Relaxation of Restrictions, Part VI - **Read OP for Mod Warnings**

charlie14

JRant wrote: »

Again, your 3% is based on the massive assumption that those people died from COVID, which is a massive leap to make.

Anyway, how do we protect those most vulnerable. Well for a start we stop testing healthy people that have no clinical diagnosis and instead target our limited testing capabilities on nursing and care homes for staff and residents. We should also greatly increase the cleaning regimes in those facilities and have screening for families who want to visit their lives ones. Lest we forget most people only spend a year or two in nursing homes before passing. To deprive them of family is a cruel thing to do.

For the at risk group in the community, have dedicated home delivery programs for groceries and additional support mechanisms if the person chooses. Remembering that these people over 65 are as much entitled to determine what level of risk is acceptable to them as the rest of us.

In fact, we need to stop this infantilism of the population and let people get back to the business of living their lives with as little government interference as they see fit.

We can't, as a society, protect everyone and to think we can do that by locking down the entire population is a level of hubris never before seen.

Again totally incorrect.

I am basing the 3% for Ireland, the 6% for Sweden, (more than likely a very conservative number there for various reasons), or any number of countries you wish to mention on the data from those countries own health authorities on confirmed cases of Covid-19 and those they have certified as having passed due to Covid-19.


Before we go anywhere else with this perhaps best if we clear up who these "health people" we should stop testing.
Do these health people include asymptomatics and presymptomatics who can infect others up to three days before they even realise they themselves are not as healthy as they believed. ?

Cyrus

charlie14 wrote: »

By the everyone else I presume you mean everyone else that is stabbing a guess at the ratio of deaths to confirmed cases based on the by now very discredited method of modelling, rather than the actual statistics.

Your statistic is deaths per confirmed cases, i would argue that confirmed cases is grossly understated.

CruelSummer

NPHET out already putting a damper on the vaccine news at their press conference. They don’t sound very prepared for a mass vaccination roll out either. Is this going to be the case once again where we watch citizens in our neighbouring countries return to normal long before us due to a lack of planning, organising or forward thinking...
And this despite NPHET clearly stating their strategy was bide time until the vaccine arrives...

retro:electro

Lots of positive news today concerning cases and a vaccine and of course grim reaper Tony is in his usual form of doom and gloom. I understand trying to be sensible and cautious but god he’d turn milk sour. He literally gives us nothing to look forward to, only negativity and more scaremongering

charlie14

Cyrus wrote: »

Your statistic is deaths per confirmed cases, i would argue that confirmed cases is grossly understated.

You could and it could be a very convincing arguement in relation to the ratio of deaths to confirmed cases if you had actual statistics to back it up.
Without that it is guesswork

CalamariFritti

charlie14 wrote: »

You could and it could be a very convincing arguement in relation to the ratio of deaths to confirmed cases if you had actual statistics to back it up.
Without that it is guesswork

So just to be clear. Do you think that the 3% officially recorded in the first wave resembles the true number? Or do you just go with it because you know its 'official'?

Cyrus

charlie14 wrote: »

You could and it could be a very convincing arguement in relation to the ratio of deaths to confirmed cases if you had actual statistics to back it up.
Without that it is guesswork

Well given you are so respectful of our testing and reported numbers what’s the current positivity rate in testing ? Around 6 percent I think.

Let’s apply that to the population at large.

Total cases circa 300,000 therefore a 0.65% mortality rate, sound closer ?

_Kaiser_

retro:electro wrote: »

Lots of positive news today concerning cases and a vaccine and of course grim reaper Tony is in his usual form of doom and gloom. I understand trying to be sensible and cautious but god he’d turn milk sour. He literally gives us nothing to look forward to, only negativity and more scaremongering

It won't matter much longer what he thinks. Events are overtaking him as more people are more sick of him and NPHET crying Wolf every day than they are ever likely to be from CV-19.

If the vaccine turns out to be a game-changer and successfully deployed elsewhere in Europe, public pressure on the Government and HSE to get it underway here will surge rapidly.

Don't Chute!

The year was 2040. Two decades after the “deadly” corona virus. Two decades after the Pfizer vaccine allowed the world to get back to normal. People barely remembered this awful hysterical time as they happily went about their lives.

Meanwhile in Ireland Grand-Supreme-Emperor Holohan was “very concerned” saying, “the next decade is crucial, if you peasants behave we may be able to have Christmas in 2050, maybe”

CruelSummer

CruelSummer wrote: »

NPHET out already putting a damper on the vaccine news at their press conference. They don’t sound very prepared for a mass vaccination roll out either. Is this going to be the case once again where we watch citizens in our neighbouring countries return to normal long before us due to a lack of planning, organising or forward thinking...
And this despite NPHET clearly stating their strategy was bide time until the vaccine arrives...

It really is disgraceful. I can’t believe he is still on TV spreading all the negative nonsense.

They’ll probably try make a hero of him after all of this.

A man who tried to cover up the cervical scandal and whose only solution to Covid was putting people out of work and placing extreme hardship on citizens.

I hope there will be Tribunals after this.

Dr. Bre

Don't Chute! wrote: »

The year was 2040. Two decades after the “deadly” corona virus. Two decades after the Pfizer vaccine allowed the world to get back to normal. People barely remembered this awful hysterical time as they happily went about their lives.

Meanwhile in Ireland Grand-Supreme-Emperor Holohan was “very concerned” saying, “the next decade is crucial, if you peasants behave we may be able to have Christmas in 2050, maybe”

The next 2 decades you mean

charlie14

retro:electro wrote: »

Lots of positive news today concerning cases and a vaccine and of course grim reaper Tony is in his usual form of doom and gloom. I understand trying to be sensible and cautious but god he’d turn milk sour. He literally gives us nothing to look forward to, only negativity and more scaremongering

Good to see somebody on this thread that can appreciate positive news regarding cases and vaccine. Makes a pleasant change from the bitching and moaning by some on everything under the sun moon and stars.
I may be incorrect, but I do not think NPHET will have much if any involvement in a vaccine rollout. That will be I imagine up to the HSE.
I can understand why with numbers going the right way, which is NPHET`s primary concern they are not giving much mention to vaccine rollout next year.

If they did this thread would be flooded straight away with "open up everything this minute"

The Irish government need to stand up Holohan's resolutely negative outlook and restore hundreds of thousands of jobs in December. Imagine a long-suffering publican listening to that blasé dismissal of their livelihoods. Tony the untouchable aware of his malign influence, and wielding it ruthlessly. Criminal.

end of the road

Deleted User wrote: »

It really is disgraceful. I can’t believe he is still on TV spreading all the negative nonsense.

They’ll probably try make a hero of him after all of this.

A man who tried to cover up the cervical scandal and whose only solution to Covid was putting people out of work and placing extreme hardship on citizens.

I hope there will be Tribunals after this.

the only possible tribunal might be in relation to the nursing homes but that's yer lot.
lock down and restrictions were practiced by most countries and there were job losses, we were in no way the only country to experience job losses.
anyway quite right that tony is telling people to be cautious about the vaccine while recognising today's developments are good news.
suck it up and get over it that your alternative facts will never be listened to by anyone in authority.

Cyrus

charlie14 wrote: »

Good to see somebody on this thread that can appreciate positive news regarding cases and vaccine. Makes a pleasant change from the bitching and moaning by some on everything under the sun moon and stars.
I may be incorrect, but I do not think NPHET will have much if any involvement in a vaccine rollout. That will be I imagine up to the HSE.
I can understand why with numbers going the right way, which is NPHET`s primary concern they are not giving much mention to vaccine rollout next year.

If they did this thread would be flooded straight away with "open up everything this minute"

Nphet aren’t supposed to be managing the response to a pandemic either yet here we are.

Chalk McHugh

I see the cases are well down today. Hopefully they will reduce further in coming weeks. So what is the best we can hope for on Dec 1 when this six week lockdown is over? Have Nphet and the government beaten us into submission? Have they broken our spirit?

charlie14

Johnboy1951 wrote: »

I see no grounds to suppose the rest of those will follow the same 'path' as the first 94.

The manufacturer is also not making any claims that they will as they draw attention to the small sample number and no conclusion is being drawn as to its effectiveness overall.

With respect that statement makes very little logical sense.
All those in the test group are getting the same vaccine, so why would it greatly change the percentage for all the rest in the group compared to the first 94 that received it.

AUDI20

I see the anti Holohan/NPHET brigade are out in force, and I tought it was the Government who agreed too and applied the restrictions !!

end of the road

charlie14 wrote: »

Good to see somebody on this thread that can appreciate positive news regarding cases and vaccine. Makes a pleasant change from the bitching and moaning by some on everything under the sun moon and stars.
I may be incorrect, but I do not think NPHET will have much if any involvement in a vaccine rollout. That will be I imagine up to the HSE.
I can understand why with numbers going the right way, which is NPHET`s primary concern they are not giving much mention to vaccine rollout next year.

If they did this thread would be flooded straight away with "open up everything this minute"

i would agree with this.
good news but one should not get over excited just yet about the vaccine, still a little bit to go apparently.

charlie14

Cyrus wrote: »

Nphet aren’t supposed to be managing the response to a pandemic either yet here we are.

Indeed we are.With numbers dropping daily.

Don't Chute!

I’d like to state for the record here that I am most definitely NOT anti-vaccine. I dearly hope that the news today turns out to be true. The only downside being Holohoop and co will see this as some sort of victory and of course the public will lap it up.

Cyrus

charlie14 wrote: »

Indeed we are.With numbers dropping daily.

So do you agree with my calculations regarding the mortality rate ?

charlie14

CalamariFritti wrote: »

So just to be clear. Do you think that the 3% officially recorded in the first wave resembles the true number? Or do you just go with it because you know its 'official'?

I get 3% for Ireland from the actual figures. Which are practically the same as those provided by health authorities as a total worldwide of the ratio of deaths to confirmed cases.
It`s nothing to do with what I think or what other guess or presume. It`s simply mathematics.

end of the road

end of the road wrote: »

the only possible tribunal might be in relation to the nursing homes but that's yer lot.
lock down and restrictions were practiced by most countries and there were job losses, we were in no way the only country to experience job losses.
anyway quite right that tony is telling people to be cautious about the vaccine while recognising today's developments are good news.
suck it up and get over it that your alternative facts will never be listened to by anyone in authority.

What alternative facts or other nonsense are you on about now???

You just admitted yourself that there may be a tribunal...

Doesn’t look good for the CMO when he publically criticises nursing homes banning visitors and then lots of deaths occur in those same nursing homes.

Doesn’t look good that most of Europe were reopen all summer while we remained closed.

If the election earlier this year as shown us anything , it is that the public are sick of your so called “authorities “.

CruelSummer

charlie14 wrote: »

Good to see somebody on this thread that can appreciate positive news regarding cases and vaccine. Makes a pleasant change from the bitching and moaning by some on everything under the sun moon and stars.
I may be incorrect, but I do not think NPHET will have much if any involvement in a vaccine rollout. That will be I imagine up to the HSE.
I can understand why with numbers going the right way, which is NPHET`s primary concern they are not giving much mention to vaccine rollout next year.

If they did this thread would be flooded straight away with "open up everything this minute"

I think you’re blaming the wrong people in this case. I watched parts of the conference. I agree with Dr Holohan, that it’s a press release & they need to study the information + data when it emerges. However they could be a bit more upbeat re lower case numbers, and the possibility that there could be a vaccine breakthrough on the horizon.
I’ll admit the pessimist in me thinks the mink might scupper this yet...

FintanMcluskey

CruelSummer wrote: »

NPHET out already putting a damper on the vaccine news at their press conference. They don’t sound very prepared for a mass vaccination roll out either. Is this going to be the case once again where we watch citizens in our neighbouring countries return to normal long before us due to a lack of planning, organising or forward thinking...
And this despite NPHET clearly stating their strategy was bide time until the vaccine arrives...

The biggest road block to vaccine roll out in Ireland is the HSE.

Best option is get vaccinated up the north, come back down and sit waiting for Tony’s approval to go out and play

charlie14

Cyrus wrote: »

So do you agree with my calculations regarding the mortality rate ?

hHe mortality rate for the first wave is simple mathematics.

Eight weeks or thereabouts after new confirmed cases have dropped to virtually zero, you know the ratio of deaths compared to confirmed cases. Eight weeks roughly being the time lag between infections and total deaths.



We are now in a second wave where there is no way of determining with any degree of accuracy what that ratio is until we are again in the same position as we were when calculating the ratio for the first wave.

charlie14

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

The biggest road block to vaccine roll out in Ireland is the HSE.

Best option is get vaccinated up the north, come back down and sit waiting for Tony’s approval to go out and play

Yeah, Northern Ireland are doing such a sterling job right now that makes sense alright :rolleyes:

Lundstram

We've an army of a 7,000 people in this country who do very little, use them to get this fcuking show on the road. Over a thousand GAA venues. This is not rocket science.

Hopefully the likes of Holohan, McConkey and George Lee disappear for all eternity by next Spring. Three charlatans.

JRant

charlie14 wrote: »

Again totally incorrect.

I am basing the 3% for Ireland, the 6% for Sweden, (more than likely a very conservative number there for various reasons), or any number of countries you wish to mention on the data from those countries own health authorities on confirmed cases of Covid-19 and those they have certified as having passed due to Covid-19.


Before we go anywhere else with this perhaps best if we clear up who these "health people" we should stop testing.
Do these health people include asymptomatics and presymptomatics who can infect others up to three days before they even realise they themselves are not as healthy as they believed. ?

Look, if you don't want to engage in honest conversation and instead are happy to soapbox that's your prerogative. I want no part of it so good luck.