Covid 19 Part XXIX-85,394 ROI(2,200 deaths) 62,723 NI (1,240 deaths) (26/12) Read OP

jackboy · 29-11-2020 12:34pm

is_that_so wrote: »

We've picked up an awful lot of COVID scientists during this, some may be experts in other areas but extraordinary spoofers on the virus. I'd be inclined to pay more attention to those developing vaccines than the off the top of the head guesswork by someone with lots of letters after their name. TBH this line of yours is quite puzzling, beyond wanting to be right or looking to drop an "I told you so". Approval seems imminent. That means 2-3 vaccines likely available from well before the end of the year in some places.

Approval doesn’t mean that the pandemic is instantly over. Most of the experts agree that it will be at least six months after approval before restrictions will be able to be significantly eased. That best case scenario will only come to pass if the 90% effective press releases are accurate.

Sammy2012 · 29-11-2020 12:44pm

I think everyone needs to do what works for themselves. Both myself and my husband are in our mid 30s with 2 primary school age kids. We won't be doing any of our usual things over Christmas except seeing our families. I want to see my parents and so does he but most of our friends will be sticking to themselves too. Some have parents who have cancer or other conditions. So we will have my family for dinner on Christmas day and we will go to his on Stephens day. It will be quiet after that.

I learned a lesson qbour 6 weeks ago. My friend was a close contact of a confirmed case and I was one of her close contacts. She was the only friend I had seen in weeks. She sent me on her list of close contacts and it was 2 A4 pages long. You can do all the right things and someone can put you at risk. I fully intend to get take aways and enjoy the holiday season but it will be different. And id love all to be back to normal by spring/summer so life can go back to normal. Roll on 2021!

Plumbthedepths · 29-11-2020 12:46pm

jackboy wrote: »

Approval doesn’t mean that the pandemic is instantly over. Most of the experts agree that it will be at least six months after approval before restrictions will be able to be significantly eased. That best case scenario will only come to pass if the 90% effective press releases are accurate.

Considering the annual flu vaccine is circa 70% any Covid vaccine achieving this rate will be effective in ending the current mess.

caveat emptor · 29-11-2020 1:41pm

Cork2021 wrote: »

Caveat, it’s the first time I’ve thanked something you’ve said on boards!
That post has made me happy

That's good. The interview was really good. He is working quite closely with the regulators etc. Explained everything and how different dosing cohorts is normal so that they can hone in on the most effective dosing etc. He seemed to say approval by early December.

His opinion is more believable than most due to his proximity to the process as others have stated.

There were and still are a lot of unknowns regards this virus but we are starting to get through to the other side. False hope is more dangerous than dealing with reality but we all have different coping mechanisms. Saying we'd be out of this by September wasn't credible.

I hate positive and negative bull**** equally. This does not strike me as bull****. I found the reports of the "mistakes" made by that vaccine team not credible earlier in the week. To hear that vaccinologist explain the nuances of the trial and the approval process etc really was interesting.

https://twitter.com/AchillesKap/status/1330839674072555520?s=20

petes · 29-11-2020 1:43pm

jackboy wrote: »

Approval doesn’t mean that the pandemic is instantly over. Most of the experts agree that it will be at least six months after approval before restrictions will be able to be significantly eased. That best case scenario will only come to pass if the 90% effective press releases are accurate.

You've been asked already but seemingly cherry picking what you reply to. Which experts are you referring to?

I see sheep · 29-11-2020 1:47pm

Sammy2012 wrote: »

I think everyone needs to do what works for themselves. Both myself and my husband are in our mid 30s with 2 primary school age kids. We won't be doing any of our usual things over Christmas except seeing our families. I want to see my parents and so does he but most of our friends will be sticking to themselves too. Some have parents who have cancer or other conditions. So we will have my family for dinner on Christmas day and we will go to his on Stephens day. It will be quiet after that.

I learned a lesson qbour 6 weeks ago. My friend was a close contact of a confirmed case and I was one of her close contacts. She was the only friend I had seen in weeks. She sent me on her list of close contacts and it was 2 A4 pages long. You can do all the right things and someone can put you at risk. I fully intend to get take aways and enjoy the holiday season but it will be different. And id love all to be back to normal by spring/summer so life can go back to normal. Roll on 2021!

Sorry I don't follow about the lesson you learned?

Stheno · 29-11-2020 2:06pm

I see sheep wrote: »

Sorry I don't follow about the lesson you learned?

She assumed her friend that she met was being as careful as she was?

is_that_so · 29-11-2020 2:07pm

Article from Nature on what Iceland did and learned.

The tiny island nation brought huge scientific heft to its attempts to contain and study the coronavirus. Here’s what it learnt.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-03284-3

majcos · 29-11-2020 2:18pm

HSE operations report 28/11

As of 8pm, Covid cases hospitalised 251 (increase from 235)

Letterkenny 44
Tallaght 30
James 29
Vincent’s 21
Mater 20
Beaumont 19

ICU confirmed cases 31 - decrease from 34
Ventilated 17 - decrease from 19
2 deaths in ICU last 24 hours.

Happydays2020 · 29-11-2020 2:25pm

caveat emptor wrote: »

Listening to an Irish professor (Adrian hill) involved in the oxford vaccine on rte1 radio. Said all the stuff about it being less efficacious is bull****. They lowered the first dose to stop people having adverse side effects. That worked and had an unintended consequence. It was more efficacious. 90%! He said spring summer back to normal. If that doesn’t cheer you up I don’t know what will !

Indeed this time next year it will be Tony who?

jackboy · 29-11-2020 2:27pm

petes wrote: »

You've been asked already but seemingly cherry picking what you reply to. Which experts are you referring to?

Tomas Ryan and Anthony Staines are two. There are very very few scientists claiming that the bulk of the restrictions will be able to be lifted in the next six months.

There is agreement that an effective vaccine will end the worst of this but it will take many months to dose enough people.

majcos · 29-11-2020 2:51pm

is_that_so wrote: »

Article from Nature on what Iceland did and learned.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-03284-3

Thanks. Really interesting.

Some of their key findings:

Most common symptoms are muscles aches, headache and cough - not fever. Makes it very hard to distinguish from a common cold without a test.

43% asymptomatic.

Children under 10 half as likely to test positive as people 10 and over.

IFR with very widespread testing in population with median age of 37 and good healthcare is 0.3%. Note that if all 4.9 million people in Ireland were infected, an IFR of 0.3% would equate to 14700 deaths. May be different based on population age, genetics, healthcare system, etc.

91% of people infected have antibodies four months later. Suggestion that antibodies come in two waves. First is short lived plasma cell and second is longer lived response.

A single pair of tourists who tested positive and ignored restrictions caused a bump in numbers with a further increase in cases with that specific clone of virus emerging four weeks later meaning it was lurking and spreading before surging.

Of tourists tested on arrival, 20% who tested negative on first test were positive five days later. Scary for those thinking a single negative test gives a pass to move freely over Christmas.

Thats me · 29-11-2020 3:00pm

is_that_so wrote: »

Article from Nature on what Iceland did and learned.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-03284-3

Found interesting this picture from the article - on some stage transmission in schools and other places disappearing, and they left mainly with unidentified sources and household transmissions (which is also kind of unidentified) - have they stopped tracing or why is that?

c.p.w.g.w · 29-11-2020 3:00pm

So with December coming...

The government have decided to open hospitality and allow household visits for xmas week...The limits on household visits will be ignored come xmas week and the government should be aware of that...

So opening up hospitality is an absolutely ridiculous decision...

I won't be making use of any of the hospitality sector over xmas, but i'll be ignoring the guidelines for the first time on xmas day(we will a mix of 5 households xmas day here)

caveat emptor · 29-11-2020 3:01pm

jackboy wrote: »

Approval doesn’t mean that the pandemic is instantly over. Most of the experts agree that it will be at least six months after approval before restrictions will be able to be significantly eased. That best case scenario will only come to pass if the 90% effective press releases are accurate.

I wouldn't dismiss your concerns outright. Here's some of the points covered. Video of him explaining also. I think it is cause for optimism and everyone knows I don't usually come out saying it's going to grand when there is no evidence of this. We need to make sure we have a plan to hit the ground running with this.

10 sites worldwide already making. (including largest vaccine manufacturer)
The half dose + full dose gives 90% efficacy but also only requires 25% less vaccine to immunise meaning more available.
Results are statistically significant so not a chance finding.
No freezer required to store it
Much more widely available.
The safety of these vaccines is well understood as it is "old" technology
Strong evidence it not only prevents clinical disease but reduces hospitalisations (nobody admitted to hospital in the vaccination group.

https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1330908017378942979?s=20

is_that_so · 29-11-2020 3:03pm

c.p.w.g.w wrote: »

So with December coming...

The government have decided to open hospitality and allow household visits for xmas week...The limits on household visits will be ignored come xmas week and the government should be aware of that...

So opening up hospitality is an absolutely ridiculous decision...

I won't be making use of any of the hospitality sector over xmas, but i'll be ignoring the guidelines for the first time on xmas day(we will a mix of 5 households xmas day here)

Economically it's a needs must thing, however much some people disagree with it. And may you all enjoy the festivities!

29-11-2020 3:04pm

Goldengirl wrote: »

Wisdom . On the Relaxations thread ? That's an oxymoron.

You may not agree with many of the opinions there but that doesn't mean they don't matter or those having them should be sneered at.

c.p.w.g.w · 29-11-2020 3:07pm

is_that_so wrote: »

Economically it's a needs must thing, however much some people disagree with it. And may you all enjoy the festivities!

I agree from an economically standpoint its needed...but then we they go into a lockdown in January the government will lose a whole lot of credibility

is_that_so · 29-11-2020 3:10pm

c.p.w.g.w wrote: »

I agree from an economically standpoint its needed...but then we they go into a lockdown in January the government will lose a whole lot of credibility

Not really. Leo has almost announced it already and a 3 week one is in the latest NPHET letter anyway. If we can get any sort of holiday season out of this plan we'll take that 3 weeks.

29-11-2020 3:11pm

majcos wrote: »

Thanks. Really interesting.

Some of their key findings:

Most common symptoms are muscles aches, headache and cough - not fever. Makes it very hard to distinguish from a common cold without a test.

43% asymptomatic.

Interesting. I woke up on Tuesday with cramps in my stomach. Internally i was fine but to touch my stomach or move in bed was uncomfortable.

I called in sick even though I was WFH that day. As the day progressed I started to get a body temperature and headache.

When I left my room that day and Wednesday I wore a mask around the house(i have filters in mine).

Symptoms eased off by Wednesday morning and were completely gone by Wednesday evening.

Makes me wonder. When you think of all the cases they find in professional athletes, youd wonder how many would have been positive without the regimentive testing.

I didnt feel bad enough to request a test(who wants to have to travel across town to have something shoved down their nose) so you'd have to wonder how many in a similar boat to me may or may not have had it.

majcos · 29-11-2020 3:21pm

Thats me wrote: »

Found interesting this picture from the article - on some stage transmission in schools and other places disappearing, and they left mainly with unidentified sources and household transmissions (which is also kind of unidentified) - have they stopped tracing or why is that?

Sorry. Just realised bars probably don’t go past November 18th so scrap this theory about impact of new restrictions.

Each bar seems to represent one day so it’s only in last few days that social outings have disappeared as source of transmission. Iceland brought new restrictions into effect on November 18th so maybe starting to see effects of those guidelines. Due to relax again in December 1st.

Tighter school restrictions also came in on November 18th but seems the drop in school numbers happened too quick for those restrictions to have had an impact.

Don’t think they have stopped their contact and source tracing but any time restrictions come into place, new infection transmission in public places drop before it will do among families and in homes.

Peercentage of unidentified transmission always existed but probably looks overall to be higher in some of the last few days as transmission in other settings has dropped. Good to see transmission in healthcare settings has dropped too.

ShooterSF · 29-11-2020 3:24pm

c.p.w.g.w wrote: »

So with December coming...

The government have decided to open hospitality and allow household visits for xmas week...The limits on household visits will be ignored come xmas week and the government should be aware of that...

So opening up hospitality is an absolutely ridiculous decision...

I won't be making use of any of the hospitality sector over xmas, but i'll be ignoring the guidelines for the first time on xmas day(we will a mix of 5 households xmas day here)

I'm all for trying to keep this thing under control but from what I can understand of your post your argument comes across at lot like "I'm going to ignore the guidelines that inconvenience me so the government should impose stricter ones that don't inconvenience me (as I'm going to avoid hospitality either ways)"

podgeandrodge · 29-11-2020 3:37pm

c.p.w.g.w wrote: »

I agree from an economically standpoint its needed...but then we they go into a lockdown in January the government will lose a whole lot of credibility

I think nearly everyone is expecting at least a mini lockdown in January to pay for our sins in December.

Deeper Blue · 29-11-2020 3:43pm

jackboy wrote: »

Tomas Ryan and Anthony Staines are two.

Those two have been calling for zero covid for months despite every man and his dog knowing that it's not possible.

Neither has any credibility remaining.

GazzaL · 29-11-2020 3:51pm

podgeandrodge wrote: »

I think nearly everyone is expecting at least a mini lockdown in January to pay for our sins in December.

I'm planning a trip abroad in January for that very reason.

Polar101 · 29-11-2020 4:08pm

Deleted User wrote: »

You may not agree with many of the opinions there but that doesn't mean they don't matter or those having them should be sneered at.

I've always thought ranting and raving is a really poor way of expressing an opinion.

jackboy · 29-11-2020 4:09pm

El Sueño wrote: »

Those two have been calling for zero covid for months despite every man and his dog knowing that it's not possible.

Neither has any credibility remaining.

Zero Covid is possible if we join forces with the north and then control access to the island. Not at all easy but it could be done.

29-11-2020 4:16pm

Polar101 wrote: »

I've always thought ranting and raving is a really poor way of expressing an opinion.

That's your opinion

Deeper Blue · 29-11-2020 4:18pm

jackboy wrote: »

Zero Covid is possible if we join forces with the north and then control access to the island. Not at all easy but it could be done.

In reality it'll never happen though.

Even if it did, by the time all the political red tape was out of the way covid would be long gone.

Plumbthedepths · 29-11-2020 4:26pm

jackboy wrote: »

Zero Covid is possible if we join forces with the north and then control access to the island. Not at all easy but it could be done.

So you see the DUP rowing in behind a Dublin government?
Funniest thing I've read today.
Thankfully the government has no interest in this Zero Covid BS that those two idiots keep pushing.

Covid 19 Part XXIX-85,394 ROI(2,200 deaths) 62,723 NI (1,240 deaths) (26/12) Read OP

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