Relaxation of Restrictions, Part VI - **Read OP for Mod Warnings**

charlie14 wrote: »

hHe mortality rate for the first wave is simple mathematics.

Eight weeks or thereabouts after new confirmed cases have dropped to virtually zero, you know the ratio of deaths compared to confirmed cases. Eight weeks roughly being the time lag between infections and total deaths.



We are now in a second wave where there is no way of determining with any degree of accuracy what that ratio is until we are again in the same position as we were when calculating the ratio for the first wave.

Are you saying you believe the number of reported cases represents all cases in the country ?

Cyrus wrote: »

Are you saying you believe the number of reported cases represents all cases in the country ?

I have been over this with you so many times it has lost it`s comedy value at this stage.
If you have data to contradict mine, then post it.

I've no way of proving this, but I suspect there are at least one or two specific people involved in public health who will be reluctant to relinquish their public profile and return to civil service anonymity. The rest of us should demand that the state moves mountains to get those needles into people's arms as quickly as possible, as a national priority.

JRant wrote: »

Look, if you don't want to engage in honest conversation and instead are happy to soapbox that's your prerogative. I want no part of it so good luck.

I have no problem engaging in honest conversation with you, but there was little point in getting into the rest of your hypothesis on how you believe we should be dealing with this epidemic when your opening line was stop testing healthy people without knowing if these healthy people also included those asymptomatic or presymptomatic.

Without knowing that attempting to do any analysis of the rest of your proposed solution would be pointless.

Cyrus wrote: »

There’s comedy here alright ,

Simple yes or no will suffice .

Yes or no to what.

A figure you can only guess at because there is no way to determine what any given days confirmed cases will result in future deaths ?


Are you being deliberately obtuse or do you just somehow not understand that a particular day`s confirmed cases have nothing to do with that day`s deaths.

CalamariFritti wrote: »

I know I should give up at this stage. Lets try it with simple logic.

He knows damn well what your point is, he just doesn't want to acknowledge it. I don't know why this is going on page after page when it is just one guy and everybody else already knows he is wrong.

charlie14 wrote: »

I have no problem engaging in honest conversation with you, but there was little point in getting into the rest of your hypothesis on how you believe we should be dealing with this epidemic when your opening line was stop testing healthy people without knowing if these healthy people also included those asymptomatic or presymptomatic.

Without knowing that attempting to do any analysis of the rest of your proposed solution would be pointless.

Why don't you try rereading what I wrote again?

I specifically said health people WITH no clinical diagnosis. Until this virus you would have needed to present to a doctor with symptoms, receive a diagnosis and then have a test to confirm. That's how we've done medical services for a long time. Now, you don't need step 1 or 2, just straight to a test and you become a meaningless statistic.

This is particularly gauling when you consider that WHO says the IFR for this is around half that of the flu for those under 65. It's an incredible waste of resources.

Anyway, I really am out this time. Go have that argument with yourself.

CalamariFritti wrote: »

I know I should give up at this stage. Lets try it with simple logic.

There are a) confirmed cases/infections and there are b) actual cases/infections.

b has to be greater or equal to a. It cannot be smaller. (Well in theory it could but lets not go there)
Will you agree that we will not have caught every single infected?
Will you agree that therefore b has to be greater than a?

You are attempting to come up with a figure on confirmed cases based on nothing but guesswork whereas I have provided you with statistics. Not just for here, Sweden, and various other countries, but also worldwide.

I could as easily counter your guesswork by playing the same game. Guessing without anything to back it up that there are a greater number of deaths than are being reported.
That would equate to there then being two of us guessing in a land of the blind.

MelbourneMan wrote: »

Hello. This is correct. NPHET’s Terms of Reference include overseeing and providing direction, directing the collection and analysis of required data, directing communications at local, regional and national level and evaluating the readiness of Ireland’s health service to manage Covid-19. Executive powers rest with the cabinet who as well as the NPHET briefings, take a wider view of economic and social priorities into consideration.

Seems they failed miserably on the health services aspect.

Deleted User wrote: »

What alternative facts or other nonsense are you on about now???

You just admitted yourself that there may be a tribunal...

Doesn’t look good for the CMO when he publically criticises nursing homes banning visitors and then lots of deaths occur in those same nursing homes.

Doesn’t look good that most of Europe were reopen all summer while we remained closed.

If the election earlier this year as shown us anything , it is that the public are sick of your so called “authorities “.

we weren't closed.
only the non-food serving pubs and a couple of other industries where the demand has dried up temporarily were closed, everything else was open.
the public aren't sick of my authorities, i didn't even vote for this government.
however the main political parties generally support the approach we are taking so yes the public did more or less vote for it.

Deleted User wrote: »

I’d say they are all raging. No more late late show or other media appearances.

Maybe we’ll get a NPHET tell all book one day.

or most likely they will be delighted once this is over, they will be able to get back to normal business rather then having to manage the country through a pandemic and the responsibilities that brings.
i certainly don't envy them nor would i want to be them.

Its getting close to a good time for reopening of the bookie shops red.blue,green, independents. All punters I saw were generally good about hand hygiene, mask wearing, social distancing and not sharing pens. Fingers crossed that 3rd wave/lockdown doesnt correspond with Cheltenham 2021 or glasto 2021...
I also think that all takeawy cafes,pubs, essentialshops, shopping centres etc that remain open during level * should let consumers use their WCs. I had a few pints at weekend and my poor bladder was under pressure.