatter about interest rates rising much higher and faster than many currently predict comes true in the next 12 to 24 months.

enricoh · 02-12-2020 10:26pm

Timing belt wrote: »

With so many Irish living abroad and returning with families the percentage of ‘foreign born’ will always be higher that’s not to say they are not irish.

Eh, it's non Irish eu and non eu nationals -

Last year, I decided to ask the Department of Social Protection what percentage of rent supplement was paid out to non-Irish EU nationals, and non-EU nationals.

As at February of last year, the figure was 35pc

Cyrus · 02-12-2020 10:30pm

PropQueries wrote: »

No. But I may reduce the timeframe once the details of the new OECD tax reforms etc. become clearer, how fast Biden will try to encourage pharmaceutical companies etc. back to the states to discourage another Trump in 4 years time and then I’ll have to see if all that chatter about interest rates rising much higher and faster than many currently predict comes true in the next 12 to 24 months.

You’ve already reduced it haven’t you ? You recently said 50 percent in next two years .

Timing belt · 02-12-2020 10:46pm

enricoh wrote: »

Eh, it's non Irish eu and non eu nationals -

Last year, I decided to ask the Department of Social Protection what percentage of rent supplement was paid out to non-Irish EU nationals, and non-EU nationals.

As at February of last year, the figure was 35pc

I was replying to your 17% figure you quoted in previous post which was based on ‘foreign born’ and stating the simple fact that a majority of these would be kids with irish passports since birth but were not born in Ireland as parents immigrated and returned once they had kids which is very common.

PropQueries · 02-12-2020 10:50pm

Cyrus wrote: »

You’ve already reduced it haven’t you ? You recently said 50 percent in next two years .

Definitely 50% in the next two years. And the Big Bang that causes that. When it becomes abundantly clear that the demand/supply problem never existed. OECD tax reforms, Biden and rising interest rates will just bring the few remaining non-believers into the fold towards the end IMO

Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

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