Covid 19 Part XXIX-85,394 ROI(2,200 deaths) 62,723 NI (1,240 deaths) (26/12) Read OP

ElJeffe

bb1234567 wrote: »

Flare ups in SK, Japan etc get so much coverage considering the scale. There's literally about a dozen people dying in both countries combined at most daily. And they're big countries. It is a fraction of anything the West has seen and I seriously doubt it will ever ever get to the level it has been allowed to here. There's more people dying daily in Europe's tiniest countries like Slovenia than South Korea has seen in the last month

You are of course correct. Asian people are very compliant with rules and regulations. They also have a great sense of social solidarity unlike us here in the west.

fly_agaric

bb1234567 wrote: »

Flare ups in SK, Japan etc get so much coverage considering the scale. There's literally about a dozen people dying in both countries combined at most daily. And they're big countries. It is a fraction of anything the West has seen and I seriously doubt it will ever ever get to the level it has been allowed to here. There's more people dying daily in Europe's tiniest countries like Slovenia than South Korea has seen in the last month

We'd like to have their problems vs being a cautionary tale (never nice ):

“Please don’t underestimate coronavirus,” Dr. Toshio Nakagawa, president of the Japan Medical Association, told reporters on Wednesday in Tokyo. “We cannot let Japan become like the U.S. or Europe.”

Stheno

Phillip Nolan tweeting appear to contradict the NPHET advice

https://twitter.com/President_MU/status/1333142563885297664?s=19

majcos

HSE operations report 29/11

As of 8pm, Covid cases hospitalised 257 (increase from 251)

Letterkenny 43
Tallaght 32
James 29
Vincent’s 24
Beaumont 21
Mater 20

ICU confirmed cases 30 - decrease from 31
Ventilated 17 - unchanged
1 death in ICU last 24 hours.

Deeper Blue

Arghus wrote: »

Maybe they don't live their lives on the thread like the rest of us and aren't au fait with every facet of epidemiology.

Touche, that reminds me I really need to spend less time on here

Arghus

El Sueño wrote: »

Touche, that reminds me I really need to spend less time on here

The odd civilian wanders onto the thread from time to time, who isn't automatically familiar with weaponised Covid chat and being bang up to date every single development in the story - and I realise that we're the freaks.

Polar101

Stheno wrote: »

Phillip Nolan tweeting appear to contradict the NPHET advice

(Apologies if I missed the point)

They might not like it, but they do know what the government decided with regards to lifting restrictions, so adjusting the advice accordingly makes sense.

caveat emptor

Arghus wrote: »

The odd civilian wanders onto the thread from time to time, who isn't automatically familiar with weaponised Covid chat and being bang up to date every single development in the story - and I realise that we're the freaks.

Speak for yourself there mount Arghus. :pac:

I agree everything is weaponised here.

The dog days are nearly over..........

spookwoman

Bit of humor, probably better for the conspiracy thread

https://twitter.com/forest_fr1ends/status/1333135835181568004?s=20

branie2

Thanks for the new one

Stheno

Polar101 wrote: »

(Apologies if I missed the point)

They might not like it, but they do know what the government decided with regards to lifting restrictions, so adjusting the advice accordingly makes sense.

Its the contradictory nature of someone on NPHET tweeting such a message

It suggests discord in NPHET to an interested observer

bb1234567

Interesting analysis from CSO-
They have determined COVID to be an underlying cause of death in 1462 deaths of the 1915 notified by the Department of Health(at the end of October).
https://www.thejournal.ie/cso-underlying-cause-death-5276913-Nov2020/

COVID-19 HAS BEEN listed as the fourth most common underlying cause for registered deaths in Ireland in the first 10 months of this year.

The most common underlying causes of death cited were cancer (7,269 deaths), diseases of the circulatory system/heart (5,886) and diseases of the respiratory system/lungs (2,390).

Covid-19 accounted for 1,462 of the registered deaths, or 6.5%.

Additionally Ireland's total deaths look like they will be significantly lower in 2020 than 2019.
Total deaths 2020 are 22400.
2019 saw 31,134 deaths.
Which was an average of 2594 deaths per month.
2020 has seen an average of 2240 deaths per month so far. To even be the same level of deaths as 2019 we would need to see 4500 deaths each in Novembr and December.


So I think a reasonable conclusion is ,lockdowns clearly don't cause deaths in any significant numbers at least over a 9 month time span anyway, in fact lockdowns appear to cause an extremely large drop in overall mortality.

And COVID deaths clearly don't have much long term impact on national mortality becauseof the age of the victims, as has been theorised.

caveat emptor

Polar101 wrote: »

(Apologies if I missed the point)

They might not like it, but they do know what the government decided with regards to lifting restrictions, so adjusting the advice accordingly makes sense.

I can't speak for Philip (we are on first name terms now :pac:) but I guess it's the same for anyone. Why worry or get upset about things you can't control?

At a certain point you have to let nature take it's course. By that I mean you can't convince people if they don't want to be convinced of a risk.

Also I don't judge those who wish to refuse restrictions for the simple reason that it'll probably cause them more harm than it'll cause me. (however small)

We are nearly there anyway. No point fretting.

bb1234567

I know at the beginning it scared people that admissons for many different diseases to hospitals had reduced, theory was people were afraid to attend hospitals because of COVID, or had treatment deferred..but luckily, seems like, for whatever reason, these people simply did not die compared to normal years.And sick people did not die as expected and this trend occurred in significantly large numbers.
Can anyone explain this?
Deaths from all causes in Ireland this year have reduced massively compared to previous years.

2018 was a pretty normal mortality years for Ireland.
Cancer deaths 2018
9198
Average of 767 p/m

Cardiovascular deaths 2019
8938
Average of 744 p/m
https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-vsys/vitalstatisticsyearlysummary2018/


Cancer deaths 2020
7269
Average of 726 p/m
Projected total by January - 8723
Cardiovascular deaths 2020
5886
Average of 588 p/m
Projected total - 7062

Projected total of 475 'missing' cancer deaths compared to 2018
1876 'missing' cardiovascular deaths

However, respiratory diseases buck the trend. They are way up in 2020.
2018 saw 1743 of these deaths , while 2020 has already seen 2390 lung disease related deaths.
145 p/m in 2018 VS 239 p/ in 2020.
A 75% increase in pneumonia and other lung related diseases unrelated to COVID so far in 2020, very odd indeed.

I know people lived a lot more healthily during lockdown, less stressed, more exercise, better diet, less work, more family time, a lot more time outdoors during spring and summer than usual, no pubs , no commute etc..but how could those lifestyle changes affects cancer or heart disease deaths so massively and so rapidly??

John O.Groats

spookwoman wrote: »

Bit of humor, probably better for the conspiracy thread

https://twitter.com/forest_fr1ends/status/1333135835181568004?s=20

Let`s hope that the tinfoil hat wearers in this forum don`t see this. They will take it as fact.:rolleyes:

didyoufart?

Cases in Kilkenny linked back to a primary school.

One specific case in my locality the parent got infected by the child and passed it onto 9 work colleagues.

Mass tested the school now as well. No wonder the numbers are so high when there covering up the school data like theirs no tomorrow.

Thats me

bb1234567 wrote: »

I know people lived a lot more healthily during lockdown, less stressed, more exercise, better diet, less work, more family time, a lot more time outdoors during spring and summer than usual, no pubs , no commute etc..but how could those lifestyle changes affects cancer or heart disease deaths so massively and so rapidly??

This may be not a lifestyle change, just some rough ideas:

1. On cso.ie they telling in the information tab: "All data up to 2018 is final. Data for subsequent year/s is provisional" - so may be this information comes with delays and 2020 numbers will be increased much later
2. Somebody with cancer or heart disease have died from covid instead
3. Somebody with cancer or heart disease have not died from their main disease because thanks to isolation they had lesser chances of any other infection which would make their conditions worse
4. There may be some kinds of treatments of these diseases with less than 100% success rate. Not done treatment didn't cause death this year but may be warrant of delayed growth of deaths over subsequent years
5. OK, this one is lifestyle related. Some heart diseases can be not fatal if help provided in time, when many people changed to home because WFH or lost jobs, chances are higher that somebody would recognise the problem with their family member and call emergency before it is too late.

Thats me

didyoufart? wrote: »

Mass tested the school now as well. No wonder the numbers are so high when there covering up the school data like theirs no tomorrow.

HSE seem started mass-testing schools and publishing data: https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/newsfeatures/covid19-updates/covid-19-schools-mass-testing-report.html

utyh2ikcq9z76b

bb1234567 wrote: »

I know at the beginning it scared people that admissons for many different diseases to hospitals had reduced, theory was people were afraid to attend hospitals because of COVID, or had treatment deferred..but luckily, seems like, for whatever reason, these people simply did not die compared to normal years.And sick people did not die as expected and this trend occurred in significantly large numbers.
Can anyone explain this?
Deaths from all causes in Ireland this year have reduced massively compared to previous years.

2018 was a pretty normal mortality years for Ireland.
Cancer deaths 2018
9198
Average of 767 p/m

Cardiovascular deaths 2019
8938
Average of 744 p/m
https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-vsys/vitalstatisticsyearlysummary2018/


Cancer deaths 2020
7269
Average of 726 p/m
Projected total by January - 8723
Cardiovascular deaths 2020
5886
Average of 588 p/m
Projected total - 7062

Projected total of 475 'missing' cancer deaths compared to 2018
1876 'missing' cardiovascular deaths

However, respiratory diseases buck the trend. They are way up in 2020.
2018 saw 1743 of these deaths , while 2020 has already seen 2390 lung disease related deaths.
145 p/m in 2018 VS 239 p/ in 2020.
A 75% increase in pneumonia and other lung related diseases unrelated to COVID so far in 2020, very odd indeed.

I know people lived a lot more healthily during lockdown, less stressed, more exercise, better diet, less work, more family time, a lot more time outdoors during spring and summer than usual, no pubs , no commute etc..but how could those lifestyle changes affects cancer or heart disease deaths so massively and so rapidly??

Health care is a leading cause of death and injury worldwide.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK225187/

didyoufart?

Thats me wrote: »

HSE seem started mass-testing schools and publishing data: https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/newsfeatures/covid19-updates/covid-19-schools-mass-testing-report.html

Thanks for that. Very interesting.

Don't think we will ever get back down to 50 a day with the schools open.

Obviously the children are definitely passing onto parents and thier infecting work colleagues etc. Still don't get how people think schools are not an issue.

Goldengirl

[Deleted User] wrote: »

You may not agree with many of the opinions there but that doesn't mean they don't matter or those having them should be sneered at.

Not sneering here, stating what I have found and in my own opinion
If someone has an opinion and expresses it fair enough .
Many here have the experience of being sneered at for our opinions by a group of posters on that thread who fail to either debate or discuss rationally or even treat other posters with respect .
At least on this thread there is more of a balance in opinions and discussion.

bb1234567

Saige Narrow Steak wrote: »

Health care is a leading cause of death and injury worldwide.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK225187/

Wow that's unbelievable, it really could be a reason. And I wonder if the respiratory deaths not being lower than normal might be because that group would have had covid symptoms and perhaps attended hospitals then?

Goldengirl

Stheno wrote: »

You are only looking at your circumstances though

There are plenty of people who will not be mixing with other households in their houses, but who might like to go for a meal or some drinks with their housematrs

Myself and my Oh will have no on visiting our house and nor will we be visiting others (ohs daughter is staying home as she is caring for a vulnerable person, I am not visiting my parents as I've seven other siblings who will all visit both my parents and each other, so I think that's too much of a risk)

I would however like to get out during the day for coffee with the Oh to get a break from work, to go for a meal or two with him, and to meet his son for dinner

So different strokes for different folks

You will get those in the middle who will both go out socially and have gatherings at home

Yes, exactly.
Will be delighted to do some shopping and go for a meal with my oh and family safely as well as the hairdresser.
Won't be mixing households until we see how things are going closer to Christmas .

Goldengirl

Thats me wrote: »

This may be not a lifestyle change, just some rough ideas:

1. On cso.ie they telling in the information tab: "All data up to 2018 is final. Data for subsequent year/s is provisional" - so may be this information comes with delays and 2020 numbers will be increased much later
2. Somebody with cancer or heart disease have died from covid instead
3. Somebody with cancer or heart disease have not died from their main disease because thanks to isolation they had lesser chances of any other infection which would make their conditions worse
4. There may be some kinds of treatments of these diseases with less than 100% success rate. Not done treatment didn't cause death this year but may be warrant of delayed growth of deaths over subsequent years
5. OK, this one is lifestyle related. Some heart diseases can be not fatal if help provided in time, when many people changed to home because WFH or lost jobs, chances are higher that somebody would recognise the problem with their family member and call emergency before it is too late.

Have to add here that A& E s are generally less busy than other years , people staying away , with the result that sicker patients admitted are being treated faster .
This may translate to more patients with untreated illness and undiagnosed serious disease next year though .

Also more efficient use of outpatients departments, with virtual clinics increasing appointment times for those that really need them .
I have had both professional and personal experience of this , during the year fortunately/ unfortunately ?

Goldengirl

bb1234567 wrote: »

Wow that's unbelievable, it really could be a reason. And I wonder if the respiratory deaths not being lower than normal might be because that group would have had covid symptoms and perhaps attended hospitals then?

It is pretty unbelievable , to think that people would believe that a review of literature from the 1980s and the 1990s would have that much relevance today ? Seriously?
Obviously medicine and science never mind technology has advanced in light years since this article was written ..2000.
No denying errors do occur but even checking and tracking and recording of iatrogenic complications is so much better now ..not even a tablet can be omitted without alarm bells going off in hospital pharmacies!
I think those respiratory deaths while not of Covid directly must be attributable somehow, or maybe these patients stayed out of hospital for fear of Covid when they would normally have attended A&E ?

didyoufart?

didyoufart? wrote: »

Cases in Kilkenny linked back to a primary school.

One specific case in my locality the parent got infected by the child and passed it onto 9 work colleagues.

Mass tested the school now as well. No wonder the numbers are so high when there covering up the school data like theirs no tomorrow.

I would suggest the parent or the parents workplace would want to take a closer look at themselves. 9 contacts at work who caught the virus? Either they have a multiple of that number of contacts, or they were working in close proximity with a large number of people for an extended time

wadacrack

Deleted User wrote: »

I would suggest the parent or the parents workplace would want to take a closer look at themselves. 9 contacts at work who caught the virus? Either they have a multiple of that number of contacts, or they were working in close proximity with a large number of people for an extended time

You don't need 9 contacts. The chain of transmission may have lead to 9 people becoming infected

didyoufart?

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I would suggest the parent or the parents workplace would want to take a closer look at themselves. 9 contacts at work who caught the virus? Either they have a multiple of that number of contacts, or they were working in close proximity with a large number of people for an extended time

Some workplaces its nearly impossible to implement proper distancing. Two or three may needed to perform a single task.

caveat emptor

With regards the vaccine rollout, Listening to Simon coveny on the radio there. He says we are part of the EU purchasing power deal etc. He mentioned that it's good and mentioned something of PPE.

Do we not remember what happened with that. France was pulling medicine off trucks. Germany banned the export of PPE. Freedom of travel suspended etc. Saying we are part of the bloc does not mean we won't be at the back of the queue. We need concrete assurances and someone should ask pertinent questions and not appease the platitudes being rolled out currently.

didyoufart?

didyoufart? wrote: »

Some workplaces its nearly impossible to implement proper distancing. Two or three may needed to perform a single task.

And the two or three are a workgroup with contacts with other work groups to be avoided. There are very few work situations that would require 9 people to work together for an extended period time such that all would get infected. The two environments where this separation is always possible are healthcare and schools. Its why everyone else is asked to distance, to ensure those services we have deemed critical can continue. And all evidence is that it is working.

In the scenario as presented, testing the school may be a bit moot at this point also. If as contended the virus went from child to parent to work, that's two full infection cycles, a third when you add in the child had to get it somewhere. The source of the infection in the child could have been up to 3 weeks ago. Given the length of time other follow on infections from the initial case would have presented themselves by now