COVID-19: Vaccine/antidote and testing procedures Megathread [Mod Warning - Post #1]

drunkmonkey · 28-11-2020 1:09pm

Deleted User wrote: »

The trial is randomised that means there is an equal chance of a person in the vaccine group having had the BCG as there is in the placebo group.

The results of the trial are a comparison between the two groups, so any effect the BCG vaccine might have is equal across both groups and as such won't effect the efficacy read out.

There couldn't be an equal chance as different countries had different regulations around it. Like for example here, 100% of under 5's might not have had it which is the case. Also 100% of over 80's might not have had it either.

Hmmzis · 28-11-2020 2:05pm

drunkmonkey wrote: »

There couldn't be an equal chance as different countries had different regulations around it. Like for example here, 100% of under 5's might not have had it which is the case. Also 100% of over 80's might not have had it either.

Moderna and Pfizer were run in the US and Oxford was in UK and Brazil. You could compare the BCG vaccination statistics between the countries and see if you can make the 30 odd percentage difference go away. Though I think it's very unlikely to explain that difference.

hmmm · 28-11-2020 2:20pm

drunkmonkey wrote: »

There couldn't be an equal chance as different countries had different regulations around it. Like for example here, 100% of under 5's might not have had it which is the case. Also 100% of over 80's might not have had it either.

The regulators will have access to the breakdown across countries. It might become public in the published data once it is peer-reviewed. Part of the peer-review process will be to challenge any conclusions using questions like that.

drunkmonkey · 28-11-2020 2:50pm

The question is really if bcg is 30% effective, 90% of our population have had that vaccine, would it not suggest we don't need 70% take up on the new vaccine, it's more of a top up maybe 10/20% uptake would do us.

Is it 25% of health care workers have caught Covid, maybe that's the magic number.

Also begs the question, while we don't have a new vaccine should we restart the 30% effective one.

28-11-2020 2:59pm

drunkmonkey wrote: »

There couldn't be an equal chance as different countries had different regulations around it. Like for example here, 100% of under 5's might not have had it which is the case. Also 100% of over 80's might not have had it either.

Except that in each country where the trial is run there will be equal numbers in both the placebo group and the vaccine group, and the demographics of each group will be similar.

Say in the USA 10,000 participants, 5,000 placebo, 5,000 vaccine. Low BCG coverage so maybe 10% across both groups.

Another arm of the trial is in say Poland 2,000 participants, 1,000 placebo, 1,000 vaccine. Good BCG coverage so maybe as much as 80% across both groups.

What you are suggesting is remedied by the trial design, Pfizer in particular have a great sample size across lots of different countries.

ShineOn7 · 28-11-2020 3:22pm

Gael23 wrote: »

Will we be seeing companies like Pfizer and Moderna sell rights to the vaccine to other drug manufacturers to rapidly increase production?

Good question

I think they're all doing this at cost anyway aren't they? At least for the first jab

If yearly jabs are needed after then they'll make up for it there

drunkmonkey · 28-11-2020 4:22pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Except that in each country where the trial is run there will be equal numbers in both the placebo group and the vaccine group, and the demographics of each group will be similar.

Say in the USA 10,000 participants, 5,000 placebo, 5,000 vaccine. Low BCG coverage so maybe 10% across both groups.

Another arm of the trial is in say Poland 2,000 participants, 1,000 placebo, 1,000 vaccine. Good BCG coverage so maybe as much as 80% across both groups.

What you are suggesting is remedied by the trial design, Pfizer in particular have a great sample size across lots of different countries.

Good few assumptions there, Suppose we have to wait to see the data once it's available, it'll be interesting to see if they took note of who had the bcg or not especially in the placebo group. I wonder did they even take account of it.

hmmm · 28-11-2020 4:35pm

drunkmonkey wrote: »

The question is really if bcg is 30% effective, 90% of our population have had that vaccine, would it not suggest we don't need 70% take up on the new vaccine, it's more of a top up maybe 10/20% uptake would do us.

Is it 25% of health care workers have caught Covid, maybe that's the magic number.

Unlikely unfortunately (25%). There was an interesting study of a fishing vessel from a few months ago where 85% of the people on the ship got infected.
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-08-fishing-boat-outbreak-virus-immunity.html

I'm not expert on these things, but looking at how Ebola is tackled it shows that as vaccinations are pushed out, it starts squeezing the virus even without requiring herd immunity. Let's say we got everyone in hospitals vaccinated, and everyone in nursing homes, now we could potentially keep some of our limited supply to go after outbreaks. If as an example there was an outbreak in a meat plant, you'd immediately vaccinate the other workers and all of their close contacts (whatever their health or age) - there'd still be some infections, but it becomes much harder for the virus to break out into the wider community.

Russman · 28-11-2020 5:04pm

hmmm wrote: »

Unlikely unfortunately (25%). There was an interesting study of a fishing vessel from a few months ago where 85% of the people on the ship got infected.
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-08-fishing-boat-outbreak-virus-immunity.html

I'm not expert on these things, but looking at how Ebola is tackled it shows that as vaccinations are pushed out, it starts squeezing the virus even without requiring herd immunity. Let's say we got everyone in hospitals vaccinated, and everyone in nursing homes, now we could potentially keep some of our limited supply to go after outbreaks. If as an example there was an outbreak in a meat plant, you'd immediately vaccinate the other workers and all of their close contacts (whatever their health or age) - there'd still be some infections, but it becomes much harder for the virus to break out into the wider community.

But, with a two dose regimen, and I think I’ve seen it mentioned that it’s basically 6 weeks from the first shot before you’re protected, is this not too slow acting to chase after outbreaks ?
Totally agree that we’d start squeezing the virus before herd immunity is fully achieved. Personally I think HCWs and care home residents will be a huge first step in slowing transmission.

Water John · 28-11-2020 5:59pm

Vaccinating care home residents will mostly supress the deaths from the virus.
Vaccinating any vulnerable cohort will reduce hospitalisations also and the number in ICU. That will be a major early achievement of a vaccination programme.

drunkmonkey · 28-11-2020 7:07pm

Has it been tested on care home residents, I doubt they could have. Probably safer make sure anyone going near one is vaccinated.

28-11-2020 9:22pm

UK have appointed a Minister for Vaccine deployment, mostly a PR move I'd guess, but not a bad idea. It puts a face on who's responsible and might be an added impetus to get things moving.

hmmm · 28-11-2020 9:42pm

Deleted User wrote: »

UK have appointed a Minister for Vaccine deployment, mostly a PR move I'd guess, but not a bad idea. It puts a face on who's responsible and might be an added impetus to get things moving.

Good move by the UK. Our vaccine strategy is apparently being delivered to Government on the 11th of December. The UK is planning to actually start vaccinating on the 7th, they have had their strategy published for some time.

I know these things can't be rushed, and we might not even get deliveries of vaccines until January, but I'm getting concerned now at the seeming lack of urgency. Apparently we're also supposed to get a media plan promoting vaccines - well, where is it?

Like a lot of people I've been fully supportive of lockdowns and the actions of our health professionals and government, but they'll lose that support rapidly if we look like we are dawdling with getting vaccines deployed.

28-11-2020 9:48pm

hmmm wrote: »

Good move by the UK. Our vaccine strategy is apparently being delivered to Government on the 11th of December. The UK is planning to actually start vaccinating on the 7th, they have had their strategy published for some time.

I know these things can't be rushed, and we might not even get deliveries of vaccines until January, but I'm getting concerned now at the seeming lack of urgency. Apparently we're also supposed to get a media plan promoting vaccines - well, where is it?

Like a lot of people I've been fully supportive of lockdowns and the actions of our health professionals and government, but they'll lose that support rapidly if we look like we are dawdling with getting vaccines deployed.

Yep I'd very much agree. When the confirmed strategy was delay and vaccinate that should have been the kickstart to having the vaccine plan in place and ready to go.

We need to have everything in place before doses are available, and it feels like we may be letting that slip.

ShineOn7 · 28-11-2020 9:55pm

hmmm wrote: »

Good move by the UK. Our vaccine strategy is apparently being delivered to Government on the 11th of December. The UK is planning to actually start vaccinating on the 7th, they have had their strategy published for some time.

I know these things can't be rushed, and we might not even get deliveries of vaccines until January, but I'm getting concerned now at the seeming lack of urgency. Apparently we're also supposed to get a media plan promoting vaccines - well, where is it?

Like a lot of people I've been fully supportive of lockdowns and the actions of our health professionals and government, but they'll lose that support rapidly if we look like we are dawdling with getting vaccines deployed.

All great points

I get the impression that the scenes happening right now by the HSE to put together a plan aren't pretty

It's 2 more weeks before they even announce it ffs

Not. Good. Enough.

ACitizenErased · 28-11-2020 9:56pm

Ah shur lads its grand the HSE have it under control, nothing to see here!!!

JacksonHeightsOwn · 28-11-2020 10:02pm

hmmm wrote: »

Good move by the UK. Our vaccine strategy is apparently being delivered to Government on the 11th of December. The UK is planning to actually start vaccinating on the 7th, they have had their strategy published for some time.

I know these things can't be rushed, and we might not even get deliveries of vaccines until January, but I'm getting concerned now at the seeming lack of urgency. Apparently we're also supposed to get a media plan promoting vaccines - well, where is it?

Like a lot of people I've been fully supportive of lockdowns and the actions of our health professionals and government, but they'll lose that support rapidly if we look like we are dawdling with getting vaccines deployed.

Where did it say the British are planning to start jabbing on the 7th of December?

I hope they are, but I'll believe it when I see it.

The tories are great at media manipulation

hmmm · 28-11-2020 10:20pm

chrisbonnie wrote: »

Where did it say the British are planning to start jabbing on the 7th of December?

The Financial Times are reporting it this evening. Dependent on authorisation, but they are generally a reliable news source.

Micky 32 · 28-11-2020 10:24pm

hmmm wrote: »

Good move by the UK. Our vaccine strategy is apparently being delivered to Government on the 11th of December. The UK is planning to actually start vaccinating on the 7th, they have had their strategy published for some time.

I know these things can't be rushed, and we might not even get deliveries of vaccines until January, but I'm getting concerned now at the seeming lack of urgency. Apparently we're also supposed to get a media plan promoting vaccines - well, where is it?

Like a lot of people I've been fully supportive of lockdowns and the actions of our health professionals and government, but they'll lose that support rapidly if we look like we are dawdling with getting vaccines deployed.

According to the RTE news app:

“Planning and preparation for a Covid-19 vaccine and how an immunisation programme in Ireland would work have been under way for months.”

“ Teams in the Department of Health and the HSE have been working on it, and a new high-level Government task force has also been set up. “

hmmm · 28-11-2020 10:29pm

Micky 32 wrote: »

According to the RTE news app:

“Planning and preparation for a Covid-19 vaccine and how an immunisation programme in Ireland would work have been under way for months.”

“ Teams in the Department of Health and the HSE have been working on it, and a new high-level Government task force has also been set up. “

I wasn't filled with confidence by something I read earlier in the month. If they have been working on some of these things for months (particularly with the knowledge of the potential cold storage requirements), shouldn't these names have been available immediately? (genuine question).

"Mr Martin said the taskforce will be chaired by Professor Brian MacCraith of DCU. The Chief Medical Officer will also be on the committee along withMr Reid Reid, chair of the senior officials group on Covid-19 Liz Canavan, Government chief information officer Barry Lowry, Government chief procurement officer Paul Quinn, a yet to be confirmed officials from the Department of Business, along with a logistics cold chain expert and project management expert."

The first meeting of the task force was on the 23rd, and this was published:
https://www.gov.ie/en/press-release/de326-first-meeting-of-the-high-level-taskforce-on-covid-19-vaccination/

stephenjmcd · 28-11-2020 10:38pm

hmmm wrote: »

I wasn't filled with confidence by something I read earlier in the month. If they have been working on some of these things for months (particularly with the knowledge of the potential cold storage requirements), shouldn't these names have been available immediately? (genuine question).

"Mr Martin said the taskforce will be chaired by Professor Brian MacCraith of DCU. The Chief Medical Officer will also be on the committee along withMr Reid Reid, chair of the senior officials group on Covid-19 Liz Canavan, Government chief information officer Barry Lowry, Government chief procurement officer Paul Quinn, a yet to be confirmed officials from the Department of Business, along with a logistics cold chain expert and project management expert."

The first meeting of the task force was on the 23rd, and this was published:
https://www.gov.ie/en/press-release/de326-first-meeting-of-the-high-level-taskforce-on-covid-19-vaccination/

Appearently HSE & Dept of health having been working on it for months and now the task force is to bring everything together for roll out.

Thats the plan appearently

Strumms · 29-11-2020 12:55am

Water John wrote: »

Vaccinating care home residents will mostly supress the deaths from the virus.
Vaccinating any vulnerable cohort will reduce hospitalisations also and the number in ICU. That will be a major early achievement of a vaccination programme.

I’m against going straight into care homes and spending time and effort and the vaccine itself on people who have or are coming towards the end of their lives as a priority. It’s just a fûcking wokey bullshît reaction...a teddybear swinging awhhh vote getter amongst those counting their brain cells on an abacus...

I’d like to see priority given to...

1) healthcare workers

2) medically vulnerable

3) Gardai

4) Army

5) Government / staff opposition TD’s / staff

5) care home residents

6) certain public employees - government advisors etc...

7) everybody else.

Water John · 29-11-2020 1:17am

Putting aside any moral judgement, it makes sense to lower the impact on the medical services. This means treatments for other illness is not delayed.
So the priority is, those most liable to require hospitalisation and ICU care.

JTMan · 29-11-2020 9:03am

Sunday Independent reports here and here (paywall):

- Officially speaking the government are saying that vaccinations will start at the end of January but privately those involved expect vaccinations to start at the end of December.
- Supplies are probably going to arrive in December. One insider said what is the point in storing them rather than putting them to immediate use.
- Vaccinations could start 5 days to 1 week after the supplies arrive. The supplies might arrive around 11 December.
- 1.4 million people in Ireland fall under the "vulnerable" category.
- 'People over 80 in nursing homes' might be the first category to get the vaccine.
- Decisions still to be made on mass vaccinations centres. (So slow making these decisions versus other countries).

Cork2021 · 29-11-2020 9:10am

JTMan wrote: »

Sunday Independent reports here and here (paywall):

- Officially speaking the government are saying that vaccinations will start at the end of January but privately those involved expect vaccinations to start at the end of December.
- Supplies are probably going to arrive in December. One insider said what is the point in storing them rather than putting them to immediate use.
- Vaccinations could start 5 days to 1 week after the supplies arrive. The supplies might arrive around 11 December.
- 1.4 million people in Ireland fall under the "vulnerable" category.
- 'People over 80 in nursing homes' might be the first category to get the vaccine.
- Decisions still to be made on mass vaccinations centres. (So slow making these decisions versus other countries).

It’s just the Irish psych to be like this. Monday week is possible that the first jabs will be given in the UK while sometime next month we’re looking at. We are always and forever will be behind

Cork2021 · 29-11-2020 9:41am

The comment underneath the article on Facebook are unreal. Some amount of anti vax on it

https://m.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/race-is-on-to-vaccinate-the-nation-with-hopes-jabs-will-be-available-next-month-39804049.html?fbclid=IwAR2a0ZE658A384EaTAPIdDb_ueeFIBJtLQl9FR3Uvv4hMkbeELYZmS6HDG4

PCeeeee · 29-11-2020 9:52am

Cork2021 wrote: »

It’s just the Irish psych to be like this. Monday week is possible that the first jabs will be given in the UK while sometime next month we’re looking at. We are always and forever will be behind

I have no doubt the UK will commerce vaccination as fast as possible. That's easy. Do 100 people and you've started. I believe that the current government are making the starting date of vax their highest priority. You can draw your own conclusions as to why.

What I believe to be far more important is
numbers over time. The initial starting date isn't really all that important.

The UK, may well be better at vaccination. Or they may not. Time will tell

AssetBacked2 · 29-11-2020 9:59am

I wonder could one go to another country to get the vaccine if it is available sooner than in Ireland to the general public?

alchemist33 · 29-11-2020 10:01am

At least one healthcare Trust in the north is planning to start vaccinating the week of Dec 9th. Whether they succeed or not is a different matter.

irishgeo · 29-11-2020 10:06am

Nothing been approved yet and it's the 1st of December next Tuesday. Unless it's approved and shipped by the end of the week they haven't a hope.

COVID-19: Vaccine/antidote and testing procedures Megathread [Mod Warning - Post #1]

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