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COVID-19: Vaccine/antidote and testing procedures Megathread [Mod Warning - Post #1]

Masala

Today being Paddy Day 2020... when do you think we will have a ‘flu jab’ / pill / syrup that we can take to make us immune/ les likely to catch this 19 virus?.

Mod: The purpose of this thread is baked into the title - COVID-19: Vaccine/antidote and testing procedures - it's not a platform to push an anti vaccination agenda. If posters wish to discuss the perceived cons of vaccinations, or push various theories regarding 'the agenda' (whatever that is supposed to mean), open a thread elsewhere on it.

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ShineOn7

Deleted User wrote: »

Public Health England have published a provisional list of conditions for priority vaccination:

Morbid obesity
Adults with a Body Mass Index ≥40 kg/m².

I can see that one causing uproar

And rightly so

stephenjmcd

Speaking of the UK

https://twitter.com/oconnellhugh/status/1332413982590820360?s=19

[Deleted User]

ShineOn7 wrote: »

I can see that one causing uproar

And rightly so

Hate to put it like this, but that opinion is boll*cks. This is about preventing illness, preventing hospitalisations and ultimately to prevent death. To so callously dismiss people like that is inhuman and shameful.

Russman

Stheno wrote: »

Hospitals in England told prepare to vaccinate HCW with Pfizer vaccine in ten days

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/27/hospitals-england-told-prepare-early-december-covid-vaccine-rollout-nhs

If it’s true that it can only be moved 4 times, it creates an awkward constraint with regard to getting it into nursing homes. Bit if a logistical nightmare if they have to commute the residents to a vaccination hub safely.

Russman

ShineOn7 wrote: »

I can see that one causing uproar

And rightly so

Why ?

Stheno

Russman wrote: »

If it’s true that it can only be moved 4 times, it creates an awkward constraint with regard to getting it into nursing homes. Bit if a logistical nightmare if they have to commute the residents to a vaccination hub safely.

Vaccinate care home staff via clinics instead?

Stheno

ShineOn7 wrote: »

I can see that one causing uproar

And rightly so

Why?
Obesity is known to be a risk factor for Covid?

Russman

Stheno wrote: »

Vaccinate care home staff via clinics instead?

Yeah I guess so. Not an insurmountable problem of course, just will need good planning with a short enough shelf life of the vaccine once it’s thawed out and if it can only be moved 4 times.
There’d be no room for short notice cancellations !

ShineOn7

Russman wrote: »

Why ?

Stheno wrote: »

Why?
Obesity is known to be a risk factor for Covid?

There's surely people that deserve to be ahead of them in the queue

All over 70s for a start

Deeper Blue

ShineOn7 wrote: »

There's surely people that deserve to be ahead of them in the queue

All over 70s for a start

I'd have thought the same, but I wonder is a young morbidly obese person more at risk than a healthy 70 year old? Or more likely to be hospitalized?

Stheno

ShineOn7 wrote: »

There's surely people that deserve to be ahead of them in the queue

All over 70s for a start

Ah I didn't notice they were ahead of the over 70s

ShineOn7

El Sueño wrote: »

I'd have thought the same, but I wonder is a young morbidly obese person more at risk than a healthy 70 year old? Or more likely to be hospitalized?

There will be ructions if the over 70s don't get it before morbidly obese

Not all of the latter will be in their condition because of lifestyle choices. But some will

And they should get it before a 75 year old man in a nursing home?

Not a chance

Hopefully there are enough vaccines by February/March to avoid choices like this having to be made

[Deleted User]

ShineOn7 wrote: »

There will be ructions if the over 70s don't get it before morbidly obese

Not all of the latter will be in their condition because of lifestyle choices. But some will

And they should get it before a 75 year old man in a nursing home?

Not a chance

Hopefully there are enough vaccines by February/March to avoid choices like this having to be made

Those conditions that were listed are 6th on the priority list, anyone over 65 is ahead of them.

PCeeeee

Fodla wrote: »

Because even countries that have dealt with it still have masks. I'm just saying that there's no evidence to suggest that they will ever be got rid of. But that could change.

Deleted as Mod instruction

daheff

RugbyLad11 wrote: »

Seems quite slow, hopefully it won't be this slow.

I believe the UK said they will vacinate all eldery and HCW by January?

Spain says they plan to have the entire population vaccinated by spring

Good luck to Spain. And just where do they think they will get all the vaccine doses to do that? Have they signed some agreement to out them to head of the queue?

Pfizer look likely to manufacture 150m doses per month. People need 2 doses. That 150 is for the whole world. 4 months manufacturing would be required for the US alone...more for Europe. And that's before you take into account logistics of shipping and physically vaccinating people.

Granted multiple vaccines increase the amount of doses available, but not all will suit a region(cost, storage at very cold temps etc).

More likely end 2021/ first half 2022 before we get a majority vaccinated in my opinion.

dominatinMC

Micky 32 wrote: »

I see prof Horgan downplaying the vaccines, just merely tools along with our behaviours. If this vaccine doesn’t work expect the rest of our lives to be just as an existence while listening to George Lee and the taiseacht with his Friday speeches on what we can’t do, f*****g depressing future...

Ah come on now, George Lee's time in the limelight is slowly but surely coming to an end with the vaccines on the horizon. I'm not surprised by Prof. Horgan as she seems to be one of the more conservative academics. I didn't see/hear the piece you're referring to but I'd guess she's saying we need to be vigilant for a period post-vaccination for the vaccines to actually take effect. Then normality resumes. How could it not? At the end of the day, we have >90% efficacy vaccines, that's unbelievable and sometimes I have to remind myself that humans actually developed these in under a year.
Some people wouldn't be happy if we had 100% and would still find the negativity, but most seem to acknowledge that we're on the road to recovery. Keep the faith!

is_that_so

daheff wrote: »

Good luck to Spain. And just where do they think they will get all the vaccine doses to do that? Have they signed some agreement to out them to head of the queue?

Pfizer look likely to manufacture 150m doses per month. People need 2 doses. That 150 is for the whole world. 4 months manufacturing would be required for the US alone...more for Europe. And that's before you take into account logistics of shipping and physically vaccinating people.

Granted multiple vaccines increase the amount of doses available, but not all will suit a region(cost, storage at very cold temps etc).

More likely end 2021/ first half 2022 before we get a majority vaccinated in my opinion.

If all 3 are approved (Chinese and Russian ones will also quite likely play a part globally) that's a reasonable number of doses available immediately. They will all go from low millions to huge numbers very quickly. More vaccines will follow in 2021. We don't need everyone vaccinated. All high risk and then north of 70% in 2021 should do the job.

speckle

El Sueño wrote: »

I'd have thought the same, but I wonder is a young morbidly obese person more at risk than a healthy 70 year old? Or more likely to be hospitalized?

I wondered to... then I remembered the german government stats for the over 80s...89% average recovery rate. Even higher in those who are healthy and lower for those with co morbidtys and frailer which are more likely to be in nursing homes.

Not saying right or wrong... probably they have a risk list and those on that list all higher except medical staff and then maybe healthy over 70s would be next?

I think a list showing % death/survival and timespent recovering in or out of hospital hours should be published so people can see why the list is as it is, for the less obvious exclusions

daheff

speckle wrote: »

I wondered to... then I remembered the german government stats for the over 80s...89% average recovery rate. Even higher in those who are healthy and lower for those with co morbidtys and frailer which are more likely to be in nursing homes.

Not saying right or wrong... probably they have a risk list and those on that list all higher except medical staff and then maybe healthy over 70s would be next?

I think a list showing % death/survival and timespent recovering in or out of hospital hours should be published so people can see why the list is as it is, for the less obvious exclusions

German vaccination plans include using the army to do it due to the sheer numbers requiring the vaccine

It'd be interesting to see the roll out plan here

drunkmonkey

is_that_so wrote: »

. We don't need everyone vaccinated. All high risk and then north of 70% in 2021 should do the job.

One we have the at risk and care workers etc vaccinated, what % of healthy people will need to get it, do we know, I'm assuming the 50% odd that say they won't get it are mainly healthy people.
I think most people would take it with a guarantee that once they're had it they don't have to live any longer under any restrictions. Simply saying take this and we can return to normality soon won't cut it.

is_that_so

drunkmonkey wrote: »

One we have the at risk and care workers etc vaccinated, what % of healthy people will need to get it, do we know, I'm assuming the 50% odd that say they won't get it are mainly healthy people.
I think most people would take it with a guarantee that once they're had it they don't have to live any longer under any restrictions. Simply saying take this and we can return to normality soon won't cut it.

70% seems to be the number they talk about for herd immunity so that is probably the target. I agree on restrictions, they will go once we get to a reasonable level of vaccinated. Summer 2021 for me should do that but easing from Feb/March if we have shots.

timsey tiger

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Speaking of the UK

https://twitter.com/oconnellhugh/status/1332413982590820360?s=19

I wonder how that would go down with the shinners up north?

Marhay70

timsey tiger wrote: »

I wonder how that would go down with the shinners up north?

I wouldn't care if I had to kiss the Queen's ar*e

drunkmonkey

is_that_so wrote: »

70% seems to be the number they talk about for herd immunity so that is probably the target. I agree on restrictions, they will go once we get to a reasonable level of vaccinated. Summer 2021 for me should do that but easing from Feb/March if we have shots.

I sincerely hope your right.

hmmm

Some interesting reading this morning:

- United Airlines has started flying batches of Pfizer's vaccine around the US, ready for rapid distribution if approval is given - https://www.wsj.com/articles/united-begins-flying-pfizers-covid-19-vaccine-11606512293
- Common cold coronaviruses react with SARSCoV2, but don't seem to make much difference to immune response. This was a big claim from the "we already have herd immunity" group earlier this year - https://www.cell.com/immunity/fulltext/S1074-7613(20)30503-3
- Fauci says to take the vaccine even if you've already have the virus. There's a number of people on the vaccine trials who had already been infected, so the regulators will have safety data - https://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/coronavirus/article247454710.html

Gael23

Will we be seeing companies like Pfizer and Moderna sell rights to the vaccine to other drug manufacturers to rapidly increase production?

drunkmonkey

hmmm wrote: »

- Common cold coronaviruses react with SARSCoV2, but don't seem to make much difference to immune response. This was a big claim from the "we already have herd immunity" group earlier this year

How do they know the immune response isn't from the persons own underlying immunity as opposed to the vaccine?
As far as i'm aware were not a point where they can test for t-cell's, Could it be the case the vaccine may be claiming credit for something it might not have done, not sure what % that may be, with all the asymptomatic people there is a percentage of the population with resistance from it.
For example most of us have had the BCG vaccine are Pfizer taking some credit for the immunity it's given and accrediting it to the vaccine?

"They found that workers who had received BCG vaccinations in the past - nearly 30 per cent of those studied - were significantly less likely to test positive for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in their blood or to report having had infections with coronavirus or coronavirus-associated symptoms over the prior six months than those who had not received them."

These effects were not related to whether workers had received meningococcal, pneumococcal or influenza vaccinations.

Read more at:
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/magazines/panache/bcg-vaccine-used-to-treat-tuberculosis-can-lower-the-risk-of-contracting-covid-says-study/articleshow/79384371.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

[Deleted User]

drunkmonkey wrote: »

How do they know the immune response isn't from the persons own underlying immunity as opposed to the vaccine?
As far as i'm aware were not a point where they can test for t-cell's, Could it be the case the vaccine may be claiming credit for something it might not have done, not sure what % that may be, with all the asymptomatic people there is a percentage of the population with resistance from it.
For example most of us have had the BCG vaccine are Pfizer taking some credit for the immunity it's given and accrediting it to the vaccine?

"They found that workers who had received BCG vaccinations in the past - nearly 30 per cent of those studied - were significantly less likely to test positive for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in their blood or to report having had infections with coronavirus or coronavirus-associated symptoms over the prior six months than those who had not received them."

These effects were not related to whether workers had received meningococcal, pneumococcal or influenza vaccinations.

Read more at:
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/magazines/panache/bcg-vaccine-used-to-treat-tuberculosis-can-lower-the-risk-of-contracting-covid-says-study/articleshow/79384371.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

The trial is randomised that means there is an equal chance of a person in the vaccine group having had the BCG as there is in the placebo group.

The results of the trial are a comparison between the two groups, so any effect the BCG vaccine might have is equal across both groups and as such won't effect the efficacy read out.

drunkmonkey

Deleted User wrote: »

The trial is randomised that means there is an equal chance of a person in the vaccine group having had the BCG as there is in the placebo group.

The results of the trial are a comparison between the two groups, so any effect the BCG vaccine might have is equal across both groups and as such won't effect the efficacy read out.

There couldn't be an equal chance as different countries had different regulations around it. Like for example here, 100% of under 5's might not have had it which is the case. Also 100% of over 80's might not have had it either.

Hmmzis

drunkmonkey wrote: »

There couldn't be an equal chance as different countries had different regulations around it. Like for example here, 100% of under 5's might not have had it which is the case. Also 100% of over 80's might not have had it either.

Moderna and Pfizer were run in the US and Oxford was in UK and Brazil. You could compare the BCG vaccination statistics between the countries and see if you can make the 30 odd percentage difference go away. Though I think it's very unlikely to explain that difference.