COVID-19: Vaccine/antidote and testing procedures Megathread [Mod Warning - Post #1]

27-11-2020 9:03pm

Public Health England have published a provisional list of conditions for priority vaccination:

Table 3 Clinical risk groups 18 years of age and over who should receive COVID-19 immunisation.

Chronic respiratory disease
Individuals with a severe lung condition, including those with asthma that
requires continuous or repeated use of systemic steroids or with previous
exacerbations requiring hospital admission, and chronic obstructive
pulmonary disease (COPD) including chronic bronchitis and emphysema;
bronchiectasis, cystic fibrosis, interstitial lung fibrosis, pneumoconiosis and
bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD).

Chronic heart disease and vascular disease
Congenital heart disease, hypertension with cardiac complications, chronic
heart failure, individuals requiring regular medication and/or follow-up for
ischaemic heart disease. This includes individuals with atrial fibrillation,
peripheral vascular disease or a history of venous thromboembolism.

Chronic kidney disease
Chronic kidney disease at stage 3, 4 or 5, chronic kidney failure, nephrotic
syndrome, kidney transplantation.

Chronic liver disease
Cirrhosis, biliary atresia, chronic hepatitis.

Chronic neurological disease
Stroke, transient ischaemic attack (TIA). Conditions in which respiratory
function may be compromised due to neurological disease (e.g. polio
syndrome sufferers). This includes individuals with cerebral palsy, severe or
profound learning disabilities, Down’s Syndrome, multiple sclerosis,
epilepsy, dementia, Parkinson’s disease, motor neurone disease and related
or similar conditions; or hereditary and degenerative disease of the
nervous system or muscles; or severe neurological disability.

Diabetes
Type 1 diabetes, type 2 diabetes requiring insulin or oral hypoglycaemic
drugs, diet-controlled diabetes.

Immunosuppression
Immunosuppression due to disease or treatment, including patients
undergoing chemotherapy leading to immunosuppression, patients
undergoing radical radiotherapy, solid organ transplant recipients, bone
marrow or stem cell transplant recipients, HIV infection at all stages,
multiple myeloma or genetic disorders affecting the immune system (e.g.
IRAK-4, NEMO, complement disorder, SCID).
Individuals who are receiving immunosuppressive or immunomodulating
biological therapy including, but not limited to, anti-TNF, alemtuzumab,
ofatumumab, rituximab, patients receiving protein kinase inhibitors or
PARP inhibitors, and individuals treated with steroid sparing agents such as
cyclophosphamide and mycophenolate mofetil.
Individuals treated with or likely to be treated with systemic steroids for
more than a month at a dose equivalent to prednisolone at 20mg or more
per day (any age).
Anyone with a history of haematological malignancy, including leukaemia,
lymphoma, and myeloma and those with systemic lupus erythematosus
and rheumatoid arthritis, and psoriasis who may require long term
immunosuppressive treatments.
Some immunocompromised patients may have a suboptimal
immunological response to the vaccine.

Asplenia or dysfunction of the spleen
This also includes conditions that may lead to splenic dysfunction, such as
homozygous sickle cell disease, thalassemia major and coeliac syndrome.

Morbid obesity
Adults with a Body Mass Index ≥40 kg/m².

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-the-green-book-chapter-14a

Stheno · 27-11-2020 9:09pm

Hospitals in England told prepare to vaccinate HCW with Pfizer vaccine in ten days

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/27/hospitals-england-told-prepare-early-december-covid-vaccine-rollout-nhs

ShineOn7 · 27-11-2020 9:09pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Public Health England have published a provisional list of conditions for priority vaccination:

Morbid obesity
Adults with a Body Mass Index ≥40 kg/m².

I can see that one causing uproar

And rightly so

stephenjmcd · 27-11-2020 9:10pm

Speaking of the UK

https://twitter.com/oconnellhugh/status/1332413982590820360?s=19

27-11-2020 9:14pm

ShineOn7 wrote: »

I can see that one causing uproar

And rightly so

Hate to put it like this, but that opinion is boll*cks. This is about preventing illness, preventing hospitalisations and ultimately to prevent death. To so callously dismiss people like that is inhuman and shameful.

Russman · 27-11-2020 9:15pm

Stheno wrote: »

Hospitals in England told prepare to vaccinate HCW with Pfizer vaccine in ten days

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/27/hospitals-england-told-prepare-early-december-covid-vaccine-rollout-nhs

If it’s true that it can only be moved 4 times, it creates an awkward constraint with regard to getting it into nursing homes. Bit if a logistical nightmare if they have to commute the residents to a vaccination hub safely.

Russman · 27-11-2020 9:17pm

ShineOn7 wrote: »

I can see that one causing uproar

And rightly so

Why ?

Stheno · 27-11-2020 9:20pm

Russman wrote: »

If it’s true that it can only be moved 4 times, it creates an awkward constraint with regard to getting it into nursing homes. Bit if a logistical nightmare if they have to commute the residents to a vaccination hub safely.

Vaccinate care home staff via clinics instead?

Stheno · 27-11-2020 9:23pm

ShineOn7 wrote: »

I can see that one causing uproar

And rightly so

Why?
Obesity is known to be a risk factor for Covid?

Russman · 27-11-2020 9:26pm

Stheno wrote: »

Vaccinate care home staff via clinics instead?

Yeah I guess so. Not an insurmountable problem of course, just will need good planning with a short enough shelf life of the vaccine once it’s thawed out and if it can only be moved 4 times.
There’d be no room for short notice cancellations !

ShineOn7 · 27-11-2020 9:33pm

Russman wrote: »

Why ?

Stheno wrote: »

Why?
Obesity is known to be a risk factor for Covid?

There's surely people that deserve to be ahead of them in the queue

All over 70s for a start

Deeper Blue · 27-11-2020 9:37pm

ShineOn7 wrote: »

There's surely people that deserve to be ahead of them in the queue

All over 70s for a start

I'd have thought the same, but I wonder is a young morbidly obese person more at risk than a healthy 70 year old? Or more likely to be hospitalized?

Stheno · 27-11-2020 9:40pm

ShineOn7 wrote: »

There's surely people that deserve to be ahead of them in the queue

All over 70s for a start

Ah I didn't notice they were ahead of the over 70s

ShineOn7 · 27-11-2020 9:42pm

El Sueño wrote: »

I'd have thought the same, but I wonder is a young morbidly obese person more at risk than a healthy 70 year old? Or more likely to be hospitalized?

There will be ructions if the over 70s don't get it before morbidly obese

Not all of the latter will be in their condition because of lifestyle choices. But some will

And they should get it before a 75 year old man in a nursing home?

Not a chance

Hopefully there are enough vaccines by February/March to avoid choices like this having to be made

27-11-2020 10:31pm

ShineOn7 wrote: »

There will be ructions if the over 70s don't get it before morbidly obese

Not all of the latter will be in their condition because of lifestyle choices. But some will

And they should get it before a 75 year old man in a nursing home?

Not a chance

Hopefully there are enough vaccines by February/March to avoid choices like this having to be made

Those conditions that were listed are 6th on the priority list, anyone over 65 is ahead of them.

PCeeeee · 28-11-2020 10:02am

Fodla wrote: »

Because even countries that have dealt with it still have masks. I'm just saying that there's no evidence to suggest that they will ever be got rid of. But that could change.

Deleted as Mod instruction

daheff · 28-11-2020 10:14am

RugbyLad11 wrote: »

Seems quite slow, hopefully it won't be this slow.

I believe the UK said they will vacinate all eldery and HCW by January?

Spain says they plan to have the entire population vaccinated by spring

Good luck to Spain. And just where do they think they will get all the vaccine doses to do that? Have they signed some agreement to out them to head of the queue?

Pfizer look likely to manufacture 150m doses per month. People need 2 doses. That 150 is for the whole world. 4 months manufacturing would be required for the US alone...more for Europe. And that's before you take into account logistics of shipping and physically vaccinating people.

Granted multiple vaccines increase the amount of doses available, but not all will suit a region(cost, storage at very cold temps etc).

More likely end 2021/ first half 2022 before we get a majority vaccinated in my opinion.

dominatinMC · 28-11-2020 10:57am

Micky 32 wrote: »

I see prof Horgan downplaying the vaccines, just merely tools along with our behaviours. If this vaccine doesn’t work expect the rest of our lives to be just as an existence while listening to George Lee and the taiseacht with his Friday speeches on what we can’t do, f*****g depressing future...

Ah come on now, George Lee's time in the limelight is slowly but surely coming to an end with the vaccines on the horizon. I'm not surprised by Prof. Horgan as she seems to be one of the more conservative academics. I didn't see/hear the piece you're referring to but I'd guess she's saying we need to be vigilant for a period post-vaccination for the vaccines to actually take effect. Then normality resumes. How could it not? At the end of the day, we have >90% efficacy vaccines, that's unbelievable and sometimes I have to remind myself that humans actually developed these in under a year.
Some people wouldn't be happy if we had 100% and would still find the negativity, but most seem to acknowledge that we're on the road to recovery. Keep the faith!

is_that_so · 28-11-2020 10:58am

daheff wrote: »

Good luck to Spain. And just where do they think they will get all the vaccine doses to do that? Have they signed some agreement to out them to head of the queue?

Pfizer look likely to manufacture 150m doses per month. People need 2 doses. That 150 is for the whole world. 4 months manufacturing would be required for the US alone...more for Europe. And that's before you take into account logistics of shipping and physically vaccinating people.

Granted multiple vaccines increase the amount of doses available, but not all will suit a region(cost, storage at very cold temps etc).

More likely end 2021/ first half 2022 before we get a majority vaccinated in my opinion.

If all 3 are approved (Chinese and Russian ones will also quite likely play a part globally) that's a reasonable number of doses available immediately. They will all go from low millions to huge numbers very quickly. More vaccines will follow in 2021. We don't need everyone vaccinated. All high risk and then north of 70% in 2021 should do the job.

speckle · 28-11-2020 11:06am

El Sueño wrote: »

I'd have thought the same, but I wonder is a young morbidly obese person more at risk than a healthy 70 year old? Or more likely to be hospitalized?

I wondered to... then I remembered the german government stats for the over 80s...89% average recovery rate. Even higher in those who are healthy and lower for those with co morbidtys and frailer which are more likely to be in nursing homes.

Not saying right or wrong... probably they have a risk list and those on that list all higher except medical staff and then maybe healthy over 70s would be next?

I think a list showing % death/survival and timespent recovering in or out of hospital hours should be published so people can see why the list is as it is, for the less obvious exclusions

daheff · 28-11-2020 11:15am

speckle wrote: »

I wondered to... then I remembered the german government stats for the over 80s...89% average recovery rate. Even higher in those who are healthy and lower for those with co morbidtys and frailer which are more likely to be in nursing homes.

Not saying right or wrong... probably they have a risk list and those on that list all higher except medical staff and then maybe healthy over 70s would be next?

I think a list showing % death/survival and timespent recovering in or out of hospital hours should be published so people can see why the list is as it is, for the less obvious exclusions

German vaccination plans include using the army to do it due to the sheer numbers requiring the vaccine

It'd be interesting to see the roll out plan here

drunkmonkey · 28-11-2020 11:17am

is_that_so wrote: »

. We don't need everyone vaccinated. All high risk and then north of 70% in 2021 should do the job.

One we have the at risk and care workers etc vaccinated, what % of healthy people will need to get it, do we know, I'm assuming the 50% odd that say they won't get it are mainly healthy people.
I think most people would take it with a guarantee that once they're had it they don't have to live any longer under any restrictions. Simply saying take this and we can return to normality soon won't cut it.

is_that_so · 28-11-2020 11:23am

drunkmonkey wrote: »

One we have the at risk and care workers etc vaccinated, what % of healthy people will need to get it, do we know, I'm assuming the 50% odd that say they won't get it are mainly healthy people.
I think most people would take it with a guarantee that once they're had it they don't have to live any longer under any restrictions. Simply saying take this and we can return to normality soon won't cut it.

70% seems to be the number they talk about for herd immunity so that is probably the target. I agree on restrictions, they will go once we get to a reasonable level of vaccinated. Summer 2021 for me should do that but easing from Feb/March if we have shots.

timsey tiger · 28-11-2020 11:24am

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Speaking of the UK

https://twitter.com/oconnellhugh/status/1332413982590820360?s=19

I wonder how that would go down with the shinners up north?

Marhay70 · 28-11-2020 11:27am

timsey tiger wrote: »

I wonder how that would go down with the shinners up north?

I wouldn't care if I had to kiss the Queen's ar*e

drunkmonkey · 28-11-2020 11:34am

is_that_so wrote: »

70% seems to be the number they talk about for herd immunity so that is probably the target. I agree on restrictions, they will go once we get to a reasonable level of vaccinated. Summer 2021 for me should do that but easing from Feb/March if we have shots.

I sincerely hope your right.

hmmm · 28-11-2020 11:48am

Some interesting reading this morning:

- United Airlines has started flying batches of Pfizer's vaccine around the US, ready for rapid distribution if approval is given - https://www.wsj.com/articles/united-begins-flying-pfizers-covid-19-vaccine-11606512293
- Common cold coronaviruses react with SARSCoV2, but don't seem to make much difference to immune response. This was a big claim from the "we already have herd immunity" group earlier this year - https://www.cell.com/immunity/fulltext/S1074-7613(20)30503-3
- Fauci says to take the vaccine even if you've already have the virus. There's a number of people on the vaccine trials who had already been infected, so the regulators will have safety data - https://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/coronavirus/article247454710.html

Gael23 · 28-11-2020 11:59am

Will we be seeing companies like Pfizer and Moderna sell rights to the vaccine to other drug manufacturers to rapidly increase production?

drunkmonkey · 28-11-2020 12:01pm

hmmm wrote: »

- Common cold coronaviruses react with SARSCoV2, but don't seem to make much difference to immune response. This was a big claim from the "we already have herd immunity" group earlier this year

How do they know the immune response isn't from the persons own underlying immunity as opposed to the vaccine?
As far as i'm aware were not a point where they can test for t-cell's, Could it be the case the vaccine may be claiming credit for something it might not have done, not sure what % that may be, with all the asymptomatic people there is a percentage of the population with resistance from it.
For example most of us have had the BCG vaccine are Pfizer taking some credit for the immunity it's given and accrediting it to the vaccine?

"They found that workers who had received BCG vaccinations in the past - nearly 30 per cent of those studied - were significantly less likely to test positive for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in their blood or to report having had infections with coronavirus or coronavirus-associated symptoms over the prior six months than those who had not received them."

These effects were not related to whether workers had received meningococcal, pneumococcal or influenza vaccinations.

Read more at:
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/magazines/panache/bcg-vaccine-used-to-treat-tuberculosis-can-lower-the-risk-of-contracting-covid-says-study/articleshow/79384371.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

28-11-2020 12:34pm

drunkmonkey wrote: »

How do they know the immune response isn't from the persons own underlying immunity as opposed to the vaccine?
As far as i'm aware were not a point where they can test for t-cell's, Could it be the case the vaccine may be claiming credit for something it might not have done, not sure what % that may be, with all the asymptomatic people there is a percentage of the population with resistance from it.
For example most of us have had the BCG vaccine are Pfizer taking some credit for the immunity it's given and accrediting it to the vaccine?

"They found that workers who had received BCG vaccinations in the past - nearly 30 per cent of those studied - were significantly less likely to test positive for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in their blood or to report having had infections with coronavirus or coronavirus-associated symptoms over the prior six months than those who had not received them."

These effects were not related to whether workers had received meningococcal, pneumococcal or influenza vaccinations.

Read more at:
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/magazines/panache/bcg-vaccine-used-to-treat-tuberculosis-can-lower-the-risk-of-contracting-covid-says-study/articleshow/79384371.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

The trial is randomised that means there is an equal chance of a person in the vaccine group having had the BCG as there is in the placebo group.

The results of the trial are a comparison between the two groups, so any effect the BCG vaccine might have is equal across both groups and as such won't effect the efficacy read out.

COVID-19: Vaccine/antidote and testing procedures Megathread [Mod Warning - Post #1]

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