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COVID-19: Vaccine/antidote and testing procedures Megathread [Mod Warning - Post #1]

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    #7292
    JTMan
    Registered Users Posts: 5,540 ✭✭✭JTMan


    David McRedmond (CEO of An Post) has called for a "sense of urgency" in vaccine distribution in Ireland like there is in the UK. He is correct, we need to hear urgency and a push for speed in the voices of politicians and the HSE. This has to happen quickly to save lives.

    Meanwhile, Dr Adrian Hill one of the leaders of the Oxford Vaccine has said vaccine rollout should see normality return “late-Spring /early-Summer”. A separate report in the UK yesterday said that normality would resume around 4 April 2021 (Easter) in the UK. In the US, those in charge of vaccine distribution say normality will resume in May 2021.

    https://twitter.com/DavidMcredmond/status/1333005304494252034


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    #7293
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    JTMan wrote: »
    David McRedmond (CEO of An Post) has called for a "sense of urgency" in vaccine distribution in Ireland like there is in the UK. He is correct, we need to hear urgency and a push for speed in the voices of politicians and the HSE. This has to happen quickly to save lives.

    Meanwhile, Dr Adrian Hill one of the leaders of the Oxford Vaccine has said vaccine rollout should see normality return “late-Spring /early-Summer”. A separate report in the UK yesterday said that normality would resume around 4 April 2021 (Easter) in the UK. In the US, those in charge of vaccine distribution say normality will resume in May 2021.

    https://twitter.com/DavidMcredmond/status/1333005304494252034

    Germany I think have said September for a return to normality. Canada last week said October.

    I think that the more populist leaders (US and UK most notably), are massively overpromising. It’s not like they don’t have a track record in that regard.


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    #7294
    Marhay70
    Registered Users Posts: 1,914 ✭✭✭Marhay70


    JTMan wrote: »
    David Redmond (CEO of An Post) has called for a "sense of urgency" in vaccine distribution in Ireland like there is in the UK. He is correct, we need to hear urgency and a push for speed in the voices of politicians and the HSE. This has to happen quickly to save lives.

    Meanwhile, Dr Adrian Hill one of the leaders of the Oxford Vaccine. He says vaccine rollout should see normality return “late-Spring /early-Summer”. A separate report in the UK yesterday said that normality would resume around 4 April 2020 (Easter) in the UK. In the US, those in charge of vaccine distribution say normality will resume in May 2020.

    https://twitter.com/DavidMcredmond/status/1333005304494252034

    Saw a different interview with Dr Hill where he was being questioned by a panel and it gave me great confidence to see the ease with which he fielded their questions. There is nothing that dents confidence more than to see an "expert" constantly referring to notes when asked to explain the basics of his brief.


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    #7295
    charlie14
    Registered Users Posts: 14,966 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    hmmm wrote: »
    Even if they have made extensive preparations in the background, at least some of this should have been done in public - the politicians should have led on this.

    Potentially 250,000 people in Ireland could be asked to attend for vaccinations over the next few weeks. I don't think the population realises how quickly this could happen, and with any sudden change you need to prepare people for it particularly when there is so much disinformation being posted on social media about vaccines.


    I would tend to perhaps give them a slight pass on this in that with the lockdown due to be lifted an exact timetable would perhaps induce a sense of careless giddiness in some. But I would certainly expect to details before years end.


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    #7296
    Leftwaffe
    Registered Users Posts: 1,548 ✭✭✭Leftwaffe


    I’m still of the opinion that we will make an absolute balls of this vaccine roll out and will somehow end up being last in the table. The tip of the iceberg is just showing now, wait until people see mass vaccinations in the UK and elsewhere and we’re left listening to Stephen Donnelly tell us how it isn’t possible. It’s only just beginning


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    #7297
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    I seen that Stephen Donnelly said on Newstalk that he does not expect vaccinations to start until early in the new year.

    Pretty much every other country I've seen expects to begin before the end of the year. What's the delay?


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    #7298
    ACitizenErased
    Registered Users Posts: 11,646 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    Hardyn wrote: »
    I seen that Stephen Donnelly said on Newstalk that he does not expect vaccinations to start until early in the new year.

    Pretty much every other country I've seen expects to begin before the end of the year. What's the delay?
    I heard that too. I'm not happy, that's ridiculous.


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    #7299
    CruelSummer
    Registered Users Posts: 2,242 ✭✭✭CruelSummer


    Has the data been published from Pfizer, Moderna and Astrazenca or is it just press releases to date?


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    #7300
    is_that_so
    Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    I heard that too. I'm not happy, that's ridiculous.
    In the context of the dates of our plan being completed that's as early as it can be. There's also no guarantee that all of the ambitious plans in other countries will come to pass as planned or promised. The actual approval date of vaccines will determine when it starts. At most they'll be 3 weeks ahead of us.


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    #7301
    Deeper Blue
    Registered Users Posts: 7,681 ✭✭✭Deeper Blue


    is_that_so wrote: »
    In the context of the dates of our plan being completed that's as early as it can be. There's also no guarantee that all of the ambitious plans in other countries will come to pass as planned or promised. The actual approval date of vaccines will determine when it starts. At most they'll be 3 weeks ahead of us.

    Why shouldn't we be in line with them?

    3 weeks would be a ridiculous delay


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    #7302
    Russman
    Registered Users Posts: 5,865 ✭✭✭Russman


    El Sueño wrote: »
    Why shouldn't we be in line with them?

    3 weeks would be a ridiculous delay

    All EU countries will get their allocations at the same time, that’s been agreed. If the UK are ahead, they’ll be ahead of the whole EU not just us.
    If the tweet shown earlier in the thread is not a wind up, this is a country that wants to put a flag on the vaccine vials - I wouldn’t be paying much heed to what they’re doing tbh.


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    #7303
    stephenjmcd
    Registered Users Posts: 15,210 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    Hardyn wrote: »
    I seen that Stephen Donnelly said on Newstalk that he does not expect vaccinations to start until early in the new year.

    Pretty much every other country I've seen expects to begin before the end of the year. What's the delay?

    They don't really.

    EU are telling member states new year.

    The UK are being the UK and doing their own thing, they don't need to wait for EMA approval.


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    #7304
    Voltex
    Registered Users Posts: 1,580 ✭✭✭Voltex


    El Sueño wrote: »
    Why shouldn't we be in line with them?

    3 weeks would be a ridiculous delay

    Almost everything about the vaccine development, approval and efficacy has so far been off the charts good. The SCM part of the puzzle should be relatively easy.

    Ive seen first hand how well organised and run the testing regime is, so I have full confidence that the distribution of the vaccines will go beyond all expectations.

    Id expect L2/3 through to Easter...then L2 through to summer...and then transition to L1 for autumn and back to normal for next Christmas.


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    #7305
    lbj666
    Registered Users Posts: 2,021 ✭✭✭lbj666


    is_that_so wrote: »
    In the context of the dates of our plan being completed that's as early as it can be. There's also no guarantee that all of the ambitious plans in other countries will come to pass as planned or promised. The actual approval date of vaccines will determine when it starts. At most they'll be 3 weeks ahead of us.

    Except this is costing the ecomony more by the week than the amount of money you could even possibly throw at a vacine programme in that same time


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    #7306
    titan18
    Registered Users Posts: 11,951 ✭✭✭✭titan18


    lbj666 wrote: »
    Except this is costing the ecomony more by the week than the amount of money you could even possibly throw at a vacine programme in that same time

    There's 4 weeks left in the year. The vaccine hasn't even been approved yet, so you need approval and then deliveries to happen in that period before we can even begin a vaccine rollout. To me, that seems extremely unlikely to happen in most EU countries


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    #7307
    noserider
    Registered Users Posts: 167 ✭✭noserider


    Redordeadqwwer wrote: »
    I’m still of the opinion that we will make an absolute balls of this vaccine roll out and will somehow end up being last in the table. The tip of the iceberg is just showing now, wait until people see mass vaccinations in the UK and elsewhere and we’re left listening to Stephen Donnelly tell us how it isn’t possible. It’s only just beginning

    100%. They have managed to develop a vaccine in record time.
    Mean while in Ireland we get a committee together to talk about how we will get it to people.
    Could this shower not have finalised a blueprint for the roll out before now based on all the signs a vaccine was imminent?


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    #7308
    is_that_so
    Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    El Sueño wrote: »
    Why shouldn't we be in line with them?

    3 weeks would be a ridiculous delay
    Well, approval is looking like it may be mid-December anyway so some of those dates are going to look like broken promises.


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    #7309
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    stephenjmcd wrote: »
    They don't really.

    EU are telling member states new year.

    The UK are being the UK and doing their own thing, they don't need to wait for EMA approval.

    I know what you mean. His approach just irked me a bit.


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    #7310
    is_that_so
    Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    lbj666 wrote: »
    Except this is costing the ecomony more by the week than the amount of money you could even possibly throw at a vacine programme in that same time
    Some of which will be clawed back in taxes and which is being financed by EU supports and virtually zero cost money. The ship still needs to be cautiously steered to the calmer waters of vaccine availability.


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    #7311
    AdamD
    Registered Users Posts: 12,513 ✭✭✭✭AdamD


    Voltex wrote: »
    Almost everything about the vaccine development, approval and efficacy has so far been off the charts good. The SCM part of the puzzle should be relatively easy.

    Ive seen first hand how well organised and run the testing regime is, so I have full confidence that the distribution of the vaccines will go beyond all expectations.

    Id expect L2/3 through to Easter...then L2 through to summer...and then transition to L1 for autumn and back to normal for next Christmas.

    Level 2 through all summer would be incredibly disappointing


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    #7312
    is_that_so
    Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    AdamD wrote: »
    Level 2 through all summer would be incredibly disappointing
    I'd agree. A possible Level 4/5 in the New Year for 3 weeks, Level 3 then. By March there should be reasonable numbers vaccinated which should be Level 1/2. After that numbers will dictate whether there's a case for restrictions.


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    #7313
    marno21
    Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 14,373 Mod ✭✭✭✭marno21


    Level 1 by March. Level 0+ soon after with caveats to stop complete pandemonium unfolding and back to full normality then at which time Sam McConkey buys a new laptop to take up tweeting instead :)


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    #7314
    Russman
    Registered Users Posts: 5,865 ✭✭✭Russman


    marno21 wrote: »
    Level 1 by March. Level 0+ soon after with caveats to stop complete pandemonium unfolding and back to full normality then at which time Sam McConkey buys a new laptop to take up tweeting instead :)

    I doubt even the most positive would predict L1 by March tbh. That’s incredibly optimistic. It’ll depend on how quick they can lash out the vaccine(s). Nah, there’s no way, even doing 500k people per month we’d still be way short of where we’d need to be I think.


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    #7315
    Micky 32
    Registered Users Posts: 6,556 ✭✭✭Micky 32


    Russman wrote: »
    I doubt even the most positive would predict L1 by March tbh. That’s incredibly optimistic. It’ll depend on how quick they can lash out the vaccine(s). Nah, there’s no way, even doing 500k people per month we’d still be way short of where we’d need to be I think.


    My prediction ( only an opinion) fairly back to normal Q3 2021.


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    #7316
    St.Spodo
    Registered Users Posts: 1,027 ✭✭✭St.Spodo


    My guess would be level 3 becomes level 2 in April, level 1 at the height of the summer into early autumn and level 0 next October.

    More accessible and more accurate rapid testing will be needed to give music festivals a chance next summer.


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    #7317
    Water John
    Registered Users Posts: 21,254 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    I think we'll all be vaccinated by the end of May if not earlier. Immunity in early June. This will roll out very rapidly once it really starts. Don't mind the UK political nonsense.


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    #7318
    braychelsea
    Users Awaiting Email Confirmation Posts: 55 ✭✭braychelsea


    Russman wrote: »
    I doubt even the most positive would predict L1 by March tbh. That’s incredibly optimistic. It’ll depend on how quick they can lash out the vaccine(s). Nah, there’s no way, even doing 500k people per month we’d still be way short of where we’d need to be I think.

    Stephen Donnelly announced this morning he expects 1 million people to be vaccinated by March. I don't see any argument for not going to level 1 by then, as all the elderly and vulnerable population will be vaccinated.


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    #7319
    Water John
    Registered Users Posts: 21,254 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    braychelsea wrote: »
    Stephen Donnelly announced this morning he expects 1 million people to be vaccinated by March. I don't see any argument for not going to level 1 by then, as all the elderly and vulnerable population will be vaccinated.

    I'd go with Level 3 out further. I'd always push to the end line, maybe May.


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    #7320
    Stark
    Registered Users Posts: 20,964 ✭✭✭✭Stark


    Hopefully the R number will drop with the vaccines. That should allow us to stay in a low level and continue to suppress the spread. With any luck, we might be able to stay in Level 1/2 and have levels reduce to the levels we saw this summer.


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    #7321
    daheff
    Registered Users Posts: 5,853 ✭✭✭daheff


    braychelsea wrote: »
    Stephen Donnelly announced this morning he expects 1 million people to be vaccinated by March. I don't see any argument for not going to level 1 by then, as all the elderly and vulnerable population will be vaccinated.

    1m is only about 20% of the population....so realistically at that rate we're talking Sept/Oct to get to a 70% vaccination rate...being optimistic. Knowing the HSE they'll fck it up and it'll be Sep/Oct 2022 before we get to that level.


    Hopefully he vaccination has a long term benefit, and not just 3-6 months.


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