Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

JimmyVik

TheSheriff wrote: »

I was sure back in march we would see 5-10% drops, as a buyer, I eagerly awaited such drops.

I am now fully able to state that was wrong (the 10% at least), I don't see it happening anymore. I see stagnation in the Dublin market.

Others will just tell you it'll happen over the next ten years, and keep repeating the same mantra and theories.

People should buy when it suits them, not when trying to time the market.

Much the same experience myself

Villa05

TheSheriff wrote:

They have all put away serious money since all of this started; those who were planning on getting married have ditched the wedding in favour of a house. Those who were renting and quite content to rent now want a house with a garden...

What salary scales are we talking about here and is it exclusive to couples on those salaries.
How have you got on yourself, any luck finding a place, price movements etc

Wanderer78 wrote:

lending restrictions only truly apply to those that cant afford it

That's half the population probably greater in the FTB demographic

TheSheriff wrote:

Agree, the draw down data is all that matters.

Not really as approval in principle allows you to bid enabling you to drive up price for the eventual "winner"

So I suspect banks are granting aip to covid effected industry, but putting obstacles in place should there bid win,

Villa05

mcsean2163 wrote:

I'd add peak oil, Iran and dollar inflation to the list.

I'll add the sustainability of current prices as the government will need to subsidise more people's housing as the k shaped recovery will see greater unemployment as lower paid workers loose there jobs

woejus

Demand outstrips supply of €1m-plus Dublin homes

50+ €1,000,000 plus homes sold in Dublin by DNG alone.

"This has probably been the best year I’ve had since 1975"


Looks like we're heading straight for that 75% fall in prices in SoCoDu alright... :pac:

Hubertj

woejus wrote: »

Demand outstrips supply of €1m-plus Dublin homes

50+ €1,000,000 plus homes sold in Dublin by DNG alone.

"This has probably been the best year I’ve had since 1975"


Looks like we're heading straight for that 75% fall in prices in SoCoDu alright... :pac:

question for those type of houses would be the % difference, if any, between original asking price and the sold price.
If a €2M house sells for €1.5M......

PropQueries

woejus wrote: »

Demand outstrips supply of €1m-plus Dublin homes

50+ €1,000,000 plus homes sold in Dublin by DNG alone.

"This has probably been the best year I’ve had since 1975"


Looks like we're heading straight for that 75% fall in prices in SoCoDu alright... :pac:

Well by December in 2019, 715 properties worth €1 million or more had already been sold in Ireland. Does anyone have information on the comparable figure for this year?

JimmyVik

Hubertj wrote: »

question for those type of houses would be the % difference, if any, between original asking price and the sold price.
If a €2M house sells for €1.5M......

I worked in big data. Among all of the various types of company that required our services were estate agents.
I remember being amazed that houses sold for 1 to 5M always seemed to sell below the asking prices by a huge percentage. Up to 25% below the asking prices. I think that when you are talking that kind of money for a house sale the asking price is very rough. Buyers and sellers probably know that anyway and just play the game.

awec

PropQueries wrote: »

Well by December in 2019, 715 properties worth €1 million or more had already been sold in Ireland. Does anyone have information on the comparable figure for this year?

638 on the PPR right now that are at least 1million in 2020.

However, some of these records are for multiple properties which skews it a bit.

JimmyVik

PropQueries wrote: »

Well by December in 2019, 715 properties worth €1 million or more had already been sold in Ireland. Does anyone have information on the comparable figure for this year?

You are like the duracell bunny

You keep going and going and going
Fun to watch tbh.

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

But if there were 21k homes for sale at the start of the year and transactions are down and construction didn't fall off a cliff, net inward migration must be well down on 2019 levels and people are still dying (non-covid related probate sales), how can that translate into less supply?

In other words, if units weren't selling this year but supply coming on stream is the same as last year, where have all the houses on MyHome gone as according to the transaction statistics, they definitely weren't sold?

Also, according to TheJournal.ie in July "a number of mortgage applicants who had received approval before the Covid-19 crisis have had this approval pulled".

Is the increase in approvals reported in October, in many cases, just approvals that were pulled a few months back being re-approved?

Could be a number of reasons, I pointed out to you painstakingly so over and over that we have a cohort (a very high cohort) of the population in the 25 to 40 year old category they want somewhere to live and this % is much higher than the over 65s who you kept saying but all of their houses will come on the market once they pop their clogs . The 2 other cohorts that is taking up supply are the government and REITS. Ireland is still giving a good ROI for rentals and we have a very high house waiting list.

tastyt

Brother works in a brokerage , received notice today from two banks that they be bringing back LTI exceptions from 7th of December so another reason prices probably won’t be falling

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

Well by December in 2019, 715 properties worth €1 million or more had already been sold in Ireland. Does anyone have information on the comparable figure for this year?

surely even you would concede that if the number sold this year is in any way comparable to what sold last year then it flys in the face of almost everything you have been posting about.

the market was closed down for a number of months as well.

PropQueries

Cyrus wrote: »

surely even you would concede that if the number sold this year is in any way comparable to what sold last year then it flys in the face of almost everything you have been posting about.

the market was closed down for a number of months as well.

Fully agree with that point. But if the media are trumpeting 50 sales in South Dublin and another estate agent saying he sold 4 houses in Howth/Sutton which meant he had his best year since 1975 makes me be a bit skeptical of the spin they're putting out.

Does anyone have an idea of the average number of banks a person applies to when seeking a mortgage. This would put some perspective on the approval numbers put out by the BPFI and the likely demand coming down the track IMO

Idbatterim

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/homebuyers-saving-for-deposits-during-pandemic-and-70-plan-to-buy-in-2021-survey-finds-1.4426445

Prospective homebuyers have mostly been unaffected by the economic impact of Covid-19, according to a survey by MyHome.ie.

Some 58 per cent of would-be property buyers have been able to save more money for a deposit since the advent of the pandemic than they would otherwise have done, the survey of 2,233 people found.

Sentiment regarding house prices has shifted significantly since the summer, MyHome.ie said. In May, 68 per cent of prospective homebuyers predicted prices over the next year would fall by more than 5 per cent. Only 22 per cent think this will happen now.

More than seven in 10 prospective buyers are planning on purchasing a property in the next year.

But housing supply is still their most pressing concern, with 42 per cent saying that an increase in available stock would encourage them to buy a property now.

The survey also found that about three-quarters of respondents – 76 per cent – believe the Government could do more to help the property sector. This figure is unchanged since August.

Covid has had an effect, however, on the way in which people plan for home life, with 46 per cent saying they will make sure their home has an office.

“These survey findings show us that prospective homebuyers are still largely insulated from the economic effect of Covid-19, but the virus has still had a significant effect on the sector,” said Angela Keegan of MyHome.ie, which is owned by The Irish Times.“Supply issues are still a huge concern due to the suspension of construction activity during the first lockdown,” she said.

Ms Keegan said that the earlier a Covid-19 vaccine is approved and distributed, the better for the market.

“Once the economy gets back up and running we will hopefully see an increase in construction activity which would redress the balance between supply and demand.

“Our analysis shows that stock levels are down by 27 per cent year-on-year, which is particularly concerning. We need this to be addressed.”

HOWEVER in the shortish to medium term...

€8.9bn hole in public finances as second lockdown hits tax take

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/8-9bn-hole-in-public-finances-as-second-lockdown-hits-tax-take-1.4425681?mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw-origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fbusiness%2Feconomy%2F8-9bn-hole-in-public-finances-as-second-lockdown-hits-tax-take-1.4425681

there is just insane demand, home ownership will now be more important than ever for many. Being able to save extra thousands, has probably lead to an even bigger surge in those being able to afford a home or will be able to do shortly... covid has made it a lot easier, if they werent disciplined with spending, but otherwise would be ok to buy after some saving or extra effort with saving...

three putt

awec wrote: »

638 on the PPR right now that are at least 1million in 2020.

However, some of these records are for multiple properties which skews it a bit.

Out of interest, do you include or exclude VAT for new builds when getting this data?

Villa05

Cyrus wrote:

And you believe Biden will do more to repatriate American jobs than trump?

It does have logic too it, steal the thunder of the candidate that got the 2nd highest vote ever in an American presidential election.
The so called rust belt decides who is president after all

woejus wrote:

50+ €1,000,000 plus homes sold in Dublin by DNG alone.

Is it any wonder when the state is shopping in that price bracket for social housing. Think of that every time you look at the deductions in your payslip, while you work and save your ass off to try and get your own housing

PropQueries

awec wrote: »

638 on the PPR right now that are at least 1million in 2020.

However, some of these records are for multiple properties which skews it a bit.

Thanks. Would you have a breakdown by quarter? If many were recorded as sold in the first quarter, that would mean many would have been sale agreed from Q4 2019.

This would give some perspective on how Covid has impacted on the €1million+ market post covid IMO

Cyrus

Villa05 wrote: »

Is it any wonder when the state is shopping in that price bracket for social housing. Think of that every time you look at the deductions in your payslip, while you work and save your ass off to try and get your own housing

how many 1m plus homes have the state purchased for social housing?

PropQueries

Ah. Just figured out how some here get access to this PPR data in excel format on their website

Ok.

In the year to 27/11/2019, 16,176 properties were recorded as sold in Dublin on the PPR.

In the year to 27/11/2020, 11,693 properties are recorded as sold in Dublin on the PPR.

Construction levels and potential probate sales are at similar levels to 2019 i.e. additional housing supply entering the market is basically the same as the levels in 2019, even if it's not currently being advertised.

I have this funny feeling that Covid has been a godsend to EAs in covering up the lack of demand relative to supply.

Villa05

PropQueries wrote:

Ah. Just figured out how some here get access to this PPR data in excel format on their website

There is no stopping you now

Good stuff

woejus

JimmyVik wrote: »

I worked in big data. Among all of the various types of company that required our services were estate agents.
I remember being amazed that houses sold for 1 to 5M always seemed to sell below the asking prices by a huge percentage. Up to 25% below the asking prices. I think that when you are talking that kind of money for a house sale the asking price is very rough. Buyers and sellers probably know that anyway and just play the game.

This is exactly it.

There's many stressed out people on this thread, fighting through the noise, asking questions like "if I have 50k saved, can I buy this two bed for €250k". This is housing as a necessity, somewhere to put your kids.

People buying €2m+ houses - they already have a house, and are more looking for a "positional good" type asset, prices here can be highly subjective and "a game" as you correctly say.

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

Thanks. Would you have a breakdown by quarter? If many were recorded as sold in the first quarter, that would mean many would have been sale agreed from Q4 2019.

This would give some perspective on how Covid has impacted on the €1million+ market post covid IMO

its actually a nighmare trying to get decent data from the PPR, you need to strip out all of the multiple unit sales etc, which is cumbersome.

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

Ah. Just figured out how some here get access to this PPR data in excel format on their website

Ok.

In the year to 27/11/2019, 16,176 properties were recorded as sold in Dublin on the PPR.

In the year to 27/11/2020, 11,693 properties are recorded as sold in Dublin on the PPR.

Construction levels and potential probate sales are at similar levels to 2019 i.e. additional housing supply entering the market is basically the same as the levels in 2019, even if it's not currently being advertised.

I have this funny feeling that Covid has been a godsend to EAs in covering up the lack of demand relative to supply.

im sure you have been told a dozen times that the information to 27/11/2019 is complete but the information to 27/11/2020 isnt, you will have to look at it in 6-8 weeks time.

Timing belt

PropQueries wrote: »

Ah. Just figured out how some here get access to this PPR data in excel format on their website

Ok.

In the year to 27/11/2019, 16,176 properties were recorded as sold in Dublin on the PPR.

In the year to 27/11/2020, 11,693 properties are recorded as sold in Dublin on the PPR.

Construction levels and potential probate sales are at similar levels to 2019 i.e. additional housing supply entering the market is basically the same as the levels in 2019, even if it's not currently being advertised.

I have this funny feeling that Covid has been a godsend to EAs in covering up the lack of demand relative to supply.

The demand is there especially people that are renting. The supply of affordable houses is not when you bring into play desirable locations the supply gets thinner again and the effect of covid has meant that there is a cohort that have been able to save a deposit which has increased the demand. The HTB has then helped push the prices up which gives the EAs room to spin which makes people stretch further to get on the property ladder. Is this sustainable or is just a short term effect before house prices go back to a flat line. At the end of the day unless there is an increase in wages or disposable income then we shouldn’t be seeing a price rise... maybe wfh has provided this increase in disposable income.

PropQueries

Cyrus wrote: »

im sure you have been told a dozen times that the information to 27/11/2019 is complete but the information to 27/11/2020 isnt, you will have to look at it in 6-8 weeks time.

Good point. But the Jan-Feb figures should provide some indication of the level of demand in the months prior to covid.

Jan-Feb 2019: 2423

Jan-Feb 2020: 2274

So, down 149 in Dublin year on year for those two months pre-covid. Hardly evidence of all that pent up demand we were reading about just before covid?

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

Good point. But the Jan-Feb figures should provide some indication of the level of demand in the months prior to covid.

Jan-Feb 2019: 2423

Jan-Feb 2020: 2274

So, down 149 in Dublin year on year for those two months pre-covid. Hardly evidence of all that pent up demand we were reading about just before covid?

indeed, one could also argue that properties that were closing before lock down would have closed later than they should have.

PropQueries

Cyrus wrote: »

indeed, one could also argue that properties that were closing before lock down would have closed later than they should have.

But wouldn't the Jan/Feb figures have closed in January or early February to appear on the PPR in February i.e. before covid was on the radar on this side of the world?

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

Ah. Just figured out how some here get access to this PPR data in excel format on their website

Ok.

In the year to 27/11/2019, 16,176 properties were recorded as sold in Dublin on the PPR.

In the year to 27/11/2020, 11,693 properties are recorded as sold in Dublin on the PPR.

Construction levels and potential probate sales are at similar levels to 2019 i.e. additional housing supply entering the market is basically the same as the levels in 2019, even if it's not currently being advertised.

I have this funny feeling that Covid has been a godsend to EAs in covering up the lack of demand relative to supply.

We still dont know if they managed to build the 20k houses forcast at the start of the year. Already Micky Martin the head honcho of the country has said this target will not be reached. Call me biased but I think I will believe Micky as the fact that we did not reach this target means he will get a kicking for it so why the hell would he lie as apposed to your funny feelings as you have been caught on lies and manipulating stats and who has a hidden agenda.

Also can I just say if a property is not advertised for sale then its not on the supply side of the market (yet). Sorry to burst your little bubble there. Its like saying your wife is there standing on the side of the road so she is available for ride. If its not up for sale then guess what it cant be counted as a property for sale.

lol and now we have the EAs are covering for the supply vs demand paradigm that exists in the country conspiracy theory, surely Sherry Fitzgerald was on the Grassy Knowl when Kennedy got shot. Your getting worse

awec

three putt wrote: »

Out of interest, do you include or exclude VAT for new builds when getting this data?

To be honest I didn't go into it in that much detail. The PPR is useful but also the data is not really normalized.

You need to take every second hand sale that's a value of over 1000000, plus every new build with a value over 865,000 (since these would all have sale values > 1000000).

However, you then need to get rid of the ones where there are multiple properties in one single transaction. This is not straightforward cause there's nothing to indicate this definitively other than the title.

Sometimes, the title will say "100 apartments at x", other times it just says "block x at y", so it's impossible to know.

You would need to do this for both 2019 and 2020 (2020 figures should be complete by around March 21) and then compare.

thefridge2006

TheSheriff wrote: »

Agree, the draw down data is all that matters.

But, there was much fanfare on here a few months back when the news broke that banks were clamping down on approvals due to the pandemic. This appears to now have been reversed.

While draw downs are all that matter I think one could logically assume an increase in approvals will result in an increase in drawn downs.......obviously lots of obstacles to get to draw down, but it means more people in the potential pool of buyers.

No i disagree, banks have nothing to lose by offering as many people approval in principle to keep the show on the road, to keep a buzz about the place.

Its in the draw downs and sales that you'll see the reduction