Relaxation of Restrictions, Part VI - Read OP for Mod Warnings

AssetBacked2 · 17-11-2020 01:00PM

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Latest questioning I heard was

"CMO do you think there is a chance we will have somewhat of a normal Christmas this year?"

:rolleyes:

There are so many simple-minded people who need to buy in to this one, single goal and it has to be easy for their minds to comprehend so they reduce the crisis to; "I want to endure this lockdown so that Christmas can be salvaged".

Nothing else matters day-to-day like the fact that pubs, restaurants and shops are closed, people have to stay 5km from their home, cannot fly abroad or even socialise with anyone who is not in their household. These are severe restrictions, with not a lot of data to back them up, yet some people seem to think like it is a Hollywood movie, "We need to save Christmas".

The same people are also the ones that do not realise that the same watery ground on which the decision to go into Level 5 was based will be relied on again to still only have the country in level 3 instead of level 1 or 2 (which it absolutely should be in).

AssetBacked2 · 17-11-2020 01:08PM

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/government-plan-to-fine-outdoor-drinkers-is-put-on-hold-1.4411551

Government plan to fine outdoor drinkers is put on hold

Minister for Health Stephen Donnelly has withdrawn a memo for Cabinet seeking to curtail the circumstances in which people can gather to drink alcohol.

The proposals brought to Cabinet would have made it an offence, punishable by an €80 fine, for two or more people to gather outdoors where one of them is drinking alcohol.

However, there was resistance from The Greens and Fine Gael at the Cabinet table this morning and it was decided there wasn’t sufficient support for the measure to proceed.

It is understood the memo was drawn up at instigation of the Department of the Taoiseach and in conjunction with the Attorney General.

The memo envisaged a ban on two or more people meeting outdoors to drink takeaway alcohol.

On Monday, it was initially reported that new regulations would prevent pubs from serving takeaway drinks.

However, those reports met with resistance from within Government parties, sources said.

Prominent backbencher Barry Cowen, the former Minister for Agriculture, was among the figures to criticise the idea.

Common f**king sense. Now open the bloody pubs.

rob316 · 17-11-2020 01:14PM

I was reading about Prof Lambert sending that letter to government yesterday and I wanted to see who actually sits on NPHET.
Is this a joke? Where are the scientists and epidemiologists? It seems to be just GP's and HSE management.

Dr Tony Holohan (Chair) Chief Medical Officer, Department of Health (DOH
Prof Colm Bergin – Consultant Infectious Diseases, St. James’s Hospital and Professor of Medicine, Trinity College Dublin
Mr Paul Bolger – Director, Resources Division, DOH
Dr Eibhlin Connolly – Deputy Chief Medical Officer, DOH
Ms Tracey Conroy – A/Sec, Acute Hospitals Division, DOH
Dr John Cuddihy – Interim Director, Health Protection Surveillance Centre (HPSC)
Dr Cillian de Gascun - Director, National Virus Reference Laboratory (NVRL), UCD, Consultant Virologist
Mr Colm Desmond – A/Sec, Corporate Legislation, Mental Health, Drugs Policy and Food Safety Division, DOH
Dr Lorraine Doherty – National Clinical Director for Health Protection, HPSC, HSE
Dr Mary Favier – President Irish College of General Practitioners (ICGP)
Dr Ronan Glynn – Deputy Chief Medical Officer, DOH
Mr Fergal Goodman – A/Sec, Primary Care Division, DOH
Dr Colm Henry – Chief Clinical Officer, HSE
Dr Kevin Kelleher – Asst. National Director, Public Health, HSE
Ms Marita Kinsella – Director, National Patient Safety Office, DOH
Mr David Leach – Deputy National Director of Communications, HSE
Dr Kathleen Mac Lellan – A/Sec, Social Care Division, DOH
Dr Jeanette Mc Callion – Medical Assessor, Health Products Regulatory Authority (HPRA)
Mr Tom McGuinness – Asst. National Director, Office of Emergency Planning, HSE
Dr Siobhán Ní Bhrian – Lead for Integrated Care, HSE Prof Philip Nolan President, National University of Ireland, Maynooth
Ms Kate O’Flaherty – Head of Health and Wellbeing, DOH
Dr Darina O’Flanagan – Special Advisor to the NPHET, DOH
Dr Siobhan O’Sullivan – Chief Bioethics Officer, DOH
Dr Michael Power – National Clinical Lead, Critical Care Programme, HSE Consultant in Anaesthetics / Intensive Care Medicine, Beaumont Hospital
Mr Phelim Quinn – Chief Executive Officer, HIQA
Dr Máirín Ryan – Deputy Chief Executive and Director of Health Technology Assessment, HIQA
Dr Alan Smith – Deputy Chief Medical Officer, DOH
Dr Breda Smyth – Director of Public Health Medicine, HSE
Mr David Walsh – National Director, Community Operations, HSE
Ms Deirdre Watters – Head of Communications, DOH
Mr Liam Woods – National Director, Acute Operations, HSE

I've highlighted two members who might actually have experience in pandemics and viruses.

Stormyteacup · 17-11-2020 01:14PM

AssetBacked2 wrote: »

There are so many simple-minded people who need to buy in to this one, single goal and it has to be easy for their minds to comprehend so they reduce the crisis to; "I want to endure this lockdown so that Christmas can be salvaged".

Nothing else matters day-to-day like the fact that pubs, restaurants and shops are closed, people have to stay 5km from their home, cannot fly abroad or even socialise with anyone who is not in their household. These are severe restrictions, with not a lot of data to back them up, yet some people seem to think like it is a Hollywood movie, "We need to save Christmas".

The same people are also the ones that do not realise that the same watery ground on which the decision to go into Level 5 was based will be relied on again to still only have the country in level 3 instead of level 1 or 2 (which it absolutely should be in).

An evolution of ‘save lives’ . A strong feel-good factor when people pull together for a good cause. Gives meaning to sacrifice and value to individual importance.

There is a psychology of cult behaviour evident to varying degrees.

Lundstram · 17-11-2020 01:20PM

What really pisses me off is the fact we had on the news, yes on our useless national TV channel, RTE, a group of clowns in Ballina, Mayo out celebrating "their own" Joe Biden's victory on the street drinking Champagne, very little social distancing. Not a word said or eye-lid batted but outrage, outrage, outrage at a group of granny killing young people drinking in Dublin at the weekend.

We had it back in the summer with the BLM protests, thousands there. Not a word about that. But more outrage at a bar in Dublin which was attended by about 40 people. Talk of removing licences forever and all that bullsh1t.

It shocks me how we talk about and treat young people in this country during this pandemic and I'm neither under 25 or have children. They have been hit the hardest in terms of restrictions and they will be paying for this for years to come. The dickheads moralising about them on Facebook on Twitter no doubt have hardly had their already sad and miserabe curtain twitching lives affected.

45% youth unemployment now, college fees remained the same despite many actually not being allowed to attend, that's an outrage in itself, but who cares, its only some students. A student with no hope of a job because retail and hospitality have all but disappeared. What did the government do for them? They decided to give them back €250 from their mandatory €3000 college registration fee. An absolute insult to them.

We have our beloved Gardai on the roads every single day taking cars of L plate drivers, mostly young people heading to work or college. The backlog for a driving test in this country is now 8 months. Outrage? No, doesn't affect the majority over 25 so cares.

Sport is a great for the head, I play myself, of course many are young and sport is a massive part of school, college and work life in this country. That's gone too for the vast majority. Of course on the main Covid thread on here, Twitter and probably Facebook people were outraged that GAA was allowed continue for the elite. Ban it, disgrace, "I can't get my hair done but Paddy can play a bogball match". Absolute selfish pricks at every turn. "If I can't do this, they can't do that".

I remember on the main Covid thread, a poster took the time to stop his car, take out his phone and take a picture of a group of students standing outside talking, he then put it on here. "no wonder we're fcuked" or some other crap along with the picture. Couldn't believe someone would stoop so low.

We are nearing month 9 of this now and I've learned lots of things about our country during it all. One that has shocked me is how little respect we show our youth, our future.

The very ones who will pick up the tab for this mess.

brisan · 17-11-2020 01:22PM

hmmm wrote: »

Perhaps we could get back closer to the topic.

If I was to predict where we will (optimistically) be with restrictions over the next while, it would be:

1. We're going to have 3 relatively effective vaccines (maybe very effective) by year end, with J&J to follow in the New Year. That means limited supply at the beginning of year, but plenty of supply mid-year.
2. The country will stay at Level 5 until December, when it will go to Level 3 (but with no or very limited indoor dining/pubs).
3. Household restrictions will be partially lifted for Christmas week.
4. Emergency use for vaccines will be approved by end of December, and they will start being given to Health-care workers first, and then the highly vulnerable groups e.g. nursing home patients & staff.
5. Level 3 to continue until at least March. Another Covid wave will be building at that time.
6. We're going to be in a race from March to June between the new wave and deploying vaccines. Hopefully the vaccines win the race and the wave subsides. If not, we will need a short and final Level 5 lockdown around the end of March/beginning of April, helped by closing schools for a little while.
7. As we head into Spring/Summer where it is easier for people to go outside, and as vaccines become more widespread, we'll step back down monthly from Level 3 to 2 & then 1 . Pubs & restaurants reopen but still with some social distancing. People will book holidays and some destinations will require either a vaccination cert or a negative test at the airport to travel.
8. By end of June we'll be seeing sparodic outbreaks which can largely be managed by track & trace. Close contacts & their contacts will be recommended the vaccine if they haven't taken it already.
9. For the second half of 2021 it'll still be recommended to wear masks when indoors, and there might be some limits on the numbers who can be indoors (e.g. weddings, pubs, nightclubs). Covid will no longer be the first item on the news. Most restaurants & pubs operating as normal with limits on numbers which won't affect most.
10. Christmas 2021 we'll be fully back to normal.

Wishful thinking
2021 will be a washout with rolling lockdowns of various levels ,tourism decimated ,aviation decimated and the domestic retail and hospitality industry struggling to survive
Life support will have to be maintained and the worry of how to pay for it all put on the back burner
Rents will continue to be unpaid ,mortgages will continue to go unserviced and it will be 2022 before we come up for air

brisan · 17-11-2020 01:24PM

rob316 wrote: »

I was reading about Prof Lambert sending that letter to government yesterday and I wanted to see who actually sits on NPHET.
Is this a joke? Where are the scientists and epidemiologists? It seems to be just GP's and HSE management.

I've highlighted two members who might actually have experience in pandemics and viruses.

When was the last pandemic
Everybody is reading off the history books and the models ,nobody has any experience

FintanMcluskey · 17-11-2020 01:25PM

rob316 wrote: »

I was reading about Prof Lambert sending that letter to government yesterday and I wanted to see who actually sits on NPHET.
Is this a joke? Where are the scientists and epidemiologists? It seems to be just GP's and HSE management.

I've highlighted two members who might actually have experience in pandemics and viruses.

The number of HSE goons answers some questions about the lack of transparency in NPHET.

Not a hope of a tribunal on the issue of gross incompetence within the HSE and its failure to increase ICU capacity in 8 months.

NPHET is essentially a HSE PR team. A very effective one I must add

Thierry12 · 17-11-2020 01:30PM

dalyboy wrote: »

Is that not 50 deaths per day based on a CFR of 0.5% (on 10,000 cases) not 500?

Exactly

Get's even more ridiculous

100,000 cases a day needed to get 500 deaths

What's the R Naught of 100,000 infections a day in Mid Feb to get 500 deaths in Mid March

Italy had 5,000 infections a day in mid Jan to and it doubled every week to get to 100,000 in Mid Feb

5,000, 10,000, 20,000, 40,000, 80,000

?

Captain_Crash · 17-11-2020 01:33PM

brisan wrote: »

When was the last pandemic
Everybody is reading off the history books and the models ,nobody has any experience

H1N1 in 2018... which resulted in more excess deaths here than Covid will. I firmly believe if Social Media didn't exist in the way it does today, we wouldn't be in this mess.

JRant · 17-11-2020 01:34PM

Lundstram wrote: »

What really pisses me off is the fact we had on the news, yes on our useless national TV channel, RTE, a group of clowns in Ballina, Mayo out celebrating "their own" Joe Biden's victory on the street drinking Champagne, very little social distancing. Not a word said or eye-lid batted but outrage, outrage, outrage at a group of granny killing young people drinking in Dublin at the weekend.

We had it back in the summer with the BLM protests, thousands there. Not a word about that. But more outrage at a bar in Dublin which was attended by about 40 people. Talk of removing licences forever and all that bullsh1t.

It shocks me how we talk about and treat young people in this country during this pandemic and I'm neither under 25 or have children. They have been hit the hardest in terms of restrictions and they will be paying for this for years to come. The dickheads moralising about them on Facebook on Twitter no doubt have hardly had their already sad and miserabe curtain twitching lives affected.

45% youth unemployment now, college fees remained the same despite many actually not being allowed to attend, that's an outrage in itself, but who cares, its only some students. A student with no hope of a job because retail and hospitality have all but disappeared. What did the government do for them? They decided to give them back €250 from their mandatory €3000 college registration fee. An absolute insult to them.

We have our beloved Gardai on the roads every single day taking cars of L plate drivers, mostly young people heading to work or college. The backlog for a driving test in this country is now 8 months. Outrage? No, doesn't affect the majority over 25 so cares.

Sport is a great for the head, I play myself, of course many are young and sport is a massive part of school, college and work life in this country. That's gone too for the vast majority. Of course on the main Covid thread on here, Twitter and probably Facebook people were outraged that GAA was allowed continue for the elite. Ban it, disgrace, "I can't get my hair done but Paddy can play a bogball match". Absolute selfish pricks at every turn. "If I can't do this, they can't do that".

I remember on the main Covid thread, a poster took the time to stop his car, take out his phone and take a picture of a group of students standing outside talking, he then put it on here. "no wonder we're fcuked" or some other crap along with the picture. Couldn't believe someone would stoop so low.

We are nearing month 9 of this now and I've learned lots of things about our country during it all. One that has shocked me is how little respect we show our youth, our future.

The very ones who will pick up the tab for this mess.

That's been going on long before COVID arrived into town. Just look at the terms and conditions of anyone who joined the workforce in the last 10/15 years. The previous generation pulled the ladder up after them and couldn't give a shiny shïte how it affects the younger generation.

rob316 · 17-11-2020 01:34PM

brisan wrote: »

When was the last pandemic
Everybody is reading off the history books and the models ,nobody has any experience

I suppose pandemic is the wrong term, epidemics I mean. There isn't a single epidemiologist on NPHET.

Tony is a GP, why isn't a scientist chairing this? Does anyone question what is Tony Holohan's experience and background with infectious diseases?

zf0wqv9oemuasj · 17-11-2020 01:35PM

hynesie08 wrote: »

I mean, technically They didn't increase tax rates after the last recession,

Hi, my usc rate is about 3% (overall when averaged across the different bands). But the tax free cut off is for the higher rate has increased among other things so taxes are not higher now than before. I actually pay very little tax due to my wife being on extend maternity leave and I use all her tax credits. I don't know the relevance of the nox change here or what you mean, I know this was increased alright but that mostly applies to those importing older diesel cars from the UK so its not really a general tax and so on.

Seweryn · 17-11-2020 01:36PM

Captain_Crash wrote: »

H1N1 in 2018... which resulted in more excess deaths here than Covid will. I firmly believe if Social Media didn't exist in the way it does today, we wouldn't be in this mess.

Looking at the real numbers, we would struggle to acknowledge the existence of this new Cov. thing if we weren't told so loud about it. Our life this year would be more less normal as ever.

facehugger99 · 17-11-2020 01:38PM

rob316 wrote: »

I was reading about Prof Lambert sending that letter to government yesterday and I wanted to see who actually sits on NPHET.
Is this a joke? Where are the scientists and epidemiologists? It seems to be just GP's and HSE management.

.

Why was it decided that this committee need 40 people on it and all of them essentially the same profession?
Where are the economists and business representatives?

It's a fcuking joke that Holohan and 39 nodding dogs, all pulling down a public salary, have been handed the reigns of power by our cowardly politicians. They have absolutely destroyed this country and imposed inter-generational debt that will probably never be paid back.

BeefeaterHat · 17-11-2020 01:41PM

rob316 wrote: »

I suppose pandemic is the wrong term, epidemics I mean. There isn't a single epidemiologist on NPHET.

Tony is a GP, why isn't a scientist chairing this? Does anyone question what is Tony Holohan's experience and background with infectious diseases?

Tony probably went to the same college as this one or that one or is golf buddies with that fella so that's how he is where he is. Jobs for the boys, it's the Irish way.

JRant · 17-11-2020 01:41PM

Seweryn wrote: »

Looking at the real numbers, we would struggle to acknowledge the existence of this new Cov. thing if we weren't told so loud about it. Our life this year would be more less normal as ever.

Come on now. Everyone knows lockdown saved at least 1 million lives here and the economy is actually doing better now than before. Sure it's all free money.

BeefeaterHat · 17-11-2020 01:45PM

JRant wrote: »

Come on now. Everyone knows lockdown saved at least 1 million lives here and the economy is actually doing better now than before. Sure it's all free money.

And everyone's just raring to spend that money. Not sure where's going to be left for them to spend it but they're raring to.

JRant · 17-11-2020 01:46PM

facehugger99 wrote: »

Why was it decided that this committee need 40 people on it and all of them essentially the same profession?
Where are the economists and business representatives?

It's a fcuking joke that Holohan and 39 nodding dogs, all pulling down a public salary, have been handed the reigns of power by our cowardly politicians. They have absolutely destroyed this country and imposed inter-generational debt that will probably never be paid back.

What's even more incredulous is that in a committee of 40 people there is no dissenting voices. From reading some of the meeting notes you swear it was a one person discussion. No objections are noted, nothing. I find that impossible to believe and can't understand why nobody has called them out on that yet. You wouldn't get 40 people to agree on what to have for lunch yet we are supposed to believe they all agree with every decision.

JRant · 17-11-2020 01:48PM

BeefeaterHat wrote: »

Tony probably went to the same college as this one or that one or is golf buddies with that fella so that's how he is where he is. Jobs for the boys, it's the Irish way.

Brass neck - check
PhD in deflection - check
Masters in avoiding blame - check
Smug - check

Tony hits all the major KPI's for the role.

MelbourneMan · 17-11-2020 01:50PM

brisan wrote: »

Wishful thinking
2021 will be a washout with rolling lockdowns of various levels ,tourism decimated ,aviation decimated and the domestic retail and hospitality industry struggling to survive
Life support will have to be maintained and the worry of how to pay for it all put on the back burner
Rents will continue to be unpaid ,mortgages will continue to go unserviced and it will be 2021 before we come up for air

This is not wishful thinking. Rolling lockouts can be avoided by pitching the level of restrictions correctly.

We can avoid future L5 type restrictions by designing a variant L3 that will maintain an R0 at or slightly below 1. Relaxations of that will than happen through the course of the year according to the vaccine rollout programme.

This is now the plan. It will enable the producing sectors of the economy to avoid future closures, schools to remain open, and limited travel and small group social activities to resume in due course.

bucketybuck · 17-11-2020 01:54PM

MelbourneMan wrote: »

We can avoid future L5 type restrictions by designing a variant L3 that will maintain an R0 at or slightly below 1. Relaxations of that will than happen through the course of the year according to the vaccine rollout programme.

This is now the plan.

Why are you still pretending to be somebody who makes those decisions?

brisan · 17-11-2020 01:55PM

Waylon Petite Shower wrote: »

Hi, my usc rate is about 3% (overall when averaged across the different bands). But the tax free cut off is for the higher rate has increased among other things so taxes are not higher now than before. I actually pay very little tax due to my wife being on extend maternity leave and I use all her tax credits. I don't know the relevance of the nox change here or what you mean, I know this was increased alright but that mostly applies to those importing older diesel cars from the UK so its not really a general tax and so on.

they also done away with the upper limit on PRSI which cost a lot of people a lot of money

rob316 · 17-11-2020 02:01PM

JRant wrote: »

What's even more incredulous is that in a committee of 40 people there is no dissenting voices. From reading some of the meeting notes you swear it was a one person discussion. No objections are noted, nothing. I find that impossible to believe and can't understand why nobody has called them out on that yet. You wouldn't get 40 people to agree on what to have for lunch yet we are supposed to believe they all agree with every decision.

And worse of all these are all the people at the HSE and DOH responsible for running our health service and have abysmally failed. Not a public figure head like the minister of health, the people who actually make the day to day decisions. Its frightening.

the kelt · 17-11-2020 02:23PM

To be fair they are very clever in how they throw out the distractions.

30 people drinking in dublin over the weekend, thats all thats being talked about not a traceable cluster or case from it according to NPHET but when thats out there people will continue to be told, look over there, thats why we are here, just them, nothing else, all their fault!!

Which means the other questions dont get asked or talked about, the more important and relevant stuff like the not fit for purpose test and trace or the lack of ICU capacity which in the bigger picture is more bloody important.

And the populace continue on as before cos we are more obsessed about what our neighbours are and arent doing than dare question what the powers that be are and arent doing!

wakka12 · 17-11-2020 02:37PM

Thierry12 wrote: »

Covid hid here and in Europe all summer and just popped up in October to be noticed

Many died of severe pneumonia in Italy last winter, alot, maybe do a bit of research before debunking stuff

Covid went months unchecked from July until Oct till we got deaths

Sound familiar?

If it was highly contagious, a level 3 closing restaurants here in banana republic wouldnt have halted it

I'll call Michael Bay and tell him how to halt a pandemic in his next blockbuster

Close indoor dining

That's all

You can keep gyms, schools, offices, everything else opened

A highly contagious virus will stop growing regardless

There are holes in the theory however, analysis of wastewater in major North Italian cities showed no evidence of COVID 19 in the population in September 2019

facehugger99 · 17-11-2020 02:40PM

the kelt wrote: »

To be fair they are very clever in how they throw out the distractions.

30 people drinking in dublin over the weekend, thats all thats being talked about not a traceable cluster or case from it according to NPHET but when thats out there people will continue to be told, look over there, thats why we are here, just them, nothing else, all their fault!!

Which means the other questions dont get asked or talked about, the more important and relevant stuff like the not fit for purpose test and trace or the lack of ICU capacity which in the bigger picture is more bloody important.

And the populace continue on as before cos we are more obsessed about what our neighbours are and arent doing than dare question what the powers that be are and arent doing!

I fully agree. It's so blatantly obvious the deflection tactics that are being used to avoid any scrutiny of the actual systemic problems in the health service. Even more galling that such unimaginative tactics seem to work on vast swades of the populace.

wakka12 · 17-11-2020 02:40PM

Captain_Crash wrote: »

H1N1 in 2018... which resulted in more excess deaths here than Covid will. I firmly believe if Social Media didn't exist in the way it does today, we wouldn't be in this mess.

Emphasis on 'here', because of our restricitions.

Meanwhile Spain has seen over 60,000 excess deaths since the epidemic began in late March, the equivalent of 6500 excess deaths here, which I'm sure would not exactly slip under the radar

17-11-2020 02:50PM

Another thing that piss's me off, is the funerals.

There were a few very large Traveller funerals throughout the summer, with people coming over from England. I distinctly remember seeing the guards at the graveyard, just sitting in their cars watching all the Travellers vehicles proceed up through the grave yard.

Tony Holahan, to my knowledge never uttered a peep about them back them. but now hes fukcing concerned about funerals risking progress??

Seweryn · 17-11-2020 02:54PM

wakka12 wrote: »

Meanwhile Spain has seen over 60,000 excess deaths since the epidemic began in late March, the equivalent of 6500 excess deaths here, which I'm sure would not exactly slip under the radar

Excess deaths or deaths tagged as "died with Cov"? That is a major difference.
Our so called excess deaths are also near 2k, but in reality there is a lot less excess deaths in 2020 (a few hundreds at most) if you compare the death numbers to the average in previous years.

Relaxation of Restrictions, Part VI - **Read OP for Mod Warnings**

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Relaxation of Restrictions, Part VI - Read OP for Mod Warnings