Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie

COVID-19: Vaccine/antidote and testing procedures Megathread [Mod Warning - Post #1]

1…204205207209210…325

Comments

  • #6182
    Cork2021
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,420 ✭✭✭Cork2021


    Now I know it’s the Daily Express but are we looking at 99% efficacy from the Oxford Vaccine might know more tomorrow all going well...
    https://storify.com/services/proxy/2/djYlFKbkFhJHmYUQiL1Dzg/https/media.fyre.co/LVrbmhlQTFOmnCU4X5ie_express.jpg

    Edit: 99% produced antibodies. Also says phase 2 trials but we’ve got those results haven’t we?


  • #6183
    Thierry12
    Closed Accounts Posts: 979 ✭✭✭Thierry12


    Anyone know what's going on in South Australia?

    6 day lockdown to stop a new mutated coronavirus with 24hr incubation period

    That can't be right?

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/covid-19-coronavirus-why-south-australia-locked-down-new-terrifying-virus-strain-revealed/V3A2VEMAGE2ZB3D654CQATEY7Y/?fbclid=IwAR0yZr8beBqxJjSsoA7rGmH5JDswXvqqlBQGBIuRuC_6Le4im-NaXn7rutk


  • #6184
    timsey tiger
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,768 ✭✭✭timsey tiger


    Thierry12 wrote: »
    Pretty crazy stats anyway from a highly contagious disease

    20,000 trialists vaccinated

    10,000 placebos given

    Less than 100 infections total in a few months

    10 badly sick

    0 deaths

    If you you didn't know anything about Covid, and read this study in 2010 ,you'd ask why are they doing it

    They picked countries where the disease was prevalent too.

    I guess pretty strong self selection involved in signing up for a vaccine program. It is not that difficult for most people to significantly reduce their chances of catching it if so minded.


  • #6185
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 2,827 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Infografik_Antigentest_PDF.pdf;jsessionid=A1D785311330BF507400D8E08B1E5F5C.internet101?__blob=publicationFile
    German report on the effectiveness of antigen tests from Robert Koch Institute who inform the German Government and on which German policy is based.

    If mass testing is done using Antigen then when testing a group of 10,000 people en-masse with 5 people in that group of 10,000 then 1 person will slip through and 4 caught. 200 will test false-positive and need to go for PCR test.

    NPHET don't want even one person slipping in so 9999 people must not book a flight to travel home and see their families this Christmas.


  • #6186
    timsey tiger
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,768 ✭✭✭timsey tiger


    Cork2021 wrote: »
    Now I know it’s the Daily Express but are we looking at 99% efficacy from the Oxford Vaccine might know more tomorrow all going well...
    https://storify.com/services/proxy/2/djYlFKbkFhJHmYUQiL1Dzg/https/media.fyre.co/LVrbmhlQTFOmnCU4X5ie_express.jpg

    That would be very surprising in a good way.


  • Advertisement
  • #6187
    Thierry12
    Closed Accounts Posts: 979 ✭✭✭Thierry12


    timsey tiger wrote: »
    I guess pretty strong self selection involved in signing up for a vaccine program. It is not that difficult for most people to significantly reduce their chances of catching it if so minded.

    True

    Scaled up the 10,000 placbo group if it were a country with 5m population would have had 450 hospitalisations, 8000 cases in a few months


  • #6188
    Stark
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,176 ✭✭✭✭Stark


    Cork2021 wrote: »
    Now I know it’s the Daily Express but are we looking at 99% efficacy from the Oxford Vaccine might know more tomorrow all going well...
    https://storify.com/services/proxy/2/djYlFKbkFhJHmYUQiL1Dzg/https/media.fyre.co/LVrbmhlQTFOmnCU4X5ie_express.jpg

    Edit: 99% produced antibodies. Also says phase 2 trials but we’ve got those results haven’t we?

    Yup, had the phase 2 results ages ago. Though assuming the antibodies produced are for the same spike protein as the Moderns/Pfizer vaccines, I'd be very optimistic for the Oxford vaccine.


  • #6189
    Cork2021
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,420 ✭✭✭Cork2021


    Stark wrote: »
    Yup, had the phase 2 results ages ago.

    Looking at twitter it looks like the daily express broke an embargo on the news as well.


  • #6190
    Stark
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,176 ✭✭✭✭Stark


    Never change Daily express, never change.


  • #6191
    lbj666
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,027 ✭✭✭lbj666


    AssetBacked2 wrote: »
    You've made a few big leaps there.

    If we assume, as you have, that it was 0.3% hospitalisations and we've had 5000 this year, then would it not mean only another 9700 left? With level 3 causing cases to decrease, these 9700 would be spread out so a vaccine is a "nice to have" tool but, as you say "Anyone who thinks just vaccinating the at risk brings an end to this has not been following this or choose to ignore vital elements suit them".

    5000 i mentioned was across all ages. But 3% to 0.3% is a huge leap aswell, sounds very optimisitic to expect a 10 fold drop in severity too along with infections, but with news going in the right direction thats becoming a closer to realistic by the day i suppose.

    Off course there are other mitigations i don't even mention, at risk groups will still be told to be careful, nursing homes will still have limited visitors. Treatments are improving month by month.

    Just cause we get nearly all the at risk up on high ground is still not reason to let the floodgates open up.


  • Advertisement
  • #6192
    ixoy
    Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 18,042 Mod ✭✭✭✭ixoy


    Not sure if it's been posted yet, but for the Pfizer study those participating were not actively tested but self monitored and tested as required. Noteworthy in itself in that the vaccine might be even more effective than we realise. My source is a participant here. It's not official but the site's generally very solidly backed.


  • #6193
    AssetBacked2
    Closed Accounts Posts: 232 ✭✭AssetBacked2


    lbj666 wrote: »
    5000 i mentioned was across all ages. But 3% to 0.3% is a huge leap aswell, sounds very optimisitic to expect a 10 fold drop in severity too along with infections, but with news going in the right direction thats becoming a closer to realistic by the day i suppose.

    Off course there are other mitigations i don't even mention, at risk groups will still be told to be careful, nursing homes will still have limited visitors. Treatments are improving month by month.

    Just cause we get nearly all the at risk up on high ground is still not reason to let the floodgates open up.

    Not yet but there appears to be a time once the vaccine gets rolled out to the most vulnerable where we can let the floodgates open as what is left will be manageable. Months at this stage.


  • #6194
    lbj666
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,027 ✭✭✭lbj666


    [HTML][/HTML]
    Cork2021 wrote: »
    Looking at twitter it looks like the daily express broke an embargo on the news as well.

    So Daily Express' news on Astra Zeneca is not actually news?


  • #6195
    mandrake04
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,435 ✭✭✭mandrake04


    Thierry12 wrote: »
    Anyone know what's going on in South Australia?

    6 day lockdown to stop a new mutated coronavirus with 24hr incubation period

    That can't be right?

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/covid-19-coronavirus-why-south-australia-locked-down-new-terrifying-virus-strain-revealed/V3A2VEMAGE2ZB3D654CQATEY7Y/?fbclid=IwAR0yZr8beBqxJjSsoA7rGmH5JDswXvqqlBQGBIuRuC_6Le4im-NaXn7rutk

    Yeah a cleaner from a medi-hotel got infected, spread it to 14 family members and then a further 7 people were infected. SA health contact traced 4000 people but not sure if they got everyone so closed off the state borders and 6 day no nonsense lockdown to avoid a Melbourne situation. It seems the incubation time is very quick.

    The strain was sequenced and originally traced to a traveller who came from the UK, no cases today in South Australia.


  • #6196
    CIARAN_BOYLE
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,599 ✭✭✭✭CIARAN_BOYLE


    Deleted User wrote: »

    NPHET don't want even one person slipping in so 9999 people must not book a flight to travel home and see their families this Christmas.

    One person passes it onto a dozen on the plane. All 13 think I'm safe I had a test. I'm negative.

    They then stay with close family and visit distant family and friends.

    Suddenly you have 13 big clusters spreading around the country.

    Also like the PCR test the antigen test doesn't show incubating cases.


  • #6197
    Mark1916
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 524 ✭✭✭Mark1916


    https://t.co/r9eslDAOpc

    Covid: Oxford vaccine shows 'encouraging' immune response in older adults


  • #6198
    tobefrank321
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,527 ✭✭✭tobefrank321


    More good news with positive implications for vaccines.

    https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/health/immunity-to-coronavirus-could-last-for-months-if-not-years-scientists-find-39764633.html

    Unsurprisingly RTE haven't covered it. Not sensationalist enough.


  • #6199
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 2,827 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »
    One person passes it onto a dozen on the plane. All 13 think I'm safe I had a test. I'm negative.

    They then stay with close family and visit distant family and friends.

    Suddenly you have 13 big clusters spreading around the country.

    Also like the PCR test the antigen test doesn't show incubating cases.
    Your contribution is not scientifically proven. In fact it appears that the opposite is the case.
    There is no evidence to suggest that the virus spreads easily within a plane where the air is continuously FILTERED and air generally travels from overhead downward to the filtering air recirculation system.


  • #6200
    Loafing Oaf
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,831 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Your contribution is not scientifically proven. In fact it appears that the opposite is the case.
    There is no evidence to suggest that the virus spreads easily within a plane where the air is continuously FILTERED and air generally travels from overhead downward to the filtering air recirculation system.

    Ciaran seems to be basing his hyphothetical on this real-world case:

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/transmission-of-covid-19-on-flight-into-ireland-linked-to-59-infections-1.4390728
    Inflight transmission of Covid-19 may have resulted in the infection of 59 people across the State, including 13 passengers on the same long-distance flight, according to a new study.
    The outbreak occurred despite low levels of occupancy on the long-haul flight, the fact that different groups of passengers who tested positive were not sitting near each other and the fact that most were wearing masks, the study notes.


  • #6201
    JimmyVik
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,367 ✭✭✭JimmyVik


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Your contribution is not scientifically proven. In fact it appears that the opposite is the case.
    There is no evidence to suggest that the virus spreads easily within a plane where the air is continuously FILTERED and air generally travels from overhead downward to the filtering air recirculation system.


    I thought this was interesting.


    https://paxex.aero/2020/10/researchers-link-59-irish-covid-cases-to-inbound-long-haul-flight/


  • Advertisement
  • #6202
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 2,827 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Loafing Oaf wrote: »
    Ciaran seems to be basing his hyphothetical on this real-world case:

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/transmission-of-covid-19-on-flight-into-ireland-linked-to-59-infections-1.4390728
    modal verb "may" used in that report. Paper won't refuse ink.


  • #6203
    dominatinMC
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,130 ✭✭✭dominatinMC


    tobefrank321 wrote: »
    More good news with positive implications for vaccines.

    https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/health/immunity-to-coronavirus-could-last-for-months-if-not-years-scientists-find-39764633.html

    Unsurprisingly RTE haven't covered it. Not sensationalist enough.

    Instead RTE are focusing on the mink farm cull. Headline news on Claire Byrne now, nice and dramatic, fits the bill nicely.


  • #6204
    Russman
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,977 ✭✭✭Russman


    Question from a layman's perspective,

    If all (?) the vaccine candidates are targeting this infamous spike protein on the coronavirus, and its the spike that the immune system is reacting to, is it reasonable to expect the most of the candidates will likely show similar results to the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines ? or does the delivery method matter ?

    Obviously we have to wait for results to show real world data, I'm just mildly curious as to the theory behind it all.


  • #6205
    mean gene
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 875 ✭✭✭mean gene


    dominatinMC wrote: »
    Instead RTE are focusing on the mink farm cull. Headline news on Claire Byrne now, nice and dramatic, fits the bill nicely.

    someone should put up a thread on rtes dooms day bullsh1t be interesting

    they have been a complete disgrace since this thing started how many pensioners rely on them for news


  • #6206
    Stark
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,176 ✭✭✭✭Stark


    lbj666 wrote: »
    [HTML][/HTML]

    So Daily Express' news on Astra Zeneca is not actually news?

    Irish Post are at it now as well. Regurgitating the phase 2 results announcement from earlier in the year as if it was fresh news.


  • #6207
    Thierry12
    Closed Accounts Posts: 979 ✭✭✭Thierry12


    mean gene wrote: »
    someone should put up a thread on rtes dooms day bullsh1t be interesting

    they have been a complete disgrace since this thing started how many pensioners rely on them for news

    Definitely should be a thread for that propaganda station RTE

    In the UK, BBC have a great documentary out about SAGE called Lockdown 1.0, they are similar to our NPHET and BBC have shamed them badly ;-)

    They used Wikipedia to get information on Covid19 and based projections on it

    If a kid in college even referenced Wikipedia in an assignment it would be instantly disregarded and they'd get a telling off

    Would RTE do a program on NPHET questioning them?

    GP Tony
    Physio Glen

    Only virology experience they have is prescribing calpol


  • #6208
    froog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,784 ✭✭✭froog


    Thierry12 wrote: »

    They picked countries where the disease was prevalent too.

    That's the whole point. Why would you trial a vaccine somewhere with little or no covid?


  • #6209
    CIARAN_BOYLE
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,599 ✭✭✭✭CIARAN_BOYLE


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Your contribution is not scientifically proven. In fact it appears that the opposite is the case.
    There is no evidence to suggest that the virus spreads easily within a plane where the air is continuously FILTERED and air generally travels from overhead downward to the filtering air recirculation system.

    Block capitals on FILTERED doesnt make it a more viable answer. Is there disinfectants that kill viruses cleaning the air in this filter?

    I've enough doubt on the safety of plane travel to be happy with less people travelling.

    That's the worst case scenario.

    Either way people travelling with a negative test are unlikely to obey restrictions because they have a negative test. People with a negative test wont feel a need to or take precautiond. That's the main reason I'm not happy with antigen tests.

    Less travel means things will get better for us sooner.

    I've had close friends travel and been unable to see them as they needed to restrict movements for 2 weeks. It sucks.


  • #6210
    Thierry12
    Closed Accounts Posts: 979 ✭✭✭Thierry12


    froog wrote: »
    That's the whole point. Why would you trial a vaccine somewhere with little or no covid?

    Did I disagree or something?

    What's your point?


  • Advertisement
  • #6211
    Hmmzis
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,004 ✭✭✭Hmmzis


    tobefrank321 wrote: »
    More good news with positive implications for vaccines.

    https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/health/immunity-to-coronavirus-could-last-for-months-if-not-years-scientists-find-39764633.html

    Unsurprisingly RTE haven't covered it. Not sensationalist enough.

    I think this is the study they're referencing there:

    https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.15.383323v1.full.pdf

    I think it was linked up-thread already, just that there is this little tidbit in there that most seem to have missed entirely (someone pointed it out on Reddit):
    Nevertheless, some reasonable interpretations
    can be made. Antibodies are the only component of immune memory that can provide truly sterilizing
    immunity. Immunization studies in non-human primates have indicated that circulating neutralization
    titers of ~200 may provide sterilizing immunity against a relatively high dose URT challenge (62), and
    neutralizing titers of ~3,400 may provide sterilizing immunity against a very high dose URT challenge
    (63), although direct comparisons are not possible because the neutralizing antibody assays have not
    been standardized (3)

    Ref 62 is J&J NHP challenge study: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2607-z

    Ref 63 is Monderna's NHP challenge study: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2024671

    My interpretation of this taken together with the phase 3 data we have so far is that there will be quite a significant proportion of people who will get sterilizing protection from the current vaccine candidates under normal every day conditions.
    Just as a note, 1 PFU for SARS-cov-2 is around 1000 viral particles, so 200k PFUs would be 200 million viral particles (this is closer to what RT-PCR measures, though RNA copies != viral particles).


This discussion has been closed.
Advertisement